Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

See, that's where I can never agree with you Howabout : my experience of the SNP and its voters is that they are left of centre. Not Tartan Tories at all.

One of the reasons I moved towards them was because I felt that the Labour Party had become too right wing and felt that Blair had sold his soul and was doing things/not repealing/exploring things that Thatcher only ever dreamt of doing (Tuition fees, beginning the process of privatisation of the NHS, ESA/Work Capability assessments/penalising SIngle Mothers).

If I'm honest, that's one of the reasons I am so bitter about the Labour Party and that's even before factoring in the Iraq War

Now, if John Smith had lived.... all those what might have beens Labour might not have sold its soul

I look forward to the day, in an Independent Scotland, when a new left wing party (I hesitate to call it Labour as I think it is now so tainted) can re-establish itself. I might even vote for it

Just caught up with the excellent Guardian article on the nonsense that is the "Progressive Alliance". Since Pretty responded in kind to my Tartan Tory SNP comment I will go so far as to say, given 2010, anyone who doesn't understand that if you don't vote Labour you effectively vote Conservative probably actually is a Conservative.

Bit disappointed to see the Guardian was, as usual, too lazy to do a proper analysis of Scotland and just labelled it 100% SNP - does highlight the irrelevance you become by voting SNP in Westminster elections - there is a reason Sinn Fein don't take their seats. Also possibly the reason Mhairi Black has publicly stated her irrelevance as a Westminster MP - slight paraphrasing as I can't remember the reference for the exact quote.

If I were to vote Labour in the constituency where I live I would most certainly be giving my vote to the Conservatives.

John Redwood is keeping those laughs coming:

"A visit to one of England’s vineyards taught me that England makes some good white wines. Plenty of good Australian & Californian reds too."

Michael Crick‏**@MichaelLCrick**

"We're not allowed to answer your questions," say workers at factory being visited by Theresa May

Michael Crick‏**@MichaelLCrick**
Workers in clear breach of company policy in not talking. Policy is be "open & honest ... even when it's difficult
(Has pic of saying above)

Its all very Orwellian.

woman It's Amy Siskind.

Looks like Jeremy Corbyn is trying to point out how inaccessible May is:

Jeremy Corbyn MP‏ @jeremycorbyn
Theresa May is refusing to defend her record in TV debates with me & is determined to hide from the British people throughout this campaign.

Everyone agin May is a saboteur or a separatist. Were those saboteur headlines straight from number 10?

Bit odd that a GSK questioning doesn't include what is the future of pharma post brexit. In light of medicines being outside EU. Q+A session seemed a bit 'organised'. Tuition fees, how are the Tories going to ensure young people get on house ladder down south. Not what what Tories are going to do in brexit negotiations to try to ensure the UK will retain jobs in pharma.

It feels questions were vetted and then she called upon those picked.

capx.co/its-not-inequality-that-gets-people-angry-its-unfairness/
It’s not inequality that gets people angry – it’s unfairness

V good article.

EU have stated EMA has to be located inside the EU. It is not part of brexit negotiations. It is rather a consequence of brexit and the UK will have no say whatsoever where it will be relocated.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39658610

According to NS anyone in Scotland with any objection to SNP totalitarian rule is posing a threat to Scotland.

This is in her launch pitch for the Council Elections under STV. I am voting for 4 councillors from 9 candidates. There are 2 Labour, 2 SNP and 1 of everyone else. In what Universe is a Labour or Liberal vote one for the Conservatives and yet she persists?

Howabout: you are actually arguing the Independence supporters' case. Scotland never makes a difference to what Westminster Government we get (Ok, in the interest of accuracy we made a difference twice: two unstable governments with tiny/no majority which didn't last the course ). Even if every single constituency in Scotland had voted Labour in 2015, we'd have still had a Conservative Government

In 2010, even with the SNP seats, Labour wouldn't have been able to form a government. Labour and the LibDems together STILL didn't have a majority - and even with the 6 SNP seats would to have reached the threshold.

So how you can hold the failure of Labour to win a majority on the SNP and not where the majority of votes/constituencies are (clue, it's not in Scotland) is beyond me

Pretty Do you think John Smith would have been that different to Tony Blair politically? Maybe no Iraq, but I met him and in terms of what he was discussing with us in relation to business he was a pragmatist who would have been pro enabling business, he struck me as being more of a centre politician than a left winger, very much on the same ground as Blair. He won over some naturally conservative businessmen (not actually Tories because this was the Thatcher / Lilley taking a wrecking ball to business era) A less divisive and more ethical character for sure, definitely the best PM we never had, but in terms of his politics?

Kaija as a Lexiter I would say you might as well actually vote Conservative then and get proper Brexit.

Pretty are you really discounting the ability of 50 Scottish Labour MPs to reshape the Labour Party from within? - why do you think it is in such a mess? Do you think NS undermining EM at every turn had no effect on the electorate in England and Wales? Do you think the SNP do anything other than undermine Labour in Westminster, Holyrood and Scotland and rUK continuously?

Do you disregard the role of Gordon Brown in trying to rebuild social justice despite TB and Mandy? Do you cast aside the contribution of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling in dealing with the 2008 fallout? Do you think there were never any good mitigating Scottish Tory MPs before the teachers decided to wage all out targeted war on their seats and the education of the children in them?

If Scotland becomes Independent we will still be shackled to the economic reality of the rUK with even less say.

Mo4D there is an element of truth in that in a FPTP race, as I have just argued re voting anything other than Labour in a GE. However the Council elections are local and under STV and it is Labour, not the Tories or the SNP, who are already in control of the councils she is after.

Mo4D just seen your earlier post re Tartan Tories. A part of me agrees that maybe full independence will be the only way to get rid of the SNP as long as we can go for the "Softest" Independence possible.

May's speech to a room full of people banned from free speech has promised to keep the international development fund. There was a lot of talk of getting rid of this. It was popular with the right wing.

Tim Montgomerie @montie

Told @RuthDavidsonMSP was influential in decision to retain 0.7% aid commitment. My source: "Difficult to overstate Ruth's influence on PM"

Ruth Davidson has previously said she would stand for Westminister if she could have the role of International Development Secretary.

I wonder if this is a pitch for Conservatives who might like Davidson and see her as a softer/more liberal part of the Cons in contrast to misgivings and concerns about May. Plus there is an appeal to parts of the Scottish electorate there.

Is that trade or aid though?

And/or

Davidson intends to stand for Westminister and is being lined up for a job. If she's ambitious you'd expect her to at some point. It wouldn't be surprising if she would like to be PM and might be being lined up for that after May does go.

Also

Kamal Ahmed‏*@bbckamal*

Philip Hammond tells me government needs "flexibility" on taxes. Hints that Tories will abandon pledge of no increases in tax, NI or VAT.

Hammond seen to be getting his way, will appeal to some even if it does mean an increase in taxes simply because he's viewed as one of the few who isn't a kamikaze nutjob. Also hints that he has power and influence with May.

Again pushing the idea that the party might hand less right wing too.

I'm not convinced that they will soften approach on Brexit / Right wing agenda though. The actions May has made (as opposed to what comes out of her mouth) suggest otherwise.

I might have to go to bed and hide under a duvet for the next five years, the latest gem of policy change being proposed is to cut the international aid budget. Forget soft power, ethics, fostering equality and the development of sound government in the rest of the world, being a global player....

We really want to make ourselves the pariah of the world.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/21/conservative-cuts-overseas-aid-millions-lives-british-spending

OK I won't go back to bed!

Love that article RTB Very good explanation of the difference between communism and unbridled liberalism otoh and socialism and social conservatism oto.