Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

I understand "shortterm" economically as the next 2 years and "medium" 5-10 years.
At age 60, that's a big chunk out of my remaining life expectancy, as for a few others here - and many older Leave pensioners.

They have been threatening to split for ages though and have not yet done it. In my view they are not really helping their cause by talking this way before the election. It makes them come across as bitchy and bitter. It would have been much better to keep their mouths shut and get on with it like grown ups until after the election and then have discussions about the future of the party when Corbyn will be weakened by the loss.

Of course this plan does rely on there being all these moderate labour MPs still in place after the election and them being able to organise a piss up in a brewery. As they have completely failed to agree on a credible candidate against Corbyn yet, dispite how unpopular he apparently is, I would be amazed if they could agree on a meeting room let alone form a cohesive group between them.

Out of interest, I looked up the Wikipedia entry for Marxism. (I studied Lenin at Uni as part of Russian History).

I was taken with this paragraph:
"Capitalism (according to Marxist theory) can no longer sustain the living standards of the population due to its need to compensate for falling rates of profitt^ by driving down wages, cutting social benefits and pursuing military aggression. The socialistt^ system would succeed capitalism as humanity's mode of production through workers' revolutionn^. According to Marxism, especially arising from crisis theoryy^, socialismm^ is a historical necessity (but not an inevitability)."

So many parallels with the current real life ie not just theory situation

Anyone might think that May is deliberately trying to provoke a workers' revolution. I'm pretty confident that, either deliberately or inadvertently, that is Corbyn's end game.

Labour's policies are popular, but the Leader isn't. The Tory Leader is popular, but the policies which will be couched in vague terms, won't be. Hmm, fantasy definitely but perhaps Turncoat Theresa could be persuaded to cross the floor?

Given the above story about some MPs wanting to split you have to wonder if it would have been unanimous if it hadn't been leaked.

Labour 'unanimously agrees' on manifesto hours after 'leak'
www.itv.com/news/2017-05-11/labour-unanimously-agrees-on-manifesto-hours-after-leak/

You don't really need Marx, Lenin, or Uncle Tom Cobleigh to understand that growth cannot continue indefinitely, on a finite planet. It really is that simple.

Ultimately, there are too many people on the planet - a situation which suits capitalism perfectly, as it makes an individuals labour worth less.

If the common people really wanted to stick it to the man, they'd stop having children.

Nature always seems to correct itself - the planet will survive. But relatively recent human history records epidemics which devastated continents.

Worth taking a look at this twitter account, Kaija flagged up earlier:

‏ @J_amesp May 6
I've been writing for months, with increasing evidence being uncovered, that Russia is backing the far-right.

@Jamesp @BylineMedia
2013 was the same year Nigel Farage met Russia’s London Ambassador, Alexander Yakovenko - who later met UKIP and Leave.EU donor Arron Banks

‏ @J_amesp May 10
Banks described his contact as being with “the KGB’s man in London” and they held a lengthy discussion about Brexit.

After Farage’s first meeting, UKIP MEPs began to appear with increasing frequency on RT, a Russian state media channel,

@J_amesp May 10
Former UKIP Leader and instrumental Brexit politician Nigel Farage has documented close links to the Trump administration

@J_amesp May 10
He thanked Steve Bannon for his help in making Article 50 a reality. During the same period, he was also seen visiting Ecuadorian embassy.

@J_amesp
And over recent weeks the investigation has gathered pace as things have become more urgent.

What with Comey and all over the pond, this could make the electoral expenses issue look like small fry.

Russian links aren't going away in Washington. Could be the same here.

Bigchoc Speaking as a middle aged person 60 is the new 40 I do not see the, realistically, next 5-10 years of instability due to Brexit if God spares me as my Grandmother used to say as representing anything like the fundamental issue it is for my children. Ten years of instability in your sixties is not as big an issue as ten years of lost economic opportunity in your twenties

J.J. Patrick@J_amesp
The link^

60 is the new 40
I agree as one in the same boat. I expect life to putter on much as it has done for the next ten years or so but probably with less money to go round.

But a new graduate who has had their career opportunities damaged won't be able to benefit if the economy picks up when they are in their forties. Another generation will have come up behind them.

No, I don't recall Leavers talking about short term pain. I do recall a lot of Project Fear statements, and gloating because the economy hasn't tanked yet.

Just watched King Charles III.

Highly recommend. Its about constitutional crisis with some echoes of the present very real issues. Art is always about reflecting present fears afterall.

Also worth noting in the context of stability there is every chance we have the Queen's death to contend with in the next 5 years...

"everyone agrees that Brexit will cost money in the short to medium term, and it is likely to result in instability."

And no-one can say where the long term recovery is going to come from.

CBS News‏ @CBSNews
FBI's McCabe says Russia probe is "highly significant," refuting WH claims of it being a "small" investigation

Bradd Jaffy‏*@BraddJaffy*
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe says ex-director Comey had broad support in the FBI, contradicting White House claims.

Frank Luntz‏*@FrankLuntz*
Seems like acting FBI director Andrew McCabe is daring the White House to fire him.
This followed his comments that the FBI will no longer be updating the White House on its Russia investigation.
Especially after McCabe's Senate testimony right now.

Your move Donald. (I note the Acting bit so he's due to appoint someone to the role. Its how soon and how he goes about doing it, that will be interesting).

I also enjoyed Charles III. I wonder what the real Prince Charles is thinking privately on all this. His own private interests and initiatives with young people, the environment etc., and those of William come to that, do seem to place them at odds with the far right..... and the PM in the play would be more likely to get my support than May in these times when even Cameron, aside from calling the referendum, seems a better alternative. I assume it was written in the Cameron era

No, I don't recall Leavers talking about short term pain.
There were a few on here, though when challenged as to how short term or where they envisaged the turn around to come from there was nothing behind it. That or the lot who figured we'd benefit when the EU collapses. The Netherlands, Austria and France really need to give their heads a wobble and remember they're meant to hate the EU

"everyone agrees that Brexit will cost money in the short to medium term, and it is likely to result in instability."

Is Mark Knopfler a MNetter ...

"The work force is disgusted downs tools and walks
Innocence is injured experience just talks
^Everyone seeks damages and everyone agrees
That these are 'classic symptoms of a monetary squeeze'
On ITV and BBC they talk about the curse
Philosophy is useless theology is worse
History boils over there's an economics freeze
Sociologists invent words that mean 'Industrial Disease'"

A thoughtful article, interviewing the world's last living Nuremberg Prosecutor

"War makes murderers out of otherwise decent people. All wars, and all decent people."

I dare say there are some Leavers who won't like to be reminded. As far as I am concerned, Leavers have to own all the results of Brexit. If things go well, they can take the credit, but similarly, if they go badly, they need to take the blame.

m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/16555566?
Justin Trudeau Won In Canada Through Strategic Voting - It Can Work Here In The UK

He ran a grassroots campaign to get people across the country to vote strategically. He worked with many other groups whose focus was getting out first time voters.

By election day, the combination of giving people belief in the power of their vote and advice on how to vote added 2.7million voters to the election.

Stephen Harper, the sitting Prime Minister, didn’t lose that many votes. What brought progressive parties sweeping into power was new, primarily young voters who joined the electorate. The vote among 18-24 year-olds increased by 18.3% vs the 2011 election, with women in this age group up by 20%.

We can do this in the UK.

Hisham is now advising Best for Britain on how to make a difference in the UK General Election on June 8th.

peterreynolds.wordpress.com/2017/05/07/theresa-may-isnt-strong-shes-cowardly-evasive-and-weak-and-im-a-tory/
Theresa May Isn’t Strong, She’s Cowardly, Evasive And Weak – And I’m A Tory!

Not just an Tory. A Brexit supporting Tory.

www.channel4.com/news/prime-minister-theresa-may-interview-with-gary-gibbon
10 nil to Gary Gibbon.

'If the EU is interfering with British Election', (like Russia in US), asked Gibbon, will May order an enquiry?

Worth watching for the chewing a lemon face she pulls.

Are there any links for helping with people to register to vote, like driving people to polling stations?I'd happily help with that; inspiring Canadian precedent.

I've just watched a UKIP party political broadcast on Channel 4.

It looked like a load of residents of Royston Vasey being filmed on someone's phone.

Election Data‏*@election*_data

No UKIP candidate in @JohnHealey seat of Wentworth & Dearne. They came second with 24.9% in 2015.
No @ukip candidate in Batley & Spen
No UKIP candidate in Birmingham Erdington, Jack Dromey's seat. 6,040 votes in 2015.
No UKIP candidate in Birmingham Northfield. 7,106 votes in 2015. It's 4:1 Lab-UKIP switchers to Con-UKIP switchers
No UKIP candidate in Stoke North or Stoke Central, which comes as something of a surprise to say the least!
No UKIP candidate in Don Valley, Caroline Flint's seat. Equal proportions of Lab-UKIP and Con-UKIP switchers there. UKIP got 10k in 2015.
No UKIP candidate in Doncaster Central, Rosie Winterton's seat. Came second with 24% in 2015 (10k votes). 2:1 Lab-UKIP to Con-UKIP switchers
No UKIP candidate in Wakefield, Mary Creagh's seat. 7,862 votes in 2015. Roughly equal numbers of Lab-UKIP and Con-UKIP switchers
No UKIP candidate in Labour Leaver Kelvin Hopkins seat of Luton North. No surprise I guess.
I think UKIP not standing in some of these seats is ok news for Labour candidates to be honest.
No UKIP candidate in Eltham, Clive Efford's seat. Peter Whittle stood there in 2015 and got 6,481 votes.
No UKIP candidate in Swansea West. 4,744 votes in 2015. Slightly more Lab-UKIP switchers than Con-UKIP switchers
No UKIP candidate in John Mann's seat of Bassetlaw. 7,900 votes last time, Labour majority of 8,800.
APOLOGIES: There is a UKIP candidate in Stoke Central. That news came from a third party. Serves me right!
No UKIP candidate in Stoke South, Rob Flello's seat. 8,300 votes in 2015, majority of 2,539. 3:1 Lab-UKIP to Con-UKIP switchers there

Two theories: 1. UKIP are targeting Labour MPs by not standing. That presumes that a) UKIP have a working knowledge of their vote in those seats and b) the UKIP vote won't return to Labour. I'd say the former is unlikely and the latter open for debate at least.

Second theory: 2. UKIP are not standing candidates to help Labour beat the Tories. That presumes that a) UKIP have a working knowledge of their vote in those seats and b) many of those votes return to Labour. I'd say the former is unlikely and the latter a possibility

Third theory is, of course, there is no strategy and UKIP haven't got a pot to piss in any more.

[RTB: UKIP are not standing in my Constituency. This is because they disintegrated. I believe that the former UKIP candidate is standing as a candidate but for his new UKIP spin off party, after he fell out with them. I think its the third theory for this reason]

@democlub are putting a spreadsheet together with details of all candidates

It can be found here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wZeniqnMi1dyuB1eqCCumUq1kp8O_57TQsLyPwmLtQc/edit#gid=0

democracyclub.org.uk/blog/2017/05/09/650-volunteers-wanted/
650 volunteers wanted...

We’re looking for a volunteer for each of the 650 constituencies that go to the polls on 8June.
We’ll be looking to these volunteers to do thingslike:
Ensure that each candidate in that constituency has a full profile, including a photo, contact information, statement to voters, CV, etc. This will probably require emailing, calling or showing up at the offices of the more shycandidates;
Watch out for hustings and other election-related events in your area — perhaps attending the events and either recording them or writing notes and publishing themafterwards;
Actively seek out election leaflets from the candidates in that constituency;and
Add full results data once it’s published online in the days after theelection.

If anyone is interested....

Thanks, I'll register and help, My step brother did the same to get Obama in in 2008

UKIP are not standing candidates to help Labour beat the Tories.

Why would they do that 'Red*?

UKIP are standing against Theresa May.

The Socialist Party and the Communist League are standing against Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.