Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Ah!
One of those is the county next to mine!
I will watch with interest....

TM has called an election because she's in a strong position in the polls, Brexit is getting more and more vexing and will go tits up soon, which would damage her, and, I believe after hearing her quite disgraceful speech this morning, she thought about the result of the Turkish referendum and thought "well I'll have some of that".

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
Given the news about the Crown Prosecution Service & CON expenses probe looks like this was a key factor behind TMay's decision

Kate Allen‏@KateAllen
Tory MP previously averse to early election told me a couple of weeks ago this was 'more serious than you think'

Kate Allen‏@KateAllen

May knows what the 1990s were like. She knows how damaging it is for a party to sit through a drip-drip of resignations/byelections.

Keep your eyes on this story. I'm not sure its run its course yet.

Yes, her speech was offensive and ugly. It sounded as if it was written by Paul Dacre. I don't think I've ever heard anything quite so partisan or unstatesman like before from a PM in a speech from Downing Street. And her reference to the 'unelected' house of lords. She didn't mention the enemies of the people aka supreme court judges. I think a line was crossed. It was stated she informed the Queen or maybe now she is called the 'unelected' head of state.

People in parliament don't fall in with everything she wants to do. Well, they were elected by part of the electorate. And it is parliaments job to have a say on legislation. Not just her gov't. 48% of people did not vote for Brexit. And it can never be known how many voted for the tories version, as it was never consulted on the types. Norway or New Guinea?

Born, I thought of Turkey as well. She is not happy with parliament and wants more power. You do get the feeling she'd like to cast aside opposition like Erdogan. It all feels a bit weird at the moment.

Reminder of this from last month:

RedToothBrush Sat 04-Mar-17 18:34:19
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4280950/Downing-Street-deeply-worried-police-probe.html
Downing Street is 'deeply worried' about police probe into election expenses that could threaten Theresa May's Commons majority

[[www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/election-fraud-inquiry-rocks-no-10-w8r5cdmn2?CMP=Sprkr--Editorial--thetimes--News--Imageandlink--Statement--Unspecified-_-TWITTER&linkId=35114977
Election fraud inquiry rocks No10]]

There were 29 seats originally implicated. They were mainly marginal.

The Mirror/C4 new list was:
1)Wells - James Heappey, 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 7,585 votes.
2)Northampton North 2nd: Labour by 3245 votes.
3)North Cornwall - Scott Mann 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 6,621 votes
4)Weaver Vale - Graham Evans 2nd: Labour by 806 votes.
5)Sherwood - Mark Spencer 2nd: Labour by 4647 votes
6)Thornbury and Yate - Luke Hall 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 1495 votes.
7)Kingston - James Berry 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 2834 votes
8)Broxtowe - Anna Soubry 2nd: Labour by 4287 votes
9)Amber valley - Nigel Mills 2nd: Labour by 4205 votes
10)Morecambe and Lunesdale - David Morris 2nd: Labour by 4,590 votes.
11)Yeovil - Marcus Fysh - 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 5313 votes.
12)Pudsey - Stuart Andrew 2nd: Labour by 4,501 votes.
13)Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Oliver Colvile 2nd: Labour by 523 votes.
14)Erewash - Maggie Throup 2nd: Labour by 3584 votes.
15)Lincoln - Karl McCartney 2nd: Labour's by 1,443 votes.
16)Torbay - Kevin Foster 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 3,286 votes
17)South Thanet - Craig Mackinlay 2nd: UKIP by 2,812 votes
18)Nuneaton - Marcus Jones 2nd: Labour by 4,882 votes
19)Cannock Chase - Amanda Milling 2nd: Labour by 4,923 votes
20)Cheltenham - Alex Chalk 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 6,516 votes
21)Dudley South - Mike Wood 2nd: Labour by 4,270 votes.
22)Sutton and Cheam - Paul Scully 2nd: Liberal Democrat by 3,921 votes
23)Bury North - David Nuttall 2nd: Labour by 378 votes
24)Stroud - Neil Carmichael
25)Camborne & Redruth - George Eustice
26)Rossendale and Darwen - Jake Berry
27)Hazel Grove - William Wragg
28)Carlisle - John Stevenson
29)Mary Robinson - Cheadle

Its said that the case will go to the CPS in the next two weeks.

From the Time Article:

Ministers, aides and Tory MPS have all told the Times that the issue is high on the agenda inside No10 and at Conservative HQ. "The problem for No 10 is that they do not know where it will end and they do not know who is leaking against them" a Tory source said "They are deeply worried about this".

and
"One source close to No 10 said the subject was "occupying as much as 20 per cent of non government head space".

It now thought to be less than a dozen cases under investigation, and up to six could be forced to go to by-elections.

Look at the list above. Anyone what to guess why No 10 'head space' is very worried. Its a hit list of LD targets... Good one. Ones what go on my list for the next election. A by-election would work better for the LDs too.

Actually, JRM stood up in parliament and said she told the people before parliament knew as a sort of sign that power/democracy now lies with the people first of all, to paraphrase. Really a Turkey attitude to Parliament.

But she told the 'unelected' head of state before she told the electorate. To use her term.

Most pleased indeed that the CPS are pressing ahead with the expenses investigation. I hope it haunts them.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/what-general-election-2017-mean-12910734
What does the GE 2017 mean for Greater Manchester?

The MEN have spent the day trying to find out the implications for Gorton. They are none the wiser.

Two other interesting points in the article: Andy Burnham will not stand again regardless of the Greater Manchester Mayor Election result. The timing pretty much means he can't. I would imagine the situation would be the samNe for the Labour Liverpool MP Steve Rotheram which is standing for the Greater Liverpool Mayor position.

It means there will no longer be by-elections in either seat.

There is also the question over Simon Danczuk MP who is currently suspended from the Labour Party.

No word on George Osborne and whether he intends to stand again or not. My gut feeling is that he won't and we'll get an announcement on that in the next couple of days.

NW is key battle ground for the Conservatives. May needs to win big here. Expect her to campaign a lot in the NW and in the West Midlands. As well as the SW.

The problem for No 10 is that they do not know where it will end and they do not know who is leaking against them" a Tory source said "They are deeply worried about this".
What on earth is that supposed to mean? That actually there a many more seats where there are some issues/investigations so they are worried someone is telling the CPS about it and they will be even more in the shit?

List of Labour MPs who are apparently standing down and the most likely Labour successor to stand for the seat:

Pat Glass, Durham North West
(No names in the hat yet)

Steve Rotheram, Liverpool Walton
(Theresa Griffin MEP for the North West)

Andy Burnham, Leigh
(Councillor Jo Platt, an Executive Member on Wigan Council)

Ronnie Campbell, Blyth
(Councillor Laura Pidcock, TUC worker)

Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
(No names in the hat yet)

Alan Johnson, Hull West and Hessle
(Three possibilities: Joe Riches, David Prescott and Darren Hale).

I'm probably in a minority here, but I've always thought an early GE is best for the country in this situation.

May will almost certainly remain PM, but after the GE she'll have:

• her own mandate from the country - which morally she needs before taking action that will affect UK trade & the economy for the next few decades
• a sufficiently strong position within her own party to do a Brexit deal - if one is at all possible in time. There isn't a "May wing" in the party and imo she has been significantly hampered by this.

She has 2 additional reasons for a GE now:

• before umpteen Tory MPs have their 2015 election overturned and they and / or Tories in Central Office face criminal charges
• before Corbyn retires / falls under a political or physical bus - or is pushed under one by the PLP. He is the most incredible gift that any Tory Leader could ever wish for.

RTB: it won't take 10-15 years to split Labour, it will happen after the election over the next few years. They are going to be decimated & they'll need to regroup to survive.

But equally I think it's possible the Tories may split after the Brexit deal.

An strong election result will considerably strengthen May's hand to get the deal done. But ultimately the deal will either be too soft for the hard nuts or too hard for the moderates.

What on earth is May going to put on the Brexit manifesto? Hard Brexit and all the Remain and soft Leave Tories could potentially vote against; soft and the hard nuts will be up in arms.

It will not doubt be similarly poorly and hurriedly constructed and vague and inaccurate as the Brexit white paper.

Good luck to whoever has to write the NI manifesto.

Remembering the leaks / statements from those 2 Tories on the 2015 GE bus, I suspect that the Tories problem is deep, rather than wide
i.e. it's not that more seats are affected, but that what Tory Central Office did wrt expenses was far more deliberate and organised than has yet come out.

Big Choc, I don't disagree with you.

I don't particularly want a GE election now, but I do agree with what you say.

Philip Webster‏*@Pwebstertimes*

Am told May was 'last man standing'. everyone who mattered wanted election inc Hammond. Over recent days challenged them to make their case.

www.politico.eu/article/eu-hopes-snap-election-will-boost-mays-mandate/?utm_content=bufferb14e8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
EU hopes snap election will boost May’s mandate

Oh, another advantage of this GE is that it should finish off UKIP:

Their organisation has been in total chaos for several months.
Although they can still summon up activists for a byelection or two, they can't run a competent national campaign across hundreds of seats.
They've surprisingly few members and Nuttall rivals Corbyn as the most incompetent party leader ever

They'll probably have another major internal row during the campaign, too.

Brexit means the end of 2 party politics in this country
Labour and cons will split
Hopefully ukip will implode
Lib dems may benefit from above

They'll probably have another major internal row during the campaign, too

And another public punch up.

edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/04/18/uk-germany-intv-amanpour-norbert-roettgen.cnn

An interesting point of view that

• the GE is going to polarise things even more (see a whole camplaign about Brexit again etc... I'm wondering how many lies will be told again??)
• that TM has made the Tories a pro-Brexit party. I'm wondering where this leaves the conservatives that did vote for Remain. Will they recognise themselves in the Tory party now?? If not, who are they going to vote for and how will that affect the votes?
• that the GE is also destroying the little hope that we could go back from the referendum and see the UK stay in the EU.

Btw, can someone (misti?) tell me if they actually have given the right to vote to all the Brits in the EU, regardless of how long they have been living in the EU? I'm wondering how this will swing the vote too.

Badders if yu are right and this is the end of a two party system, then this will be one good thing coming out of Brexit.

Politics and choosing the best route for a country doesn't work with just two polarised ideologies and nothing in between.

I hadn't thought of the people who may lose their seats because of potential, alleged electoral fraud.

It is a gift to the Tories. I don't know what it will do for the country though. An election to resolve the issues brought by a referendum. With NI and Scotland running it on the union.

May is saying it is a fight on Brexit.
Corbyn is talking about the NHS, education etc.

The Dup say it is an election on the Union. But there are no Con's in NI anyway, so will have no effect on Westminster.
The SNP can only lose seats. What will 3 or 13 seats loss say? Is it about the union or about Brexit?

The Tories want to wipe back up UKIP's votes.

Is it to be able to not walk away with no deal? Like some in Con party want. I don't think it will make any difference from the EU27's position on Brexit. Their line is 'you can't have your cake and eat it'. After Boris said the UK 'could have their cake and eat it'.

Will May still be in power when the future trade agreement is being negotiated?

Yes, her speech was offensive and ugly. It sounded as if it was written by Paul Dacre.
I noticed she slipped in her usual mention of 'working people', as if the young, the very old, the disabled and unemployed just don't matter.

Btw, can someone (misti?) tell me if they actually have given the right to vote to all the Brits in the EU, regardless of how long they have been living in the EU? I'm wondering how this will swing the vote too.

This was in the manifesto but never actioned. So only Brits who have been abroad less than 15 years can vote, and then only if they can organisé a proxy, because postal voting is always a disaster.

The LDs need to organise proxy voters in as many constituencies as possible. Many overseas voters are natural tories, but almost all are extremely concerned about Brexit.

"Is it to be able to not walk away with no deal?"

I've worded that badly. Some Tories want to be able to walk away with no deal. Scorched earth. That would not be good. I think May wants the power/mandate to stop this from happening.

The 3.47am Amber Rudd's moment will be fun.