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Brexit

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently

996 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/05/2017 22:39

Theresa May has declared war on the EU. She is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ after she got caught out by a highly predictable leak.

Apparently, the EU are trying to rig an election she seems almost dead cert to win. They deliberately timed the leak to interfere with an election May decided the timing of. May was not supposed to be at the dinner, but after she announced the election she decided that she had to get in on the act for some reason. Wildly speculating here, but could this be because she wanted the political mileage herself?

No it wasn't a preplanned strategy. Don't be stupid. That would suggest they had the foggiest clue and a plan. Nope, the war declaration was an opportunist damage limitation exercise, used to maximise political capital.

She has now even further alienated the EU. It seems difficult to conceive how any deal will be done. Instead it looks like the election is trying to set us up to crash out. Whether the ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’ happens to make the 3 page Tory Manifesto remains to be seen.

This would leave EU nationals and British national aboard in legal and social limbo.

There is also a feud building over the Brexit leaving bill, which is steadily climbing. We can not progress to the second stage of Brexit without resolving this. Again, this seems unlikely.

Thirdly, a settlement with Ireland is a top priority for the EU, and plans are being drawn up to make allowances for any potential United Ireland. This is a subject that is still to be talked about on any level really. May has been much more interested in the fate of Scotland and battling with Nicola Sturgeon.

That’s the thing. May is like the playground bully who goes around going “Do you wanna scrap ?, Do ya? DO YA?” and generally throws their weight around and most of the time gets their own way as a result. The trouble with the strategy is when the bigger kid comes along and thumps the bully, for being a cocky little shit and doesn’t like their kid brother getting picked on.

The trouble is that May is setting it up, to try and make it look like the poor little Britain has been picked on to her parents, so they go around accusing the big kid of all sorts rather than admitting their little darling is a nasty little shit.

It’s not going to end well is it? You can’t help but feel that at some point they’ll all end up in the Headmasters office and the WTO/UN/International Courts will rule against us for being a bunch of dickheads. No doubt May, will stick to character, hold a grudge and demand to leave them or say they have no authority over the UK.

That or we really will end up declaring war on Spain over Gibraltar. By accident of course. Probably to keep the ConKip party together and avoid a split.

Rule Britannia. Britannia rules. Erm, not a lot these days.

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squoosh · 07/05/2017 22:09

Maybe Leadsom will throw crates of Nescafé into the English Channel a la the Boston Tea Party in support of Cornish tea.

woman12345 · 07/05/2017 22:09

Casablanca moment there with the Marseillaise.

Seems difficult for British male journalists to get over his wife being older than him. Are they threatened by a sexy older women binning their old men for a younger model? Grin It's an idea.

Did you hear them mention En Marche was helped by Obama. The only sensible thing for the opposition here is to get some advice from people who've won.

I have 3 twit accounts I follow. Neil, Cricks and Islam and they've got grumpy responses from I presume sensitive Brexit souls, saddened at yet another fascist loss.

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:12

Tom Nuttall‏*@tom*_nuttall
1/ A brief thread on what we know so far about @EmmanuelMacron's Europe policies.
Macron won wrapped in the EU flag. That is a) good for atmospherics w/ partners and b) part of a broader European trend.
Macron says eurozone needs reforms like finance minister, permanent Eurogroup head etc. Impetus must come from France & Germany together.
See recent @SPIEGEL_English interview.
www.spiegel.de/international/europe/emmanuel-macron-interview-on-french-election-campaign-a-1139214.html
So far, so French. But unlike Hollande, who took office vowing to reverse austerity & got his ear chewed off by Merkel at 1st meeting...
Macron knows German trust must be earned via domestic reforms - and has won a large mandate to enact them.
Many reasons for scepticism, of course. Macron's reforms as economy minister were ground down in parliament and on the streets.
There's huge uncertainty over the make-up of France's next parliament and Macron's ability to impose his will on it.
But don't write off the chances of a grand (or med-sized) bargain. Macron enjoys Merkel's endorsement. German elex may open window of opp.
So if stars align - big if - there could be ground to move. Small things first, such as completing banking union.
What else?
Every sign Macron will be tough on Brexit. Has said UK erred, is heading for "servitude". Wants to renegotiate Le Touquet.
In other areas signs he'll pursue trad French line. Hammering Irish on corporate tax, howling about "social dumping" (cheap CEE labour).
On Greece, according to @yanisvaroufakis Macron is highly sceptical about EZ's bailout policy. Yet will prob not want to pick fight w Merkel
On trade, Macron may not be the globalist of caricature. Wants a Buy European Act for public procurement!
www.politico.eu/article/macronomics-french-front-runner-seeks-to-reinvent-eu-trade/
Finally, Macron has signalled he'll take v tough line on Poland and Hungary. Says there will be "decision" on Poland within 3 months.
Which presumably means starting the conversation on Article 7 (suspending EU voting rights). So-called "nuclear option".
That's it for now. What did I miss?

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RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:15

Blair Reeves‏*@BlairReeves*
Btw: it is wrong to say that a third of French voters chose Le Pen. She won ~35% of votes cast, making her 3rd behind blank/did not vote.

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woman12345 · 07/05/2017 22:15

Cheers, it's weird having good news though.Smile The audacity of hope?

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:22

Oh yeah...

On that Private Dinner:
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-angry-jean-claude-juncker-leak-brexit-dinner-theresa-may-a7721316.html

Angela apparently wasn't too happy.

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Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 22:22

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 22:27

Denis McShane on That Dinner

https://infacts.org/5-brexit-lessons-dinner-hell/

May’s advisers seem to like sending her naked into the conference chamber – or the Downing Street dining room

Her comparison of leaving the EU to the justice and home affairs dossier, as if Brexit was about securing a mix of opt-ins chosen unilaterally from a UK menu, was bizarre.

The UK will become a third country.
Outside the Customs Union it will have lower status than Turkey.

Does no one in Downing Street understand that?

All the points made by the EU side are common knowledge in European capitals.
Anyone who bothers to go to Berlin or Warsaw or Madrid can freely discuss them with ministers and officials in charge of Brexit.

This is not an anti-UK plot made in Berlaymont.

It represents the minimum demands of 27 sovereign governments that have to deal with their own voters and parliaments.

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:31

Anne Applebaum‏*@anneapplebaum*

The Tory party "defeated" populism by embracing it and embodying it. Macron defeated it by...defeating it. What a difference.

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illegitimateMortificadospawn · 07/05/2017 22:31

Oh and also, Britain did rule Ceylon.

Theresa, is that you? The empire is gone, you know.

When the entire population starts getting caffeine withdrawal, I'll be the one sat in the corner quivering as everyone else goes mad.

I have never been a prepper, but my weekend coffee-withdrawal headaches are awful. I will add paracetamol to my new post-Brexit list.

If Wales stay in the Union, we will be OK - or at least the oligarchs will. The Penderyn distillery is near Brecon & they do whisky AND gin. 👍

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 22:40

Britain has never been so politically isolated in the EU

Partly the result of yet another stupid & shortsighted decision by Cameron: for Tory MEPs to leave the main centre-right EPP grouping in the EU Parliament to create its own grouping that Nick Clegg called “nutters, anti-semites and homophobes”.

https://infacts.org/britain-has-never-been-so-politically-isolated/

"Now the rest of Europe shakes its head in well-nigh universal sadness and dismay at the isolationist stance of the Brexit British.

When Margaret Thatcher negotiated the UK budget rebate in 1984 she had powerful centre-right friends in European governments willing to help find a solution.

Today the dominant federation of centre-right parties in the European Parliament, the European People’s Party, which includes Angela Merkel, Mariano Rajoy, Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk among its leading members, is united on its Brexit policy."
< united against May's demands / delusions, sadly >

This is the EPP full-page ad in the Brussels weekly Politico, setting out their Brexit demands & red lines:

Westministenders: Its WAR. Huh!? What is that good for? Negotiations apparently
RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:41

www.buzzfeed.com/juliegerstein/19-amazing-tweets-about-the-french-election?bftw=undefined&utm_term=.fvBmLQEJx#.epJXbgxlw
19 Must-Read Tweets About The French Election

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 22:42

"Northern Ireland has had next to no coverage in the British press.

Yet Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, told me that if the UK quits the customs union (as Theresa May has threatened), there would have to be customs control posts on the 310-mile frontier between Northern Ireland in the UK and Ireland in the EU.

It would be an external EU border.

Even if the common travel area that allows all Irish citizens to travel, live, work, vote and stand for election in the UK is maintained, the creation of customs control posts with the Union flag flying above them on all roads crossing between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will be a red rag to any Irish nationalist brought up on the Sinn Fein-IRA culture of hatred of the “Brits”.

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 22:44

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*
Key thing re Brexit from Macron presidency: the EU is & will still be here. Was never Gov position, but fair few Brexiteers believed it gone

This is the reason so many on twitter are rather unhappy tonight.

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2017 22:46

I'm indifferent to tea, coffee, or even prosecco
< happily counts bars of Lindt choc >
#I'mAllRightJill

pointythings · 07/05/2017 22:48

in actual fact, continental Europe was destroyed in an internecine war sometime in July 2016 and has been a smoking ruin for the past 9 months

Well, I was in the Netherlands over Easter, and unless the powers that be have developed very convincing hard light holograms, Holland was still there. Including my very lovely mum.

woman12345 · 07/05/2017 22:51

Films which have helped the French not turn fascist: La Haine.
Film which will hopefully continue to keep Germany not fascist: Fear Eats the Soul.
www.theguardian.com/film/2017/mar/30/fear-eats-the-soul-review-love-versus-racism-in-fassbinders-exquisite-tale
I can't think of any British ones.

Motheroffourdragons · 07/05/2017 22:52

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woman12345 · 07/05/2017 22:59

@faisalislam
far from it actually. With Merkel or just perhaps Schulz, and Renzi making comeback in Italy, on top of Dutch results, no Brexit contagion

unicornsIlovethem · 07/05/2017 23:06

I can't add to non fascist British films, but Dunkirk and Arthur, Legend of the sword, will both be released later this year. I wonder what sort of national identity they'll be playing!

prettybird · 07/05/2017 23:11

Re tea: tea is made from the shoots of a camellia bush. Camellias grow well in Scotland. Ergo, tea can grow well in Scotland Wink but there again, it might not be UKish for much longer Wink

As an aside, there used to be a thriving tea farm in South Africa where my aunt lives. It was taken over by the local African tribe as part of a land grab. It no longer produces tea as the camellia bushes are no longer managed: it is highly labour intensive, picking the young shoots from which tea is made. It's really sad to see the camellia now trees growing in an uncontrolled fashion where seried rows of tea producing bushes used to be Sad

If Scotland (or Wales) wants to be a serious tea producer, they need to have access to a ready supply of labourers willing to pick tips of camellia shrubs for long hours. I wonder who will be prepared to do such back breaking work ? Hmm

RedToothBrush · 07/05/2017 23:20

If Scotland (or Wales) wants to be a serious tea producer, they need to have access to a ready supply of labourers willing to pick tips of camellia shrubs for long hours. I wonder who will be prepared to do such back breaking work ?

Well the former mining towns are looking for employment...

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illegitimateMortificadospawn · 07/05/2017 23:22

If Scotland (or Wales) wants to be a serious tea producer, they need to have access to a ready supply of labourers willing to pick tips of camellia shrubs for long hours. I wonder who will be prepared to do such back breaking work ?

We could reintroduce national service. A ready supply of the national brew is national service, no?

(I'll bugger off back to lurking now, RTB & co, so you can get back to the politics.)

Tanith · 07/05/2017 23:27

"Unless we've annexed Ceylon, tea isn't either. Short of alcoholic beverages, I'm not sure we have any home grown hot drinks."

I believe the French used acorns during the Occupation. We have plenty of those, you'll be glad to recall Smile
Bit of an acquired taste, though, by all accounts...

illegitimateMortificadospawn · 07/05/2017 23:29

Thanks Tanith. I'm taking notes for the post-Brexit austerity years.