Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

I knew he would go. Woohoo!

Hornchurch and Upminster is a leave area although not as pro as its neighbour in Havering

Yvette Cooper got a strike in there.

Smart money on her for next Labour leader? Assuming she makes it through the Great Labour Blood Bath.

Has performed well in recent months.

Yes, well, Andrew Smith blotted his copybook at a pro-EU meeting I attended a few weeks back at Oxford Town Hall. He was going to vote for A50, which he subsequently did, and this did not go down well with the audience. So perhaps that is why he has decided to quit. Having said that, he was regarded as a good constituency MP prior to that. The Greens hope to have a good chance there. I am not sure myself, but they do have a couple of good Councillors.

Oxford is potentially well and truly shafted by Brexit - with scientific and medical research being threatened, the NHS, as represented by a large teaching hospital, under attack, the future of the BMW factory, and not far away the labs connected with Euratom.

Andrew Woodcock‏*@AndyWoodcock*

Dennis Skinner urges PM to stop Tories facing expenses allegations standing on June 8. @theresa_may: "I stand by all Conservative MPs" #PMQs

^ Remember this one. Don't be surprised if there is bus that comes along for someone to get thrown under if shit does hit the fan.

Election Data‏*@election*_data
Theresa May heading to Bolton North East today - majority of 4,377 for David Crausby and Labour over Tories.

Theresa May will be in the North West A LOT. They will win this seat.

Bigly I fully agree with yOU.
I'm just worried that people have been brainwashed that opposing Brexit is not a possibility and that this would make e sort of awful people for standing up against the democratic process. I'm just not sure of the effect all this 'Brexit means brexit' and 'the will of the people' has had on voters.

guerillawire.org/politics/make-no-mistake-britain-is-getting-another-vote-on-brexit/
Conversely, the other risk - shown in council by-elections - is that Remain voters are more likely to turn up. Brexit was won by many who did not usually vote at general elections. If they revert to their norm, May might struggle for that three figure majority she craves.

I really think that the way this vote is going to go is a bit of a mystery and certainly not as clear cut as the 'polls' seem to say.
I'm also wondering about 'outside influences' and how this vote is going to be pushed one direction or the other by the bots.

RedToothBrush , thanks for linking to
The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems --- Theresa May’s conservatives are probably headed to a big win, but polls in the U.K. are terrible.

and you commented
"Says American Pollster who got the US election completely wrong."

That's not fair though. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight website is not a pollster, he's an aggregator of other polls. He just interprets polls.

Based on his interpretation of all polls, he gave Trump a much higher chance of winning the Electoral College (from memory, about 30%) than any of the other commentators, who gave Trump only a tiny chance.

A one-in-three shot is worth a bet, isn't it?

Harry Cole‏*@MrHarryCole*

New: ITV will hold a leaders' debate... understand Julie Etchingham to host in early May. Over to you No10....

Who would to do it instead of her? Or will it be an empty chair?

howabout Globalisation to enable the super-rich globally pay even less tax and become even richer ..
is a hard right conservative strategy - Tory rightwing in the UK, Republicans in the US

I don't understand why you think the hard right help the poor more than Liberals or Labour / Tory moderates:

How does cutting taxes for the rich - therefore cutting welfare benefits, healthcare, public services help the poor ?
Or do you think cutting back anti-discrimination legislation and abortion rights help the ooir ?

Globalisation has significantly increased the average standard of living in most developing countries (those not at war)
Blocking import of their goods & services might help the lowest skilled / paid workers in the West, but would be cruel to the developing countries.

howabout How much do you know about the Lib Dems?
Pretty sure the Lib/Dem Blairite agenda is wreck the Labour Party and the Brexit process whatever the cost.

No, pretty sure they are not especially interested in the Labour party per se, although I am in a seat where Labour comes nowhere in elections, so they aren't taken too seriously. Yes, they (LD) are and have been pro EU, so they most certainly do not support Brexit at all costs. They do wish to speak for the 48% whom May has ignored.

I think she's going more for De Gaulle style politics by plebiscite Ninon

Nate Silver said he didn't think Trump would win. And massively hedged his bets to the point that what he said was just more vague in who would win than others.

He amused me in just how unwilling he was to commit to anything.

Ladbrokes Politics‏*@LadPolitics*
^Some people are backing @WEP_UK to win a seat at 50/1
If they had to target just one seat, which should it be?^

@WEP_UK = Women's Equality Party

Interesting to see a) WEP will be standing candidates for the first time. b) Ladbrokes commenting on it and giving odds which are relatively low.

I am curious to see where they stand. If they don't stand in Shipley I'd be surprised.

Thinking about Trump, who is a Republican, with a Republican Senate and House of Congress, there is no one else the Republicans can blame if things go wrong, much though they would dearly love to pass the buck to the Democrats. If TM gets the majority she craves and Brexit means Brexit is not a success, then blaming Labour or the LibDems, or the SNP if it comes to that, won't wash.

Personally, I do think she is in real danger now of breaking up the UK- which she won't want to be remembered for.

If the Tories win their expected big majority, is it then treason and sabotage if we protest against Brexit, or any policy at all, e.g. privatisation of the nhs or cuts to benefits for the disabled ?

Is democracy now just to have a vote every couple of years and don't dare criticise the govt between GEs ?

Are we even allowed to criticise the govt during GE campaigns ?

It is clear why May and her ministers have been visiting and sucking up to regiems like Saudi, Turkey, the Philippines, Malaysia - getting tips on how to suppress opposition effectively.

A refusal to condemn the Mail's language by a PM who claims to want to unite the country is simply extraordinary. It's totalitarian language taken directly from the copybook of the dictators of the first half of the twentieth century.

But she is so lacking in what the French would call "culture générale" that I don't think she understands this.

Not sure what to think about so many "remain" Tories standing down. I guess these will be top targets for the LDs, but some of them may be won by a new generation of extremists - a Tory version of the tea party.

It is clear why May and her ministers have been visiting and sucking up to regiems like Saudi, Turkey, the Philippines, Malaysia

This is the woman who parades her Christianity. Nothing wrong with being friends with Muslim countries of course.

Not sure what to think about so many "remain" Tories standing down.
Are they being purged by Tory Central Office, because Hard Brexit is the only show in town now? Or are they just throwing in the towel?

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/uk-teenagers-unhappy-pisa-data_uk_58f7317ae4b05b9d613e7e64?
UK Teenagers Are Among The Most Unhappy In The World, PISA Data Reveals
They are also seriously stressed about exams.

Same teenagers the government wants to get Saturday jobs.

May sucks up to some horrific theocratic regimes, but she is callous and hostile towards ordinary individual Muslims (who aren't billionaires)

Not sure what to think about so many "remain" Tories standing down.

Do some perhaps realise what a car crash it will be and not want to be associated with a catastrophe?

A refusal to condemn the Mail's language by a PM who claims to want to unite the country is simply extraordinary. It's totalitarian language taken directly from the copybook of the dictators of the first half of the twentieth century.

It's absolutely bizarre. One can only infer that she condones it.

I think she's going more for De Gaulle style politics by plebiscite

It's the DM going for full dictator chic.

I would say Pétain rather than de Gaulle.