Will Brexit deliver Irish reunification?

[Drunkvet]

Just that- will a united Ireland be an after effect of Brexit? Let's be honest, without EU money NI is going to cost the UK government ££££; NI has always been the annoying, problem child. Both UK and EU have said there will be no hard border but, surely, there will have to be a border and customs control somewhere? So it would make sense to have the border around the island of Britain (Eng/Scot/wal)
The demographics in N.Ireland are changing. We no longer have a unionist majority at Stormont. Well TBH we don't have a devolved govmt at all ATM but that's a whole, other thread.
While I can't see a UI this year or next year I do feel that Brexit has brought it forward and there will be a border poll in the next 5-10 years.

The education issue is a tricky one too though.

I got this from NI Direct:

"Most students studying for A levels take three or four AS levels in their first year. Doing this means you can keep your options open about which subjects to study as a full A level."

ROI students take at least 7 subjects for the Leaving Cert. Minimum is 6 for the normal exam that most take, though I don't know anyone who only did 6. Many do 8, Im sure I did.

Even in the "vocational" exam which is supposedly less academic, 5 is the minimum.

How would NI people react to having to increase their subjects? It would hardly be fair for kids in 6 counties to have to literally do half the subjects than the kids in the other 26 counties.

A Level subjects go into much greater depth than the Leaving Cert ones. It's not comparing like with like.

Regardless, NI would presumably have to adopt the ROI curriculum. ROI would never ever in a million years adopt a UK curriculum.

Either that or a whole new curriculum is created from scratch.

But it takes YEARS for them to change anything on the curriculum believe me. Would we be expected to have two different education systems in the meantime?

And the teachers would go mad. And the teachers unions are powerful here and very very vocal at the government.

These are all issues I would expect anyone thinking seriously of Unification to be mulling over, tbh.

These are all issues that would be worked through, not impossible obstacles. There are massive issues to be dealt with as a result of brexit and yet it's happening. Countries are constantly working through issues in order to evolve and improve current situations. It's what happens. If we always just shied away from decisions because there will be consequences then we would just stand still. There would never be any progress (I give you NI's current talks as an example )

It's quite possible that NI could retain a (semi-)devolved status within an all-Ireland setting -maintaining an assembly in Belfast and some local powers. (This was proposed at various stages during the third Home Rule crisis.)

In that circumstance, it would be quite possible to retain A Levels for NI schools who chose to do so. Many countries have multiple curricula/examination systems and all universities in Ireland are accustomed to dealing with A Level entrants as well as LC. I don't think it's quite as large an obstacle as you're making out, tbh.

Then it would be a semi-state within a state.

How is that different to its status within the UK?

Someone mentioned people in NI would still be paying tax after Unification. Yes, but at what rate? Currently it's far far lower than people in ROI. You only pay 20% up to an equivalent of €53k I believe. In ROI it only goes up to €33k after which you pay 40%.

So there is literally €20,000 taxable income in the difference.

How would that be fair to remain?

If you left an assembly in Belfast with some devolved powers in a UI then Dublin becomes the bogey man who will get the blame for any and all woes in N.I. Belfast will demand more and more devolved powers and the Unionists will become an Independence party pushing for a neverendum just like Sturgeon is in Scotland.

I wonder would everyone on the numerous UK state benefits be happy to vote to give them up and take the risk of a very different Irish system. I think Jobseekers Benefit in Ireland is only paid for 12 months.

9 months.

Brexit will only have negatives for NI and will damage the economy NI hugely.

In contrast, Brexit for the rest of Ireland will have some negatives (certainly for the agricultural sector to the UK) but also many positives as many finance and technology companies will move from UK to ROI post-Brexit.

The unionist community in NI is a major cause for concern. The DUP strongly supported Brexit. Education outcomes are a strong indicator of what the future holds for any community and it doesn't look good: www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/education/league-tables-northern-ireland-schools-at-alevel-34679570.html

I don't know what will happen in Northern Ireland. It's a matter for very serious concern. Some of the issues discussed above are trivial when put in comparison to the major problems currently facing Northern Ireland.

Possibly, an independent Northern Ireland, probably similar to an independent Scotland? A united Ireland? Remaining in the UK?

That scary part is that none of the above are economically feasible.

Elspeth Scotland has a diffent school system, different legal system, different NHS rules, different tax rates to England.

Of course the possibility that Brexit is successful and the EU or Euro tanks stagnates could mean jobs and investment moving into NI is an outcome. But its easier to be pessimistic.

But carol then you are still talking about a state within a state.

I can't even see FF going for that. It would be a Union rather than Unification.

And it definitely smacks of "wanting cake & eating it".

Like NI would want to remain in the EU but not actually change anything.

Any serious prospect of reunification would have to give due weight and consideration to NI's different experiences since the foundation of the state. It won't be a seamless incorporation, nor should it be.

NI should be seeking the least worst outcome for the people of NI. If that involves having the cake and eating it then so be it. It's about bloody time. NI has been repeatedly fucked over by decisions made by GB, it's now happening yet again with brexit.

I'm very ignorant on all this but have to confess to sharing Elspeth's shock at the idea that ROI would happily unify with NI. Why would they want to, I don't get it. Apologies for coming on just to say I don't understand

Not sufficiently knowledgeable to contribute to what is a very interesting debate but from a Scottish perspective I am always surprised by the assumption that ROI would be happy for Scotland to be Independent within the EU post Brexit.

On Neverendem, I think NS has one more shot and if she doesn't win the electorate go the way of Quebec and embrace the status quo.

I don't think we can be that shocked at the assumption that the RoI might want to reunify with NI - I believe that express desire was part of its constitution for the decades post-separation until the GFA fudged it. It's the reason that anyone born in NI can claim British and/or Irish passports.

So there was about 70-odd years of Irish politicians saying that a united Ireland would be a good thing and, for the past decade or so, the Irish electorate voting in larger numbers for SF who are also keen to unite Ireland (although I accept SF is still a minority party in the Dail).

It may happen even if neither side really wants it, because the alternative may be worse. I don't see Irish reunification as being anything like Scottish independence, it doesn't seem to have anything like as much popular support. I see it as a process of attrition where minds are gradually changed by NI moving further from the rUK and closer to the ROI over a period of years. Demographic change will also be a factor.

Someone mentioned people in NI would still be paying tax after Unification. Yes, but at what rate? Currently it's far far lower than people in ROI. You only pay 20% up to an equivalent of €53k I believe. In ROI it only goes up to €33k after which you pay 40%.

Elspeth, I think you are completely missing the point.

Certainly, higher income tax rates above €33,000 are of concern to those in ROI where the average pay is around €45,075.

In contrast, higher income tax rates are of little concern to the majority in NI as the average salary in NI is just over £20,000.

The problem isn't how much tax those in NI will pay after reunification.

The problem with reunification is how little tax those in NI can pay.

I fail to see what average salaries have to do with it tbh.

To put it another way, in NI as I understand it, it's 0% tax underneath £11k. Which is almost €13k.

So how do you think a low earning person in say Cork would feel post-Unification once he realised he was having to pay 20% tax but his counterpart in Armagh was paying 0%? When it was supposed to be A Nation Once Again? All compatriots together?

You don't think that would sow a certain discord?

Elspeth in that case no country would ever leave/join anything. Change is change. It's done gradually. There's no way it would happen without considerable financial input from the UK. After all... they essentially started it, and their brexit will finish it. Despite what the dup seem to think, the tories, labour and lib dems etc would all happily cut the apron strings asap.

And yes whilst there are reasons to vote against a united Ireland on paper, these wouldn't look so bad when it came to it, plus there's also the fact that we are countrymen/women, and MANY would argue never should have been apart in the first place.

Speaking as Irish Catholic here - has none of you noticed the small matter of the majority Unionist community in NI?
This is nothing like a Scottish vote to secede from the UK,btw.

Just wrt education. Some schools in England offer the International Baccalaureate alongside A levels. So two systems can exist in the same country.

Wrt a Unionist majority (background wise). The demographics are changing. The GFA provides for a referendum. There has to be a majority voting for it in any case. Even with a majority 'Nationalist' background, the majority of people may still vote for the status quo. I suppose it depends what Brexit throws up.

So two systems can exist in the same country.

They can, but I don't really see any particular incentive for Ireland to have that. Why would we want it? To appease the population of NI? Not an especially attractive prospect.