Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Whatwould I am pleased your hibernation lasted 44 seconds. Though as I say is it aid or trade budget?

Mind you this just came out of the mouth of a woman who said at least 7 times on record there would be no early election.

There is a massive disconnect between what May says and what she actually does.

We are going to let this happen ?

Yes probably.

Though that expectation could depress turnout out and make odd things happen too. Which is why you should vote anyway regardless of how unlikely the alternative is.

Red True but then allowing the population of Sierra Leone to be wiped out by Ebola (the slightly hyperbolic example used in the article) would probably be seen as counter to developing trade relations I suppose......

However yes some of the best aid projects I have witnessed, for instance supporting girls in South East Asia so they do not get sucked into the sex trade, would probably not meet Prittis idea of aid. It might just be a little glint of light if Ruth Davidson kicks her into touch.

Howabout: Actually I have massive arguments with how Gordon Brown both laid the foundations for, and dealt with, the financial crash of 2008. He was not the "saviour of the world" he claimed to be - but that would take far too long on this thread to go into. (I had a multi-million £ Icelandic customer and was in the middle of a new major deal when the Kreppa hit, so I learnt far more than I ever expected to need to)

Alistair Darling I have slightly more sympathy for as he did try to warn about the coming crisis and was excoriated for it.

Gordon Brown's "Vow" paved the way for Cameron's EVEL - so that it is highly unlikely that an MP for a Scottish constituency can ever lead the Labour Party again.

It could be argued that it is Gordon Brown who is responsible for the mess we are in. If he'd called the snap election early on, when he might have won (not that I agree with snap elections) and we'd never have had the Coalition Government and then the subsequent melt down of the LibDems.

And ergo we wouldn't have Brexit - but there again, that is something you do want.

BTW: I've never come across any teachers who talk politics to their pupils: neither in my own (ancient ) experience, nor my mum's (albeit she retired 20 years ago), nor (more relevantly ) in ds' experience or that of his friends at other schools. Not during the local, Scottish or national elections, nor during the Indyref. The closest ds gas experienced to that is some anti Trump discussions before and since the presidential elections (as one of his teachers is very obviously Muslim and was planning a family holiday to Disney World not happening now)

Ron: I don't disagree with you that John Smith would probably been a pragmatic centrist. But I don't think he would have challenged Article 4 in the way that TB did and he had have come up with more progressive policies, reversed some any would have been nice of the anti-union legislation that Thatcher & the Conservatives had pushed through and got business on board because he was a reasonable guy. but we'll never know

I remember reading somewhere that John Major and John Smith, born into the other's circumstances, would have mirrored their eventual positions. But there again, I suppose all our politics grow out of our individual experiences.

It's Amy Siskind. Cheers pain
medium.com/@Amy_Siskind/week-22-experts-in-authoritarianism-advise-to-keep-a-list-of-things-subtly-changing-around-you-so-fdf7960cacd6

Siskind's lists are excellent, I hope King's list becomes a regular thing, as the frog boiling approach, to extreme right wing authoritarianism is working a treat in England.

If there isn't a monitoring list somewhere, it needs to be started for historical and hopefully legal record for future reference.

So if you've obtained your qualification before Brext, you're good wrt mutual recognition in the EU.
Will English degrees, no longer be recognised in EU post 2019?

I think there is some potential for upsets in this election. Talking to my boss this afternoon, the atmosphere at work is one of disbelief in the utter madness of it all (supply chains a big issue and plans to move some production to Eastern Europe are well advanced).

We both agreed that if the result was decided by our friends and colleagues, it'll be a LD landslide. Obv we know this won't happen, but angry remainers will be very motivated to vote, so turn-out variations may result in some surprises. I think there is potential for big tory majorities in some remain-voting areas to be slashed.

"Kaija as a Lexiter I would say you might as well actually vote Conservative then and get proper Brexit. "

Howabout, I just don't know where to start with this. It is really depressing.

Snowball and Squealer: Mc Luskey and Corbyn. Poor old Coyne got the ice pick treatment.
I congratulate Len McCluskey on his victory and would urge the entire union to pull together in the interests of our members, and not least to work for a Labour victory in the general election.
www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/21/general-election-2017-campaign-brexit-corbyn-may-farron-politics-live
This is not the Labour party.

Peregrina and anyone else, want to be a Remain MP?

£500 each
www.parliament.uk/get-involved/elections/standing/

We've got our candidate sorted. I would like to see a really good candidate stand against May, but it would have to be someone nationally recognised with some clout.

Re the Tory candidate who doesn't want to be voted for:

The candidate has to sign showing that they consent to nomination - the rules are slightly different in Scotland to England and Wales, but the consent is the same as far as I can see. Therefore on the face of it, it looks as though the Tories have committed electoral fraud. If it's not too late, he needs to have sight of the forms to see what the signature is.

There was a UKIP candidate recently who didn't complete the forms correctly - I think he filled it in with initials, as a result, his nomination was invalid and the seat was uncontested.

Interesting, thanks Peregrina, will get on the local case myself. Lib Dems are certainly very well organised. I liked what misti said earlier: it's amazing that so many alleged electoral fraudsters are up for office. Allegedly.

Harry Cole‏*@MrHarryCole*

Had second old school Tory MP - in all seriousness - refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy" on the phone today. That's twice in a week.

Urgh, Yuk!

Ew, I've worked with men like that. Men who are sexist and generally dismissive but go all weird and submissive if you speak to them in an angry and authoritative way. Creepy as hell (sick face).

Yuck. That's the most Tory thing ever.

refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy" Some moola to be made in therapy for this lot.

Oh dear more people jumping from May's ship .

refer to the Prime Minister as "mummy"

So that's why they liked Loathsome - 'speaking as a mother' which sadly for her, Theresa can't.

Has anyone seen this? Electoral Commission to investigate Leave.EU's referendum spending

The Electoral Commission has begun an investigation into Leave.EU’s EU referendum spending return. This followed an assessment which concluded that there were reasonable grounds to suspect that potential offences under the law may have occurred.

The investigation is focused on whether one or more donations – including of services – accepted by Leave.EU was impermissible; and whether Leave.EU’s spending return was complete.

The time taken to complete an investigation varies on a case-by-case basis. Once the investigation is complete, the commission will decide whether any breaches have occurred and, if so, what further action may be appropriate, in line with its Enforcement Policy. The outcome of concluded cases can be seen on the commission’s website.

So we are going into an election with 30 MPs from the governing party under police investigation and now the way that the cause of this new election is also being investigated. We are officially Azerbaijan (apologies to any Azerbaijanis).