Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

More from the article I linked to :

One source said the decision of Michel Barnier, the EU chief negotiator, to be as open as possible about the talks is in part an attempt to educate the UK public about the dangers of not reaching a deal, and leaving the bloc on what is known as World Trade Organisation terms.

“It is not possible to overestimate the threat the UK press poses to reaching a deal. We have to counteract that by being open,” said one diplomat.

Hoisted by her own petard.

One last link - WTF

Front page of Daily Mail but not DM link

I've been thinking what Mays chant will be. Maggie had 'Maggie Thatcher the milk snatcher'

How about
'May May will make us Pay? Or
'Thersea May the Brexit Cray'?

Answers on a postcard please. The best answer will recieve an invitiation to watch the brexit car crash as we all will

This needs to follow her everywhere

FT: UK to remain in some EU regulations after Brexit

"As the prime minister prepares to officially fire the starting gun on Brexit talks on Wednesday, officials close to the negotiations say that the UK would have little choice but to take part in some EU agencies after 2019, the scheduled date for Britain’s departure from the bloc, despite pressure from some Brexiters for a clean break.

“We simply don’t have the expertise in some areas and wouldn’t have the time to start up new agencies from scratch”

"They argue that the continued participation in EU agencies would at the very least be required for a transition period, increasing the pressure on Mrs May to secure a negotiated deal.

The CBI has estimated that Britain may need to set up domestic versions of as many as 34 EU regulatory agencies, covering areas such as agriculture, energy, transport and communications"

https://www.ft.com/content/64d30780-10b5-11e7-b030-768954394623

That's where the 350 million quid will be going, all the extra civil servants & agencies to recreate the EU regulatory structure in the UK.
No money left for the NHS

oops, UK to remain in some agencies after Brexit

Reminder from the FT article about something to really scare us

"As well as repealing the 1972 European Communities Act, which took Britain into the bloc, the Bill will seek to give ministers sweeping powers to change the law with limited parliamentary scrutiny.^^
Ministers intend to use these powers to translate EU laws and rules into the domestic context, paving the way for Brexit. "

When an Opposition rolls over to a hard right govt and media, that is what happens

if the UK tries to use Ireland as a human shield then I can see Irish politicians across the entire political spectrum doing everything in their power to further the cause of a reunited Ireland, certainly with the backing of Irish America and possibly with the blessing of the EU.

I think the same - I could see there being a big push for it to happen in 2022 for symbolic reasons, being the centenary of the establishment of the Irish Free State.

Pmsl. Sorry it just makes me laugh that one of the arguements. Still. Is tge reduction in regulations

How. Can. You. Trade. With. The. EU. If. You. Don't. Follow. Their. Regulations.

I have said it slowly as these politicians don't seem to get it.

That has been obvious from the start. What planet are these people on. What happens when the emporers new clothes are discovered to have been a lie?

The legs article....top trolling from Sarah Vine. Anyone who can marry Michael Gove has no shame.

Also, Nicola needs no bigging up to know that as well as her legs, she's better than May on many levels including all political and integrity-based ones

John Prescott, who isn't her biggest fan, is suggesting the Mail are stringing Sarah Vine up a little for that. Not that I want to defend her in the slightest.

From lalas Guardian article:

"Civil servants have acknowledged that
the number of goods that would need to be tracked would rise from 17m to 350m a year."

How can the govt think that capability can rise so quickly ?

I was going to ask how the public can believe that, but of course the hard right have told them that Brexit is just "simples,"
which most will continue to believe unless / until their personal finances are hit.

Is there time to start specialising as an EU regulation lawyer? It's win win for them. Kerching!

What the betting some of the nutty brigade (david Davis et al) are about to hand their mates some negotiating contracts. I hope the journos are keeping an eye on this

Times letter from 35 Oxford college heads

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-oxford-university-eu-citizens-college-heads-leaders-35-letter-the-times-bill-lords-may-a7626451.html

“Our EU colleagues are not reassured by a government which tells them that
deportation is not going to happen but declines to convert that assurance into law;
some are worried, some are desperate, some are already making plans to leave.”

“Many of our staff don’t know whether absences abroad on research contracts will count against them.
Others do not know, however longstanding their work and residence, whether their children will be able to remain in the UK.”

poorboy Brexit means Brexit means "Loot ! Loot !"
(If you have the right friends / make the right party donations)

That's ok Big we don't need those eminent academics taking our jobs...we can just replace them.

Oh wait...There's no one to replace them. Oh and our uk born best brains are buggering off with them to study abroad? It's ok who needs edjuction

I've been told on Twitter that the Scottish edition of the Mail is marginally less offensive, but instead is busier insulting Nicola Sturgeon.

www.ft.com/content/b1a57b44-12ed-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c#comments
Barnier hard line inflames Tory divisions over post-EU path

EU Brexit negotiator lays down a choice that cuts to heart of Conservatives’ ideology

Good article on how Tory ministers are talking up no deal and how this screws hard working families May wants to please.

Jason Spacey @JasonSpacey
I bought a Brexit calculator the other day. Nothing adds up but it's excellent at taking away and division.

channelling H.L.Mencken

Ah, Baltimores finest ! However, as Gus, the newspaper editor said in "The Wire".

Fuck Mencken.

(There was a HLM quote on the wall of the newspaper office).

The legs article....top trolling from Sarah Vine. Anyone who can marry Michael Gove has no shame.

As Stewart Lee said last night about increasingly disgusting revelations about Tories ..

In 2016 we learned that David Cameron had put his penis in a dead pigs mouth. Then, not to be outdone, we learned that Michael Gove had put his penis in a Daily Mail reporter. Following that we heard that Boris Johnson had put himself into the Foreign Secretary ....

Bit of light relief.

Faisal Islam‏*@faisalislam*
"The Brexit Collection" is the LSE/ British Library collection of referendum leaflets - some extraordinary ones:
digital.library.lse.ac.uk/collections/brexit/2016
... this #euref leaflet suggests the EU Council building was based on the Tower of Babel - I was shown one arguing EU was papal conspiracy
... on the other side is this leaflet: "the word "leave" is directed at you", which is aimed at migrants...
just to be clear - this was a remain leaflet, though not an official one...
... this is the one I think Vote Leave left in NHS waiting rooms with NHS logo, that so infuriated The Health Sel comm chair Wollaston

The Gallery of Leaflets is certainly interesting to reflect on...

order-order.com/2017/03/28/tory-mps-meeting-to-discuss-yellow-peril/
Tory MPs Meeting to Discuss Yellow Peril

Guido Fawkes article about Conservative fears over resurgent Lib Dems. Must be serious if they are having a meeting like this.

It's not just Leave voting Tory MPs in Remain constituencies who need be concerned, it's also those Remain voting MPs in Remain constituencies, who are turncoats in the best Theresa May fashion - yes, this is people like you Nicola Blackwood in Oxford West and Abingdon.

I don't think it will translate to General Election seats lost yet, but in the local elections in May, I think a few Tories, who have occupied council seats for so long, that they have stuck to the chairs, will find suddenly, that they have more time to spend with their families or tending their gardens.

RTB some of those leaflets are

It seems more and more people are actually realising how bleak the future is. I'm wondering when these people will finally snap iyswim