Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

pretty , Yes, but she is just not dickied up. She looked well in her speech at downing street after the murders in Westminster. (that sounds terrible)

There is no pally eye contact or shaking of hands in that picture. 30 minutes at a neutral hotel room. The smiles look fake and strained. Actually Sturgeon looks like she can't be bothered to pretend.

Things have become strained all round, haven't they?

Revoking A50

Reading various expert opinions, it seems revocation is possible but NOT certain, provided Brexit has not actually happened
(after Brexit, the UK would have to reapply to join)

Unlikely that the UK could insist unilaterally it stays.
It is likely to require agreement of the E27, but it's unclear whether that agreement must be unanimous, or just QMV (qualified majority vote)
However, highly unlikely that they wouldn't agree, unless May and the 3 Dunces have been too outrageously destructive and agressive.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRSBRI%282016%295779711_EN.pdf

Most constitutional lawyers plus the French Attorney General (or equiv title) think that A50 can be revoked right up until the UK actually leaves the EU.

The Lisbon treaty is an enabling treaty and unless something is expressly excluded, then it can be agreed.

If the UK government changes its mind and wants to Remain, it is likely the EU would want to keep its 2nd largest member.

Also, ex-LD MEP Andrew Duff:
http://verfassungsblog.de/brexit-article-50-duff/

Under section 50(3):
“That Article 50 is silent on the matter of revocation does not mean that a change of direction would be illegal under EU law (as long as the CJEU were convinced that the switch was constitutional).

The EU is well practised in the art of the stopped clock.

Given the collateral damage done to the remaining EU by Brexit, a notification that London had changed its mind would be met with very great, if somewhat exasperated relief.”

The govt is going for a hard brexit because anything else is leaving in name only, not in effect.

Norway are not in the EU. Definitive statement.

Not sure if this has been posted before. Some joining of the dots.

Sweet Brexit: what sugar tells us about Britain’s future outside the EU

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/27/brexit-sugar-beet-cane-tate-lyle-british-sugar

Otto English‏ @Otto_English 2h2 hours ago

Many key Brexiteers, Davis, Hamilton, Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore are linked by sugar. Glad this is belated news

Otto English‏ @Otto_English Mar 2

Otto English Retweeted Tate & Lyle Sugars
Arron Banks' dad has OBE for services to sugar. David Davis worked for Tate and Lyle. Belize is massive exporter of the stuff but you know

The referendum asked about Brexit, just yes or no.
Brexit hardness was not mentioned on the voting slip

Leave leaders assured us that the Uk would retain its current trade and financial services with the EU.
This is only possible - and still difficult - with an EEA / EFTA Brexit, i.e. soft

It does seem petty that TM insisted on meeting NS in a hotel which presumably cost rather than the SG offices which are literally just along the road from the hotel (and just as easily if not easier accessed from either of the meetings she had beforehand (the extra secure/terrorist specialist police station in Govan or the DFID in East Kilbride)

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/stv.tv/amp/1384197-sturgeon-may-failed-to-offer-scotland-new-powers/

If she was trying to persuade a few Greens or anti-EU SNP MSPs not to vote for the Section 30 Referendum motion tomorrow, then she didn't do a very good job She might even have convinced a few Labour MSPs to vote for the motion but I doubt it as none of them have any backbone

David Davies, HoC 2016:

"What we have come up with ... is the idea of a comprehensive free trade agreement and a comprehensive customs agreement that will deliver the exact same benefits as we have, but also enable my right honourable friend the secretary of state for international trade to go and form trade deals with the rest of the world"

Sorry, this is in response to Red from a couple of pages back: even if the UK ceases to be a member of the WTO, the rest of the EU will be a member, and so won't be able to agree to "unilateral continuity" even if they wanted to, because they could be sued by other WTO countries unless they dropped all tariffs for all products to zero for all other WTO countries (there's no way they will/ can do this).

You can only laugh at that, BigChoc. It is just so unreasonable. It is like they were taking narcotics while thrashing out scenarios. Mind you, if you were dependent on Liam Fox for the country's trade relationships, I'd imagine any fantasy that offered an alternative would be more appealing.

Well, he said it. So now he has to deliver it. And if not, explain exactly why it wasn't attainable.

BigChoc I understand hardness was not on the ballot paper - but the only exit that makes a difference is hard. Any EEA/EFTA deal ties us into the EU, prevents external trade deals and any influence on common standards we have to adhere to. it is either hard or stay, a 'middle' way is the worst of both worlds.

I attended the March for Europe in Edinburgh, a peaceful positive March. The police were fantastic and there was no trouble that I saw .... until I was walking home - a group of about 30 Nazi saluting swastika tattooed men were protesting on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh .... the actual Royal Mile!! - the police had a big job on their hand and arrests were made. I am heartbroken this whole thing is such a monumental mess. We're facing two more years of nastiness on so many sides when we should be getting on with building our economy, building more houses, creating better schools. I watched QT tonight ... I have avoided it for a while as I just couldn't take much more of Nigel Farage ... I think I will avoid it again. The UK is now so divided.

carol The promises during the campaign were that trade, business, financial services would continue as before.

It is a reasonable assumption that most people did not vote to become poorer
So, if a hard Brexit makes this more likely, we should go for a soft Brexit.
Or at least be very sure that the public agree to becoming poorer as the price for a hard Brexit

Sometimes, it's not possible to fulfill all wishes, so one has to prioritise.

T May instructs the "lesser countries" of the UK that Brexit means Brexit:

It may be interesting to see with whom May is smooching wrt trading links. She obviously is already able to trade with quite a few, despite everyone being told the EU is holding the UK back. Certainly the UK supplies weapons (and war materials, for want of a better word) to the middle east already.

On her last visit to Turkey, "May also agreed a £100 million defence deal with Turkey, in order to help Turkey develop their own fighter "

She went to Bahrain, in December, where she met with a plethora of leaders from the gulf states. I presume the trade and investment talks she had with them aren't all about good, clean stuff. Armaments.

Prime minister of Qatar is visiting with May at Downing Street.

cmec.org.uk/depth/news-analysis/theresa-may-travelling-bahrain-gcc-summit

Just thinking jam and tea sales aren't what May will be trying to increase. It is kind of a depressing industry.

tava63, I sometimes don't bother with Daily Politics or Marr if the usual suspects are on. It is particularly to be avoided when one of the UKIP MEP's are on. It seems to have become Pravda. And you know there is no truth in Pravda.

Random thoughts - had to get up in the night.

Slovenia? Slovakia? Reminds me of recent history a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. ... But Mayhem is not a student of history, that much appears clear.

Ireland: has done well out of the EU. A Dublin friend told me that a) they think we are mad and b) a local mushroom growing firm has already gone bankrupt as a result.

Selling armaments - the nasty EU hasn't stopped us selling them to whichever vile dictatorship wants to use them on its own citizens or its neighbours.

I went on the March. It was lovely to be on one not infested with Socialist worker* 'friends' & placards.

(*Said with fake northern or west country accent, depending on the upper class person trying to get down with the plebs, if they are still the same as the ones in my university days, a long time ago.)

CardinalSin
LOVE that t-shirt

LurkingHusband Mon 27-Mar-17 14:47:46
Of course it's worth noting now (just in case some Tory numpty pretends it's some sort of revolutionary suggestion in future) that one thing trade deals can do, is enforce political values.

I suspect that before long, what remains of the political entity formerly known as the UK will become in internal policy (as well as external relations as is the case now) the 51st State of the USA.

Cailleach, I wonder - if the UK tries to use Ireland as a human shield then I can see Irish politicians across the entire political spectrum doing everything in their power to further the cause of a reunited Ireland, certainly with the backing of Irish America and possibly with the blessing of the EU.

The Telegraph is advising it's well-heeled readers to invest in Europe, not the UK. Quelle surprise.

The Telegraph is advising it's well-heeled readers to invest in Europe, not the UK. Quelle surprise.

Outrageous!

Talking Britain Down! Not Believing! Treason! Throw them in the Tower!

Oh hang on, they support Brexit... that means they can do no wrong, carry on.

Peregrina yes it was lovely that the sw stayed at hone. If only they found more topics in reality to avoid.

Carol this is what amazes me. Where there is a void everyone creates their own version of what something is. Hard brexiters are no more correct than remainers on this.

Where there is a void it is the responsibility of politicians to step in and create order to prevent further division. May hasn't done this. Instead divide and rule has been the order of the day

Ireland

The Uk govt, the Tory patty and media seem to think they could implicitly threaten and bully the much much weaker RoI, even into leaving alongside the UK ....

Have they forgotten that the RoI - and Sinn Fein - have the very powerful Irish-American lobby on tap ?

Are they sufficiently deluded by the "Special Relationship" to assume that the USA would choose the UK over Ireland ?
Bad mistake.
The Special Relationship with Ireland is far more important politically to any POTUS or US politician.

Or do the UK govt really think Trump will place the UK above his own political interests ?
Trump may have even less loyalty (i.e. none) to the UK than any previous POTUS - afaik no other POTUS ever attended a Sinn Fein IRA fundraising dinner while the IRA was bombing London

I remember how US politicians acted throughout the Troubles.
They favoured the RoI and kept the UK at arms length
The RoI govt employed a highly effective lobbying firm to work on Congress and POTUS
The Irish American lobby also mobilised considerable public hostility against the UK and in favour of a United Ireland.
The IRA and Sinn Fein are romantic heroes to many Irish Americans, not terrorists.

I expect the US will bring the hammer down on the UK, if the RoI govt warns them that a UK special deal would harm Ireland or risk igniting the Troubles.
The RoI can bring in its hulking big brother to smash the bully into the ground.

Protecting Ireland against its bullying ex-master is one of the few issues that would unite most Republican and Democrat politicians.

TM backing away from a threat to leave with no deal!

In private, say diplomats, UK officials recognise the “havoc” that this would cause, and have come to regret the threat to turn the UK into a deregulated offshore tax haven, implicit in Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech in January, when she warned that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal”.

They claim the conciliatory signals from UK government officials are an attempt to lower the temperature asthe prime minister prepares to send the UK’s article 50 letter on Wednesday, triggering the start of two years of intensive Brexit negotiations.

Cailleach - I have long thought that the UK would use the RoI as a bargaining chip when it comes to getting a good deal: don't give us a decent deal, Ireland gets it in the neck . I might just be able to accept England voting for its own political and economic destruction but dragging Scotland, Gibraltar, NI and RoI down with us is unforgivable.