Will Brexit deliver Irish reunification?

[Drunkvet]

Just that- will a united Ireland be an after effect of Brexit? Let's be honest, without EU money NI is going to cost the UK government ££££; NI has always been the annoying, problem child. Both UK and EU have said there will be no hard border but, surely, there will have to be a border and customs control somewhere? So it would make sense to have the border around the island of Britain (Eng/Scot/wal)
The demographics in N.Ireland are changing. We no longer have a unionist majority at Stormont. Well TBH we don't have a devolved govmt at all ATM but that's a whole, other thread.
While I can't see a UI this year or next year I do feel that Brexit has brought it forward and there will be a border poll in the next 5-10 years.

I don't think reunification will happen any time soon.

I do think history will see Brexit as the trigger point for the disintegration of the UK, with both NI and Scotland leaving.

Its not faux offence, imagine if England refereed to people in Scotland as those living in the North of England. Do you think they would be offended? Do you think it would be faux offence?

Good grief. Read what you wrote. Scotland is not physically part of England, so I doubt people would be offended, they would just think that you were irredeemably stupid. NI, however, is physically located in the north of the island of Ireland.

The EU will not agree to the EU border being manned only by cameras. It's not just about customs: it's about VAT, and excise duty, and veterinary checks, and phytosanitary checks, and checks to ensure that the food crossing the border is produced and processed in facilities that meet EU food safety standards. There will be a hard border for goods; the only question is whether it will be between NI and GB, or between NI and ROI.

I have 2 questions.

1: why is NI so expensive to support that neither GB or ROI want it?

2: is there any possibility that NI could have its own independence like Scotland? I.e; not part of UK or ROI?

But still be part of the EU.

It might not be faux offence, but that sure as hell is a faux analogy
And yet you dont explain why its a faux analogy.

There is no established church in Ireland
Why does their have to be an established church? Different countries do things in different ways.

It cannot be safely manned so a 1/1000 chance of being pulled over is not an option
And there in lies the problem, if its not an option then their is no such thing as peace in N.I. and this was always going to happen Brexit or not.

I think there are bigger fish to fry
lol some people think Brexit is the end of the universe, others have more important things to worry about.

Scotland is not physically part of England, so I doubt people would be offended, they would just think that you were irredeemably stupid. NI, however, is physically located in the north of the island of Ireland.

Look at a MAP, oh wait I am wrong Scotland is an island floating somewhere above England, its not physically connected to England. Duh!

The level of intelligence on MN is really high tonight.

And yet you dont explain why its a faux analogy.

Because Scotland is not part of England. NI is however part of (the island of) Ireland. If you say Scotland is in the north of England, you are wrong in every possible way. If you say NI is in the north of Ireland, you are correct.

Please tell me that you are trolling, or at least not British (or Irish). Surely everyone knows that Scotland is not part of England, but Northern Ireland is part of Ireland? The clue is in the name.

1: why is NI so expensive to support that neither GB or ROI want it?

Despite several posters saying otherwise, we the UK does want it, despite it being expensive. FYI Scotland is even more expensive.

why is NI so expensive to support that neither GB or ROI want it?

I don't think (most of) GB doesn't want it.

The reason that it's expensive is that it's one of the most economically underdeveloped parts of western Europe, and the reason for that is that it spent many years in the grip of what was effectively a civil war, during which it was cut off from GB by the Irish Sea, and from its neighbour by a militarised border.

Because Scotland is not part of England. NI is however part of (the island of) Ireland. If you say Scotland is in the north of England, you are wrong in every possible way. If you say NI is in the north of Ireland, you are correct.

So Scotland is where? a) West of England, b)East of England or c) North of England? .

N.I. is north of Ireland but it is not IN the north of Ireland any more than Scotland is IN the north of England.

NRTFT. There does not need to be a hard border - Norway is not in the customs union but has no hard border with Sweden.

Yes, but Norway does accept FoM (as well as all the regulations of the EU and makes substantial contributions to its budget) which the UK doesn't want to.

De-lurking to say this thread is really interesting and I have a couple of questions if no one minds?

I'm in Scotland and am aware that my experience of people from Ireland and Northern Ireland is limited, but with that in mind I'm wondering...

A number of the Northern Irish people I know describe themselves as "Ulster Scots". This wasn't a term I had heard until I moved to the West Coast of Scotland (I'm from Inverness!) and I'm aware it can have sectarian connotations. These people are very pro-UK, however are also very pro-Scottish and indeed would only consider living here or back home in Northern Ireland. I wonder what would happen to their identity in the event that Scottish independence did happen?

I guess what I'm asking is whether unionist people would ally themselves (on a personal as opposed to political level I guess) with a now-independent group that wasn't part of the UK, or with the rest of the UK? Is this the sort of thing that might affect reunification with Ireland?

My second thought is about the NHS. The Irish people I know lament the fact that they have an insurance-based system which I understand can be excellent at times, but has real failings in long-term and chronic care. Would the people of Northern Ireland be willing to give up the NHS and move to an insurance-based healthcare system and might this affect their views on reunification? Also my understanding is that Ireland is gradually liberalising e.g. with legalisation of gay marriage, softening of stances on abortion, and might this political disparity affect things?

I appreciate my experiences are anecdotal however Northern Ireland was in my mind when I voted in the EU referendum and I'd be really interested in some views other than those I have been exposed to.

I think you are probably just trolling now, but in case you are not British and therefore genuinely don't know the geography of the British Isles:

Scotland is a part of the island of Great Britain, and is located to the north of England - it is not in the north of England. (Prepositions matter).

There is a geographical place called "Ireland". It encompasses the whole island, ie both NI and the ROI. Therefore, NI is physically located in Ireland.

Thanks anon and misti I have misinterpreted some of the posts on this and other threads that suggest NI is an unwanted pain in the arse for GB. It certainly doesn't seem important to GB.

WRT the civil war, I think it is fairly well accepted that GB was the cause of that. IMO I think GB should be financially responsible for assisting NI to catch up with the rest of the UK/ROI regardless of whether No remains part of the UK or not. If there was to be independence for NI I would certainly expect GB to continue to pay support to NI.

NRTFT. There does not need to be a hard border - Norway is not in the customs union but has no hard border with Sweden.

This is incorrect. There is no hard border for people, because both countries are in Schenghen. But there is a customs border. Indeed, at the NI select committee meeting about customs issues, the MPs present were advised to go and visit the Sweden-Norway border to see how it works.

Note that Norway is of course in the EEA, so regulatory harmonisation is less of a problem than it would be for NI in the event of a hard brexit. If we remain inside the EEA (but outside the EU customs union) some but not all of the issues for NI-ROI trade will go away.

There is some (inevitably simplified) info here, or if anyone is interested I will link to the transcript of the NI select committee meeting that discussed this in detail.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/close-sweden-norway-ties-despite-eu-border-dividing-them-1.2683072

You know what really pisses me off? And has done since that vote?

People in the UK or NI saying "maybe Irish Unification is on the cards, doncha know"

Why? Why the fuck would it be on the cards? Why would it be the most remote option?

Cos NI is pissed off?

So what?

Seriously, so what?

It's like people are thinking well it's ok, I'm sure the ROI will come along and clean our shit up. I'm sure they'll be dying for Unification, they're all Fenians anyhow, would die for dear old Wolfe Tone, been bleating about getting NI back for donkeys haven't they? They'll ruddy well trip over themselves to sniff around now, certainly if the Pope tells 'em too, hurr hurr....and think of all that EU moolah they'll be able to claim! Pay off some of that bank debt, eh?

Oh FUCK OFF.

I didn't know that about the hard border between Norway and Sweden, I stand corrected. Thanks, Misti.

Why? Why the fuck would it be on the cards? Why would it be the most remote option?

For the reasons being discussed on this thread. I would have thought that was obvious.

What reasons?

Exactly?

Read the thread! It's right up there^

lala a "hard border" border is probably not a great way of describing it, because Norway is in the EEA (so regulatory harmonisation isn't an issue and this reduces the number of inspections and checks that need to be done), and because there is a long history of cooperation on technical and practical issues so as to keep goods flowing. Obviously that requires a lot of infrastructure.

The problem for NI is that (a) in the event of a hard brexit it won't be in the EEA. This has complicated implications for regulatory issues, as the UK bodies that currently ensure compliance with EU regs will lose their status overnight; and (b) because there is no existing infrastructure. For example, camera checks and computerised customs procedures require hardware and software that may take a number of years to put in place. And the only border inspection points in ROI are, I believe, in Shannon and Dublin.

I can't see a single solitary thing that'd make our government take on NI, so I'm bemused you can.

Neutral observer here.

41% voted for Brexit in Northern Ireland presumably the vast majority of that 41% would vote against Irish unification !

If say 35% was a starting point for remaining in the Union before a single vote was calculated from the 59% that voted to remain in the EU .
It surely would be a very tall order for a poll to succeed in favoring Irish Unification. The pro 'Union remaining voters would only need to get 15% out of 59% basically 1 in 4 to prevent Irish Unification.

They're also not the only people who would be polled!