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Brexit

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2017 22:39

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

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woman12345 · 11/05/2017 09:50

Before Thatcher, the unwritten British constitution was reliant on this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_collective_responsibility

to check the power of the prime minister.

Her creeping centralisation of power and control was what her wets tried to fight against.

Blair didn't revert to cabinet responsibility. Cook and Short criticised him for not doing so.

“Elective dictatorships” of your article red is what the diamond mine coup meister is paying good money for.

I'm not surprised the excellent Le Carre series The Night Manager with Tom Hollander et al didn't win awards, it wasn't fiction.

woman12345 · 11/05/2017 09:51

Thanks for posting those RTB.

BiglyBadgers · 11/05/2017 09:52

I was quite pleased that on R4 this morning they mentioned the above leaks to the Tory that was on. It was pointed out to him that the Tories seems to be having their own issues with leaks at the moment and it appears not to be just a labour problem. Cue lots of spluttering about how the Times is peddling gossip and tittle tattle. It was quite amusing. Smile

BiglyBadgers · 11/05/2017 09:57

Her creeping centralisation of power and control was what her wets tried to fight against.

It was very telling that even members of her cabinet didn't know she was going to call and election until she was about to make the speech. I also understand that she has been very, very protective of the manifesto and is not putting it forward for cabinet approval. To me this says that it is May alone who is running the country rather than a (supposedly) representative group of people. This is very concerning as she is closing the door to mixed opinions and experience. This is not a healthy democracy.

woman12345 · 11/05/2017 09:58

JJ Patrick's Twitter thread on UKIP/Russia

@J_amesp

While both Labour and the Tories appear to be trying to take us back to 70s, the Telegraph have decided the Trump investigation is bogus...

@J_amesp
Basically, it's a round robin. I actually am starting to believe Russia has reached all of them. There's no other explanation.

@realpaolathomas

As a Brit living in the US and watching it all unfold in parallel on both sides of the pond, I would have to agree with you

@juanincognito

Private Eye regularly points out those paid supplements that the Telegraph inserts from Russia and others

woman12345 · 11/05/2017 09:59

The 'her' in my bit was Thatcher, bigly but May could easily be inserted here!

Kaija · 11/05/2017 10:08

Thanks woman - that wasn't the one I was thinking of... Will have a look later

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 10:10

This is very concerning as she is closing the door to mixed opinions and experience. This is not a healthy democracy.

It's not, but it also means that May will be making enemies who will bide their time until it's opportune to stab her in the back. Her noisy hard-right wing will probably desert at the same time, because IMO they don't do loyalty. Ordinary party members will quietly start to leave the Party. Because the election was called as an afterthought, it already means that there are constituencies that have had candidates imposed when they had a person they were trying to bring on as a prospective MP.

RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 10:32

Before Thatcher, the unwritten British constitution was reliant on this:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_collective_responsibility to check the power of the prime minister.

Her creeping centralisation of power and control was what her wets tried to fight against.

My understanding of the centralised selection process for Conservative candidates was to pick candidates who were 'tried and tested' in service to the Conservative party and didn't have extreme views either way on Brexit. This would also mean they would do Theresa's bidding as they were Theresa's picks.

This might help stop the split within the Conservative Party over the EU but its certainly not going to help democracy. Nor will it help get voices who are prepared to challenge May - when she needs it.

The reality is, that any good business, really needs people who feel able to challenge decision which are a load of crock to stop mistakes happening. Not only that but control freakery isn't possible in government due to the scale of it. The election was called because control freakery wasn't working. Thing is, having a large majority isn't going to solve that problem.

If May's reaction to every hurdle is to issue more and more edicts then that's really not good either.

I do wonder if we will get protests before 2020. If so, will the right to protest be removed? Will people carry on regardless with protests? Will the police be called in? And will that solve the issue? Will EU citizens living here be figures of blame and become targets?

If things DO get as bad as I fear they could do, then the potential for nasty stuff is really there. Queues at Dover inevitably means shortages on the shelves. That's where I worry.

May is not planning for queues at Dover, yet is talking about No Deal.

This either means she's totally bluffing, or she's totally on glue and we are headed for an almighty car crash. Its looking like the latter.

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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 10:41

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/11/paul-nuttall-stands-by-ukip-mep-islam-death-cult?CMP=twt_gu

The Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, says he is standing by a senior MEP in the party who described Islam as “death cult”.

Ukip’s Brexit spokesman, Gerard Batten, prompted outrage after he said non-Muslims should have a “perfectly rational fear” of a faith he characterised as a “death cult” steeped in violence in a blogpost in March.

Appearing on ITV’s Good Morning Britain, Nuttall dismissed Batten’s comments as a mistake and said he had not yet challenged the MEP on his remarks.

Asked if he stood by Batten, Nuttall said: “Yes I do actually, because he’s brilliant on Brexit … but he’s just got his terminology wrong here. I wouldn’t use that kind of language. Islam certainly isn’t a death cult.

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BiglyBadgers · 11/05/2017 10:42

This either means she's totally bluffing, or she's totally on glue and we are headed for an almighty car crash. Its looking like the latter.

I also vote for the latter. Even if she is bluffing it is a frankly terrifying and glue induced strategy. This is not the time for playing chicken with the EU. It is the time for grown up open and honest negotiations. I also think any strategy to keep her hard right happy by promising policies she would not deliver on would backfire terribly and leave the Government in a stat of chaos. She has promised the hard right a hard Brexit and there will be hell to pay if they don't get it.

RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 10:47

bruegel.org/2017/05/international-arbitration-is-the-way-to-settle-the-uks-brexit-bill/

Alan Beattie‏****@alanbeattie

Cute idea but "hey, Brexiters, a foreign court you've never heard of will tell us what to pay Brussels" a tough sell

David Allen Green‏***@davidallengreen*
You can't strip away the politics, of course.

But as a dispute (per se), makes almost perfect sense.

Alan Beattie‏****@alanbeattie

Of course, as does staying in the EU ;)

David Allen Green‏***@davidallengreen*

Ha.

I mean: the nature of the dispute, and the issues which need to be resolved, and in what order, all point to such an arbitration.

Alan Beattie‏****@alanbeattie

Indeed, though I suspect amateur dispute settlement nerds like me will get used to sub-optimal institutional choices in the years ahead.

David Allen Green‏***@davidallengreen*
Just looking at it from litigation perspective: which tool for which job. Arbitration often not good choice, but here ideal.
But: politics.

Allie Renison‏*@AllieRenison*
you know it's a better sell than the ECJ :) #anythingthatsnotEU

Alan Beattie‏****@alanbeattie

Gladiatorial combat between May and Juncker in the Grand Place would be a better sell than the ECJ tbh.

Yes please. Lets settle this like men (sic).

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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 10:56

David Frum‏ @davidfrum
Trump White House: Russians duped us about those Oval Office photos

"We were not informed by the Russians that their official photographer was dual-hatted and would be releasing the photographs on the state news agency," the administration official said.

As a result, White House officials said they were surprised to see photos posted online showing Trump not only with Lavrov but also smiling and shaking hands with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently
Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently
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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 11:04

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/11/the-brexit-trap-thats-closing-on-britons-who-live-in-europe?CMP=twt_gu
The Brexit trap that's closing on Britons who live in Europe

Article about British citizens living and working in the EU and how their situation isn't being considered and how they might be 'locked in' even if they are allowed to stay.

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RedToothBrush · 11/05/2017 11:09

Btw, the Labour Manifesto was probably leaked for a reason.

Once its out, its very difficult for anyone who didn't like it to object and get rid of a proposed policy.

That's precisely why it was leaked.

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BiglyBadgers · 11/05/2017 11:26

Yes, my thought listening to the radio this morning was that I would not be at all surprised if it was Corbyn's lot that leaked it. Gets them lots of publicity, gets it out before the Tories so a more open field, makes it hard for others on the party to change policies in it, and allows the left to smear the centerists as traitors who have leaked against the party. Word on Twitter suggests that the meeting to sign it off is expected to be dominated by discussion on the leak rather than the actual policies, which works very well for Corbyn.

Either Corbyn (or one of his mates) has been unexpectedly smart on this one, or someone hoping to sabotage the manifesto launch by leaking it has made a bit of a fool of themselves.

BiglyBadgers · 11/05/2017 11:28

For what it is worth I like what I have seen of the labour manifesto so far (though I haven't gone into the details). It is refreshing to have an actual clear difference between the two parties, which has been lacking in the past few elections. Of course, I am a rabid lefty so just the sort of person it would appeal to. Grin

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 12:18

I would say I was middle of the road politically - old middle of the road, pre Referendum, and I find much of good in the Labour manifesto. I hope it's not too little to late for them.

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 12:27

Oh dear, Farmers now wanting a deal with Europe. A good few of them need reminding how they voted.

In case you can't read this because it's behind the paywall, it says: The only countryside issue that has been mentioned by Theresa May is foxhunting. Good to see a PM with her finger on the pulse of how to make the country work for everyone then.

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 12:35

The same Times article goes on to say:

Mrs May is perceived as very much a Maidenhead Tory. “She will have Boden floral wellies or walking boots for the fells,” says one rural Conservative MP. “She will only have seen manicured home counties farmers who are doing it as a hobby or industry, not those who live hand to mouth.”

The potential implications of Brexit are huge for farmers. The UK exports £11 billion of food, drink and animal feed products to the EU, 60 per cent of total exports. Farming also depends on the free movement of labour, with 80,000 foreign EU nationals employed every year to pick fruit and vegetables, 98 per cent of the total work force.

Yes, well we might be able to mechanise in future. When New Zealand had to diversify, they were able to look to much nearer markets in South East Asia to forge trade links with. I wonder who we could forge links with?

Badders123 · 11/05/2017 12:43

I liking what I am reading in the labour manifesto

Motheroffourdragons · 11/05/2017 12:50

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

HashiAsLarry · 11/05/2017 12:52

Anyone want to make a statement and help Calais Action Grin
NSFW huff post

The only problem I really have with the Labour manifesto is what it doesn't say. Largely the giant brexit shaped hole in it.

HPFA · 11/05/2017 12:56

I would say I was middle of the road politically - old middle of the road, pre Referendum, and I find much of good in the Labour manifesto

It's slightly annoying because I always felt that Ed M could have been a little bolder - I get the impression that even though people have doubts about whether the proposals are costed and serious doubts about Corbyn as a leader they do like something of what Labour has to say.

Imagine Ed M going really big on housing and the National Education Service (which I think is a great idea and is going well on social media even amongst non-Labour sources) - that could have really energised particularly younger voters I think

HashiAsLarry · 11/05/2017 12:57

direct link to site
I especially like the iridescent acrylic version