Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

There is a problem for Labour MPs who might be considering defection: The LDs are largely already prepared for an election. The majority of constituencies will already have a preferred choice candidate. It doesn't mean that candidate will definitely stand, but it makes it more difficult for sitting Labour MPs to get selected as potential LD candidates especially given the short time frame.

John Pugh LD MP for Southport is standing down.

He only won by a whisker in 2015 against the CONs. The seat will be an interesting one to watch. Its a close one.

Michael Crick‏ @MichaelLCrick
BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses

Mitch Benn @MitchBenn
In case you were wondering, THIS is why we're having an election in June; the Tories might lose their majority if we don't. Utterly cynical.

Mitch Benn‏ @MitchBenn
Replying to @MitchBenn
And if Corbyn wasn't so thick and obstinate, he'd have realised this and vetoed the election. The Tories could have been OUT by autumn.

Ah, the Great British Electorate:

time.com/4744155/theresa-may-general-election-google-search/?xid=time_socialflow_twitter

According to Google Trends, one of the U.K.'s most-searched questions following May's shock announcement has been "When was the last general election?", which is a pretty understandable question when you consider that it has been less than two years (712 days to be precise) since the country last endured a national vote for Prime Minister, whose term is ordinarily five years.

Other questions that make the list include "What is a snap election?", "What does 'general election' mean?" and "Who can vote in a general election?"

Google Trends has also released the top five most searched terms relating to the Prime Minister. As one would expect, "What party is Theresa May from?", "Why has Theresa May called a general election?" and "How can Theresa May call an election?" make the list. However, rather surprisingly, the most searched question has been "How old is Theresa May?," which feels fairly irrelevant.

Red Do you really find that surprising? She is a woman over 50, supposed to be not seen and not heard. And to be fair we have had a run of young PMs, it has become the norm to witness their family life with young children , and the emphasis on their "normality". And even whilst I find any comment on her appearance as an older woman unfair, I can't help but notice that there is a difference between the woman who walked into Downing Street for the first time as PM looking relaxed and happy and the tense and drained look yesterday.

Nobody is impressed with her attempts to keep it to shallow sound bites on the Today programme this morning www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

....

Owen Jones‏**@OwenJones84**
It's critical Labour say: we'll keep Britain in the single market, the Tories will take us out. Give Britain a clear choice on a Brexit deal

Owen Jones‏**@OwenJones84** 2m
Unless Labour say 'we'll keep Britain in the single market and protect jobs, the Tories won't', voters won't see a choice.

So far Corbyn has actively avoided mentioning Brexit. In his statement about the GE he didn't talk about it at all. Instead the impression I seem to get from twitter is the strategy is going to be about fighting the election on the subject of the NHS, education and other public services and not be drawn on Brexit.

The trouble is that its been repeatedly shown in polling that Brexit is the amongst the top three biggest concerns for the public (whether they are for it or against it). Whilst the NHS also scores highly, you can't just ignore Brexit.

Especially when the LDs strategy will be focused on Brexit and the Tory strategy will focus on leadership. Both which play directly into where Labour is lacking without the need for any smearing or playing dirty.

It has to be said though, what IS going to be in the Tory Manifesto? I suspect it is likely to be a piece of creative writing and largely empty soundbites because May can not do otherwise. A lot like the A50 white paper and the Great Repeal white paper. Will it be any better on detail than Labour or simply rest on the idea of leadership. What will they officially ditch from 2015? (Will Hammond ultimately win over his NI contributions as he wasn't allowed to raise for self employed as Cons said they wouldn't in the manifesto. What will replace 'protecting British interests in the Single Market? Will the ECHR and the Human Rights Act feature? What will be the line about immigration? Will there be reference to a transitional deal?)

I suspect the Labour Manifesto will be big on numerous policies - but like the Conservatives perhaps be thin on the ground for Brexit.

If the Northern voters on Newsnight last night are any barometer then Owen Jones has got that completely backwards.

May is doing what is in the interests of her party.

Corbyn is also doing what is in the interests of her party !

His breathtaking incompetence also means many people are unclear about Labour's policy on Brexit - but most people think it's not theirs:

Corbyn & McDonnell opportunistically ditched Remain immediately after the referendum - angering Remainers
BUT Lexiters don't trust Labour either:

e.g. on the election thread I noticed howabout stating that the Remain vote was divided between 3 parties - Labour, Liberals and Greens whereas only the Tories were for Leave.
Hence she thought Tories would win.

I disagree with her assessment wrt party positions on Brexit. imo:
Leave is divided between 2 parties: Tories, UKIP
Remain between 2 parties: LibDems, Greens
Labour MP candidates need to be judged on a case by case basis. Hardly any are Reamin, just softer Brexit.

She also said that if she were in England, she would vote Tory to push through Brexit
I found that astonishing in someone who clearly prefers the Corbyn wing of the party.

However, this shows that as well as some Remainers changing their vote, some Lexiters will too - even though they know this means more cuts to services & benefits.

Brexit is a total game-changer, so
2015 & 2010 party affiliations may be meaningless in predicting this GE

The major issue with doing a campaign on staying in the EU is that it can very easily rejected as being undemocratic.
That's what we've heard for the last 12 months.
I think that, to be able to do that, you need a pretty good strategy and be an excellent communicator.
I don't think JC is either of those plus I'm not convinced he isn't actually happy to come out of the EU anyway

Being PM is exhausting for young fit politicians - note how Major aged, as did Blair ...
Even lazy Cam

Brexit is a total game-changer, so 2015 & 2010 party affiliations may be meaningless in predicting this GE

Yes, i agree with this. I have never voted tactically but will do for this election as i feel that Brexit is too big a deal to be left to May with no opposition. A lot of her rhetoric about this election is openly about shutting down any descent about her plans for Brexit. She seems genuinly appalled and shocked that anyone should dare to present a different view to hers. I find this chilling and will vote to try and ensure that there remains a range of views in the commons whether she likes it or not.

Sam Coates Times‏**@SamCoatesTimes**
Arron Banks has admitted he knows "nothing at all" about the Essex constituency where he hopes to become MP in the June 8 general election

Good start then. Why change his political career strategy?

Sam Coates Times‏**@SamCoatesTimes**

Lib Dems indicate they would welcome support in the general election campaign from senior Labour opponents of Brexit, including Tony Blair.

Toxic strategy or genuine help?

Anyone watching PMQ? Corbyn seems rather more passionate than usual while May is saying nothing of depth and laughing and smirking.

Andrew Smith Labour MP for Oxford East is not standing for re-election.

Again another seat likely to be hotly contested.
(2015 - 25,356 Lab to 10,076 Con. 2010 - 21,938 Lab to 17,357 LD and LD have a good record there throughout the 1990s).
I wouldn't like to hazard a guess about what will happen there: just 32% voted Leave.

The major issue with doing a campaign on staying in the EU is that it can very easily rejected as being undemocratic.

There seems to be a view from some in the UK and also from Trump land that democracy means you vote and then you shut the fuck up. Democracy does not stop at the ballot box, it is about having a system where there are mechanisms for everyone in the country to make their views known and play a part in the governance of their country. Democracy does not mean that the large minority have lost and no longer get any say. I want a government that will represent the whole of the country and take into account the different opinions and views on brexit. That may mean we leave, it might mean that as things become clearly we change our minds and stay (assuming the EU allows it), the key thing is that it is a process of open discussion and debate. This view that any questioning of the regime is treason is getting very close to authoritarianism and is not helpful for anyone.

SuckitUp also watching PMQs. Helps that Dennis Skinner was in camera shot willing him on.

This view that any questioning of the regime is treason is getting very close to authoritarianism and is not helpful for anyone.

This. May refused to condemn the use of "saboteur" at PMQ.

Democracy is a dialogue.

I'm watching. Anyone spotted George Osborne there for PMQs yet?

RTB toxic strategy. Pretty sure the Lib/Dem Blairite agenda is wreck the Labour Party and the Brexit process whatever the cost. Operation "Reinstate globalisation as normal".

Osbourne stands down, giving exclusive to the Standard for some reason I can't work out

link would help

Angela Watkinson Conservative MP for Hornchurch and Upminster not standing.
This is a safe Tory seat. (She was a Remain Tory)

Simon Burns Conservative MP for Chelmsford not standing.
The LDs had a good showing here in 2010 and they have done well in the area at local elections since the ref. Could be a LD target. Burns was a remain Tory.

George Osborne.

Standing down.