Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

we could probably have a long heart-to-heart with North Korea about how nobody understands us (although scared that this might be the future).

I don't know, Kate, I completely sympathise with you but remain hopeful that this whole wretched business will implode around us before we crash out of the EU. I do think more and more people are waking up to the vanishingly small benefits that our "freedom" will bring. Jolyon Maugham's case is due to hit the Irish courts in June and, ultimately, that is likely to show that A50 can be revoked. Once negotiations start - and the grandstanding is shown up for what it is - there will be a way back if we have the sense to follow it.

This looks interesting:

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-europe-president-donald-trump-make-america-great-again-easy-solutions-a7650621.html

"Advocates of Britain leaving the EU, President Trump, France’s National Front and others have skilfully exploited these elements, triangulating to take advantage of differences between groups for political advantage.

On economic matters, they play on the fears of the disenfranchised and those whose livelihoods are threatened. On immigration, they have sought to galvanise coalitions of vulnerable workers and cultural conservatives under the guise of patriotism. On cultural matters, they appeal to the social conservatism of groups with different educational, ethnic and religious beliefs.

The essential political ingredient today is not change, as is commonly believed, but nostalgia. Non-traditional candidates promise to restore a golden age of prosperity, security and largely homogenous societies with shared values, fondly if inaccurately remembered by parts of the electorate."

here is to hope lala

I suspect people will increasingly support brexit, Remainers included, as we will all fall prey to the divisive us and them rhetoric. also as people think the decision to leave has been taken (ohhhh so democratically) we better get on with things because we will suffer more if we don't get behind it whatever it is. England used to be pretty drab until the 90s. I do think that the EU has brought a lot of colour and wonderfulness to this country. Oh well, back to a Greggs lifestyle then.

I really don't think Turkey will ever get into the EU anytime soon. It is going backwards on so many issues.

Interestingly, it was one of the first ports of call for May. Maybe that was to do with arm sales or something. Or she was making up over the way it was used as a bogeyman in the referendum.

MoFD - I believe that A50 is revokable. If I didn't think that, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

Kate - I agree the government could try to go for a Them and Us rhetoric during negotiations (let's face it, they're already doing it) but I'm hoping that, as the deal they manage to negotiate looks increasingly threadbare, people will prefer to stay in rather than risk everything for nothing.

Everyone is convinced that TM is following this path to appease the Tory right. So far it has worked because she has had so many cheerleaders in the press. Once the right-wing media begins to turn against her - and it will - she's fucked and so are her idiot plans.

Since the legislation didn't say anything about whether A 50 was revocable or not I suspect it will depend on the will of the other 27. Are they likely to accommodate us, if we go crawling to them, admitting we made a mistake?

We have had pockets of civil disorder in the past - there were the riots in Croydon a few years back at the time when the furniture department store got burnt down.

As for accepting it, I for one don't intend to unless it becomes inevitable, and I increasingly expect my children to leave the country and make lives for themselves elsewhere.

I do expect May to end up smashing up the UK. I give it ten years.

It will ultimately be the ECJ that decides if A50 is revocable or not. We will see. The rEU can see the benefits of having the UK within the fold (despite our stroppiness) so I don't think there would be huge political opposition to it being revoked. My one worry is that the UK is then asked to pay a bill to cover the cost of all the Brexit negotiations, it's something as relatively trivial as that that could stop us staying in.

Peregrina - the Croydon riots were part of the riots that grew out of the Tottenham riots in response to the shooting of Mark Duggan. They weren't an isolated incident. We're not very good at rioting generally.

Mother, it's better than crying.

I can't believe Wednesday is d day. It doesn't feel like there is anyone in control. I don't mean pulling the strings, but in responsible control with the best interests of people at heart.

You do get the feeling it could all turn ugly. If anyone, but anyone doesn't go along with a rabid game plan.

Just to have my usual rant. I turned on the tv Sunday. Nuttall on Screen, Carswell on two programmes, Theresa Villiers. Farage on Sophy Ridge. These people are never off the box. How? It is like blasted indoctrination.

Hmm, just see this from the Guardian:

Is triggering article 50 irrevocable?
No. Lord Kerr, Britain’s former ambassador to the EU who drafted article 50, said: “It is not irrevocable. You can change your mind while the process is going on.” When the justice secretary, Liz Truss, said triggering article 50 was “irrevocable” and a “one-way ticket”, Downing Street distanced itself from the claim.

I hope that means you get some sleep tonight, Mother .

Of much more import than the reversibility or otherwise of A50, is what happens to the UKs veto in EU matters while A50 is playing out - for example, could/would/should the EU start to revise their immigration policy ? After all, qui est-ce donne un cul de rats qu'est ce le UK pensant puis ?

To be fair, if the UK sees the error of its ways decides it wants back in to the EU, there isn't a queue per se. The only reason that Turkey isn't in yet is because it still hasn't met the criteria and is looking increasingly unlucky ever to do so ; plenty of other countries have applied since Turkey applied and have already been accepted into the EU. The back of the called "queue" was/is one of lies that was told to the Scots

So provided the UK doesn't leave it too long and raced too far to the bottom , it shouldn't take too long to realign our laws and regulations to comply. we wouldn't get our nice rebate and opt outs though

Isn't that another strand of Jolyon Maugham's court case? He states that until we leave the EU, we are part of the EU so we shouldn't be excluded from some meetings? It's all part of his belief that we haven't left until two years after A50, therefore if we change our mind before then, we can't be forced to leave.

Jolyon Maugham's plan is to sue Ireland for excluding Britain from European Council meetings – hoping to get a referral to the EU's highest court...

If it gets to Luxembourg, the court is likely to stop the Article 50 clock until it decides what to do, according to[Trinity College law professor] Mr O’Dell. That could happen whether the case reaches it towards the beginning of negotiations – or right at the end.

^^ to LH

In all fairness, the UK was the main cheerleader of EU expansion to admit more states. even ones which did not yet ready . The thinking was a wider EU would lead to a shallower EU. It will be interesting what happens now.

In all fairness, the UK was the main cheerleader of EU expansion to admit more states

not that you'd ever know that reading the Daily Mail.

I'm sure that TM and NS will have managed to discuss all the areas that have been ignored over the last 9 months needed to be covered (as mentioned in this article) during their whole hour long meeting

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39399390

I suspect more detail will have been provided in her lecture talk to the DTI beforehand. The key word in that is "never allowing our union to become looser". That will go down well

When we work together we're great. And by working together I mean when you do what I say.

The key word in that is "never allowing our union to become looser". That will go down well.

Well, that's one key word

The problem is the Tories genuinely can't help but use language like that. It's in their entire culture. "Is this a book you would like your wife or servants to read ?." wasn't a deliberate parody. It was a fascinating glimpse into the misogynistic, privileged and entitled mindset that Tories - and people who want to be Tories and people who think they are Tories have.

If it gets to Luxembourg, the court is likely to stop the Article 50 clock until it decides what to do, according to[Trinity College law professor] Mr O’Dell. That could happen whether the case reaches it towards the beginning of negotiations – or right at the end.

That would of course, give TM (or her successor) a 'Get out of jail free' card. But she is too blinkered to take it. 'No, I shall serve my time'.

Mrs Thatcher, to put it crudely, shat on people who would never vote for her in a million years. May is actually shitting on people who might support her.

"That would of course, give TM (or her successor) a 'Get out of jail free' card. But she is too blinkered to take it. 'No, I shall serve my time'."

Peregrina I think Jo Maugham's point is that parliament could take control and revoke A50 should things go very pear shaped.

What is happening? A vast number of local newspapers are all running polls asking whether people would still vote either remain or leave or not at all, knowing what they know now.

Most of the ones that I have seen are coming out for Remain.