Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Mess...not message Blooming auto correct.

As far as I can tell, the policies that Corbyn espouses are quite good - it's just that he is not a leader and he hasn't grown into the job, which he might have done.

The current situation is shit, but I intend to go down fighting. I want to be able to tell my grandchildren that I did my best to save their future.

Seconded, Mo4D.

Thirded mo4d and lala

So much for an increased Tory majority bringing about a softer Brexit Tory manifesto to guarantee end of free movement, leaving the single market and the ECJ/ECHR.

It's a Daily Mail link but, let's face it, they seem to have very direct channels of communication to the Tory top brass.

One insider said Tory Remainers would be required to sign up to the package, 'locking them in'. Including the pledges in the manifesto will also make it much harder for peers to block Brexit.

I agree that Blair was better at doing leadership. He was amazing at selling himself and his party. It's just a shame what he sold was not to my taste. Corbyn is terrible at leadership, but his actual policies are really not that left wing. They seem it because the Tories have gone so far right that arguing we should tax people who earn more money more than we tax poorer people and keeping the NHS a public service seem outrageous all of a sudden.

I am also of the opinion that just having 2 parties that bicker over the centre ground is not providing an effective opposition, so would not want labour to move back to the centre just to gain votes at any cost. I would like to see genuine choice between policies, not just a choice between logos.

But when the centre is moving further and further to the right should the labour party just keep following it until it ends up a little brother to the Tories or should it stand for what it believes in? Public option is being pulled to the right by a concerted effort from right wing media and political parties. It does not just happen magically. Perhaps we should be fighting against that move rather then just shrugging our shoulders and saying "well, it's what people want now".

I look forward to some prominent Leavers whining about things that they will be served up with in future - rising food prices, closure of local A & Es & GPs surgery, lack of decent school places etc., etc. Well, it's what you voted for.

It's a Daily Mail link but, let's face it, they seem to have very direct channels of communication to the Tory top brass.

An alternative explanation is that they are trying to force May's hand. This is what they expect her to deliver and they are the Daily Mail.

Either way, it's pretty depressing.

The problem is that other than ld there is no centrist party. And even they've realised pdq that brexit changed the game face by quickly rebranding themselves as a voice for the 48% and soft brexiteer.

Alex Wickham @ wikiguido
CCHQ caught on hop by early election: not enough names on candidates list to fill opposition-held seats

order-order.com/2017/04/20/cchq-caught-on-hop-not-enough-candidates-to-fill-seats/

Tories caught with pants down unprepared for election!

I'm actually NOT surprised by this. They have low membership as it is. Our local Tory party is aging and so short on numbers that last year one of the incumbent councillors had to restand despite not wanting to as there was no one else. She in her 80s.

I'm led to believe that our local MP stood last time saying he won't again because if abuse. It remains to be seen if he will stand again. The alternative is they will have to parachute an outsider in.

Expect lots of young Conservatives to mysteriously appear. (Except some of them might be reluctant to stand with exams during election period)

It doesn't bode well for quality of candidates and there knowledge of the area they are standing in. With such potential to actually be elected its not good. Many will probably be excited leavers and people who won't challenge or question the government direction.

I'm waiting with baited breath to see what my MP does...

I do appreciate that what i want and what is reality right now are very different things. There is simply no strong left of centre leadership in the labour party right now, so it is a pipe dream. Corbyn certainly can't deliver it and i cant see a viable replacement. For this reason i will be voting LD just to try and get the Tory MP out of this seat and have some sort of opposition to May. I feel pretty crap about the whole thing though

Do you think the UKIP candidates might defect to Tories and fill some of the gaps red?

At least young parachuted-in candidates give some laughs with their election material. Mine for 2015 (in a Lab/SNP battleground seat where the Conservatives had no chance) was hilarious. "I care deeply about ordinary people's concerns in... wherever the hell this is... and feel a deep connection to your region, where I went on holiday once as a child. Near there, anyway. Definitely somewhere in Scotland."

The Tories would be daft to field ex UKIP candidates on the Conservative party ticket. Most of them are spectacularly incompetent, so much so that it would become obvious even in a 7 week campaign.

Election Data @election_data
In our focus groups in Labour heartlands voters didn't know anything about Corbyn/McDonnell's past:

news.sky.com/story/sky-views-its-game-on-for-crush-corbyn-10843536
Sky Views: It's game on for Crush Corbyn

Mike Smithson @mikesmithsonpb
The true purpose of GE2017 will be confirmed in the CON candidate choices in Thanet S and LD-CON battlegrounds

If our MP (a remainer) doesn't stand again it will be interesting to see if they put in a leaver. It would be not understanding area well if the Tories did.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
May campaigned for Remain and said no early election, now wants a Hard Brexit and an early election.

Calls this "strong leadership".

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Words: "We have mandate for Brexit to get on with job."

Action: Stops to get new mandate, interrupting job with needless general election.

Dan Ludlow @ninthplanet86
If May does a reshuffle and moves the "three brexiteers", UK will have gone backwards in working out its article 50 negotiating position.

This is a very interesting point.

In my dreams one of them becomes a Portillo Balls.

Yougov
First YouGov Westminster voting intention since general election called (18-19 Apr)
Con 48
Lab 24
LD 12
UKIP 7
Oth 9

24 point lead. Will be interesting to see details on that. Will try and look later.

rtb is the poll data interesting given its only 24pts given the 2020 election one showing more than 30pts against 'corbyns labour'? Or is it a little comparing apples and oranges?

If there is a candidate for a 'were you up for Portillo?' moment, I would like to see that honour go to old Deadwood Redwood - an arch Leaver in a strong Remain constituency. An even better bonus would be to see May lose her seat also.

I can't really see it happening, but you never know!

They have low membership as it is.
And mysterious funding streams, with this in mind.
Tory election expenses is something to monitor this time round.
Watch out for any Battle Bus type activity, and dubious national campaigning in local constituencies.

The 48% are co ordinating mass tactical voting exercise, although I know as you've said red this won't necessarily block tories.

The problem is that other than ld there is no centrist party I wonder how many wives and husbands of remain labour and remain lib dem and even tory candidates have asked them not to speak out for fear of retribution.

Callum May @callummay
Somewhere in London, a guest booker for Strictly Come Dancing is about to pick up a phone. "George Osborne's office, please" she will say.

Oh don't you just know it. What will be his gangnam moment. You've all seen how well he stands in the dominant power position with legs apart.

Screw the election can we all campaign for this to fill our screens for weeks on end.

www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/04/19/election-2017-the-no-nonsense-guide
Election 2017: The no-nonsense guide

Not Ian Dunt but good.

Britain Elects @BritainElects
4% of Britons expect a Labour majority; 63% a Conservative one.

(via YouGov)

Where is the fear of Corbyn? Where is the motivation for new or very weak Tory sympathisers to vote?

MPs are voting today to cancel Gorton. I'd guess it's off then.

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/farage-bottles-british-election-to-remain-in-the-european-parliament/#more-63160
FARAGE BOTTLES BRITISH ELECTION TO REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

Nigel Farage has announced that he may not run in the first elections to a fully sovereign UK Parliament for decades – because the European Parliament is more important.

I'm saying nothing...

Watch out for any Battle Bus type activity, and dubious national campaigning in local constituencies

May was in Bolton last night to launch her campaign. The MEN reported she was there for 10mins before being whisked off in a police escort to where her helicopter was waiting.

Capital to be made here if someone decides to make a real point of it and May is santitised and kept away from public in extreme fashion which is what I'm expecting.