Westminstenders: The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

[RedToothBrush]

The wheels on bus start to fall off, start to fall off…

Since Article 50 has been triggered – 8 days ago:

1. A week after a terror attack in London, the government threatened to stop co-operation over security issues with the EU. This was quickly retracted as ‘not being a threat’. Except it was.

2. The ‘Great’ Repeal Act White Paper was published. Its vague, lacks detail, does not have a draft bill and there is no plan for a public consultation over it. It proposes sweeping powers for the government without parliamentary scrutiny using Henry VIII powers.

3. HMRC have said the new computer system planned for launch in 2019, won’t be able to cope with the additional work which leaving the Customs Union would produce. It would be five times the work load which sounds like a lot more red tape.

4. Spain have said they would not oppose an Independent Scotland being in the EU.

5. May’s article 50 letter did not mention Gibraltar and after the publication of the EU draft document on how the Brexit process would be handled, this looks like a massive error and oversight. One of the clauses was that any future arrangements with regard to Gibraltar had to be settled with Spain bi-laterally rather than by the EU and the UK’s agreement with the EU would not apply to Gibraltar, unless Spain agreed. This has been taken as an affront to Gibraltar’s sovereignty, although the document says nothing about sovereignty. Michael Howard, however, decided this was sufficient grounds to threaten our ally Spain with war.

May has not condemned his comments, and laughed it off. Though she was happy to get worked up about the word ‘Easter’ a couple of days later.

Of course, this situation was entirely predictable and was predicted yet this situation seems to have taken the government by surprise. Our reaction, in the context of everything else, has made the UK look like a basket case.

6. The government’s plan to run talks on the UK’s settlement on leaving the EU in parallel with talks on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been rejected by the EU. Instead we must do things in stages, with advancement to the next stage only possible after completing the last: Stage 1 – Exit, Stage 2 – Preliminary agreement on future relation, Stage 3 – Exit/Transition Deal, Stage 4 – As third country status enter a new deal.

The effect of this also means that deals we currently have with counties like South Korea through the EU need to be revisited. There is no guarantee these countries will want to continue trading with us on the same terms, if they do not want to.

7. The EU has set out its own red lines. Our deal 'must encompass safeguards against...fiscal, social & environmental dumping'. Our transition deal must not last longer than three years and individual sectors, like banking, should not get special treatment.

Donald Tusk has said we don’t need a punishment deal as we are doing a good job of shooting ourselves in the foot, whilst Guy Verhofstadt said Brexit is Brexit is a 'catfight in Conservative party that got out of hand” and hoped future generations would reverse it.

8. May has admitted that we might well have no deal in place by the time we leave the EU. Until now we have been told we would have a deal in two years. She has also admitted an extension of free movement of people beyond Brexit.

9. The Brexit Select Committee published their report which warned about the dangers of exit without any deal, as well as talking about problems relating to the ‘Great’ Repeal Act, Gibraltar and NI. This is sensible and you’d think uncontroversial, but the Brexiteers threw the toys out of their pram saying it was too pessimistic. The government’s job is, of course, to plan for problems no matter how unlikely – such as disasters – and to hope that never happens. It seems that these Brexiteers don’t want to act responsibility or do their job.

10. Questions at the WTO have been asked about how Brexit will affect them. Interest in the subject came initially from Indonesia about Tariff Rate Quotas, but other parties who were watching closely were Argentina, China, Russia and the United States.

11. Phillip Hammond has openly said that there are a number of Tory MPs who want us to not make any agreement with the EU and to crash out in a chaotic exit.

12. Polling has suggested that people want Brexit to be quick and cheap. Not only that, but the word ‘Brexit’ has started to poll badly. Instead the Brexit department are advising officials to use the phrase “new partnership with Europe”. Lynton Crosby, the mastermind behind 2015’s Conservative victory has also warned that the Tories would probably lose 30 seats they gained from the LDs at an early election.

Of course, even a 2020 election might prove challenging with a transition deal still likely to be unresolved as Brexit drags on. Government strategy is, apparently, to hope that Remainer's anger will have dissolved by 2020.

Eight days in, and the Brexit Bus looks like it strayed into 1980's Toxeth and got torched, its wheels nicked, and graffitied with obscenities over its £350million pledge.

But rebels claim they can overturn the Government’s majority of 17, which would require nine Tories to defy Ms May if all opposition party MPs join forces with them. They hope the real prospect of defeat will force the Prime Minister to compromise

I am a bit tired of the noise made by these Tory rebels. When it comes to voting they dutiful troupe through the lobby which supports the Government stance. With the honourable exception of Ken Clarke. So I will get excited when I either see them rebel, or see May's policy change. If it changes, we must then make a lot of noise about it, and not let it slip under the radar.

I do wonder whether a change of policy now will be soon enough, or whether enough students have got the message that the UK is not welcoming, and will go elsewhere anyway?

Misti I agree international students should count, not least because they are part of the international definition of migrants for stats purposes according to the ONS.

The wording of the Lords amendment gives significant wiggle room - "for the duration of their studies". The estimated "net" figure has been running at close to +100k annually for several years now. There is an acknowledged issue with identifying leavers so it may be higher or lower than this. However the easiest way to deal with this is to assume that the net figure is beyond the "duration of their studies" and so the impact of including or excluding them is nil.

The other interesting thing with the Independent article is the failure to distinguish between different types of overseas students. Fees for non-EU students are about £18k so it is clear they make a contribution above home students. This is not the case for EU students currently benefiting from local UK rates of £9k, with concerns about their failure to repay loans if they leave the UK. In Scotland EU students benefit from zero fees.

Oh the irony of pints of cider being downgraded to half-litres now we've taken back control of our weights and measures that we never lost anyway.

Of course this was all going to happen anyway. In fact there wouldn't be any food on the shelves at all if we'd stayed in the EU, so let's be thankful for that.

the impact of including or excluding them is nil

This is incorrect because the assumption behind it is incorrect: many people do remain the country where they complete their higher education.

It's also incorrect for any individual year. This I think is another reason why May wants to include students: the numbers are dropping and it is an "easy win". I think she is persuaded that the gutter press will be more impressed by a larger fall in a bigger total number, than in a smaller fall in a smaller total. And she may well be correct in this.

www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/04/14/alt-right-ringleader-mike-cernovich-threatens-to-drop-motherlode-if-steve-bannon-is-ousted.html?asdd
Alt-Right Ringleader Mike Cernovich Threatens to Drop ‘Motherlode’ If Steve Bannon Is Ousted

Who would like some popcorn for this? Sounds rather like blackmail. Sounds like it supports dodgy dossiers. It could all be made up too but considering who is saying it - the 'trusted sources' of the right - it doesn't matter if right wing followers believe it.

Of course this is precisely why nothing will happen and Bannon will stay put. Just lurking out of public sight whilst he whispers in ears.

Still. Kind of amazing to see this being said at all. The President is supposed to above situations like this arising at all in the interests of national security.

Meanwhile in Frances things are going well for Le Pen
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-election-marine-le-pen-judges-ask-parliamentary-immunity-lifted-misuse-eu-funds-a7684431.html
French election: Judges ask for Marine Le Pen's parliamentary immunity to be lifted in fresh setback for FN leader

And in North Korea there is a parade with weapons and tanks and things. (Remember when Donald wanted to do this for his inaugaration.) Air China suspended all flights from Beijing to the NK capital from Monday due to poor sales.

www.economist.com/news/leaders/21720590-recep-tayyip-erdogan-carrying-out-harshest-crackdown-decades-west-must-not-abandon?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/turkeysreferendumturkeyisslidingintodictatorship
Turkey is sliding into dictatorship

Turkey is having a referendum over whether to abandon their parliamentary system for an executive presidency. It seems like a formality really. I guess this is the type of referendum Farage was hoping for the other day when he talked about wanting more.
I shall say nothing of the 'great' repeal act as tempting as it is. Nor will I wonder about the possible impact on the course of events that the EU ref had.

Oh course here in dear old Blighty we have newspapers complaining about too many migrants having jobs and too many migrants not having jobs. (With no qualification about these might be women supported by partners and having children i might add). No EU citizens will be asked to leave. They will just have their residency rights removed even if they are 12 years old and born in the UK. 200 of them work for Parliament itself
m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_58efd42de4b0bb9638e27741
New Calls To Protect EU Citizens’ Brexit Rights As Number Of Europeans Working In Parliament Revealed

Meanwhile where I live, Local Katie Hopkins is complaining about a proposed housing development of 12 houses on a site that is currently derelict. Her family are building houses on the site of a building that was mysteriously burnt down after they lobbied the local councillor to push it through planning. So far no one has pointed this out.

2017 the Twilight World were all the fears expressed in 2016 come true.

I woke up this morning thinking 'still here'.

Happy Easter folks. Hope you are all celebrating the Christian faith this weekend because it's very important to British traditions and teaches us all to love each other regardless. I'm sorry about my cynicism. It's the hypocrisy that pisses me off. We seem to have lots of priests and Levites whilst the Good Samaritans are getting a bloody good kicking right now. I'm just wondering if we'll get to Christmas at this rate.

I'm not in a good mood.

I want my chocolate eggs TODAY!

Re EU students.
I thought it telling at passport control that EU citizens go one way except if they are students. The signage is that ALL international students (their caps not mine) have to go through the other channel.

Why is that? Why isn't this in all the anti immigrants articles

www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21720626-striking-trade-deals-quickly-bonus-what-really-matters-quality?fsrc=scn/tw/te/rfd/pe
L-EFTA behind
The EFTA countries show how hard Brexit will be for Britain

Striking trade deals quickly is a bonus but what really matters is the quality of the deal

Important piece about the reality of being outside the customs union. Being the Commonwealth isn't going to make it easier for the UK.

Misti I agree the impact of including or excluding them is not nil. However given that the net figure is not nil, the assumption has to be that the net figure should be reclassified as staying "beyond the duration of their studies" and so the impact of accepting the Lords' amendment is nil.

I also agree with you that TM would want to include them if the net becomes negative.

Big marches in US today demanding Trump's tax expenses.
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/14/politics/trump-tax-day-march-protests/
If this place wasn't such a depleted, medieval vassal state, marches against election corruption might be a laugh.

US marches organised on social media again.

"Fees for non-EU students are about £18k so it is clear they make a contribution above home students. This is not the case for EU students currently benefiting from local UK rates of £9k"

Non-EU students do generate some income for UK universities, but most of them are not very good. For instance, the best Chinese students either stay in China (where local universities are increasingly excellent) or go to the US. We tend to get those who are average to poor academically, but come from wealthy and well-connected families. EU students, on the other hand, are our best students, we get the cream of all European students, and many of them stay on to become our best PhD students and postdocs (whereas the best British undergraduates often go to the US for their PhDs where they get very generous scholarships). It would be a disaster on many levels to lose our EU students, as the government have privately admitted many times. The number of EU applications was down 10-20% (depending on the subject) in the last admissions round at Cambridge, despite this being for admission before Brexit, and a guarantee from the university that their fees will stay at the UK level for the duration of their course. This is a crisis for us, and for local start-ups, especially in the life sciences and IT, who rely on these students / graduates. The fees are a minor thing compared to the loss of quality students and staff, and the grant and external funding they bring in.

EU citizens go one way except if they are students.

How would they tell? I doubt that most students do this.

howabout net immigration wll never be negative, but I think it almost certain that it will fall, and that lower student numbers will be a big chunk of the decline. So May is both technically correct to wish them to remain in the numbers, and she probably has a strong political motive too. The Lords amendment is shutting the door after the horse has bolted anyway. My daughter and some of her friends sometimes used to talk about going to the UK to study, they don't any more, and DD is absolutely dead set against it (I absolutely don't santion this view, because I visit the UK regularly, but DD doesn't - and she now thinks that racism is a huge issue in England, and that she would encounter discrimination as a French citizen in the UK).

Turkey is sliding into dictatorship
I can't imagine the terror that so many in Turkey must be going through, but have a good idea.

"Coup, my arse", as Jim Royle would have said. Coups don't normally have live TV feeds ready to go.

After November 9th Obama said:
"You don't start worrying about apocalypse." Feels like it today

This is a crisis for us, and for local start-ups, especially in the life sciences and IT, who rely on these students / graduates. The fees are a minor thing compared to the loss of quality students and staff, and the grant and external funding they bring in.

It's also a crisis for industry, which faces a double whammy: they will find it harder to recruit in the EU, and the quality of graduates from UK universities will fall.

I just asked my daughter if she would ever consider studying in the UK (she is the top all-rounder in her year 12- equivalent cohort and has talked about applying for Cambridge in the past) and got short shrift: "don't be stupid" :-/

More project reality

www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/15/average-uk-house-price-falls-1000-since-start-of-year

you were warned..

www.cityam.com/255606/happen-house-prices-2017

Misti I have two British graduates who also are looking to work overseas, and many of their peers have either already gone or are looking to go (though those in the US are wondering if they jumped out of the frying pan into the fire). If the UK does not have attraction for its own young citizens, how is it going to attract the best from the rest of the world?

In business many of the brightest and most talented I have worked with are from the Indian subcontinent, who came here as students and then were recruited in the graduate recruitment round. That is especially true in banking and financial services. Applications to U.K. Universities from India have halved. It isn't just because of racism either, it is also because Indian students know that non EU overseas students have suffered harassment and insecurity as a result of May's Home Office making them a soft target for reducing the immigration figures. The expulsion of students here with valid language qualifications was widely publicised, and there are lengthy discussions in the Student Room and other forums about the negative experiences of the Home Office of overseas students. Any student considering a U.K. University only needs to go on to their own Facebook pages and other forums for countless tales. I will post an example below. That is not going to change, we know that once May gets the bit between the teeth she carries on regardless and the negative impact on business is not going to make her change track now any more than it did in the past.

For those who don't know, the rally was part of a broader movement to support migrants in the post-Brexit era. International students are under constant government surveillance. Attendance sheets you sign are sent to the Home Office. For internationals, not attending class or failing a course can be grounds for deportation. This is against what education is about, which is the freedom to fail.
^First of all, I want to thank everyone who did show up and listen even for a minute. You have no idea how encouraging it is just to be heard.
But most people I approached either ignored me or actively tried to convince me that the protests were useless. This included a student who said, "What's the point of this? Do you think they'll listen?" (which, girl, I don't think you understand the concept of protests?) Another student asked me where I was from, and when I told him he laughed saying, "Oh so YOU're gonna be out!" (meaning I'll be kicked out once my visa expires, which I guess is funny?) And then a guy who simply said, "But this doesn't affect British students." (troll?)^
The international students issue is complicated because not even all international students care. Many come from very privileged backgrounds (how else could you pay international fees?). Some are EU so these issues don't affect them directly (yet). But these kinds of policies place disproportionate pressure on students who can't take their presence in the UK for granted, who know this is their one shot to advance, and, instead of being supported by their fellow students and institutions, are treated as suspects. And those students, who can't afford to fail, are also least able to speak out and risk their own safety and right to stay.

Interesting missmoon. Why do EU students not migrate to the US for further study in the same way as non-EU and British students do?

And just to provide some context this is a student at a London universitiy where courses tend to be exam orientated and, especially in STEM subjects it is not unusual for bright students to have to retake an exam or even a whole module. It is stressful enough without the additional consequence being that you get deported.

ron I have a great deal of sympathy for that student, and as they note, the fact that EU students are not in their position has made it worse. For context, when I started work in London I had an exam within the first 6 months. If I had failed it I would have been sacked and being unable to pay my rent would have had to return home to Scotland. I also do not have rich parents.

Did you read Steve Hilton's interview in the Guardian today? It makes for quite an enjoyable read towards the end. Oh but what an utter, utter, bellend. What a lack of self awareness. Another Brexiter off to try and sup from Fox's cup.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/steve-hilton-im-rich-but-i-understand-the-frustrations-people-have

Yep, a completely shameless opportunist. Total tool.

That article ends so brilliantly that I am going to quote it, because it shows up the whole "brexit as a reaction to the liberal elite" argument for the pile of stinky bovine manure that it is.

So, I try once more: can he say that he and his family deserve their wealth? “I think that we’re maybe overstating the degree to which we’re in that economic category. We’re genuinely not.”

Hilton lives in the second most expensive zip code in America, in a house that cost $20.5m. Whetstone [his partner] is thought to have earned in excess of $50m at Google. He’s quite right, there’s an empathy problem among the rich. I’m just amazed he thinks he’s miraculously unafflicted by it.

Brexit as a reaction to the liberal elite ?

Ha, Brexit was the illiberal elite convincing the home counties middle classes and the poor to vote against their own interests. The whole liberal metropolitan elite thing was nicked very skillfully from Trump, whose done the same thing.

www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/15/average-uk-house-price-falls-1000-since-start-of-year

Thanks for this Grimey.

There are obviously people who want a house price crash, but unfortunately it won't work out for them like they think it will. In much of the country prices haven't gone back up since they fell in 2008, in London they only stagnated in this time, they didn't fall.

Yes that Steve Hilton interview was beyond dismal.

I've been trying to figure out for months why this rash of millionaires and billionaires are leading and backing these supposedly populist revolutions now.

Reading Hilton squirming about his wealth while declaring his conversion to populism, it occurred to me that the super-rich must have known for a little while now that with the ever widening levels of inequality and the effects of the financial crisis not yet fully played out, a revolution is coming one way or another, and they might reasonably be expected to be first up against the wall.

So it seems to me that all this may be a quite calculated pre-emptive channelling of the anger that is building, diverting the tide away from themselves and towards any convenient target further down the chain: the EU, immigrants, Islam, Mexicans, liberals, intellectuals. And it's working.

Very insightful Kaija, thanks. Think you might be right.