Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Michelle O'Neill has stated that this election is about Brexit.

"Sinn Féin is ready to fight this election. We will go out and engage with the public who voted in the majority to stay in the European Union," she said.
www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39647754

Everyone is wooing the UUP.

Does Bob Marshall-Andrews count as the defection? Someone who hasn't been an MP for more than 6 years?

Major won the Tories a GE, after the poll tax made Maggie toxic and people were rioting against their policies.

The Tories were thrown out in the wilderness because of their years of sleazy scandals and Blair's phenomenal success - the Tories hate and have demonised him because of this.

Also, after Hague lost, the Tories gave into their activists and chose IDS, who made the Tories the really nasty party, then Howard was "something of the night"

After Foot, Labour went sane, but still had to wait several years before the voters would trust them again.
I expect the same phenomenon when Corbyn eventually goes, unless there is a real Brexit disaster - but don't underestimate the capacity to blame the EU and saboteurs for that

The 1992 election was very like 2015 imo

Labour predicted to win, Tory landslide

Obv brexit rather complicates things....

Is there something of a party shuffle going on then?

Are sane Labourites defecting to the LD's and Remain Tories opting for retirement? Or even joining the LDs themselves? Could it be that contrary to what the Deutsche Bank hopes, a Tory win may end up explicitly hard Brexit instead of diluted by more sensible Brexit or even Remain MPs?

It's such a short time since the Referendum, I can see the Leave vote coming back and participating in the GE even though apparently this isn't normal voting practice for a significant chunk of Leave voters.

I agree Badders, but think unfortunately the Labour Party went back to 1983 by choosing Corbyn. Yvette cooper might have done better, although they were all 'tainted' by having experience of government under Blair.

Yes he reminds me of foot slightly

I don't think raking over the past will yield any useful clues about the outcome of this election. Brexit has changed the political landscape and discourse. JC harping on the NHS, etc., has missed the zeitgeist completely.

One can only hope the young get out there and vote...they have til 22nd to register

With Corbyn, there is some deadly ammo waiting for Tory Central Ofiice, the Fail et al, including film:

e.g. I can remember an excruciating TV interview with him after an IRA atrocity which he kept refusing to condemn, just minimising about "each side" and very clearly rooting for his side

BBC News is just running a report saying that it is the young people who are driving the success of Le Pen and want out of the EU.

prettybird i think that is half right. Le Pen and Melenchon both attract young people (the 18-24 bracket) because it's an age where ideology usually wins out over pragmatism. And often to engage young people to vote at all, you have to have have "dramatic" policies (because typically propensity to get out and vote is lowest in this group so they need bigger incentives. Finally this group contains many marginalised young people - out of work, out of education - who are fed up with the establishment, which is entirely understandable.

What this means is that it's been pushing at an open door for Le Pen - until Melenchon came along and nicked some of those voters.

I don't think they are "anti-EU" as a group; I doubt they have a strong opinion on the EU (I have only met one young anti EU person in France and he was a smart, ambitious 20 something muslim working as a management trainee at Lidl). What you have to understand is that the appeal of MLP is primarily for her non-EU policies (getting rid of the euro and leaving the EU are unpopular among FN voters) - she appeals to left-behind voters primarily on the basis of a cultural war against North African immigrants. There is very little sense here that "EU immigrants are stealing our jobs"; if there is anti EU sentiment then I suspect it is much more directed against the Euro (the left don't like what the EU did to Greece, and the right are nostalgic for the franc) and the refugee crisis. The issues are therefore very different vs the UK where EU immigration is the explicit target. I have never, once, as an EU immigrant felt discriminated against or disliked in France - though increasingly people do feel sorry for me for being British .

Times: Cabinet kept in dark by PM over dramatic U-turn

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cabinet-kept-in-dark-by-pm-over-dramatic-u-turn-6s223b7xx

"Many ministers round the cabinet table yesterday were stunned by the prime minister’s declaration. Boris Johnson had been told shortly beforehand"

"Amber Rudd, the home secretary, Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, were also in the circle of trust. Sir Patrick McLoughlin, the party chairman, and Gavin Williamson, the chief whip, are thought to have known a week ago.

Others in the cabinet were said to be stunned by the move,
which most had learnt of while waiting in the anteroom before Mrs May read them her statement.
< so she keeps much of her cabinet in the dark too, not just the public >

I've bought a bunch of euros since the GE announcement btw, at close to £1=€1.20. It can't be long before the markets realise that if remain tories are marginalised or resign, then the power of the "ultras" will be reinforced.

Going to buy some more precious metals too (as a hedge for my remaining sterling cash).

Times: May is asking voters to sign a blank cheque

"The young will never forgive us if we don’t demand answers to the vital Brexit questions during the next seven weeks."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/theresa-may-is-asking-voters-to-sign-blank-cheque-in-snap-election-2l7h6scc9
"Who is the election aimed at strengthening her hand against?

Some versions have it that the Europeans are placed at a disadvantage by the authority conferred by a May landslide, and won’t be able to play “divide and rule” with British politicians.
Consequently Mrs May will get a Better Deal.

But ... that was never the problem.
The big difficulty for them was a weak Mrs May who might not be able to deliver Any Deal.

As far as we can tell those Europeans given the job of negotiating with Britain are relieved by the prospect of an election.

However it changes not an iota what they can and can’t, will or won’t, offer us or be prepared to accept.
It won’t alter their insistence on settling the issue of payment in principle before talks on trade.
It doesn’t change their internal politics (they have to get 28 sign-offs, the European parliament being the 28th)."

"Tony Blair plausibly laid out the three very broad options he saw as being available to Brexit Britain, and on which we have never voted or been consulted.

One was the free trade agreement on the lines of Norway and Switzerland.
Less control, more free trade.
It was an option favoured by more emollient Brexiteers before June last year and then subsequently disowned.

Second was limited access, free from tariff barriers but not non-tariff (ie regulatory) ones.
A bit more control, a bit less trade.

And third was no deal with lots of theoretical control and with major economic damage.

Which of these is what Mrs May, going into this election and seeking a mandate, conceives as the “best possible deal”?

We don’t know and she does not want to debate it.

At the moment her position is simply that we should vote for her party and elect MPs whose historic role will be to support whatever she declares eventually to have been The Better Deal.
And she will win not because this position has virtue, but because the main opposition party has killed itself and nothing new has yet been born to replace it.
Whatever your view of Brexit you should be able to see how horribly unsatisfactory this situation is and what dragon seeds it sows for the future.
If we don’t demand answers to the central questions in the next seven weeks .....will the young ever forgive us?"

Fabulous, so we're likely to be sandwiched between the two wings of the Creative Destruction Society, with Timmy Farron in the middle with us, desperately trying to save civilisation.

Unlike Misti, I have no money, so will not be buying shiny metals - instead I shall be charging boxes of Lidl canned goods to my credit card.

MO4D I sympathise, I know a fair few people in your position :(

I am lucky as I was given a French contract at a time when the rate was very favourable (UK salary converted at 1.45). But much of our retirement savings are in sterling and we can't touch them for tax reasons. Ive put a lot of my cash into dollar dénominated investments as a hedge (I work in the resource/mineral economics field so I know enough about commodities to feel this is an acceptable risk- not so wise for the average investor.)

Fabulous, so we're likely to be sandwiched between the two wings of the Creative Destruction Society, with Timmy Farron in the middle with us, desperately

It is a very shit situation for the average person with a functioning brain. If you're not terrified you're not doing it right.

I feel extremely fortunate to (a) not be in the UK (b) be part of the generation that could still build up some sort of non-housing assets. People five years younger than me are not so fortunate (whereas people five years older than me, like my boss, can consider retiring at 60 whereas I will need to work until I'm at least 67).

You were lucky with your contract, I can't imagine the rate going back to 1.45 any time soon!

It was a long time ago!!!

I think Yvette Cooper would have been far better than Corbyn, but then again almost anybody would have been

Yvette Cooper was simply more of the same. Labour stagnated after Blair. It had no new ideas so just followed along with what the Tories were doing. Yvette Copper may or may not have done better than Corbyn but she would have been no opposition. You aren't opposing something if you are basically just arguing for the same things, but in a different colour.

The really depressing thing about the labour leadership is that Corbyn got in because there was nobody else saying anything different to the Tories. Labour was already fucked before Corbyn turned up. He has just hammered the nail in the coffin by being incapable of providing any sort of leadership even when his policies are alright and the conservatives are a mess.

Personally i want to get the lot of them in a room and bash their heads together for being so bloody stupid and useless.

Anyway, we are where we are as they say. No point crying over spilt milk. I shall stop ranting now and just try and concentrate on getting through this message in one piece.

As you were....