Will Brexit deliver Irish reunification?

[Drunkvet]

Just that- will a united Ireland be an after effect of Brexit? Let's be honest, without EU money NI is going to cost the UK government ££££; NI has always been the annoying, problem child. Both UK and EU have said there will be no hard border but, surely, there will have to be a border and customs control somewhere? So it would make sense to have the border around the island of Britain (Eng/Scot/wal)
The demographics in N.Ireland are changing. We no longer have a unionist majority at Stormont. Well TBH we don't have a devolved govmt at all ATM but that's a whole, other thread.
While I can't see a UI this year or next year I do feel that Brexit has brought it forward and there will be a border poll in the next 5-10 years.

will a united Ireland be an after effect of Brexit? Let's be honest, without EU money NI is going to cost the UK government ££££

Why would you think Ireland is just dying to pay that £££££ instead?

The UK causes the problem with Brexit, the UK runs up a massive bill, now the UK thinks that Ireland will rush in and pcik up the bill and take over the territory that you fought a long and bloody conflict to keep at all costs?

Not fecking likely. Not least because you screwed us over with Brexit as well and we couldn't afford it even if we wanted to. You can't just dump a region of your country on a neighbouring country when you decide you don't want it anymore, NI isn't a bloody puppy.

No one wants us.

And frankly, I don't blame them

Ah now, we just don't want to change for you! If you wanted to join in, that'd be a different prospect!

No one wants us

In theory we do, but in practice, not so much. We can't afford it.

I don't blame them sad

Me either. But regardless of what happens with NI, GB should be footing the bill for supporting us for a long time to come.

I don't have anything sensible to contribute just to say that this whole conversation shows how difficult the situation is. I am angry that the politicians did not give it considerably more thought. Even now, May usually throws in references to NI as though it's an afterthought to her speech.

Lol @Pereg NI is everyone's after thought! A country created and maintained by gerrymandering and oppression. GB doesn't care, ROI can't afford. The birds are coming home to roost though. Some tough decisions are going to be made in the next 5-10 years and I don't think many people are prepared for them or are going to like them.
For all the folks who seem to think that I'm British lecturing the Irish about Ireland let me clarify that I am Irish living in Ireland. I grew up living in a border area during the Troubles.
Up until the Brexit vote I probably wouldn't have voted for a united Ireland. Now I would. But I would say to all those from ROI panicking over health, education, taxation- you could look at it as a positive, the chance to create a better, best of both worlds Ireland. Why be so insular and negative. Change can be massively, massively positive.
But it's all hypothetical anyway. Just a brain worm I got. Can't even blame the gin

But I would say to all those from ROI panicking over health, education, taxation- you could look at it as a positive, the chance to create a better, best of both worlds Ireland. Why be so insular and negative

How you going to create a better, best of both worlds Ireland, with no money? NI is a money pit, it would drain money away, not provide any. It's not insular and negative, its the reality. What we may like in principle is just not realistically possible.

Why be so insular and negative?

Maybe it's pragmatism.

Because Ireland is still in the recovery stages from a massive (and recent) economic crash.

that is your opinion Nabob
My opinion differs. That's fine. Some of the comments have been incredibly negative and insular.
In the short to medium term do you think Brexit will harm the ROI economy? I think it will cause massive disruption in Agri-Food. It might be that unification is the best all round option. It might not. It's not something I'm going to lose sleep over.

Of course it will. It's not my opinion, its the facts of the matter.

How can you have facts about a hypothetical situation? Hypothetically both the EU and GB could provide funding for NI for an interim period. Even the Americans might throw in a wad- just need the Democrats back in power. You can't have facts about a hypothesis. So yes it is just your opinion or conjecture or projection but not fact.

Some of the comments have been incredibly negative and insular

I've enjoyed this thread and I haven't seen any comments which could be described as that.

That NI has got through what it has over the last 40 years and that most young people round the world associate it with The Game of Thrones, and not what has gone on before is a testament to the peace and the tenacity of those who have kept it.

Brexit is a reductive concept, but the citizens it affects here and the mainland don't have to buy in to that. I don't think they have or will.

Sorry to blantantly placemark but I'm about to go to bed and really want to read this thread in the morning.

On the OPs second post though I think it's naive and unhelpful to ignore the potential for violence that a United ireland would create, not least because of how it influences people's decision making.

I didn't feel I was being naive nor unhelpful. I just didn't want the post to go the way of other NI posts with whataboutery and victimhood. Apologies. I'm not naive about the Troubles. I lived through them.

The facts are that these two places are not alike. Not economically, and not really culturally in a modern sense.

The idea that it would be mostly beneficial and that magical money would swoop in to mitigate any negatives is.... refreshingly naive.

I wonder what the results of a border poll would be if the ballot question was phrased "Do you want a unified Ireland where you will be in the minority, will pay more tax, wave bye bye to the NHS, see Olympic and lets face it most sporting funding reduce to feck all, and have potholes appear in your roads"?

and have potholes appear in your roads"?

Come to England - we have potholes aplenty. Every now and again someone comes and draws green or white lines around them, but nothing else happens.

The roads in N Ireland are far worse than the roads on the other side of the border. It is a standing joke with almost everyone here over the age of about 40. 'Do you remember when we used to laugh and say that even if we hadn't had to go through a checkpoint we'd still know we had crossed the border because the roads are so bad. Now we know we've crossed the border because the roads are so good'. Even out in the wilds of Donegal the minor roads are far better than the minor roads where I live.

NI dwellers on this thread, do any of you hold two passports, or just one or the other?

I'm assuming (perhaps wrongly) that for reasons of national self-identification and cost most people would only have one.

The idea that it would be mostly beneficial and that magical money would swoop in to mitigate any negatives is.... refreshingly naive.

Or even the idea that Irish people are only waiting for the chance to change culturally and politically to make ourselves palatable to Arlene Foster and her mates. Nobody has suggested any reason why we would want that, or any indications that that's on our agenda at all.

I had a british in my teens but now Irish only and my kids have irish. They were cheaper and quicker to get as well. 10 days turnaround.

I'd say plenty have both as per the post-brexit-vote rush. Plenty in england too, lol.

Mrs Dusty, its Arlene who has to change. And i believe that she will have to eat her own words (and her huge advertisements in metro) when brexit shafts us (and her grass root agricultural community supporters in particular). It's the only silver lining in this mess.

Elspeth, who would have known so many people in Northern Ireland were dependent on Olympic funding for it to be such a major consideration

Speaking as Irish Catholic here - has none of you noticed the small matter of the majority Unionist community in NI?

Have you not noticed how very slim that majority is, though? The most recent Assembly elections, which postdate the referendum, resulted in a tie in seats between Unionist and Nationalist: in that sense, there's no longer a Unionist majority. The DUP were 12,000 first preference votes ahead of Sinn Fein. That's all. And we all know which way those demographics are going. It certainly isn't the case that Catholic=nationalist necessarily (or that Protestant=unionist) but equally, this is entirely unchartered ground.

Also, while I totally sympathise with your desire not to have to pay for NI, and as a British taxpayer I think it's perfectly fair for us to keep subsidising the place, it would hardly be Britain just dumping NI. It would be the people exercising their democratic right. Would be pretty outrageous for Britain to fail to respect the decision of the majority in NI if that were to reunify, no? Which is a separate issue from whether ROI wants it.

And for those talking about polls upthread, it's true that only 25% of the NI population now want reunification. It's also true that the figure was a 5% increase from pre-referendum.

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/sharp-rise-in-support-for-united-ireland-survey-reveals-1.2784882

And this was pre Article 50 triggering, pre the virtual complete ignoring by May of the situation in NI for the past couple of months, pre any impact of Brexit really being felt.

I do not take the view that Brexit is automatically going to lead to reunification, that's an over-simplification. But the vote has undeniably coincided with an upsurge in Irish nationalism.

Even now, May usually throws in references to NI as though it's an afterthought to her speech.

YY. No fucks given. Whatever your views on Brexit and NI's constitutional status, that's something we can all agree on.