Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

I thought it was too nice to be true misti :(

I have been out all day, so partly placemarking.

The list of Lib Dem candidates is out of date; it may well change.
As far as I am concerned, the gloves are off now, and I am going to work my socks off to get our useless Tory MP out. She won by a whisker in 2010 after a dirty campaign. She consolidated her majority in 2015 but that was a bad time for the Lib Dems, who came second. In a Remain Constituency, which hasn't yet been gerrymandered to put some true blue Tory votes in, there is a very strong chance that she will be voted out.

I would also like to see Maidenhead vote out May and Wokingham to vote out Redwood, but I think that might be too much to ask of the voters of those constituencies.

I don't see how TM can get a deal. She won't allow FoM, it's her red line. But FoM is also the EU's red line - see Switzerland.

The 3.47am Amber Rudd's moment will be fun.

Sorry, what is that? Have I missed something by being out all day?

The worst thing is to then compare that with what is happening with France.
So for the presidential elections, I've just received a letter with all the candidates papers presenting their program. There is a polling station not too far from where I live, organised by the honorary consul and some volunteers. Yes u can vote in person or give a 'derogation' to someone else (i.e. Someone is going to vote on your behalf, who YOU want to vote for)

If the UK wanted to do something re vote of British abroad, they could...

I hate her speeches

So divisive....

She needs to get a better speechwriter

Or an actual speechwriter

Dare I ask, what will happen in N Ireland? Will SinnFein get a majority?
I know they don't take up Westminster seats, but it will complicate the N Ireland situation.

I had to chuckle at the Independent:

"Ukip donor Arron Banks has said he will run against the party's former MP Douglas Carswell in Clacton in the upcoming general election, though it is not clear which party he would represent."

She can get a deal it will just be a shit one. Based on her red lines, on her statement that we're leaving the single market and Davis' statement we're leaving the customs union: we're looking at an interminable interim deal until an FTA is signed mid to late 20s.

Much can change in that time of course which is what the Brexit loons will panic about.

I don't think SF will triumph in NI but I dare say that some traditional DUP voters will look elsewhere rather than support (by proxy) a government that has so definitively screwed them over. Fourth national poll in NI in two years - it's no joke for them, is it ?

She needs to get a better speechwriter

Or an actual speechwriter

Here's looking at you Nick Timothy & Fiona Hill.

Placemarking after a recommendation on the Trump thread.

I think more Unionists will come out to vote for this election given the result of the last one. Gotta hope that more SF voters get out there too.

I have been recommended this thread by a fine upstanding individual on the biglyest and bestest of Trump threads, so thought I would sidle over and join you.

Brexit is going to be a disaster and May knows it. Better to get a GE done now so they have 5 years in power than have one when everyone can see the mess they have made of things.

:o

I disagree - they've seen how precious the Union is to the Conservative party, many will have a good idea how destructive Brexit will be on the island of Ireland, Arlene Foster has refused to take any responsibility for the green energy fiasco that has cost hundreds of millions in subsidies. I can't see many of them voting for the DUP with huge enthusiasm (I'm no expert though .

^^ that was to Ninon

They need 5 years in power to get onto an interim deal without a 2020 election buggering up their agreement.

Neither am I, but I always hope fewer Unionists will turn out than actually do, so I'm not getting my hopes up.

The worst thing is to then compare that with what is happening with France.So for the presidential elections, I've just received a letter with all the candidates papers presenting their program. There is a polling station not too far from where I live, organised by the honorary consul and some volunteers. Yes u can vote in person or give a 'derogation' to someone else (i.e. Someone is going to vote on your behalf, who YOU want to vote for)

If the UK wanted to do something re vote of British abroad, they could

Absolutely they could, they wont though. The one good thing about brexit is that it's motivated us to sort out citizenship - two down two to go. We will all have a vote at the next presidential election (my youngest just turned 14 so will be able to vote next time, as will my 15 year old). Macron fanboy DH wishes he'd done it earlier!

May deliberately panders to those of her backbenchers who loved Maggie as their dominatrix of choice.
(she lacks the Mighty M's political talents and also her courage)

She may unwillingly emulate Maggie in being ruthlessly dumped for political expediency, as the Tory Party do so well:

If Brexit goes pear-shaped, then expect her to be landed with the blame and dumped around 2021, in time for a sparkly new Tory Leader in the 2022 GE.
That trick worked nicely before on the electorate .... is it because people really feel they are voting for a PM, not a party (and not their MP) ?

I think you could be right there BigChoc. Many of the Tories who agreed to this are no doubt already measuring her up for a lovely goat costume and sharpening their knives for when it gets nasty with Brexit. Timing does would very well.

Would...should be work...sorry. It's late and I am a tad stressed

All this astute political analysis is just making me gloomier and gloomier. Honestly, I have been looking for jobs in Ireland because I want to get out of the country the UK is becoming. I love the landscapes, our entire family has friends here, but this is not the country I chose in 1997.

ruthlessly dumped for political expediency, as the Tory Party do so well

If Labour would only take some lessons in ruthless political expediency, the GE would be a lot more competitive. Imagine a Labour Party led by David Milliband or Ed Balls fighting this election.