Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

Ian Dunt on it again:

^Just accidentally watched May's Easter message, with the tatty candles, the pained face, the nonsense gibberish about Christianity and
the desperate authoritarian garbage about Brexit. For what it's worth, I'll do my part to fight her vision for this country all the way.
When they say unity, they mean obedience. They will not receive it.
It's this type of thing which reminds us we're in a culture war. It's not really about trade or standards or the rest. It's about the 1950s
rising up out the grave and trying to inflict its conformity and tedium and utter lack of imagination on the rest of us. It won't succeed.^

Erdogan has won the Turkish referendum.

Not all votes counted but they are at 51.4% v 48.6%.

Time for a joke.

Turkey result is grim in the extreme.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-phone-sex-pest-finally-10232567
UKIP finally sack sex pest Arthur Thackeray three months after Scottish party chief admitted 10 offences

The former chief of staff to Euro MP David Coburn was put on the sex offenders’ register for making obscene phone calls to women.

howabout Many other Uk expats have no Uk assets.
Sounds like you know the wealthier ones.
Some I used to know emigrated precisely because they couldn't afford even the smallest UK property and needed to make a small private pension go further.

Of course it's wiser to keep a UK asset, but that advice reminds me of threads when people ask why an OP on trouble doesn't have savings to cover unexpected expenses.

Many people don't have the money for a contingency fund.
Whether a decision is about a job or new baby in the uk, or retiring somewhere cheap, they make the best decision they can and just hope nothing goes wrong.

That may be one of the definitions of mc finances: sufficient assets to cope if something unexpectd happens.

Yet another Kipper convicted.
For a small party, they have a lot of officials who commit crimes.
Sounds like they vet political views, but don't care how sleazy their people are.

@jmalsin
Turkey's opposition CHP says it will challenge the results of today's referendum after initial results show a narrow victory for 'yes' vote

I think the EU would think that Schengen would look too much like schadenfreude at this point - which is not to say it wouldn't be funny.

If we could only stay on an interim deal until the supposed FTA emerges mid to late 2020s, I'd be ok with that.

Piece in the Mail today quoting some Tory MPs that May isn't in it for the long haul & will go soon after the next election.

‘I don’t know the exact timetable'... 'But she’s certainly only a transitional PM.’ A third Minister agreed. ‘She’ll fight an Election, then be gone in 18 months.’

It goes without saying that that's the crunch: whether we get Hammond or a swivel-eyed loon...

It's also makes this point:

But there is now something strangely semi-detached about Mrs May’s premiership. Some of this aloofness is relatively superficial.

Her statement on the triggering of Article 50 was lacklustre. Ministers were perplexed at how long it took her to issue a reassuring message to the country in the wake of the Westminster terror attack.

Yet in other areas a serious vacuum is being allowed to develop. It was left to Defence Secretary Michael Fallon to provide the Government’s response to US air strikes in Syria. It took another four days for Mrs May to personally discuss the attack with President Trump. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson was sent naked into the G7 negotiating chamber – a harrowing prospect for all concerned – and emerged humiliated when his push for fresh sanctions against Russia was rebuffed.

A Downing Street briefing appeared to undermine US attempts to draw a red line over future chemical weapons use by the Assad regime in Syria.

Yes, much of this happened while the PM was on a walking holiday in Wales. But phones have now made it to the principality. And allowing the impression to form that the PM and Foreign Secretary, and British and US administrations, are out of step over Syria has major geopolitical implications.

For those who work alongside Mrs May and her team on a day-to-day basis, an odd paradox is developing. A senior ministerial adviser says: ‘On one level they’re control freaks, yet on another level they just seem happy to let stuff drift. Look at the Budget. It’s not so much, “We want to do x, not you,” but more, “We don’t want anyone doing x.”

Link

woman Oh look. An Opposition. Maybe they could give us some tips

If we could only stay on an interim deal until the supposed FTA emerges mid to late 2020s, I'd be ok with that.*

I meant to say - it would everyone plenty of time to get out. But Brexiters will be chomping at the bit by that point - I don't think they'll have the patience to wait for the FTA they claim to want. At some point we may to have to choose sudden death: stay or go.

something strangely semi-detached about Mrs May’s premiership
Because she's not the premier?

Mahir Zeynalov‏*@MahirZeynalov*
Erdogan calls allied political leaders, congratulates over the Yes win. Opposition parties CHP and HDP report widespeard irregularities, claim the counting is not over. Supreme Election Board says 76% of ballots opened, Yes vote is 50,36%.

State TV is reporting 99.9% pf ballots counted and yes vote 51.2%

Erdogan will have the power to bring back the death penalty, and there will be no opposition and judicial system screwed.

This is the Hitler/Saddam/insert your favourite dictator of choice moment. Or its the brink of civil war.

The Associated Press‏*@AP*
BREAKING: Turkey's main opposition party says it will challenge 37 percent of the votes counted in the referendum.

Why?

Noah Blaser‏*@nblaser18*
Turkey's Electoral Board reportedly makes a last-minute ruling that ballots unsealed by local clerks are still valid
Unsealed ballots that can't be definitively proven to 'have come from outside' still valid, allege initial reports on Electoral Board ruling.

@BenjaminHarvey
Erdogan declares referendum victory in congratulatory calls to leaders of the AKP, MHP and BBP: AA #TurkishReferendum

Could have saved time and declared it yesterday.

The Syrian refugee crisis is about to get worse. Watch them get kicked out of Turkey to destabilise the EU.

The Westministenders Easter Message.

But Brexiters will be chomping at the bit by that point [2020]

For me the question arises, who will still be Brexiters? Will it be the ordinary folk who Farage stirred up so skilfully, or will it have just shrunk to the small bunch of wealthy Tory right-wingers?

Someone else said that voting leave will become like support for the Iraq war, most people will deny it.

When it becomes clear that Brexit isn't what was sold to them, the ordinary folk will be angry, but it will be done already, its why they have to act so swiftly and try to force the hardest of brexits, because any dithering might result in the ordinary folk realising they've been sold a pup

If Trump sacked Bannon, the alt-right payback would be fierce

Bannon has serious form for revenge against all who offend him
So has his boss
Spite Fight
< gets out popcorn hopefully >

Remember Bannon's most important sponsor is Mercer, the billionaire behind Cambridge Analytica, which he has used so effectively for both Trump and Brexit.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/donald-trump-steve-bannon-breitbart-215026

"... an epic, Kill Bill-style revenge saga that starts with Bannon leaking personal dirt on his enemies to the tabloids, using the megaphone of Breitbart News to exacerbate divisions inside the administration, and siccing an army of internet trolls on his adversaries to harass and defame them."

"It ends with Bannon using Cambridge Analytica data to identify and primary their vulnerable allies in Congress,
then releasing a “Where Trump Went Wrong” documentary on the eve of the November midterms and finally—in this revenge fantasy’s epic climax—
running against Trump himself in 2020."

“It’s not like it’s definitely going to be ‘Apocalypse Now,’ but it could be, and that’s the point,” said a close Bannon ally. “Do you really want to gamble with this in your first 100 days?” [ you feel lucky, punk ? ] < Channels Eastwood >

Breitbart have already pretty much said to all intents and purposes that they will blackmail Trump to keep Bannon. Which is why he will stay but will move to being out of sight and in the shadows.

That Mail article is fascinating. Its the SUNDAY Mail rather than Dacre's baby the Daily Mail. May is Dacre's buddy. The editor of the Sunday Mail hates his guts and does exactly the opposite to him (including making the Sunday Mail Remain in an act of perversion that makes you go cross eyed rather than swivel eyed). Don Hodges who wrote the article is the son of Glenda Jackson (former Labour MP) and is/was a Labour member who is a big Blairite and dislikes Miliband and Corbyn. He was said to be popular with Cameron and had a flirtation with supporting the LDs in 2014 inbetween quitting and rejoining Labour. He's since quit again due to Corbyn. He certainly has something of an agenda...

But back to May.

The issue with May is she is lacks vision. She's not a leader. She's a loner. Its something that was said from Day 1 about her having no allies in politics.

She's trying to look decisive, but then ends up being divisive. Every time she says something that she thinks is unifying, it blows up in her face as exactly the opposite, and the thing with it, is she seems surprised by the reaction every single time. The whole thing about the control freaks who let it drift, is because they are utterly clueless and don't want other people to notice and find out. The net result is all May is doing is trying to keep people within her party happy - she is not a people person and she is not a manager of people. Which means whoever shouts loudest gets listened to most. Its not because she thinks its the right thing, though I think in a lot of cases she's certainly not adverse to the idea and can go along with it. Even the hand holding incident is symptomatic of the whole thing. I do think her being a woman helps matters as there are plenty of men in the Tory Party who think they can push the issue more and thus this makes it a hell of a lot harder for her to keep them in line.

The ONLY thing that is ultimately making her popular is Jeremy Corbyn and a lack of alternative.

The very existence of the article only seems to emphasis the point. The sharks are circling and people are lining themselves up for the next Tory Smackdown. Who are these anonymous Ministers quoted in the piece? I don't think its just about Hodges being a Blairite by nature and wanting to stir the shit. I think there is more to it than that. Its coming from the Conservative party too.

It hardly says that the party, never mind the country is unified.

Why does May keep saying that? Its utter bollocks. We ALL know it.

Is it to delude herself? Is it to persuade the public? Or is it about the idea of keeping the party unified and behind her?

Ian Dunt talked about it being about obedience and conformity. I'm not convinced its about the general public.

The Tory Party conference speech was the first time she did this: she was wildered by the reaction from outside the room. She was speaking to her people and her audience. The only people she knows. Remember she doesn't mix in liberal circles and she doesn't do things like dine in London.

Is she doing the same again today with her Easter Message? Is she just speaking to 'her people' or the whole of the public? Or does she merely think the two are one and the same as she simply doesn't understand or know anything else as she's not in those circles and she's only hearing the echo chamber? Is it just about telling Conservatives to fall in line behind her?

Is she lost at sea trying to manage a global outward looking Britain when the only Britain she knows is the inward looking one? She might well believe in the concept in principle, but when it comes down to it, he's a woman who doesn't know how to use the internet for No.10's business so doesn't know what that really means in 2017 terms?

The fact that she keep repeating the message over and over again when its so glaringly obvious the opposite is true is her weakness and she doth protest too much.

Its all she's got because she doesn't have a clue what else to do.

Ten Months after Brexit and key individuals are still clueless about the mechanics of trade deals and seem to be caught with their trousers down about bloody obvious things (eg Gibraltar).

Is the article about how people are starting to notice that May is dangerously out of her depth and are losing patience with it?

I have to say, I think that article is one of the most telling I've seen in a while. Its certainly trying to prepare the ground for 'something'. I'm not quite sure what but its a loud rumble that all is not well and more is going to pop out of this.

woman who doesn't know how to use the internet really, is that true?
Even her 'teenagers' haven't helped her with that one

Interesting about Hodges. Saw his mum in King Lear in November, she looked happier than she'd ever been, even in government.

Thatcher too was criticised for not being 'clubbable'. And not having a hinterland.

Banks is circling. Timing is all.

I wonder how much they/ the circlers are co ordinating with the Pence team.

Trump was their 'in' in the US. May has been a fortuitous face so far for the Freedom Association , or whoever the cabal is, so far. But it's getting close to time to get rid of both of them.

Tom Newton Dunn‏ @tnewtondunn
Excl: Home Office looking at 'barista visas’ to ensure coffee shops and pubs are still fully staffed after Brexit;

www.thesun.co.uk/news/3345015/home-secretary-amber-rudd-wants-to-introduce-new-barista-visas-to-ensure-coffee-shops-and-pubs-are-still-fully-staffed-after-brexit/
EU BREW Home Secretary Amber Rudd is looking at introducing new ‘barista visas’ to ensure coffee shops and bars keep EU staff after Brexit

Brexit, reducing red tape and stopping immigration of eastern Europeans working in coffee shops.

Oh.

I've worked on a Working Holiday Visa in Australia. There is nothing like seeing signs saying 'WHV need not apply' on everything. For me, it underlined the racism that existed there.

Or use school kids to replace EU nationals:
www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/01/saturday-jobs-brexit-labour-shortage-young-people

This is interesting from the FT "London battles to keep hold of two main EU agencies: David Davis claims medicine and banking bodies will not have to leave Canary Wharf"

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/72ead180-229a-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

I don't believe that anyone in government could seriously think that we can keep the agencies. So what is the game?

My 1st cynical thought is that employers can legally pay less for those under 18 / 21 than for adults.
My 2nd equally cynical thought is workfare for 18+ Brits, so employess need pay nothing at all - 6 months "training" then let them go and train the next set of free mugs