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Brexit

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2017 22:39

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 16:46

www.ft.com/content/6441396a-3575-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e
What would a large Conservative majority mean for Brexit?
Two problems with belief that Theresa May will gain more leeway for compromises

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HesterThrale · 10/05/2017 19:51

I still think, and have done since the Ref, that young people are key in this. (No offence to the not-so-young enlightened people on here!)

The young need to vote in huge numbers. What might encourage them?

To avoid a Tory landslide, young people must vote:

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-extreme-general-election-2017-conservative-landslide-ukip-labour-young-people-vote-a7727621.html%3Famp

Labour might abolish Uni tuition fees; this would appeal to the young:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2017/may/10/labour-hints-that-it-will-pledge-to-abolish-university-tuition-fees

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 20:59

Believe it or not, but the Tories are running an energetic election campaign – you just can’t see it

This strategy has been supplemented by full-page wraparound adverts in local papers – in effect, putting a Conservative poster in every newsagent in every marginal. Critics argue that the design of these does not distinguish them as adverts, but cash-strapped local ­papers cannot afford to be choosy.

Meanwhile, Facebook and other social media websites operate under far looser rules about acceptable content than the broadcasters do, which allows the Tory campaign to run vicious attack videos against Jeremy Corbyn that would never be broadcast on national television.

As a result of all this, the Conservatives are fighting a campaign that is national in name only. Although the central themes – the solidity and strong leadership of Theresa May and the risk of a Corbyn government – are universal, the precise message is tailored to target voters. It also remains safely hidden from the scrutiny of the national media, on citizens’ computers and in their local press.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/im-womens-equality-party-candidate-heres-why-im-standing-against-female-0

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 21:01

Can't get the link up but the article's by Stephen Bush in New Statesman^

HesterThrale · 10/05/2017 21:10

woman the article you posted by the WEP candidate who's standing in Hornsey & Wood Green .... I'm a bit perplexed about that one. Why not stand in a constituency where there isn't already a good MP?

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 21:18

The link was the wrong one, I was trying to put up the article about Conservative campaigning by Stephen Bush. WEP, are beyond my remit, Smile
Conservative FB page is pretty funny though, with bile from Madam President and very un tory posts underneath. I don't know if they've quite thought that campaign through. Grin
Worth a visit for a laugh. www.facebook.com/pg/conservatives/posts/

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 22:32

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-manifesto-leaked-jeremy-corbyn-10396298

Labour manifesto leaked. It's very old skool labour as you might expect.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 22:35

Trouble in Richmond?

order-order.com/2017/05/10/electoral-commission-say-green-libdem-bung-is-matter-for-police/

Caroline Lucas has admitted for the first time that the Green Party WAS offered a £250,000 inducement to stand aside for the LibDems in the Richmond by-election. The Electoral Commission tell Guido that offering such a bung is a criminal offence and that this is a matter for the police…

It wasn't accepted and she doesn't remember who offered it.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 22:44

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-julian-assange-meeting-ecuadorian-embassy-london-wikileaks-russia-today-rt-interview-a7728891.html
Nigel Farage dodges question on why he met Julian Assange before abruptly ending interview

'It has nothing to do with you,' former Ukip leader tells reporter

German journalist asked Farage some difficult questions.

He says it was for journalist reasons. So where's the story? It's starting to smell rotten.

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Valentine2 · 10/05/2017 22:47

These two points of this leaked menifesto can be a big attraction to young people or under 40s: abolishing tuition fees and calling the private rent at inflation.

Cailleach1 · 10/05/2017 22:47

Wow! Just wow on that alleged offer of money to stand aside. It wasn't accepted and I am sure she will never be able to recall who the offer came from. You'd think with so much at stake in the country atm, they would be better talking tactics overall than an alleged bribe.

However, wouldn't it be a sign of the times if someone was prosecuted for that. And all the jiggery pokery the leave campaign and the Con's engaged in goes unchecked.

Valentine2 · 10/05/2017 22:48

Capping*

Cailleach1 · 10/05/2017 22:48

Oh and I can say there was jiggery pokery as the polis fined them for it.

Kaija · 10/05/2017 22:52

This green/lib dem story puts me in mind of the sweet kid who feels like he's got to go along with the bad gang who've decided to go shoplifting, but is of course rubbish at it and is caught immediately while all the others get away with it.

Cailleach1 · 10/05/2017 23:08

Just my inquisitive mind, but I would wonder what business Farage had with a computer savvy guy like Assange. One who was involved in leaks in a past life. Who knows how to infiltrate the digital world. I can't recall if what he did was illegal. Notwithstanding that, I'm sure the visit would have nothing whatsoever to do with dodgy goings on. I could speculate he just wanted to know why Assange was reluctant to go to face questioning in Sweden. Again, just my opinion, but I would highly doubt he was a conduit for the sinister forces which seem to have taken over the US and UK. And maybe tried to infiltrate the French elections. I wonder if Assange has taken advantage of his time to learn Russian?

Even though Farage's party, amongst others, is under investigation by OLAF for alleged misuse of funds, I would be shocked if he was found guilty of this. These are not all birds of a feather flocking together as some unkind people may venture.

mathanxiety · 11/05/2017 05:29

Olennas:
Medicare is medical care for the elderly. Medicaid is medical care for the poor who are not elderly.

COBRA health insurance continuation after losing your job and your health insurance is horrendously expensive, or at least it was before the ACA.

One thing that has really struck me working in the US is that the amount of hours spent by employers managing health insurance is incredible. Even if claims are managed directly by the insurer, the employer still has to select a scheme; be confident that it meets their needs and they can afford the employer contribution; run annual information and enrolment exercises.... These are costs that I would wager most of those advocating that the NHS should move closer to the American model have completely overlooked. Are British businesses ready to pick them up? I doubt it

It always flabbergasts me that a party claiming to be the pro business party can't see the advantage of single payer insurance and is happy to saddle business with the cost of group health insurance for employees. This is a huge competitive disadvantage for any American company competing with companies from civilised countries.

Facts and logic have nothing to do with the 'anti-socialist' stance, just as facts and logic have nothing to do with the misogynistic stance of the two workers cited in a linked article who voted for Trump (one with black lung disease). Trump appeals to sidelined men because he embodies everything they believe they themselves should have been allowed to achieve if it weren't for the damn feminists and the liberals and above all the uppity black people in government.

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 05:39

The Story of the supposed LibDem/Green bribe coming out on a day when the CPS decides not to prosecute 30 MPs for election fraud, in a party which had a record fine for election fraud, strikes me as a smear campaign. Why didn't it come out last January?

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 05:43

Re young people: Two friends, both working in schools at different ends of the country tell me how unmotivated and unambitious many of their pupils are. I think it's probably relevant that they both work in fairly deprived coastal areas. I suspect that people in those areas with 'get up and go' went ages ago. I, and many school friends, left a deprived area at the end of the late sixties/early seventies - few of us have gone back. I hope this lack of ambition and complete apathy isn't to be found everywhere because it's worrying.

Peregrina · 11/05/2017 05:48

Oh dear, the Tories' facebook page is at present featuring A leader who supports our armed forces or one who wants to abolish them? The choice is clear: Corbyn and your security is too big a risk.

Look at the responses underneath from members/ex-members of the Forces i.e. the Tories have already trashed them, is the tenor of their remarks. I wonder when the page will get taken down?

mathanxiety · 11/05/2017 06:37

Kaiser Permanente is not strictly speaking an insurance company. It is 'an integrated managed care consortium', a Health Maintenance Organisation.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Managed_care

....................

Eeeeeowwwfftz Sun 07-May-17 09:31:36
I was going to ask what the objection from the right to socialised healthcare is. I had assumed it came down to objecting to the state having a role in determining your treatment. It didn't realise it was just outright selfishness

It's not outright selfishness. It's blind belief in the every-man-for-himself-American Way. It is also a throwback to the Cold War (hence also the willingness of Americans and others to believe stereotypes of Russians in countless TV shows and other scenarios where Russia is always the bad guy). Bernie Sanders was the only politician ever to identify himself as a socialist and use the word socialism in positive terms, and he didn't do to badly, so perhaps some Americans are starting to get over this blind spot.

It's interesting that so many Americans in the South are descended from Scots and Ulster protestant immigrants of a Calvinist stripe. Their distant relatives are the members of the Orange Order and vote for the DUP. The association of prosperity with the favour of God is a strong one in their culture. There is a lot of circular reasoning involved that justifies discrimination against various targets, and a tendency to use local comparisons as indications that God's favour rests on them - so you get poor white trash believing they are ok with God because they are doing marginally better than blacks, who are downtrodden because the whites have made it their business to crush them underfoot. Or in NI, systematic discrimination against Catholics yielded evidence of Catholic inferiority.

Wrt the state having a role in healthcare - the infamous 'death panels' were given an airing by Sarah Palin, to great effect.

The same people who swallowed that one, hook, line and sinker might not understand what having insurance companies does to the independent judgement of doctors or why the dictates of bean counters might mean poorer quality of medical care than they might otherwise get. My late FIL was a surgeon and graduate of two Ivy League universities, one for undergrad and one for medical school who spent a lot of his time arguing with physician's assistants over the phone, trying to get certain procedures authorised by the insurance companies who employed them as gatekeepers, because the function and purpose of insurance companies is not necessarily to guarantee access to the best possible healthcare for the insured when good enough may well do ok, it is to produce an income for the insurance company shareholders.

Insurance companies dictating standards of care is far easier for the American public to rationalise than the prospect of a government doing so. It's considered unpatriotic to question capitalism, even this most egregious form of it. I had a brief run in with someone I know slightly, the father of one of DD1's friends, who was all rah-rah about the repeal of 'Obamacare' and the (according to him) far better Trump model that includes Downs Syndrome Shock as a pre-existing condition that companies can use as a basis for denial of coverage. His main concern was that the insurance industry would be bankrupted if it were to be used to insure Americans with health problems. He felt deeply that the business model that protected health insurance companies' health at the expense of universal access to affordable healthcare by actual people was unassailable on any grounds.

HashiAsLarry · 11/05/2017 06:51

I'm guessing someone's a little desperate to get Zac back in.
guardian on richmond

Charmageddon · 11/05/2017 06:53

Re the Green/Lib Dem bribe.

I watched Caroline Lucas being grilled on it by Andrew Neill - she clearly knew the name of the person, but wasn't prepared to name them on tv (fair enough, I think).

She was adamant that the Greens had already decided to stand down before the offer of money, and the offer was turned down after their ethical checks deemed it to be not ok.

I think it's a non story that unfortunately the media have decided to run with tbh - bit unfair as it appears on the face of it that the Greens did nothing wrong.
(I do wonder though if they declared it properly at the time, to cover their own backs if nothing else, and if not then why on earth not?).

Artisanjam · 11/05/2017 06:55

Isn't the Scots and Irish Protestantism descended from Calvinism - that the true believers are chosen and will get into heaven, everyone else will go to hell? (Apologies if I haven't described it properly) so there is s really long history of them being chosen and superior because of their particular and austere brand of Protestantism...

I'm a trustee of a charity which is just having to set up pensions in the uk got the first time. Even with the government's own supported Nest scheme, it has taken me almost a week out of the last month to get details, get approvals from the other trustees, do the mandatory letters etc. This is on top of a full time paid job and a full time reading mumsnet job!!

If pensions (which are familiar) and just need a monthly payment, in take this much work, how much more work would administering a health insurance scheme work if it has to cover most people rather than as an opt-in?!

HashiAsLarry · 11/05/2017 07:22

This gave me a giggle this morning.

Old skool Labour, still more progressive than the Tories Grin

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently
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