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Brexit

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2017 22:39

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:26

Rudy Giuliani will be FBI director my post was on this, I couldn't believe that.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:27

Surely constitutional lawyers will be all over this

You are thinking in pre-brexit logic. Enemies of the people had more than one purpose.

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:28

I know.Sad

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:30

Mike Smithson @ MikeSmithsonPB
At 11am Crown Prosecution Service announces what it is doing about the CON GE2015 expenses investigation

Don't get your hopes up.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:32

Not confirmed woman. He's at Trump tower though. I'd put money on it. 9/11 national security and public confidence and all that shit.

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:34

However,

The last president to fire an FBI director? Bill Clinton

www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-last-fbi-director-to-get-fired-before-1494368709-htmlstory.html

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:40

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-ensures-john-bercows-return-10390247
Theresa May ensures John Bercow's return as Commons speaker with enthusiastic endorsement

Rebel Tories won't dare seek to topple him when the House of Commons returns after the election

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:43

Remove a focus for rebellion, is that the Bercow strategy?

Would fluffy minded fox lovers be another 'in' for tory rebels?

The 'Countryside Alliance' will be marching alongside The Orange Lodge.

Obama's photographer Pete Souza trolls Trump once again after James Comey firing

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/comey-fired-pete-souza-photo-obama-photographer-response-trolling-a7727291.html

And for whatwouldrondo
This is what Labour can learn about winning an election from Macron's victory in France

www.independent.co.uk/voices/labour-emmanuel-macron-election-victory-france-chuka-umunna-lessons-a7725496.html

It's scary out here on airstrip one, but we're 26 miles from the fightback. Smile

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:47

The people's daily reports on the coup.
'Coup de Trump': How the US media reacted to the president firing FBI head James Comey
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/coup-de-trump-us-media-reacted-president-firing-fbi-head-james/

What is happening if the DT is referring to a coup?

Motheroffourdragons · 10/05/2017 06:47

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 06:49

It's the 'countryside alliance' and their fellow travellers she's after mother: a fair minded and more democratically inclined bunch of rich brexiteering aristocrats and their servants.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:53

To charge anyone for campaign overspending CPS must establish "intent".

Observation by BBC's Nick Robinson.

This is where the CPS will fall down.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 06:59

Remove a focus for rebellion, is that the Bercow strategy?

Bercow is popular in liberal circles not the hard right of the party. She's saying 'look I support the liberalisation of parliament. I am a liberal who supports other liberals'. It's political positioning. She wants to keep the liberal side of the Tory vote. The government fear the LDs more than you think.

(I also note the LDs are standing in Buckinghamshire. I don't think they will win, but it's supposedly a liberal area with remain leaning tendancies. It could be simply a good way of ensuring no nasty surprises)

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 07:03

red The 48% ( of which there are two Hertfordshire groups, NE and SW) are going after that seat.

If the treasurer “knowingly or recklessly” makes a false declaration then there is also an offence

According to this article it's with intent or reckless.

blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/08/the-law-and-politics-of-the-conservative-election-expense-allegations/

And above article questions legitimacy of legislation passed with ensuing majority.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 07:04

Michael Crick @ MichaelLCrick
In 80s & 90s party leaders held half-hour press confs every am. Thatcher & co didn't have lists of questioners or need to know Qs in advance

May isn't Thatcher. She's the British Trump in a dress.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 07:10

www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/04/trumps-threat-to-the-2020-census-000404
Trump's threat to the 2020 Census
Says one expert: ‘We could be heading for a train wreck.’

The census data is the basis of re-districting and accurate, equitable representation of the electorate in U.S. Congress.

The US Census Director quit yesterday.

It's more important than you realise

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 07:15

Be careful Michael Crick, please.

More from the FT article on law re election expenses fraud.

It'll be really difficult to prove that CCHQ had a guilty mind. Hmm

the requirement of knowledge] is crucial, because it defines the dishonest knowledge which constitutes the mens rea [that is, the requirement that there be criminal intention] of the statutory crime and which must be established before a defendant is convicted.

But it is, of course, for the prosecution to prove lack of honest belief and not for the defendant to prove his honesty. The nub of the offence is the declaration of an honest belief in the accuracy of a disclosure which is known to be incomplete or inaccurate”.

In respect of the current allegations against Conservative candidates and agents it would seem that any prosecution for either an illegal or a corrupt electoral practice will need to establish that it was clear that the expenses were such that they should have been on the candidates return (either in full or part). If the prosecution is for a “corrupt practice” then the prosecution will also have to demonstrate – beyond reasonable doubt – dishonest intent.

Unless compelling evidence emerges of wrongful and dishonest intention – either on a personal level or as part of a conspiracy – then it is hard to see any charges or criminal prosecutions in respect of the allegations as they currently stand.

But the current allegations also signify something perhaps ugly about contemporary UK politics. There seems an increasing tendency for politicians and activists to seek criminal liability for their opponents, rather than to just defeat them in the ballot. This cannot be a good thing. Reporting a political opponent to the police should always be a last resort in exceptional circumstances, not a standard and casual political tactic.

woman12345 · 10/05/2017 07:18

We could be heading for a train wreck
As in, 2016 was the last election.

Symmetry in two electoral fraud scenarios coinciding, can't have been lost on Bannon and Timothy. Creeps.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 07:19

Soon to be on Trump's to do list: precrime as a real concept to be enforced.

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woman12345 · 10/05/2017 07:22

precrime as a real concept to be enforced.
Happened here with retrospective legislation. Been there, done that.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2017 07:24

David Allen Green @ DavidKenner
A 'constitution' is, in practice, whatever those with political power can get away with.

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missmoon · 10/05/2017 07:31

Re. the census, yes, and an easy way to manipulate funding to various programmes by under-counting minorities. They tried to do away with it here too, but after much protest by academics, civil servants and NGOs, and faced with the practical consequences, they had to give up.

HPFA · 10/05/2017 07:35

I actually think the Hunting issue is a bit of a misstep for TM

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/fox-hunting-boxing-day-poll-opposition-all-time-high-theresa-may-hunting-ban-act-vote-a7495336.html

It's only going to appeal to those who were already going to vote for her and will increase fears about what a large majority will enable her to do. If Labour were competent they could do a real number on this.

Motheroffourdragons · 10/05/2017 07:41

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

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