Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

[RedToothBrush]

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

Just a reflection from a past life in printing. Tight deadlines are really affecting how policy is getting out. It serves to make it even more about personally.

Postal votes go out in just a couple of weeks. We don't have a manifesto for anyone yet.

This means leaflets due to arrive on your doorstep by mass mail before this crucial date, are being written / have been written already and will start going through the process of postal approval and printing right now.

People will be making decisions off the back of these. Leaflets still remain a key communication device in election for many. They end up in the bin in mins but they are still important and can make it break an election.

From experience I know local parties tend to have control over this - for the Lib Dems, labour, ukip ( and i presume green). Conservative communications are now highly centralised and have multiple million pound advertising campaigns behind them. It's some completely inexperienced group on a laptop in some ones front room making it up off the hoof versus a slick machine that perhaps has access to her to be published manifesto info.

Later leaflets will perhaps say more and be more 'on message' but this comes after many have already voted and it is more difficult to do in seats which aren't targets if you don't have the money to post (which of course the Conservatives do) and have to rely on hand delivery.

It doesn't seem a big deal until you start to look into the mechanics of an election in this way.

I'm sure that there will be a blaze of activity when manifestos do officially come out but only the politically engaged are likely to use the TV or even newspapers or Internet for this.

The humble good old Election leaflet is one of the few things that can cross the barrier to those who disengage from politics the rest of the time.

The timetable for this election is a challenge for all. It's more of a challenge for those we don't have full time to dedicate to it or are more reliant on volunteers.

It's great to see so many new people on this thread; new or de-lurking. I've been following since the first thread, and it's really comforting to know that in these depressing, regressive times, there are many people who share your views.
So many wise, intelligent folk and a respectful exchange of views. (What Parliament should be like.)

math were you doubting the truth of the comment about "North African pirates"? The "Barbary Pirates" or "Barbary Corsairs" did exist, they did raid shipping and the coasts of Ireland and the South West of England, mainly for slaves, although Spain and the Mediterranean cost of France fared worse. They operated from ports in North Africa, hence Barbary, from the name of the Berber people, and though their ethnicity was mixed, many were indeed North African.

History is complex and nuanced, no states or cultures are ever entirely the good guys - a truth that those yearning for the days of Empire ignore, or of which they are ignorant.

Delurking to say thanks for another great thread Red.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39822306
Lib Dems pledge 1p income tax rise to fund NHS

Election Data @election-data
More people will oppose this than support and it won't cut through - Lib Dems pledge 1p income tax rise to fund NHS

We need this. Our GDP spend on health care is shit. BUT

Lib Dems are going after higher earners - many are tribal Tories who like low taxation. ( Many of whom also already have private health provision) There is still feeling that NHS wastes a lot too in some circles (anyone who has supplied NHS has a story).

People want more money for the NHS. They don't want to pay more for it though.

It might be attractive to former Labour voters. Reality perhaps is that the Lib Dems need to make an impact and appeal to those higher earnings remain Tories to win seats.

How the Election goes is ultimately about two groups and two groups only now. Middle class high earning remain former Tory voters and working class leave labour voters.

To a large extent everyone else is academic and just about getting people to bother to turn out.

I really dislike the uptake in postal voting for the reasons you've outlined above.
A week used to be a long time in politics but not with a third of people voting postaloy (anecdotally, don't know the actual figures).

History is complex and nuanced, no states or cultures are ever entirely the good guys - a truth that those yearning for the days of Empire ignore, or of which they are ignorant.

This is one reason I particularly love family history. Your natural sympathy changes and it gets you to look at things from a different angle rather than a prescribed way. The stories you sometimes come across defy what you might expect or think you might know.

My dad's family has a lot of female entrepreneurs - who relied on men due to limitations of the time - but there is no doubt they led what they were doing. They often belonged to non-conformist churches. Some married. Some didn't. Some carried on after being widowed.

So much is lost though. What's missing because women were limited by law makes it harder to find out more especially in comparison to their male contemporaries.

(Perhaps unsurprisingly non-conformity features heavily on my mum's side too for many generations. I was always doomed to object to 'the system'!)

"What is worrying for Indy supporters is the way that the Labour vote seemed happy to jump to Conservative."

My occasional lurks on the Scotsnet boards show that some Scots feel this is the only way they can show opposition to the SNP. One party states are not healthy for anyone.

"I really dislike the uptake in postal voting"

Me too. Think how many votes had been cast before Jo Cox was murdered or Farage unveiled that poster. Clearly there are some people who are totally tribal and only ever vote one way but for the rest? Too many factors come into play in the latter part of the campaign.

This is truly shocking. A UN report on the impact on human rights of Tory Govt policies is due out on Tuesday. It's not been reported in the U.K. media. The lists of concerns - exactly the issues debated on this thread for months - show in total what this country is turning into.

www.thecanary.co/2017/05/05/media-kept-quiet-massive-blow-tories-election-campaign-reporting/

Faisal Islam has been tweeting about this Barnier full statement
The personal conclusion is quite interesting. Never mind the fact they're so not going to do any of this privately.

Hester brilliant and terrifying when seen in those lists. In a state with no moral compass, these acts have become normalised: detention centres, deportation, lack of legal aid, attacks on women, rocketing child poverty, food poverty etc.

Like the trains taking neighbours to 'work centres', being an acceptable part of German life in the early 1940s, that list has identified how state breaches of human rights have happened here, with national acquiescence .

Found some interesting sections in:
motlc.wiesenthal.com/site/pp.asp?c=gvKVLcMVIuG&b=394663#10
"Which groups of people in Germany were considered enemies of the state by the Nazis and were, therefore, persecuted?
Answer: The following groups of individuals were considered enemies of the Third Reich and were, therefore, persecuted by the Nazi authorities: Jews, Gypsies, Social Democrats, other opposing politicians, opponents of Nazism, Jehovah's Witnesses, homosexuals, habitual criminals, and "anti-socials" (e.g. beggars, vagrants, hawkers), and the mentally ill. Any individual who was considered a threat to the Nazis was in danger of being persecuted"

Compare and contrast with the current 'traitors' and 'enemies of the people'.

"In every country they occupied, with the exception of Denmark and Bulgaria, the Nazis found many locals who were willing to cooperate fully in the murder of the Jews"

How easy it is to gain normalisation of state terror policies: deportation, detention, state racism and sexism.

We are not, thank goodness, at the murder stage.

But the sick and disabled who are being mistreated are dying prematurely through suicide in growing numbers, with no comment from the mainstream press of political parties.

Disabled and sick refugees are certainly being deported with dangerous and sometimes fatal results.

I would add to the lists the subversion of child protection laws to enabled injustices like this one:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/16/parents-had-week-old-baby-taken-away-social-services-father/
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-39778099

This country is a police state already, that much is clear from what we have seen so far. The power is there, and on June10th they will really start to enforce patriotic fascism

Again, notice that Arron Banks is invisible (apart from announcing the end of the ukips).

In US Siskind is doing the same:
medium.com/@Amy_Siskind/week-22-experts-in-authoritarianism-advise-to-keep-a-list-of-things-subtly-changing-around-you-so-fdf7960cacd6

Barnier is our Churchill right now.

Exactly woman. How is it that all these things are happening in a 'liberal' rich democracy?

'Boiling' and 'frogs' come to mind.

How is it that all these things are happening in a 'liberal' rich democracy?

As the saying goes, for evil to triumph good people need to do nothing. A significant number of people neither know nor care what is happening around them. Others who are good people, don't know what to do. Thankfully, other people do speak out and keep speaking out, even when it costs them personally.

twitter.com/orachaelo/status/860786785579929600

The Tory party has totally changed < grumpy old bag warning >
from the "One Nation conservativism" pioneered by Disraeli, but coming into its own with the list-WW2 consensus about a fairer, kinder society.

Most of its leaders and supporters - including some MN posters - regard human rights as subversive and the vulnerable as a burden to be shed in favourite of tax cuts .....

Ebenezer: Are there no prisons?
First Collector: Plenty of prisons.

Ebenezer: And the union workhouses - are they still in operation?
First Collector: They are. I wish I could say they were not.

Ebenezer: Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something had happened to stop them in their useful course.
I'm very glad to hear it.

First Collector: I don't think you quite understand us, sir.
A few of us are endeavoring to buy the poor some meat and drink, and means of warmth.

Ebenezer: Why?

post-WW2

I was listening to Nick Robinson's election programme this morning and he was interviewing a man who works with political focus groups. This man said that what had happened when he played Remainers clips of TM declaring war on Brussels after the dinner party fiasco was interesting: Remainers were very anxious about the rhetoric, quite fearful of the consequences. However, when asked who they were going to vote for, a large number gravitated towards TM because they felt that they needed a strong leader to deal with these kinds of problems (albeit ones entirely of her own making). x 10000

The Tories in the 1950s didn't tear up Attlee's Welfare State Reforms. I have wondered whether many would have been in the Wartime coalition and would have been a party to the discussions.

My only hope now is that Strong and Stable May finds that her soundbites don't work, and that her own party gets rid of her. Preferably asap.

Just got a Tory leaflet. No mention of candidate so falls under national expenses not local.

Strong and Stable count:

Strong - 11
Stable - 8

It says pretty much nothing else.

Is there any way of "registering" it with the Electoral Commission so that it doesn't get "forgotten"/not counted? [hmm

GOOD NEWS

Just been catching up on the election results, seem May is bringing the country together. Hopefully it is a sign that she will get the mandate she needs at the general election to stand up to the EU and get us a good deal.

Bringing together?

Ok then.

Not biting. Not to an Anonymous.

Another thanks for the new thread.

Marina Hyde explained Conkip-voting Labour supporters well yesterday. She said something like Branch Jeremians told them many times to f*ck off to the Tories and that is exactly what they did.

😂😂😂