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Brexit

Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

993 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/04/2017 11:48

Since the last update 12 days ago:

  1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
  2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
  3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
  4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
  5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
  6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
  7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
  8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

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Cailleach1 · 20/04/2017 23:12

But Farage hardly went to a handful of committee meetings on Fishing. All the decisions were made by the fonctionnaires in the Commission, seemingly. Now suddenly the EP is the crucial platform with great visibility and it is vital he stays to give UK input. Give me a break!

And I think his career before his political machinations is bigged up bigly. There is a good clip with James O'Brien where he goes on about all his sacrifices to do his job. But he had to leave an hour long radio interview after 20 mins 'cos his pat front was being pulled apart. There is also some article about how he wasn't the best performer in his previous life either by someone who knew him. Allegedly.

I would take anything he says with a pillar of salt. Remember he was holding court on how WTO tarrifs could be slapped on things. Until he was caught out in what he was advocating as being against WTO rules. I think everything is seasoned with a bullsh*t angle.

NancyWake · 20/04/2017 23:16

If only Farage would turn into a pillar of salt.

squoosh · 20/04/2017 23:22

'Now suddenly the EP is the crucial platform with great visibility and it is vital he stays to give UK input. Give me a break!'

I know! Nothing at all to do with the big fat pension he'll be eligible for in a couple of years time. €6000 per month I believe. No, definitely nothing to with that...

RedToothBrush · 20/04/2017 23:29

Louise Mensch @louisemensch
Are you feeling comfortable @Nigel_Farage? #Assange #Farage

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/11/farage-assange-shameless-illiberal-alliance
Farage meets Assange in a shameless illiberal alliance
From March 11 2017

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RedToothBrush · 20/04/2017 23:57

Britain Elects @britainelects
Blacon (West Cheshire & Chester) result:

LAB: 59.1% (+1.6)
CON: 21.8% (+4.0)
IND: 16.5% (+16.5)
LDEM: 2.7% (+2.7)

No Grn and UKIP as prev.

To understand this better:

LAB: 59.1% (+1.6)
CON: 21.8% (+4.0)
IND: 16.5% (+16.5)
LDEM: 2.7% (+2.7)
*UKIP: 0.0% (-16.9)
*GRN: 0.0% (-7.7)

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woman12345 · 21/04/2017 00:03

*UKIP: 0.0% (-16.9) interesting.

Cailleach1 · 21/04/2017 00:06

Clicking on your link red reminded me of something. and seeing blasted UKIP yet again.

Suzanne Evans (she who came third in 2015 General election in Shrewsbury and Atcham) was the celebrity guest on with Andrew Neil for his entire daily politics programme today. When asked if Nigel Farage should run, she said she thinks he should run again in South Thanet. She had her little quip about about how the Cons had behaved rather badly with their finances in the election in South Thanet. He let her get away with that without addressing the elephant that her party, UKIP are under investigation from OLAF (the European Commission anti -fraud unit). So is it only people from parties which are under investigation for fraud that should run in South Thanet, then?

Olaf investigate. It is up to the national authorities to prosecute.

skwawkbox.org/2017/04/13/olaf-email-ukip-fraud-investigation-ongoing-hints-at-wider-scope/

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/01/nigel-farage-among-ukip-meps-accused-of-misusing-eu-funds

woman12345 · 21/04/2017 00:08

@RVAwonk
Is Nigel Farage Roger Stone's "backchannel" to Julian Assange? Did they collude to weaponize DNC emails? What about the CIA documents

From the gorgeous US thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/2907040-Our-bigly-armada-is-somewhere-Watch-out-gentleman-Trump-cont?pg=18

Farage is absolutely a back channel.

SwedishEdith · 21/04/2017 00:08

Presume the Ind was UKIP?

prettybird · 21/04/2017 00:13

That Overton Window has been dragged so far to the right that it's preventing any debate the Tories haven't pre-approved. Another blog from Craig Murray to ponder...

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/04/can-anybody-find-significant-difference-mays-policies-british-national-party-manifesto-2005/

Amongst other things the BNP proposed drastically cutting immigration, leaving the EU, bringing back grammar schools, humanitarian aid to be reduced, foreign policy to be driven by "British Natiobal Interest" and not human rights arms sales to Saudi . Sound familiar? Hmm

And just to further rub in how far politics have moved since 2005, the BNP policy on the NHS was to the left of the current Conservative Party - probably only because they assumed that doing anything more radical was an anathema to even potential BNP voters Confused

woman12345 · 21/04/2017 00:24

Yes, that's true.prettybird. It's why it smells funny in England now. Thanks for posting it. And this one on the end of a free press:
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/20/politics/julian-assange-wikileaks-us-charges/

Cailleach1 · 21/04/2017 00:31

pretty, that 'leadership pitch' seems to match Mundell's mouth very well.

woman12345 · 21/04/2017 00:33

Always liked Craig Murray. Good geezer.

mathanxiety · 21/04/2017 01:36

I wonder if the May government will allow the US to storm the Ecuadorean Embassy and kidnap Assange? Or will they organise a coup in Ecuador..

The US intelligence community is still clearly really, really sore about Edward Snowden.

PattyPenguin · 21/04/2017 07:00

The mathematics of tactical voting. Oh dear.
www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/20/tactical-voting-to-beat-the-tories-does-the-maths-equal-a-coalition

HesterThrale · 21/04/2017 07:18

There's a lot of crowdfunding going on at the moment. I think people feel disenfranchised, that their vote is useless, and are desperate to make a difference/ protest somehow. Gina Miller's one has reached £180,000 in 2 days:

www.gofundme.com/whats-best-for-britain

Motheroffourdragons · 21/04/2017 07:41

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/04/2017 07:46

Scotland

In Scottish polls, Labour has crashed from 24% to 14%
LibDems from 8% to 4%

If this is just the Unionists lining up behind the Tories, that could mean - with the SNP % staying about the same:

. Tory 5-10 seats
. SNP all the rest

So we could have the crazy situation of
Scottish Lexiters helping elect Tory MPs to increase May's majority

and making Labour toxic to most of Scotland.
That would probably permanently kill off the Labour party there. Deservedly.

Since the Tories are hated by most Scottish voters, that would mean the SNP holding the overwhelming majority of seats longterm ...

Which would make the case for independence hard to refuse (except by force)
I wonder if we'll see civil unrest after 10 or 15 years of Tory rule, as at the start of the NI Troubles.

We need a skillful light touch here to keep the UK together, not She Who Must Be Obeyed.

PattyPenguin · 21/04/2017 09:12

I read that yesterday, I can't therefore see what the point of Gina Miller's campaign in Hester's link is.

Mother I think that campaign is a sign of what Paddy Ashdown talks about in his piece in the Independent:
"I have a suspicion that the surprise no one sees coming in this election will not be what happens inside the small, cramped circle where politicians and political parties live, but what happens when the voiceless millions of the moderate, progressive centre outside that circle demand to be heard. If you want to see what can happen when they do, look at what is happening now with Macron’s En Marche! movement in France."

I don't know how successful it will be in practical terms, but it shows that there is another section of society that now believes no-one in politics is listening to it.

RedToothBrush · 21/04/2017 09:17

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html
The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 2 : Political Extremes

Some 2d Electoral mapping

You can enter your own postcode in the first article to see how it fares and what it's predicting for the GE.

FWIW I think the GE prediction for my constituency is somewhat off especially if the rumours are true about who Labour intent to stand here. There are a number of big local issues going on which i suspect will influence things.

Still think the Tories will win here but i do think percentages will be quite different.

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RedToothBrush · 21/04/2017 09:47

www.cityam.com/263289/british-retail-sales-plummet-fastest-quarterly-rate-since?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=dvTwitter
British retail sales plummet at fastest quarterly rate since 2010

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Peregrina · 21/04/2017 09:49

"I have a suspicion that the surprise no one sees coming in this election will not be what happens inside the small, cramped circle where politicians and political parties live, but what happens when the voiceless millions of the moderate, progressive centre outside that circle demand to be heard."

Yes, up to a point, although Paddy Ashdown didn't see the rout coming to the LibDems at the last election. Admittedly, some of the lost seats were lost because of Tory fraud. Others would have been lost because Labour voters had lent a vote to Lib Dems to keep the Tories out, and obviously wouldn't bother the next time.

However, May preaching that she senses the country coming together is hogwash. As for her silly nonsense about opposition in Parliament, she couldn't have been given a clearer run. I don't doubt that she believes all this, but I am quite convinced that this is where Ashdown is right. The majority of the 48% haven't changed their minds, they feel more strongly than ever. Even if May does increase her majority, the genii is out of the bottle and won't go back in.

I do think the next few years are going to be extremely unpleasant. I also expect the UK to break up, although May will be gone by then.

Motheroffourdragons · 21/04/2017 10:55

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This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

whatwouldrondo · 21/04/2017 10:58

As far as Farage is concerned when I started work the City was full of his type, men (of course) got their jobs through networks and nepotism (not necessarily the public school version, there was also a strong tradition in the East End, Essex, and South of the river) did a bit of work in the morning then off to the pub at lunchtime to sink many pints, show your face at the office in the afternoon then stagger home via the station bar. The Big Bang and the takeover of stockbrokers and other financial services companies by global corporations made life difficult for those types and they gradually disappeared, though no doubt continue to pine for the good old days......

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 21/04/2017 11:02

Tom King‏ @tallgeekychap

THREAD: Looked at objectively, Theresa May is very clearly a political leader who, given free rein, would be a dictator.
9:56 am · 21 Apr 2017

Her history as Home Secretary is one of increasingly authoritarian rhetoric and policy, summarised by the "Go Home" vans.

Since becoming PM, govt proposed lists of foreign workers, forcing out foreign doctors, removing troops from international human rights law.

They’ve introduced a two-child policy on child tax credits, forcing women to prove they have been raped to receive their rightful benefits.

They’re bringing back grammars; introducing army cadet units at state schools. Because selection and militarism are academically important.

They're preventing universities from accepting international students. And they've utterly failed to protect EU citizens' rights.

She failed to condemn a Tory councillor’s petition – tho his local party suspended him – which tried to make opposing Brexit “treason”.

She failed to condemn front pages denouncing judges as ‘enemies of the people’ and Remainers as ‘saboteurs’.

She has consistently derided phantom ‘elites’ for trying to undermine ‘the will of the people’, despite being a Conservative Prime Minister.

In short, she’s presided over a government that has stolen UKIP’s clothes: @oflynnmep The number of policies Mrs May is lifting out of the UKIP GE15 manifesto is astonishing. Almost like we are in power, but not in office!

Her speech announcing the general election doubled down on all this. If it doesn’t shock you, it ought to.

She implied that other political parties differing from her opinion in any way were deviating from the national interest.

She demanded 'unity in Westminster' as if Parliament is a rubber stamp, a plaything for her personal vanity projects.

She said 'the country is coming together but Westminster is not' as though she deserves a standing ovation for her newfound Brexit zealotry.

(That’s also palpably untrue, as Yvette Cooper sensibly pointed out. Parliament voted overwhelmingly for Article 50…

… and also voted by 522 to 13 for the general election. Westminster could not be more united at precisely the time we need opposition.)

At this point, it is clear she believes that any opposition in Westminster creates ‘uncertainty and instability’.

She’s basically calling the election because there are 9 Lib Dem MPs, 1 Green MP and 57 SNP MPs who won’t play along.

She accused other parties of treating politics 'as a game' while knowingly turning politics into a game herself.

She is a political strongman in the body of a well-to-do, matronly upper middle class woman. The Tories’ nanny writ large.

Then there’s the real reason this election has been called. 30 Tory seats won in 2015 have been under police investigation for a long while.

Instead of waiting for those investigations to be completed – as any sane democracy would – Parliament voted through a snap election.

So now the Tories will make their own alleged corruption in 2015 moot by winning a bigger majority – enabled by other parties.

Worse still, Theresa May has said she is happy for Tory MPs UNDER POLICE INVESTIGATION to stand as candidates in this election.

If we saw another country do that, especially in the developing world, we would be aghast. It is the most obvious case of a bent democracy.

So, according to Theresa May, this election will be about Brexit. But it’s also about something else.

It’s about ensuring that Theresa May and the Tories’ corrupt, disastrous, and potentially illegal regime is shored up.

We are faced with the prospect of a dictatorial Prime Minister whose power was acquired on the back of a fascist media.

If you aren't scared, you should be.

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