Remainers - What do you want? When do you want it?

[optionalrationale]

We had the referendum, we had the legal challenge, we had the Supreme Court ruling, Article 50 has been triggered. The United Kingdom will no longer be part of the European Union.

So my questions to Remainers are
What do you want? When do you want it?

Here's what I want..

I want the negotiations to go well. I want future relations with our neighbours to be cordial. I want a good deal for UK and the EU. I want us to walk away if their demands are unacceptable (and stem from vindictiveness and to deter other members from following our lead). I want the UK to be free to make good trade deals with any country it wants. I want the UK to lead in creating a new model of trade without excessive interference in each partner's social and political arena.

"Well Lets hope you will be proved right and post brexit UK nationals will be happily wiping bums, pouring drinks and cleaning hotel rooms with a smile on their lips and a song in their hearts....
Ime uk nationals and achoo leavers then their noses up at these jobs.
In the national news today it reports Nine hundred care staff PER DAY leaving "

Apart from, I should have lumped this in with my previous post of yet more offensive deriding of british nationals, Ill just answer the 900 number. Thank heavens they are leaving. Until somebody stops this body shop of roll them in, pay minimum wage or less mentality, employment conditions will continue in the downward trend weve seen in the last 10 years. Its basic economics. If theres an abundance of a commodity, the value plummets. Thats what we have with those working in care and low skilled jobs. There is no reason, none, that care staff need to be paid so low. The cost of residential care is at the highest its ever been, the wages of staff are at the lowest theyve ever been.

I will dispute the claim that immigration hasnt had an impact on wages, if only for the fact that no one, has kept any data. No one. Take the furore over 2015 figures for example, the ONS said something like 250k eu migrants came to the Uk in that year, yet the DWP state they issued 600k new national insurance numbers to eu migrants that year. Lots of debate, and number crunching went on to explain the discrepancies, but the reality is, no one knows.

The is a difference between net migration figures and the NI figures because temporary workers who leave within the year aren't counted.

Also the LSE say that immigration isn't responsible for low wage growth, and the Bank of England agree that the impact is actually extremely small, and only in areas with high levels of immigration.

The biggest impact on wages in this country has been the fall out from the 2008 crash, its why we can have nearly full employment, but low wage growth. Lots of people have been willing to accept lower wages to keep their job.

Its basic economics? No its not, and using basic economics to explain it inevitably leads you to the wrong answer.

Donostia, Given, that none of us know what brexit is indeed going to mean, youd have to look at what we do know, not what we dont dont know. So the only firm point of reference at this time is, whilst we dont know what the UKs position on migration will be, we do know the EUs position on migration, and you can also look to your host nations position also.

Currently there is masses of EU legislation on migration. Would you be eligible for a Blue Card for example? Is your job within one of the EU quotas? Also, Is your job within one of the host nations quotas? Whats the host nations criteria for work migration? etc etc etc

Another complexity is however, that as youve said about dual nationality, the EU could implement a resolution to this issue, however a host nation, may not implement it. They may in turn, revert to national criteria, not EU criteria. About 10 eu states, refuse dual nationality. Could the EU force them to get in line with other member states? I really dont know. Theres so much outside the influence of the UK. So in short, I truly dont know at this time.

I think however, what you may be asking is, as a leave voter, what did I think of your situation when I voted?

An honest answer is, we have been living and working in europe for generations before the eu existed, and we'll be working and living in europe for many generations afterwards. Thats what I thought, and still do.

How the 'mechanism' to do that will shake down, I truly dont know. Will you be able to claim your state pension and state benefits whilst over there? Probably not. I could waffle about how it was before, but thats all that would be. Waffle. We're into new territory here.

What I dont believe is, as here, that eu nations will indeed be lining up trains to deport those nasty UK people. As here, you already have protected rights. No host nation can undo those rights youve gained as a previous eu member. The right to permanent residency for example, is absolutely enforceable. Brexit is a forward looking process, not a backwards one, and I would think in the short term, the biggest impact of brexit, will be on those wishing to live/work in the eu in the future, not those already there.

The majority of eu nationals living in the UK have the right to permanent residency. The majority. It costs £65. Thats it.

And nearly one third of applicants are being turned down - and one can reasonably assume that early applicants are those who have the clearest-cut case for PR.

I read yesterday that a student with a British mother and French father, who has lived in the UK for essentially all her life, has been turned down for PR because she did not hold private health insurance as a child.. Her mother was born abroad to British parents, so has the type of British citizenship that cannot be passed on automatically to her children (this will surprise some people but it affects all Britons born abroad: my own children cannot transmit their British citizenship to their children).

If a child of a British parent, who has been raised and educated in the UK cannot receive PR then many, many other people will fall through the gaps.

(Don't have a link right now but if anyone disbelieves me I will go and find one.)

I did a quick jotting on the back of an envelope as to how many EU citizens I knew, (not counting the Irish, who are a special case). In less than a minute I could think of 10 people, 8 of whom were married to Britons, one wasn't married, and the 10th I didn't know his marital status. I should add that in nearly all cases they were working in health care, or teaching or medical research.

We are constantly told on MN that anecdote is not data, but I wonder how typical this is?

so has the type of British citizenship that cannot be passed on automatically to her children (this will surprise some people but it affects all Britons born abroad: my own children cannot transmit their British citizenship to their children).
My DC also has this. Most of my acquaintances are unaware such a status exists and are shocked when they hear it, given her apparent, lifelong 'Britishness'.

Thanks for your honest answer Caroline. i didn't actually expect leave voters to consider my situation, although Gibraltar and NI perhaps.

yes the ideal scenario would be for my host country to offer dual. DHs job would be fine but mine less so as I'm self employed- but my host country is kinder to spouses and families than the UK seems to be.

mine too! DS was born abroad as was DB (both parents british) and are both now aware that they must make sure their children are born on British soil. if DS had children with another Brit also born abroad to british parents in theory his children could be stateless as they wouldn't be entitled to British citizenship nor the citizenship of our host country which doesn't offer it by birth only parentage!!

Exactly
No one has a fucking clue, esp not the braying morons who have been trying to separate the uk for the eu for decades
Where is the plan!?
Where is the info!?
Come on!
You've had long enough!....
You won!
Come on!
Where is the plan!!!!!?

"Waffle"
Hah
Yes
That's exactly what it is
🙄

And even though I am eligible for dual eu citizenship as are my dc I am still very angry on behalf of those who aren't
This is such a clusterfuck
I await the dawn of the new Albion
With trepidation
😞😞😞😞

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/12/foreign-states-may-have-interfered-in-brexit-vote-report-says

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/11/student-loan-interest-rate-rise-uk-inflation-brexit?CMP=fb_gu

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/04/top-brexiteers-now-openly-supporting-the-french-national-front/#more-63081

Si think some posters are naive. I'm sorry but the idea that eu citizens only have to pay £65 to get their PR card is laughable at the very least.
This is clearly said by someone who hasn't tried to fill the bloody thing.

I am in the process of filling that document up. I have been living here for nearly 20 years and will probably be one of those who don't get it. Because I am falling short of 5 years continuous work by a few months or because I haven't quite earn enough from being self employed. Partly because the whole idea when you are self employed is ensure you have as little 'benefit' as possible, not trying to ensure that you are earning at least £8k a year. Partly because I've also become ill so can't work full time.
It doesn't change the fact I've always paid my NIC and never claimed any benefits but that's not enough apparently.
It's also worth noting that it's harder the get the PR as a spouse of British citizen than as the spouse of an eu citizen who has the PR card.... Go and figure. (That also means it's easier for someone who has an eu spouse to get te British citizenship than it is if your spouse is British btw as the PRC was only created for that - getting your citizenship, not as a mean to prove you can stay in the UK as that was a given)

As for not knowing what the rules will be immigration wise...
Well we DO know what the rules are for non eu citizens. There is a lot of expectation that the same rules will apply to eu citizens (which make sens TBH). These rules means that being married to a Brit is worth nothing when you want to apply to stay in the UK.
So yes there has always been movement between countries. Yes it has happened before so why not in the future.
What is also happening NOW is families being ripped apart by the current immigration system, Brits forced to go and live abroad to able to stay with their spouse and children. Somyunwill forgive me to expect the same tomhappen to eu citizens too. After all, we aren't much better than people coming from India or Singapore for example so that we will have a special treatment wont we???

Badders,

The 'what's your plan' lament trotted out is a bit silly, really. What are you expecting? One person on an Internet forum to come up with a full plan for unravelling 40+ years of entanglement and a comprehensuve trade deal, acceptable to both the U.K. And eu? If they could they would be paid 10s of millions for it (at least).

It will take teams of experts on both sides to come up with something, and it will involve years of layered negotiations. This is not to say it is impossible. It is, imo, a lot simpler than the Manhattan project for instance. It will just require a lot of hard work and good will on both sides. And, if successful, will probably actually give us far mire amicable relationships with the rest of the European nation states than we have had for a long time.

We went into the EU (or ECSC as was) on a leap of faith and we will have to come out of it the same way.

donostia I think there is a rule saying that their children would get the British citizenship if not getting it would me they were becoming stateless (as explained in your situation).

I personally think that this system says a lot about how Britain sees citizenship. It is clearly linked with where you are born and not being born in the Uk means cannot possibly be British.
Same with loosing your right to vote if you have lived abroad for too long.

The idea of what constitute a 'real' British person (with all your rights) is quite a restricted one (born and living in the UK) when yu are living in a world so globalised now. Citizens of nowehere....

larry I'm personally xpecting a government to NOT start such a process without knowing what are the possible outcomes, how good or bad it will be for the country and how to get prepared to all eventualities.
I expect the government to tell what is its aim (hard Brexit, soft Brexit, what are we aiming for ?) but also have a plan B if things don't go as planned.

When joining the EU, it was a leap of faith knowing what the UK would get going there. The free market etc...
Where we heading now is .... a big void. Because there is no plan, no statement saying 'this is what we wish for/where we are trying to head towards', we are going into sometng with our eyes lose just hoping fo the best.
It's crazy.

As for years of negociations, I'm sorry but te UK only has TWO years to noegociate its exit. And the another THREE years of transition (read three more years to try and negotiate another agreement).
Seeing that what TM is asking for (a brand new agreement et especially for the UK) usuallybtakes 10+ years, has to ratified by all countries (do you remember what happened with Canada and the province of Belgium thatbstopped the process for a wile?), I wu Do say that three years is nowhere near enough.
because as you said yourself, it's complex, never been done before etc etc.

Maybe this is something that should have been pointed out VERY CLEARLY to people before the vote? And something that should have been planned instead of just jumping ahead with our two feet just after an ADVISORY referendum.

Thanks @bluepeppers I must admit I haven't properly looked into it as he is only 3!

I am quite shocked at "leap of faith" being the plan So many livelihoods at risk and for what? Nice nouns which mean very little in a globalised world.

caroline it's not basic economics that when you have more overseas workers the value of labour in low skilled roles plummets.

I can understand why you think this though.

It is a lot more complex than that. E.g

1. You use the example of care workers. These workers used to be directly employed by the local authority. Now they have all been outsourced to private providers - but even though they are in the private sector, they are providing a largely publicly funded service.

The wages the local authority can pay depend on funding from central government and local rates. If that funding only covers 15 mins on the minimum wage, that's all you will get. And fewer migrants means a lower tax take, so less money to pay the wages of all publicly funded roles. There has been massive - colossal - outsourcing of formerly public sector low paid jobs into the private sector by this administration. The same applies to all these jobs.

1. I've written before about the government's strategy to prevent wages being collectively bargained by a trade union, leading to a collapse in the number of workers who have their wages negotiated collectively on a sector by sector basis, producing higher wages. This government legislates on the basis that the bargaining power of the care services provider and the individual worker is equal. The only exception is the so called 'national living wage' - but someone's hourly rate is frankly irrelevant. What matters is your weekly wage. This is a government strategy, given wings by the opportunities presented by the financial crisis. It's been dressed up as 'immigration' driving down wages - and this was a safe bet as it deflected responsibility - until people like Osborne lost control of the national narrative with britain's ratner moment on June 23.

1. In and out of work benefits are designed to force people to take low paid work. The loss of the tax take from immigrant workers to pay for benefits will only increase the government's motivation to do this.

Low paid workers' wages for ex public sector roles ( 100,000s of jobs) fell because the government abolished the 'two tier workforce' rules in 2011. These rules used to mean that a private provider of public services taking on new staff had to pay the same (higher, public sector) pay that it's ex-local authority staff were getting. This opened the door to an explosion in low pay and zero hour contracting.

1. You might appreciate this one. The ECJ joined in, in 2013, with a ruling that allowed private sector outsourcing companies to abandon the national collective pay rates they should have been contractually required to pay to their ex- local authority staff.

Meanwhile, the government has been hammering away, producing more and more anti-trade union laws - because unions traditionally sit alongside immigrants as useful 'others' to blame.

There are many other complicating factors! E.g. The rise of automation, making it possible for the first time for employers to easily calculate short irregular hours and to summon workers at short notice. And of course if your job can be done by someone else with 30 mins training (or even by a machine), then without collective wage bargaining your power is precisely zero.

The 'what's your plan' lament trotted out is a bit silly, really. What are you expecting?

Something like the plan put forward by the Flexcit group of brexiters, perhaps? A group who are, incidentally, as flabbergasted by the government's incompetence as any remainer - if not more so, as they appear to have done their homework on the customs and border issues in some detail.

The idea that we should just sit back and shrug about the lack of plan is simply astonishing (especially coming from someone who claims to work or have worked in the financial sector).

larry so no need to panic because getting ourselves out of the EU will be a lot less complicated than secretly collaborating to build the world's first ever atomic bomb.

Well I don't know about anyone else but I'm certainly reassured by that.

In any other walk of the life it would be classed as gross incompetence.

Figment it is even more complicated than that. Scotland pursues a different policy for public sector / quasi public sector roles. All care sector employees are paid the Scottish Living Wage (£8.33) with standard employment terms. The Scottish EU National figure is less than 200k out of a population of just under 5.5 million.

Scots pay a bit more council tax to fund this. Scottish care workers will be collecting much less in tax credits and HB than their English counterparts. EU workers in these sectors in England will not be earning enough to pay income tax.

The UK unemployment rate is quoted by the ONS at 4.7% or 1.5 million. However the number of working age people "economically inactive" is almost 9 million. The BoE estimates that over 1 million jobs were "protected" by lack of productivity increases driven by monetary policy post crash. The underemployment rate is estimated at above 5%. This gives a much greater degree of slack in the economy than the headline figures suggest.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/our-hidden-army-of-under-employed-10211368.html

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/29/millions-of-uk-workers-stuck-in-wrong-job-analysis-shows

I agree that economics is never simple.