Westministenders: Theresa's Common People

[RedToothBrush]

She came from Oxfordshire she had a thirst for knowledge
She studied geography at Saint Hugh's College
That's where politics
Caught her eye

She told them that her husband was loaded
The press barons said "In that case have a rum and coca-cola"
She said "Fine"
And in thirty seconds time she said

I want to look like common people
I want to do whatever common people do
I want to eat like common people
I want to sleep like common people
Like you

Well what else could Fiona and Nick do
They said "We'll see what we can do"

They took her to a supermarket
I don't know why
But they had to start it somewhere
So it started there
They said pretend you've got no money
She just laughed and said
"Oh you're so funny"
They smiled "Yeah”
Well we can't see anyone else smiling in here

Are you sure you want to live like common people
You want to see whatever common people see
You want to eat like common people
You want to sleep like common people
Like me

But she didn't understand
She just smiled and held Trump’s hand

Order that benefits get the chop
Tell them all to get a job
Promise to bring back the grammar school
Pretend you don’t think them a fool
But still you'll never get it right
'Cause when you're laid in bed at night
Watching the news talking about building the wall
All have to do is call your mates to fake it all

You'll never live like common people
You'll never do whatever common people do
You'll never fail like common people
You'll never watch your life slide out of view
Whilst you blame it all on the EU
Because that’s all you can do

Sing along with the common people
Sing along and it might just get Brexit through
Laugh along with the common people
Laugh about leaving the EU

It’s the most stupid thing that you will do
Because you think that it is cool
You’ll call them a ‘lying foreigner’
But don’t say we didn’t warn you
You’ll regret saying we are better off out
'Cause everybody hates a benefits tourist

It doesn’t matter if you can’t do the math
With all those pockets that you grease
You’ll win the vote in Bath

You will never understand
How it feels to live your life
With no meaning or control
And with nowhere left to go
You are amazed that they exist
And wish they were all white
So you tell ‘The Big Lie’

Get THE flat above THE shop
Cut your hair and get THE job
Trick some mugs and hire some fool
Pretend you are not really cruel
But still you'll never get it right
Instead you're plotting late at night
About which ‘cockroach’ will take the fall
All have to do is call your mates to fake it all
Yeah

You'll never live like common people
You'll never do what common people do
You'll never fail like common people
You'll never watch your life slide out of view
As we plan to leave the EU
Because there's nothing else left to do

But ‘moan’ about how we don’t want to leave the EU.

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/dementia-tax-google-adverts-conservatives-stop-reading-policy-controversy-election-2017-manifesto-a7748646.html
Dementia Tax: Conservatives buy Google AdSense to stop people reading about controversy over new policy.

Absolutely. It's funny how voting for Brexit now means losing your life's work to pay for it and leaving your children and grandchildren without the security you tried to build up for them, for many people.

Except they still are not seeing it. And still are voting for it.

I wonder what people would do if they said "Brexit or your house?". Probably the same, stating it's scare tactics.

It's obvious there will be no deal at this juncture.

I wonder when during the next parliament they will start trying to enact the dementia tax.

I just had a Conservative ad pushed at me on Facebook, it can have absolutely nothing to do with my posting history, or that of any of my friends except my father and he is so clueless he wishes happy birthday to people on his own timeline It is a scare tactic with a video of John McDonnell. "Your vote at this election will decide between low taxes for working families with Theresa May and her team - or higher taxes with Jeremy Corbyn.
There’s so much at stake at this election – voting for Jeremy Corbyn is too big a risk to take."

What is the best thing I can do with it to cause maximum damage to their campaign?

Share it with the Electoral Commission, given that the Conservatives aren't letting them see the targeted advertising and therefore judge whether they are complying with electoral law?

Screen shot. I think someone is trying to collect for research but I forget who.

Facebook add can be targeted by area. I think it can either be related to your location somehow being connected to you (or lots of local friends). Or though you having your GPS set through your phone / browser and then matched up with your fb. (Cookies for set location or having entered postcode perhaps).

I'm not sure how it works but it'll be to do with location.c

The EU have had those same 3 principles since the 27 govts agreed their position.
Those haven't changed, except they have publicly hardened their position on the final bill

The UK govt have also kept their red lines: FOM, ECJ and now hardening on the bill too.

I'm sure the bill is where there can be compromise and easy face-saving, e.g. paying to support poorer areas like E & S Europe, but not CAP.

However, unless the UK govt climb down on conditions for a transition period, it is difficult to compromise FOM / none, ECJ / none.

And no one has a clue, including RoI govt, how to avoid a hard Irish border, unless the UK joins EEA / EFTA

(Times firewall) May will bash her core vote a bit if it helps her batter Labour

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/election-2017/may-will-bash-her-core-vote-a-bit-if-it-helps-her-batter-labour-qchgn6g3m

"Election manifestos obey the principles of natural selection.
Only the winner matters and gets the chance to breed from its policies in government"

"Beveridge identified five “giant evils” to be overcome:
disease, want, ignorance, squalor and idleness."
< Attlee’s 1945 radical Labour government specifically addressed these >

"The response from successive governments through into the 1950s was impressive if overdue:
the NHS, national insurance, free compulsory secondary schooling to 15, a mass home building and slum clearance and initially low levels of unemployment."

"May was trying some big boots for size when she invoked “the five giant challenges that we face as a country”

“the need for a strong economy, Brexit and a changing world, enduring social divisions, an ageing society, fast-changing technology”.

"She wants the nation to unite behind her
but she is angry with some of it.

The Tory manifesto warns that she will not
“pursue an agenda based on a supposed centre ground defined and established by elites in Westminster

. . . her leadership will be driven not for the benefit of a privileged few but
. . . for people who can just about manage”.

Remarkably, considering that
the party that she leads has been in power for 43 of the 72 years since 1945

May’s manifesto believes:
“These families have been ignored by politicians and by others in positions of power for too long.”

This prime minister has taken up populist language along with the populist cause of Brexit.
That’s why she has retained the elusive target of immigration in the “tens of thousands”,
against the advice of colleagues.

On the one aspect of “cradle to grave” welfare overlooked by Beveridge
because it was less of a necessity then —
long-term care for the elderly and infirm —
the Conservatives propose the state should take less responsibility.

The Tories’ electoral strategy is to take their core vote for granted and hoover up as much of the directionless Ukip vote as possible.

That’s why May is spending so much time in Labour-held seats

This year May is fighting Labour and the Scottish National Party head on.
Her battlefield visits are planned with Darwinian ruthlessness to pick off seats in the Midlands, the north, Scotland, Wales and some metropolitan areas."

"Privately psephologists are talking about more than 70 gains,
propelling May’s new majority past 150.

For such spoils, it is worth bashing the business and grey votes a bit.

They will stay loyal to her “strong and stable” leadership for fear of Corbyn’s “coalition of chaos”.

Treeza's U-turns mid Facebook rant laid out clearly although anyone who things she actually writes these herself is equally deluded

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/theresa-mays-extraordinary-facebook.html?m=1

(Apologies if this has already been posted)

75% of pensioners are home owners. So I would guess if she's going after directionless Kippers it's not the ones who are pensioners in this group. It would suggest it's a pitch for working age Kippers and leavers who perhaps are not reliable voters.

DH has spoken to a would be kipper saying they would rather burn their house down than give it to the state. I guess that's why they are trying to equate social care with Brexit too. Bad thing? Never mind vote Brexit and everything will be fine. Trust us, strong and stable. In almost hypnotic fashion.

The pensioners vote is apparently hardening towards Con but in anyone under 55 the situation seems to have reversed if the polls from the weekend are to be believed. In other words the Dementia tax doesn't seem to be hitting pensioners. Media are not picking up on this as much as they might.

To me that suggests there is movement there but it's not decided yet. May will have to work on that. Important observation though: Older voters tend to be postal voters so more working age people perhaps won't vote until 8th June. So could well work for her yet.

But this is still a gamble because of the way this splits down. It might hit areas which are remain Tory harder. The Brexit hypnosis is less effective and voters already asked to vote against what they see as their interests. The Corbyn thing is potent in areas which are Lab / Con but less so in Tory / LD marginals. Trouble is there isn't that many that fit this description.

The other noticeable thing is people are talking of Corbyn in much more favorable terms than last week. And it's increasing an enthusiasm to vote amongst Labour voters. Corbyn's net approval ratings are now higher than Farron's. There was a chart that was viral that plotted the difference between the approval ratings of the PM and the opposition leader and the size of a majority as having a seemingly clear correlation.

Postal votes go out today and tomorrow. Most vote in 48 hours. So timing and whether she can get back control of this quickly will have an influence in deciding the size of her majority. As I said previously I do think that if there is a reaction to this, it will be more about turnout than switchers. Equally true for 2015 Cons and Kippers.

I do wonder though. Is the IRA thing as potent as it was? Has there been a softening of feeling in recent years - particularly after the referendum following the referendum? The subject has brushed away as a thing of the past a lot lately. Remembering they are trying to grab the middle aged and younger voters over this? I would argue that it makes it about people in a narrow 40 - 55 group at best. I'm younger than that and whilst NI affected me directly, other concerns hugely out weigh that one.

I think that's therefore the one to keep a close eye on for what they do or how they react.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/819e1f56-3e98-11e7-a09b-a4ae022938a6
Only Lib Dems are speaking for the people, say business backers

More than 50 business leaders have backed the Liberal Democrats as the only party which is “speaking for the majority of Britons” by campaigning to stay in the European single market.

Figures including key funders of the Remain campaign warn in a letter to The Times that Britain’s departure from the EU is being run by “hardcore Brexiteers” who have failed to recognise public support for staying in the single market or customs union.

The 53 signatories who say they intend to vote Lib Dem include senior players in the investment and IT sectors, two industries that could be hit by a poor Brexit deal. They represent small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) rather than FTSE 100 companies.

Few observations:

1. this is the times
2. larger companies have the ability to relocate if Brexit goes tits up. Small and medium businesses have less flexibility on that.
3. small and medium businesses make up a significant proportion of UK jobs
4. their ability to lobby is less. Harder for them to influence government
5. these businesses represent a large number of individual business owners. Perhaps who would be most affected by Corbyn with taxation changes most. But they aren't choosing May either.
6. Fiona doesn't like letters.

George Osborne‏ @George_Osborne
U-turn coming on social care. There will be a cap. Read today's @EveningStandard for the details

Altogether now. Raise those eyebrows

This little conversation is worth noting:

Rob Ford‏**@robfordmancs**

Peak "Cleggmania" was at about this point in 2010 campaign, with LDs in 1st place in some polls. Dynamics v diff without leaders' debates
Discussion in last 3 weeks of 2010 was dominated by the debates - who did well, why? how will leaders approach next one? etc etc
is time still plenty of talk on polls and process as always, but (IMO) seems more discussion of policy. Possible upside to no debates?

Chris Hanretty‏*@chrishanretty*
Rival explanation: everyone got a kicking for doing too much horserace journalism last time, in a context when polls were wrong

Will de Freitas‏*@Will*_deF

(perceived) likelihood of a coalition/minority govt also meant more process talk + less policy as assumed it would be negotiated away?

Rob Ford‏**@robfordmancs**
Good point. I think this was even more true in 2015 tbh - in 2010 much of the commentariat didn't seem to believe coalition could happen

(((Paul Pudney)))‏*@PPudney*
true and BBC now has policy of not talking about the polls all the time + Tories left early open to lab=policy and now #dementiatax headline

Personally I think there is something else here too. Since the referendum, there has been a lot more made about the lack of detail and costs. It was expected that the Maynifesto would be short on costings and short on how things would work. That made it an obvious target for a weak point.

Especially if you follow through on how Remainers made decisions over voting; they were less emotional and more rational seeking out 'facts'. They were more likely to be drawn to policy. Labour Remainers therefore always more likely to find it important.

But I think this also does apply to some Leavers more than you think this time round, because of this shifting political landscape. Especially if there are some with fears creeping in. There were left leavers and right leavers - not all leavers were the same.

On top of that, the policies are much more different than they have been in many years so the differences are much more of a talking point.

2) larger companies have the ability to relocate if Brexit goes tits up.

Only if they can take their staff - or the key ones ...
(a) - what conditions will placed on UK citizens working in Europe (I suspect they will be symmetrical with the UKs conditions on EU citizens in the UK) ?
(b) - are these staff willing (and/or able) to relocate into the EU - and EU which probably won't be thrilled to see expat Brits parachuted in to ameliorate Brexit ?

Christopher Hope @christopherhope

"Dementia tax" will not apply to Welsh pensioners. Left hand page is Welsh Tory Manifesto. Right hand is English one

My eyebrows are getting quite the workout.

And another Facebook message, from Theresa herself, getting very annoyed now. plus if you Google dementia tax and click on it the Conservatives have bought an ad in first place, but perhaps in a bit of subversion if you just google it you get a critical Guardian piece :-)

They are really going for the Trump playbook aren't they ?

Press Association‏*@PA*

#Breaking Theresa May announces a cap on social care costs will be included as an option in a consultation on reforms launched after #ge2017

norman smith‏*@BBCNormanS* (BBC)
So..4 days after Tory manifesto announced scrapping planned social care cap - it is now an option for consultation
I was told by ministers Dilnott plan for a cap was regressive and "the wrong solution. "Now its back on the table.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam* (Skynews)
Theresa May: "these are good and sensible plans... but since my manifesto has been published, has been subject to fake claims"
May: Green Paper "will include proposals for an absolute limit on what people have to pay" - that its not what the manifesto briefing said
"An absolute limit" not specified on social care costs, newly announced, but not in manifesto, is attempt to head off "dementia tax" claims

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak (BBC)
Here it comes - 'consultation will include an absolute limit' i.e. A cap, which was not in manifesto last week

Tom McTague‏*@TomMcTague* (Politico)
May announces cap on the cost of care in old age. However: no figure. Good enough?

Kevin Schofield‏*@PolhomeEditor* (Political Home)
That T May U-turn in full: "That consultation will include an absolute limit on the amount people have to pay for their care costs."

Henry Zeffman‏*@hzeffman* (Times)
Theresa May attacks Jeremy Corbyn's "fake claims" about her social care policy. 3 times. Trumpesque?

Kevin Maguire‏*@Kevin*_Maguire (Daily Mirror)
Theresa May killing irony by accusing Corbyn of "fake claims" when she falsely accuses him of wanting to abolish the army...

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton* (New Statesman)
Tories accuse Corbyn of "attempts to manipulate the fears of old and vulnerable people".

Tim Montgomerie @montie (Tory fan boy used to be at the Times I think)
Strong and stable? Not so much.

Peter Dick‏*@pdick10*
Only two people are enjoying politics at the moment: Vlad Putin & George Osborne.

I don't need to quote the Mail do I? Its going to be the same line as May on everything.

LH EU which probably won't be thrilled to see expat Brits parachuted in to ameliorate Brexit

That may very well depend on how many expat Brits descend and how many jobs they will create for EU citizens by moving their business.

Some EU member states offer visas for non EU citizens who will create jobs.

Ian Dunt‏**@IanDunt**

Crick question particularly devastating. May looks quite startled.

Laura Kuenssberg‏****@bbclaurak

May tries to deny she has backtracked, but says she shows she is being 'honest with people'
Whatever you want to call it, the cap on social care was not in the manifesto, altho The 100k 'floor' stays too - so it is additional measure rather than binning the original plan altogether-
A big deal for her to have to 'clarify' - political speak for changing plans under pressure - only four days after manifesto launch
May getting angry 'we have not changed our principles' - but they have changed the details

John Rentoul‏ @JohnRentoul
She'll have to give the figure for the social care cap to @afneil tonight, so why not now? PM ignored @bbclaurak's question.

Stuart Millar‏ @stuartmillar159
"This doesn't look so strong and stable, does it prime minister? It looks like panic in the face of opposition." @bbclaurak goes straight in

Laura Kuenssberg‏****@bbclaurak

Not sure they know yet .....
Haven't seen May this frustrated before in this campaign

Elizabeth Pears‏*@BizPears*

Noooow the election has started. Journalists are giving her a GRILLING over social care/dementia tax plans. Policy not personality politics

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

May: Green Paper "will include proposals for an absolute limit on what people have to pay" - that its not what the manifesto briefing said
Conservative manifesto briefing clearly said "we believe this is fairer and more equitable than ... the cap recommended by Dilnot Report"
Conservative manifesto clearly explains that Dilnot Report proposals - ie the £72k cap - less equitable "within and across the generations"

Google Ads. When you search dementia tax.

LH For the big global players it will be more rearranging the pieces on the chess board, so DH will go to Asia because without passporting they will focus resources on facing Asian markets there, with a link to the EU hub, no need to involve the UK.

Robert Peston‏*@Peston*
So will cap on what we would pay for social care be Dilnot's proposed £35k or the £72k the government was planning to impose, till dropped?

Will Jennings‏*@drjennings*

None of this bodes well for Brexit negotiations...

Natalie herself‏*@angrysigh*

Honestly if Theresa may plays a good hand this fucking badly imagine when she's going up against the EU and her hand is legit nothing

Chris Ship‏*@chrisshipitv*
Not a great moment for Theresa May's closest advisers Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy then ... #dementiatax

Fiona doesn't like journalists...

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*

Tory activist went up to @RobNisbetSky after his question & congratulated him on his tough question re social care, not a fan of s care pol

Tory activists apparently do...

Helen Lewis‏*@helenlewis*

Whenever a politician now says "fake news" it just means "you were negative about something I said or did".

Krishnan Guru-Murthy‏*@krishgm*

"nothing has changed" is worthy of Trump. Simply isn't true. She scrapped the cap on how much people would pay and has now brought it back.

Nick Robinson‏*@bbcnickrobinson*

Quickest election U turn ever ?

British media are NOT impressed.

Jury is now out with the British Public.... I'm betting they will find her not guilty anyway.

Will Jennings‏*@drjennings*

It's still an election about competence (that just took an unexpected turn...)

Harry Cole‏*@MrHarryCole*

PM snaps at @jessicaelgot for saying Dementia Tax: "you're using terms that have been used by the Labour Party to scare people." Swerves Q.

Journos have spent so long being blinded by the uselessness of someone who was never going to lead the country to not notice the uselessness of the person who is actually supposed to be leading it. The quality of our journalism sadly matches that of our politicians on the whole.

And today's Daily Dig from George Osborne is:

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-uturn-on-social-care-is-neither-strong-nor-stable-a3545186.html
Evening Standard comment: U-turn on social care is neither strong nor stable

Key Para:
The current Tory leaders should have been ready to defend their approach. Instead we had a weekend of wobbles that presumably prompted today’s U-turn. The Pensions Secretary Damian Green was unable to answer basic questions in a TV interview about who will lose their fuel payments, and how much extra money will go into social care. Either the Government is prepared to remove these payments from millions of pensioners who are not in poverty, and don’t receive pension credit, and spend their substantial savings on social care; or they chicken out, target the tiny percentage of pensioners who are on higher tax rates, save paltry sums and accept the whole manoeuvre is a gimmick. Certainly, if the savings are to pay for a new care cap, then many pensioners will lose their winter fuel payment. This isn’t for consultation after an election — it’s an issue of honesty before an election.

Oh My. I could cry hysterically with laughter if this wasn't actually real and Theresa May wasn't about to fuck the whole country over with her utter incompetence.

I wonder what anyone watching from Brussels will have thought of this shitstorm!

This is journos getting even after having to endure weeks of dreary orchestrated events and TM's refusal to allow them near her. They are going to enjoy themselves enormously.