Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

For the sake of my blood pressure I'm avoiding the QT Brexit special. I read today on Twitter (so not sure it's absolutely true) that a UKIP representative has appeared on a quarter of all QT episodes since 2010. Bet the Greens haven't appeared nearly as many times.

Cailleach, much as it pains me to say it, Davis is right and you are wrong.

And I'm still incensed with Melanie Philips since she recently said that Ireland only had a tenuous claim to nationhood. I mean obviously she always incenses me, but you know what I mean!

Imjustapoorboy that is exactly her, well put

It doesn't matter how you say it, peugeots are crap cars with a reputation for setting on fire.

Mitzy if that is right it bears a few questions

• why has UKIP being represented so much when it represent such a small part of the population
• why have other political parties, such as the Greens, NOT been represented equally
• what has been the effect of hearing the UKIP crap again and again on the population and it's vote, knowing that when you hear something often enough it becomes normal (even when it's a lot of rubbish)

The UK actually needs some sort of regulation to ensure a fair representation of ALL the different political parties, including the LD, the Greens etc...

Hey RTB, don't say anything bad about french cars

RedToothBrush - I think you are right and that the Brexiteers are gambling on unilateral continuity being waved through by the EU. This strategy reminds me scarily of the arrogance that lead to the Lehman banking crisis - the bank simply believed itself to be "too big to fail".

I don't think the EU will bail us out. I think we will face a very harsh reality should we try to take that route.

The only possible silver lining is that it could then still be open to us (hopefully!) to remain a part of the Single Market, subject of course to EU rules on freedom of movement and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. This would mean a horrific climbdown for the government, but this happened in Greece. I suspect that if we pursue this route, we will end up as the next Greece, being forced to eat humble pie and losing our influence.

3 remain are sitting MP's. Only Davis to answer for gov't. Phillips and Evans not part of the carrying out of Brexit. Just punters, no facts or details needed when espousing personal points of view. Salmond said Davis acceptable face of the cabinet. Faints.

It is only UK who is saying people will maybe have to go and makes private health insurance a requirement retrospectively.

Cecile, how do you mean Davis is right. I know he is Right, but ...how?

Peut etre is not pronounced purrt etre.

Re. unilateral continuity, I remember this being discussed, but it isn't just unlikely, it's actually impossible. It doesn't comply with WTO rules, unless it's part of a comprehensive free trade agreement (or both the UK and the EU would have to offer the same terms to everyone else). This has been discussed extensively on Richard North's blog and by many others. Surely a govt lawyer must have explained this to govt ministers?

Phillips is so patronising about the Scots. If people are just getting on the panel to give their opinion, then Dimbleby should issue a lottery for members of the public. Phillips and Evans have no more a public mandate than any other random person off the street. Evans not a councillor any more.

Considering the implications for N. Ireland and the EU border, they are not even mentioning it.

Cailleach the 'peu' in Peugeot and peut-être is pronounced close to the English purr (without a rotic r) but short, not like the English pew.

Sound file here www.french-linguistics.co.uk/how-to-pronounce/peu-1305eb11651c2e73/

They think that the day after the 2 year period has end, if we go off the cliff, the EU would have other option but to agree to unilateral continuity for their own interests.

They have already misjudged the 27 - the Brexiters didn't expect the unity they showed. May thought that she could pick a few off. I can't see their (27) opinions softening.

David said purr. I'm flogging this, I know. Un petit peu. Thanks for that patty. it is still not purr .

Davis saying access to single doesn't mean membership. Said they'll consider paying. What a load of rubbish. Everyone has access to the single market if they pay and comply. Not free if not a member.

I'm going to have a slap up dinner in the Ritz tomorrow. I'll consider paying.

And there we have it. ' Remainers trying to overturn the will of the British people' Melanie Phillips.

Re. unilateral continuity, I remember this being discussed, but it isn't just unlikely, it's actually impossible. It doesn't comply with WTO rules, unless it's part of a comprehensive free trade agreement (or both the UK and the EU would have to offer the same terms to everyone else). This has been discussed extensively on Richard North's blog and by many others. Surely a govt lawyer must have explained this to govt ministers?

Missmoon a) the government have struggled to understand WTO rules with numerous ministers including Davis himself, suggesting proposals which are not compatible with what is allowed and b) as discussed on these threads many times, Theresa May's grasp of law, how can I put this.... Crap? She doesn't like listening to those damn lawyers.

Your argument in terms of dismissing the idea that the government are pursuing it, is fundamentally flawed for this reason.

I actually thought that part of the point of unilateral continuity was to break the existing EU rules. Plus we have yet to establish ourselves as WTO members. We can't break WTO rules if we aren't a member can we?

We have long since abandoned the idea that this government will act rationally, and they themselves seem to prefer 'feelings of sovereignty' rather than logic and understanding of the relationship between sovereignty and trade.

Last time I check I was 'one of the people'. It's funny but when 'the people' talk out and campaign to overturn against acts by government elected by 'the people' we aren't accused of this. So why the clap trap?

Lazy talk by lazy people.

I had to laugh at Evans. To paraphrase, "there was a referendum to stay in and now we've had a referendum to come out. We can't really have any more referendums".

Why not Suzanne? Is that the law of the universe? Two referenda on any particular issue. You were going to scream for a third if it was 52/48 to stay, or at least Farage is on record as saying it was unfinished business .

Not advocating one by the way. Just saying...

@bbclaurak: No 10 disputes claim May accepted Scot gov timetable for Brexit clarity - 'for the birds' to think all done in 18 months, source says

Suggests that the WM Government really is going for the "Over the Cliff Edge" strategy Should we call it the Lemming Strategy? Lemmings that eat everlasting cake and are friendly with unicorns

Ah bless May. Hope she's started meditation sessions The sleepless nights she will get over the break up of the union will be unbearable

Theresa you will be judged and it will be remembered.

Sturgeon only needs May's approval for a binding referendum.

Scotland can quite simply call an advisory referendum whenever it wants. As we well know, the result is then DEMOCRACY, and parliament must not stand in its way.

I would be sad to see Scotland leave the UK, but I don't see how May can block it, without delegitimising Brexit.

Personally, I will be surprised if the UK survives. I think Ireland will go first, then Scotland, and Spain will claim joint sovereignty over Gibraltar.
Starting in about 5 years time. (Of course, I may not be on MN in five years, so won't be around for anyone to tell me that I was wrong.)

Then things like the UK's permanent seat at the Security council will bite the dust.