Will Brexit deliver Irish reunification?

[Drunkvet]

Just that- will a united Ireland be an after effect of Brexit? Let's be honest, without EU money NI is going to cost the UK government ££££; NI has always been the annoying, problem child. Both UK and EU have said there will be no hard border but, surely, there will have to be a border and customs control somewhere? So it would make sense to have the border around the island of Britain (Eng/Scot/wal)
The demographics in N.Ireland are changing. We no longer have a unionist majority at Stormont. Well TBH we don't have a devolved govmt at all ATM but that's a whole, other thread.
While I can't see a UI this year or next year I do feel that Brexit has brought it forward and there will be a border poll in the next 5-10 years.

I can't see a single solitary thing that'd make our government take on NI, so I'm bemused you can.

Well that wasn't the question you asked but you are very clearly looking a scrap and I'm not so carry on yourself, I'm out.

So staying in the EEA, as a lot of prominent Leavers like Farage once suggested, would prevent some problems and would be a tolerable compromise? Is Theresa May listening?

Can anyone inform me - before the Troubles started, what was the border situation like? Was there the same flexibility for people to cross between the two as we can between GB and Ireland?

You're the one who said "it's right up there"

Not a balls what you were referring to, tbh.

A number of the Northern Irish people I know describe themselves as "Ulster Scots". This wasn't a term I had heard until I moved to the West Coast of Scotland (I'm from Inverness!) and I'm aware it can have sectarian connotations.

I live in N Ireland and I have never heard of Ulster Scots being a sectarian thing. If anything it is received with a roll of the eyes. Certainly with regards to the 'language' which isn't a language. There definitely seems to be this idea that 'we need a language, because them'uns have a language, and they want funding for their language, so we want funding for our language, wah wah wah, it's not fair' etc. There is definitely a dialect, and a lot of words in use that would be unrecognisable to most people outside of Scotland or Co Antrim. But that's not a language.

As for the Ulster Scots identity, it's not a sectarian thing, it's a cultural thing. It's the Scottish dancing and the fiddle orchestras, and the general 'feeling' of a link with Scotland. (It's not the orange order and flute bands, although it is true that a lot of people involved in those things would also describe themselves as being of Ulster Scots descent). It's because people don't feel Irish enough to consider themselves Irish, but they look across the water to the rest of the UK and feel like outsiders there too. The closest cultural link is to the Scottish people they were descended from.

The thread, the thread is right up there, like I said right before I said "it's right up there" you know the thing I suggested you read? I was giving you directions to it as you seemed to be struggling.

De-lurking/flouncing to say Elspeth calm down before you do yourself a mischief. The border poll will include ALL of Ireland. Re your comment about living in ROI previously- maybe I do too. Donegal ain't too far from Derry. Not all Irish citizens share your view. Not all of them share mine. That's ok. I find your comments about having to support 500,000 ppl offensive. They wouldn't all be moving in to your house to claim state handout you know? I know for a fact a high proportion of ppl living in Donegal/Derry border send their kids to school in the North and use NI health system and benefits system. So give yourself a wee shake eh? ROI ain't some holy golden promised land and it's not just 'our mess to clear up' the Irish state played a part in the mess that is NI. Educate yourself

I work in the HSE. You think the HSE can afford it?

well done. I run my own business. What's that got to do with the price of buttons? Surely the HSE does not equal the NHS so a fair proportion of the marauding Northern horde would be paying for private health care like my family do?

Do you believe that people who have private health insurance do not use the HSE? They don't have to use it if they also have a medical card. Which a great many do. And which a great many NI people would be eligible to apply for.

The HSE can't even afford to pay its own nurses let alone treat vast numbers of new patients.

Then that is an issue for the Irish govmt. You can't really lay that at the foot of NI. Everyone I know with private health insurance uses it to avoid Letterkenny hospital and go straight to Altnagelvin in Derry so I'd challenge you there. But this really is off topic.
I accept you apology btw.

But in a United Ireland there would be no NI, no NHS. Just ROI and the HSE.

The money for the hospital in Derry would STOP. The money for all hospitals in the former NI would stop. No doubt some would close. People in need of cancer treatment would have to travel to centres of excellence as that is HSE practice, just as people in Donegal have to travel to Galway now for their chemo.

So that would be the end of them travelling east for treatment, there would be zero point.

Nurses in NI would flee to the UK for work. The money is far far better, the opportunities for training far advanced. So who would fill the void? Not Irish nurses, who all emigrate if they can. Philipino nurses most likely, as happened in the 90s.

Doctors would flee too - it's far far tougher being a doctor in the HSE than in the NHS. Posts remain vacant here for months. Want to replace an actual Consultant? Forget it. The government can't offer the same salary as the UK.

It would be an epic disaster. How can anyone possibly justify it?

"It would be an epic disaster. How can anyone possibly justify it?"

1,2,3 PROJECT FEAR.

I realise the convo has moved on. However, it struck me as odd that the current political division on the island as Northern Ireland and Ireland is being compared to Scotland and England.

Scotland and England are two historically distinct countries. The partition of Ireland (coming up to 100 years ago) was carried out to create a separate protestant majority area (Northern Ireland) and was never historically a separate country from the rest of Ireland, like England was/is to Scotland. It seems that soon the very reason for it's creation will be gone as the demographics of the minority population may be recovering in such numbers so as to be in equal numbers if not again the majority in that part of the island. Whatever the future, hopefully the miracle of a modern secular state will be born. Whether by itself or otherwise.

It is strange how much influence religion plays/has played in mainstream NI politics, though. Even from it's very creation. All the rev'd's involved in a way you don't see elsewhere. Indeed Rev'd Paisley even founded a party. The DUP. I think you'd be hard pressed to find the proportion of bonkers creationist fundamentalists in any western european country. The advent of People before profit, the Greens success. The continued existence of the Alliance party always gives reassurance.

I don't know how the circle of the border can be squared. It seems to be a priority for the EU as it is for Ireland. The all island economic activity benefits everyone and adds a premium for meat and dairy. Even in marketing for tourism. The economy in NI is different from GB. This was not a serious point of discussion during the ref campaign. And that is not even taking into account the peace process. If Scotland voted for independence, it would be interesting to see what loose connections could be formed to the benefit of NI.

Yes, the eighth net contributor (per head of population) is leaving. However, the benefits may return to the EU. Financial passporting and industries having or wanting to be established in the EU. This could all help out with NI. Even if some of these were to establish in Ireland, it could benefit people from Northern Ireland as well. Many people cross the border for work and the common travel area is set to continue, everyone seems to think.

Elspeth, I know there have probably been swingeing cutbacks, but I think the conditions for their private practice alongside the HSE for Consultants in Ireland is very favourable. I don't think Irish Consultants are 'fleeing'. A lot of people get professional experience abroad. Or even go to live and work abroad. This is not unique to Ireland. I have attended Irish Consultants who have worked in both the UK and the US and returned home to work.

I also think what you are saying about nurses interesting too. Would they flee to the UK full trained? Student nurses (new students) will no longer get a bursary and will have to pay the tuition fees in the UK like other students.

It sounds like everyone is fleeing. If you're the last one, don't forget to turn out the lights?

They wouldn't have to pay tuition fees post Unification so hey! We have an advantage!

So they get trained, fees paid, full grant. Yay! Then the London hospitals hold an open day in a hotel near the college and they realise at 22 they could earn ten grand more in the UK just for starters. That's what happens every single year in ROI.

But hey....I'm sure it would be completely different. Everyone will stay and it'd be great! The haemorrhaging of nurses will stop for.......reasons!

m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/exodus-of-irish-nurses-wooed-to-uk-by-lure-of-travel-car-and-housing-subsidies-35441709.html

It kinda seems like people who talk about Unification think the NHS is going to continue in some form. All the benefits of being in the UK but with the continuation of EU funding. The NHS is the greatest health care system in the world. You can get breast reductions for free, gastric banding....all sorts. None of that happens elsewhere.

Another thing.

In ROI you can have free travel once you're over 66. Currently 700,000 odd qualify.

It would go up by about 270,000 post Unification. Overnight.

Wouldn't be possible. Would be the first thing to go.

I think it's pretty insulting to suggest that people are so single-minded that they wouldn't be able to work through differences, real or perceived, to achieve a common goal.
Isn't this exactly why the Executive has yet to reform?

I don't know enough about trade to comment, but regarding the movement of people, I don't think anyone in Westminster has really grasped that people in border regions could be crossing several times a day.

I think Brexit will bring about reunification. maybe not immediately, Elspeth is correct I think, it possibly wouldn't pass the vote. In a few years times around the centenary, and with a FF/SF Gov't it may well.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/15/brexit-northern-irish-border

I'm from a nationalist background. The thought of a united Ireland to me was always a nice idea but logistical nightmare, bad for the economy, bad for peace etc.

My views changed after the brexit vote. We're getting a logistical nightmare enforced upon us (border issues), threat to economy, pound fooked, peace potentially threatened. And the DUP wanted it.

I'd vote for a united Ireland in the morning. And arlene only has herself to blame.

And, no, the south can't afford us exactly, but make no mistake, even the tories would be willing to pay the south for 10 years post reunification, simply to get rid of us.

There are some marvellous quotes in that Guardian article:

"...the only reason more people aren’t getting worked up is that nobody knows what the fuck is going on. “It’s like being led by a blind tortoise,” he says of Theresa May, then adds that his own children wouldn’t know where the border was, even though they live barely half a mile from it."

"Rita Flynn, in McCreesh’s with her granddaughter Majella Winters, remembers back even further than that, to the 1940s and 50s, when you had to book to cross from north to south, then had to be back on your own side by 9pm." (So much for the idea of a golden pre-EU age when there was no border).

Also some interesting stuff about the fact that even inside the EU, the border still exists for oil, and consignments of oil products have to be very careful not to cross the border inadvertently (this is presumably because of differences in excise duties) - they often have to take a long way round to avoid it.

Agreed, Misti, it was a great read (I used to know the writer slightly). Thanks for linking, woman.

Beautiful pictures too. I know it's superficial, but for the beauty and literature and music I'd migrate to a UI from this 'nasty little backwater' in a flash.

It is something I think about often, woman, except there is every chance that the Irish economies will be screwed as badly/even worse than Britain's post-Brexit .

Elspeth... few things...

Yes.. ni can't really support itself fully atm but people here still pay tax. It's not like our hospitals etc are solely funded by England. You wouldn't suddenly get 10000 extra freeloading pensioners queuing at your luas stop. And yes, the NHS was great. But it's not great now. It's on its knees and looks to be heading towards privatisation anyway, thanks to the tories. There has been talk of reducing the number of hospitals in NI for years anyway, and my brother, a consultant, thinks it's a great idea. Maybe reunification would be the chance to close letterkenny in favour of Altnagelvin, for example. You think dublin has issues filling consultancy roles? Try antrim, lol. It's the same everywhere. I wasn't awarevthere was such a big difference in salary though. My bro used to work in dublin but moved to England solely to get trainee consultant position. He has since moved back and works in the north but his preference for a job had been "anywhere north of/inc dublin", so he certainly wasn't put off by salaries in HSE. Besides, once the pound falls even further (in my economic expertise this is inevitable) you might find the healthcare professionals flooding back.

Part of the reason ni had difficulty supporting itself was the high number of public sector jobs. This has decreased considerably in the last few years in the civil service, so we're heading in the right direction at least.

The problem being that we're already seeing brexit have an impact on the private sector here with some big employers already stating their intentions to move south or to England. Reunification would put a stop to that, if not actively encourage businesses to move here. As much as we're a bit of a mess, we also have positive points. Our education system is superior to the rest of the Uk so on the whole we have an educated workforce. A reunified Ireland could also do wonders for the tourism industry, who knows, lol?