Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

I was trying to reassure myself that he might be leaning towards scaremongering but I think that it stands up to scrunity

she is happy for Tory MPs UNDER POLICE INVESTIGATION to stand as candidates in this election.

If we saw another country do that, especially in the developing world, we would be aghast. It is the most obvious case of a bent democracy.

I dunno - just over the channel, we have a presidential election in Sunday in which two of the four main candidates are under judicial investigation. One of those two - who could conceivably get the largest number of votes in the first round - is under investigation for more than one offence. In both cases, the investigations concern the use of public funds.

But unless everybody against the tories agrees to vote for the same alternative party there is no chance.

No, if Theresa May can be denied the big majority she craves, she can be made to look stupid, a timewaster and a moneywaster.

I'm having a good look at this Electoral Calculus stuff and 2D political mapping.

In its explainer here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polmap2d.html

It identifies eight tribes. They are
Common Sense (28%)
Right Wing Nationalist (Only slightly right-wing, mildly nationalist)
Don't think of themselves as having particularly strong political opinions, despite supporting similar policies to the "Our Britain" segment. Clear preference for low tax economy, opposition to immigration.

Our Britain (26%)
Nationalist (Nationalist)
Closed perception of what Britishness is. Anti-immigration, government should put Brits first at all costs, broadly isolationist in outlook.

Progressive (12%)
Internationalist, economic moderate (Mildly left of centre, strongly internationalist)
Open, internationalist and inclusive view of Britain, comfortable with immigration. Belief in the welfare state, balanced view towards tax and the economy.

Socialist (9%)
Left-wing internationalist (Left-wing internationalist)
Pro-immigration, pro-welfare state, pro-redisitribution of wealth, internationalist outlook.

Free Liberal (7%)
Right-wing (Right-wing internationalist)
Strong faith in the market, little interest in socially conservative ideas. Strongly pro-business, the most opposed to the welfare state. The most personally optimistic.

Swing (7%)
Internationalist right-wing (Internationalist, economic moderate)
Mixture of views. Support an equal society, internationalist outlook, hard stance on benefits, support a low tax economy.

New Britain (6%)
Internationalist right-wing (Internationalist right-wing)
Open capitalist economy, pro-immigration, pro-single market, supportive of a low tax economy. Business friendly, internationalist, compassionate view of society.

Community (5%)
Left-wing nationalist (Left-wing nationalist)
Redistribution of wealth, scepticism of business and capitalism. More closed off view of Britain and broadly anti-immigration.

New Britain and Free Liberal are quite close and might be classed as a single group.

On the retail sales drop - Andrew Sentance (ex BoE, now pwc) points out this is the biggest drop since 2010 but that was the point that VAT increased.

Aside from that, it is the biggest quarter-quarter drop in retail sales since the mid 1990's.

www.pwc.co.uk/press-room/press-releases/retail-sales-data-april-2017.html

You're right Motheroffourdragons - Katie Hopkins' rant should gain the SNP a few more votes

She just can't help herself..... demonstrating her ignorance yet again with her "If you are sick to the back teeth of the Ginger Dwarf from the North spouting her nonsense in Westminster..." comment.

She is so ignorant that she probably doesn't even realise that NS doesn't. speak. in. Westminster.

But there again, there are many ignorant people^ . There was one on the "Who would you like to see defeated" thread who just couldn't get it into their skull - despite repeated explanations from different posters (including those that are not SNP supporters) - that the Holyrood MSPs are not affected by the GE and that the Scottish Government will continue to be SNP whatever the results of the SNP . There was also one lovely comment by a different poster that "who cares about Scotland, they're not important in a GE?"^ - yet another recruiting tool for the Independence supporters

I'm sure there are exceptions but not many ....

@mrjohnnymac18: Conservative voters fall into one of these six categories. #GE2017 #GeneralElection #GE17 #Election2017 #UKelection

The so called Beast of Bolsover lays in on the line as to why Tedious Theresa has called the election.

I don't vote for Skinner's party, but I do have a high regard for him as a hard working MP with integrity. Witness that he was one of 13 Labour voters who didn't vote for the GE. He didn't say why, but no doubt Tedious Theresa's blatant opportunism was one factor. As he points out, she had no difficulty in getting Brexit through Parliament, so that is not the reason.

I hope he is right in his predictions.

Sorry but I can't keep up with the entirety of the thread.

What should we do? I do not want to be a passive audience member. I have been badgering my MP, party leaders and my local Labour party branch since Tuesday. I have told them I would only support them, if they work together against the Tories. What else should I do?

That quote from the EU that we can always change our minds was obviously meant to be a bit of encouragement to organise.

Not all in category 4 vote Tory!

I will have been voting for 47 years now and have never voted Tory in a GE and have absolutely no intention of starting. In the unlikely event that a ballot paper presented me with a choice of Tory or UKIP I would spoil my ballot.

Britain Elects‏*@britainelects*
Conservative GAIN Kenton East (Harrow) from Labour.

order-order.com/2017/04/21/tory-mps-face-deselection/
Tory MPs who could be deselected
Jack Lopresti - Filton and Bradley Stoke (Affair) - was leave (note this was 48% leave constituency)
Alan Haselhurst - Saffron Walden (He's 80) - was remain
David Mackintosh - Northampton South (Loan Scandal) - was remain

John Redwood‏*@johnredwood*
You do not have to buy German or French cars. There is a good choice of models, prices & specifications available from UK car factories.

Ian Dunt is asking journos to find out what he drives...

It looks like Labour suspended Simon Danczuk is going to stand again as his seat is not open for Labour applications to stand.

I'm not sure thar all business owners will vote tory this time (if indeed they ever do; not all business people vote right. I've owned a business and am married to a small business owner and I would never vote Tory).

Think some bosses will have a dilemma this time: imagine if you're a haulage company owner? Not sure that they will be voting for brexit.

PainInTheEar many thanks for that great Tom King summary. Do you know the name of the FB poster on the Trump thread who does regular summaries of authoritarian policies of the 45? I can't find one in current thread.

There is a good choice of models, prices & specifications available from UK car factories.

Yes, this is like the advice given to a friend as a young man - 'take my advice, son, buy a Rolls'.

Redwood is Mr Bean's right wing cousin. Total chump.

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton*

Sampling shows Unite's Gerard Coyne on 46% and Len McCluskey on 44%, according to source.

That looks like it might get really messy.

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/04/21/why-i-reported-labour-leave-s-donation-to-ukip
The Labour Brexit group which donated to Ukip

Article by Seb Dance (aka as that Labour MEP who held up sign pointing to Nigel Farage saying 'he's lying to you')

Not satisfied with this explanation I took the matter to the Electoral Commission, who havenow decided to open an investigation into the £18,500 donation, casting fresh doubt on the group's assurances.

Labour Leave under investigation. Kate Hoey standing to re-election.
That's a good look.

Anyone see this European Commission document outlining approaches to Brexit. This is not the finished article. It is a working document.

g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-20-14-31_01.pdf

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/21/murdoch-sky-deal-general-election-ofcom-21st-century-fox?CMP=twt_gu
Enquiry into Murdoch's Sky deal delayed until after general election
Culture secretary extends deadline for Ofcom to submit its report into 21st Century Fox’s £11.7bn bid

There is nothing to see here. Move along quietly.

On the Scottish polls analysis by Bigchoc upthread. I think 5 seats would be the outer limit of Tory and then there may also be a much better than predicted outturn for the LibDems if they play the Unionist/Pro EU cards well.

I disagree that this result would lead to permanent Labour wipe out in Scotland. I think this may well be the Result which gives the Labour Party the opportunity to regroup and call the SNP for what they are which is Nationalist Tartan Tories - no wonder voters don't have a use for UKIP in Scotland.

I read that description of Tory voters more in the sense of a Venn diagram with varying degrees of overlap

eg not all business owners/pensioners/and even the extremely wealthy will be Conservative voters .... although I suspect that Numbers 5 and 6 are pretty much enclosed circles.

In the same way that not all Leavers are racist - some voted that way for entirely reasonable and thought through reasons (but many of them thought they were voting for a soft Brexit) - but all most racists voted Leave and probably swung the vote .

I'm trying to cleverly word a 7) people who should know better.
Like DH who voted Tory in 2015 despite them not being his cup of tea politically but he thought the MP on a personal level was great for the area, and got a bit of a shock when he realised the twat was voting against measures that would help the constituents. DH isn't an idiot usually either.

That inquiry report being kicked into touch.

'14. For reasons of legal certainty, the Agreement should ensure, in the United Kingdom and in the EU27, the continued recognition of diplomas, certificates and other evidence of formal qualification obtained in any of the Union Member States before the withdrawal date, in accordance with Union law rules applicable before that date. It should also provide for arrangements relating to procedures for recognition which are ongoing on the withdrawal date. '

So if you've obtained your qualification before Brext, you're good wrt mutual recognition in the EU. Those coming after... .

The SNP has some very peculiar policies for a Tartan Tory party.

Some even I've heard of, and I don't live anywhere near Scotland:
• measure to increase security and stability for tenants in the private rented sector
• powers to set a cap on rent increases for sitting tenants
• consulting on a national standard for private rented homes to ensure a good basic standard of accommodation
• landlord registration system
• scrapping tuition fees
• scrapping prescription charges
• opposing the rape clause