Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

The Tories would be daft to field ex UKIP candidates on the Conservative party ticket. Most of them are spectacularly incompetent, so much so that it would become obvious even in a 7 week campaign.

Fair point patty

I was just thinking that now Tories are going openly hard Brexit they will attract the Ukippers. Though you are right that whether they would want them or not is a different matter.

I spotted this charming British vehicle when queuing for the Channel Tunnel in Calais. There were about 4 or 5 cars battered and prettified like this one causing mini accidents by bumping into their mates' cars and shrieking with laughter whilst waiting to board the train .

Great PR for Brexit and for conveying a laid back, cool Britannia' image abroad .

Thank you everyone for these threads, they are my go to source for Brexit updates since June '16.

Not buying the idea people want centrist gov. Brexit is hard right, Tory party about to win landslide are hard right. Daily mail never warmed to Cameron because he was centre right.

Oh, here.

Corbyn apparently is remaining even if they lose!!! read it in the Independant!!! thats bad news!

My fella reckons Corbyn is a Tory plant!! put in there to keep Labour out of power.

Do you think the UKIP candidates might defect to Tories and fill some of the gaps red?

I think their might have been an argument for this in time. With a snap election not so much. The Tory machine is not computerised and in the 21st century. Local party list are still on paper in some areas and there is not centralised list.

My thought is that if you were a previous kipper the reality of having to get processed as a party members in addition to getting screened and selected as a Tory candidate would exclude you purely because it would take too long.

It'll be Tories scrapping the barrel with members and local parties perhaps rushing through lapsed members known to them.

Especially since most active and committed kippers who do get off their backsides and stand for election will be effectively cup ties because they will already be running for the local elections. Ukip struggle to get the numbers as it is, so anyone remotely active you'd expect to be involved.

Exceptions might be possible if a candidate is high profile.

More likely we might see a number of kipper candidates drop out of local elections so they can campaign for Tories but i don't expect them to stand.

I am wondering if the Conservatives are misjudging this, or just don't have a hand to play. Not appearing in TV debates, not being prepared to give any detail in interviews and, probably, not getting out much either. For good or ill Blair, Cameron, and Clegg for that matter, made elections about marketing their leadership via lots of spin but also capitalising on their personal charisma and evident ability to think on their feet and perform well in interview and public speaking / debate. May is terrible, she is certainly no woman of the people apart from a narrow band of Home Counties little Englanders. Having no opposition will take you only so far, it could actually mean that those not motivated to vote against May stay at home.

Jim Pickard‏ @PickardJE
Breaking: £2.3bn sale of Green Investment Bank confirmed - good week to bury one of the most controversial privatisations of recent years.

Capital to be made here if someone decides to make a real point of it and May is santitised and kept away from public in extreme fashion which is what I'm expecting.

How about a "Mr Bolton fingers-man" battle bicycle for remain.

But who's paying here for tory campaign? Is this a state funded helicopter or paid for by some one else?

This happened in the last campaign, tories used national campaigning in local constituencies, and wouldn't let local candidates speak to the press. If they have any local candidates.

Nigel Farage has announced that he may not run in the first elections to a fully sovereign UK Parliament for decades – because the European Parliament is more important.

I will comment - 'ha, bloody ha', and 'hypocrite'. The organisation he doesn't agree with. He won't be going there to do any useful work, so why not try again for Parliament? Carswell's seat should be worth a punt.

Robert Peston‏*@Peston*

Only one bit of election coverage worth reading today: this on election semantics by Craig Brown in Mail

There is a big empty space between the Tories - who are on the hard right - and the centre ground.
So a Labour party positioned at the centre would be pulling the Overton window well to the left.

There's a big difference between that proposal and the "slightly left of Tories" which Corbynistas claim is the only alternative to their position.

The vital change - after Labour's probable heavy defeat - is to choose a competent, energetic young leader who the public would like, as distinct from the one who is a total turnoff.
So do NOT replace Corbyn by McDonnell or Abbott

When even in Scotland the polls show a massive preference for May over Corbyn for PM - far greater than any party lead - then Labour should start listening.

Corbyn is toxic, the Dream Labour Leader - for the Tories.

Maybe Farage is waiting for the non contributory pension payment at the end of his term from the EP. He is in another parliament pension scheme too. He is one of the longer incumbents so will receive the extra money from this pension scheme which has been done away with for more recent MEP's. Will keep his health insurance too.

www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/27/meps-final-payoff-157000

Mind you, he may hand it back to UK exchequer (along with all the UKIP MEP's). He doesn't want the UK to have to keep paying in to his pension and health insurance.

It does seem odd for UKIP to be giving out about the UK contributing to the EU coffers, while at the same time pocketing the money quite happily. No offer to give it back to the UK exchequer if you feel so strongly about it?

May is doing the rounds of the 'people' by going to handpicked, staged events like yesterday evening. No questions, never mind awkward ones. It was a Kim Jong Un show. Well a little. I wondered how long the 'crowd' tory activists and members could keep the smiles painted on. One guy did glaze over, but quickly recovered to nod appreciatively at May's soundbites.

Afterwards, on BBC or Sky somebody said she was going out and about and meeting the public. He was citing the closed, staged, handpicked event with no questions. Unbelievable. Mind you, they might give a few planted questions next time. "Mrs. May, are you the marvellously firm and strong leader which the country needs at this time?"

She is doing the election to a Tory purdah. Calling a general election and then refusing put herself to the electorate

Calling a general election and then refusing put herself to the electorate

With a supine press and media, I can see her getting away with it......except, since she is not very self aware, she could go and put her foot in it spectacularly and her authority could drain away. Think of e.g. Brown and 'some bigotted woman' or Kinnock and his triumphal rally in Sheffield - it sent a message that he thought he had it in the bag. With the County Council elections in many places and then the GE she has given herself quite a long period in which to make mistakes.

I do keep reminding myself how the media has gone on and on and on about UKIP, talking them up at every opportunity, but the support was quietly leaving them. Admittedly to go back to the BlueKIP Tories. Who will let them down just as surely as Farage did.

(Well, I live in hope.)

I had a dream last night that David Miliband re-entered British politics.

Ruth Davidson's popularity in Scotland has taken a bit of a knock when she showed her true blue colours defended the rape clause and then tried to turn it around and blame Nicola Sturgeon for not mitigating it in Scotland (which the SNP has committed to do - using up the pocket money we are given to do so - along with mitigating the Bedroom tax and the housing benefit for young people) The reminder that she is a fully paid up member of the "Nasty" party may come back to bite her (she must be really pissed off at the early GE; doesn't give her time to find a nice safe seat down South )

This is a UK-wide inhumane policy which SNP MPs (in particular Alison Thewliss) have been challenging for 21 months and which was implemented on 6 April via statutory instruments without parliamentary scrutiny.

To not oppose it because we can mitigate it in Scotland and "women here are ok" would have been the worse form of narrow-minded nationalism. This affects women and children across the UK.

This is therefore an appropriate time to re-post the link to the petition opposing the rape clause and family cap; at the moment the pattern of signatures suggests it is only the Scots who care (it's even more pronounced if you look at % of constituents) - and shockingly, there are still constituencies in England where not a single person has signed - but I can't believe that it is simply because the Scots care more. I hope am sure it's just because it hasn't had the profile and media coverage down South.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/195077

Imagine if you are the 3rd child and you find out that your mum got benefits for 3, not just 2 children Quite apart from the inhumanity of a woman having to fill in an 8 page form stating that the 3rd child was the result of rape or coercion - and then relying on the DWP to treat you compassionately

Apparently Carswell has just announced that he won't be standing for election. Do you think this will make things easier for odious Banks' election hopes in Clacton?

I had a dream last night that David Miliband re-entered British politics.

Could he pull it off if he stood in Maidenhead? It would be a most delicious contest. Especially if all the other candidates stood down.

Just signed the petition.

Having signed the petition, I won't bother to write to my MP about it, because she was quite happy to support the restriction on child benefit. She has no children of her own yet, but married a wealthy man.

My energies I feel are better utilised in trying to get her OUT.