Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam
a number of people who said Parliament vote compelled by Miller Supreme Court case would weaken A50 hand, now say election strengthens hand

Faisal Islam‏ @faisalislam
Corbyn says: timing of election expenses investigation and snap election is "very interesting" and notes PM has not mentioned it.

Sorry to spam you with Faisal Islam

Do some perhaps realise what a car crash it will be and not want to be associated with a catastrophe?

No doubt they can see it's a losing battle, but it would be nice if they fought their/our corner.

There's no way, were I an MP, that I'd throw in the towel now even if I wanted to. I'm still pissed off with Tristram Hunt - totally understand why V&A would be a much nicer job - but don't become an MP if you're not prepared to fight for your constituents and your country.

No doubt they can see it's a losing battle, but it would be nice if they fought their/our corner.

I suspect they don't think they can, for fear of being regarded as undemocratic in going against the result of the referendum.

It's a lot easier to do the Cassandra thing ("Will of the People notwithstanding, it's going to be a disaster") as a private individual.

I don't think the WEP would stand a chance in Shipley, Red, it's a very mixed constituency. For every Saltaire feminist (with which I would align myself), there's an old, "traditional" conservative man living in the posh villages. Also some very deprived areas and some predominantly Asian communities, neither of which I could see being won over by the WEP. Labour stand a better chance, before PD it flip-flopped between labour and conservative. PD has been in since 2005.

Clive Lewis has cancelled his wedding in early June because of the election. His fiancée must love him!

Julian Harris‏*@Hariboconomics*
IG market expects Lib Dems to rebound to 34 seats at this election. Tories to reach 370, and Labour to drop to 177.

That's the top prediction I've seen for the LDs and lowest for Labour.

I think this a more likely scenario than 8 seats for LDs. But I don't think they will get quite as many as this.

I think they are being pushed out.
So much easier to lead the HoC if you don't have those pesky Remainers in the way. And you can avoid being taken hostage by the hard brexiters.

RTB I think the LibDems may well pull off something of a shock in Scotland if there is lots of tactical voting. They have 10 ex seats up for grabs which all look winnable. Any thoughts on how they will do in London?

Pushed out to leave a Commons full of nodding Brexit dogs. Oh joy.

I hope all the new posters from yesterday stick around.

I'm still here but struggling to keep up, let alone post.

^howabout How much do you know about the Lib Dems?
Pretty sure the Lib/Dem Blairite agenda is wreck the Labour Party and the Brexit process whatever the cost.^

The LibDems have spent the whole time the Labour Party has been in existence trying to wreck it. How else will they ever claim back the Whig mantle. Unfettered Liberalism with the supremacy of the individual over society is the central tenet of Liberalism.

Bigchoc what you say about Globalisation raising the fortunes of the World's poorest is true. However it has been a redistribution from the poorest in Developed economies to the poorest in Developing economies with the net benefit accumulating to the richest Worldwide. Nick Robinson did an interesting R4 podcast recently.

Footnote. As I am in Scotland I would vote LibDem in a marginal seat to get rid of SNP Nationalism which is even worse.

A lot of those MPs showed just how spineless they were during voting so hardly surprising they will take the opportunity to jump ship now.

Extra ammunition in the 'ain't my fault mate' argument.

Howabout I think globalisation is the practical way to raise up the poorest in developing countries, so millions no longer starve.

I'd say most in the lower 90% of income in the West have suffered from this, just that the poorest are least able among them to manage.

What do you expect the hard right to do to improve this, though ?

They don't plan to stop globalisation, just to bring the pay and rights of workers in the Uk and US down to that level and to cut taxes even further for the wealthiest, especially tax on capital and investment - the 99% live on wages & then on pensions, raher than being cushioned by capital from birth.

It's also no coincidence that the Uk and US right both demonise IHT in particular:
transfer of great wealth down the generations perpetuates the same families that have been dominating our society since Norman times. They've just added some more families, insignificant in a world population of 7 billion+.

Liberals & Labour are too chicken to tackle this growing inequality,
but the right are actively aiming for more inequality, taking from the 90% in the West to give to the 0.1% everywhere.

The only thing about the election expenses, and yes, I am cynical enough to think that is why May has called a GE now, is that we will now be aware of the dirty tricks the Tories got up to last time. They also tried it on in a small way in 2010 but that went unremarked until too late.

522 votes in favour of having a general election. I know it was pretty inevitable with the stances all the parties were taken but now it's official.

Afternoon all

howabout, I've not looked much at the data for London (yet). I've only got to G for Labour held seats.

Its a bit of an odd one. Its generally more Remain so you would in theory expect the LDs to get really big swings from Lab, whilst there is generally less of a UKIP presence that the Cons can gain from - though where it does exist its pretty significant.

The main problem that Labour will have isn't any other party. Its apathy and motivating Labour supporters to actually vote. Labour voters in general, women and 18 - 24 year old are displaying the lowest level of intent to vote. Conservatives, men, over 65s in general are most likely to vote. (Remainers are generally more motivated than leavers but it remains to be seen how Labour might benefit from this even though the majority of Labour supporters voted Remain).

So you would expect the LDs to do very well in London.

However Corbyn is personally more popular and there is a more favourable attitude to his current policies and northern Farron is much less favoured. The combination makes it more difficult to call right now than other parts of the UK.

Whether that pattern continues to hold true will have an impact. Personal attacks on Farron particularly on his LGBT / Christian views have already been happening. Apparently Corbyn will be targeted for his militant past and there is a dossier ready to be deployed by Tory HQ. Who suffers worst in the eyes of the public will make a difference. This is precisely why May will stay out of it and not do a TV debate. Its keeping her above this, whilst letting the mud slinging hit them not her. She has the publicity and protection from the right wing press.

The LDs won't get the swing you might expect from Labour for this reason unless it gets really messy for Corbyn. London will be difficult for the LDs as unless its clear cut who is best option to keep out Tories. It makes tactical voting tricky.

People have been saying to look at 2015 and who came second. I don't think will reflect what voters will do. Plenty of 2015 Labour voters were LDs in 2010. That will collapse and large parts will go yellow.

This massively suits the Tories and I suspect will allow them to grab a couple of seats and perhaps retain a couple that aren't necessarily expected.

With regard to Labour: On face value from 2015 performance you'd expect the LDs to only regain Bermondsey and Old Southwark from Lab. Hornsey and Wood Green still looks a push even though it was only 18% leave. As I say though, disregarding 2010 performance as irrelevant betrays the reality as its rather more complex than that. On the whole, though, the LDs are much more likely to fair better in London in current Conservative seats than they are in Labour ones. The Lab v LD thing in London is something which doesn't necessarily reflect the reality of what will happen imo.

(On the whole nationally, the LDs are more of a threat to Conservatives seats than Labour seats. The LDs are a threat to Labour in allowing Conservatives to get seats).

Overall I think the LDs will do better in London than being suggested in some quarters but not nearly as much as many think despite the high remain votes that exist there. They won't be able to capitalise on the EU vote as much as you think in the capital. Its different in other parts of the country though.

Press Association‏*@PA* 3m
#Breaking Conservative Remain supporter Ken Clarke to stand again to be an MP in his Rushcliffe constituency at June election

www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/why-tory-mps-believe-they-may-not-win-general-election-landslide
Why Tory MPs believe they may not win a general election landslide

The chance of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister may appear too small for a "fear factor" to aid the Conservatives.

This is worth a read.

The "fear factor" is more likely to motivate remain voters not 2015 kippers and tories.

Noting the final line that a majority of less than 100 might be seen as a failure for May under the circumstances.

I think 2010 and 2005 are better years to look at when considering who came second.

Good man Ken! Continue to be the thorn in your party's miserable side.

My MP has tweeted this

@StewartMcDonald: Just asked PM, does it not take some brass neck to call an election whilst facing allegations of buying the last one. Said Q 'not worthy'.

As one of the replies said, since when was addressing abuse of the electoral process not "worthy"? It just further demonstrates our descent in to a tinpot democracy . That and TM's description of MPs and opposition parties (and the public) exercising due diligence as "saboteurs"

My ds says he doesn't want need to read "1984" - he's living it

I thought Ken was going to stand down? I am pleased to see he's had a change of mind.

Glad to see Ken standing. We need more like him willing to stand up and be counted, not just follow party lines. Will they attempt to remove the whip from him though?