Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

Is number 7:

All countries of the Empire are to willingly submit to being ruled by the UK

by any chance?
Makes about as much sense.

lala

Anyone think there might be risk of civil unrest over the next few weeks?

I mean, there's chasmic division throughout the UK, few signs of compromise in any sides and the temperature it rising (not literally of course ).

It would be good if there are any hints about that it's going to get better, but I see it more likely to get much worse in a short period of time

I don't think in the next few weeks, no. But when it becomes clear what a clusterfuck this whole process has become, how only a tiny proportion of people are going to get anything close to what they thought they were voting for (or, in Remainers' cases, nothing at all), it could get very nasty. I'd say summer 2018 will be when it will kick off. Unfortunately, we could be living in a police state by then .

Another book for the reading list: Who Runs The Economy?

www.palgrave.com/gb/book/9781137580184

Article in the Grauniad here www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/26/populism-is-the-result-of-global-economic-failure

Thank you lala, I wish I were as optimistic as you

Poundland You are not alone with your unease.

Why some Tories fear blood on the streets in a couple of years by Andrew Rawnsley

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/19/why-some-tories-fear-blood-on-the-streets

Just caught May saying this on the news:
And it says this: that when this great union of nations – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – sets its mind on something and works together with determination, we are an unstoppable force.
To be fair, I think that's probably true. But there's a key phrase in that she hasn't paid attention to or doesn't understand: works together

Well, at least we have the confidence that the government are experts in procuring deals:

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/27/uk-nuclear-decommissioning-debacle-costs-government-100m

Anyone think there might be risk of civil unrest over the next few weeks?

Yes. The government. Why do you think you've been slowly stripped of all your civil liberties over the past few years.

Everyone who went to the March on Saturday is aware they are now on the Met Polices "troublemakers" database ?

Why do you think La Rudd has been wittering on about encryption ? This government doesn't fear terrorists (I suspect they are rather grateful for the combined diversion/fall guy). This government fears it's own citizens.

US saying:

You know why there's a second amendment ? In case the government forgets the first"

Does Nuttall have any sense of Geography? Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty.

Good luck with that chum - 12 mile limit here we come. Norwary and Iceland can get away with 200 mile limits because they face vast tracts of open North Atlantic.

Does Nuttall have any sense of Geography?

Or irony ?

unicorns It is worth posting, as it so scary. We so do not need help from anyone.

Inquiry after NDA terminates nuclear contract – 27th March 2017

The Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy has been left red-faced after the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority was forced to terminate its contract with Cavendish Fluor Partnership for the management and decommissioning of 12 redundant Magnox sites (including two research sites).

These, together with the Calder Hall reactor on the Sellafield site, formed the UK’s first fleet of nuclear power stations. BEIS has now ordered an independent inquiry into the fiasco.

The NDA ran a £6.1bn tender process from April 2012 which resulted in a 14-year contract being awarded in September 2014 to the Cavendish Fluor Partnership – a joint venture between the British firm Cavendish Nuclear, a subsidiary of Babcock International, and the US company Fluor Inc. This decision was approved by the then Department for Energy and Climate Change and HM Treasury.

Work started on the Magnox estate on 1 September 2014. There then began a process to ensure that the scope of the contract assumed in the 2012 tender matched the actual status of the decommissioning to be done on each site, a process known as consolidation.

In a statement, energy minister Greg Clark said: “It has become clear through this consolidation process that there is a significant mismatch between the work that was specified in the contract as tendered in 2012 and awarded in 2014, and the work that actually needs to be done.

“The scale of the additional work is such that the Board considers that it would amount to a material change to the specification on which bidders were invited in 2012 to tender.

“In the light of this, the Board, headed by a new chair and chief executive, has concluded that it should exercise its right to terminate the contract on two years’ notice. The contract will be terminated in September 2019, after five years rather than its full term of 14 years. “

[[http://www.constructionmanagermagazine.com/news/nda-ter8minates-nuc7lear-deco6mmissioning-contract/]

www.constructionmanagermagazine.com/news/nda-ter8minates-nuc7lear-deco6mmissioning-contract/

"The EU’s chief negotiator has warned it will crush Theresa May’s hopes of a new trade deal if she slashes business taxes, workers’ rights and environmental standards."

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-trade-deal-workers-rights-taxes-warning-michael-barnier-a7651971.html

I think this is interesting in the way it is being reported. One would think it is the EU's stance towards the UK only. However, it seems to be an associated with EU trade deals per se. Someone told me the signing up to the human rights element slowed down the CETA agreement. It surprised me as it was Canada.

So this is not a uniquely harsh way of dealing with the UK. These issues seem to be linked to EU trade agreements, not a new punishment type invented just for the UK. It is like "we know the principles that are usually linked with your trade agreements, but if you apply them to us the same as everyone else you're just being mean."

www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2014/536410/EXPO_IDA(2014)536410_EN.pdf

"The EU-Canada Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), which is closely linked to CETA and which will also require consent by the Parliament under ordinary legislative procedure (OLP), was initialled by the EU's High Representative Catherine Ashton and Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird in Ottawa on 8 September 2014. This SPA reinforces the two partners' strategic partnership, first established in 2011, by reiterating shared values and objectives, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, the rule of law, international peace and security, and effective multilateralism. The framework agreement also consolidates cooperation on energy and sustainable development, while opening new opportunities in the fields of research and innovation. Research and innovation issues are particularly linked to the CETA economic agreement.

There may be some better and clearer examples.

Someone told me the signing up to the human rights element slowed down the CETA agreement. It surprised me as it was Canada.

But in which direction ? EU unhappy with Canadian human rights (about which I know all) or Canada unhappy with EU human rights ?

Despite the absolute non-information shat out by the likes of the Mail, the ECHR/ECtHR have allowed quite a broad dilution of rights in certain circumstances.

www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/amber-rudd-appears-to-be-using-whatsapp?utm_term=.fuPJ4D3jA#.wlpL69lDB

Amber Rudd. WhatsApp user.

CETA and human rights - a quote from Alfred de Zayas, the UN Independent Expert on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order:

"There is a legitimate fear that CETA will dilute environmental standards, food security, and health and labour protection," he said. “A treaty that strengthens the position of investors, transnational corporations and monopolies at the expense of the public interest conflicts with the duty of States to protect all people under their jurisdiction from internal and external threats."

Canada had an issue with the human rights clause. An EU FTA with a 3rd country, not the ECHR.

It seems, under the Conservative Stephen Harper gov't (2006-2015), Canada were wont "to pursue political relationships in tandem with economic interests even where political interests or values may not align‘

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/secret-document-details-new-canadian-foreignpolicy-1.1152385

Patty, I am not praising or criticising CETA. My point is that Barnier is reported as mentioning things that are usually in an EU trade agreement with a 3rd country. These things are not being simply invented to put into any future fta with the UK as a 3rd country. Ceta is just an example of one such agreement. It is not about the merits or demerits of any particular agreement, which I am sure are always debatable.

"One would think it is the EU's stance towards the UK only. However, it seems to be an associated with EU trade deals per se. Someone told me the signing up to the human rights element slowed down the CETA agreement. It surprised me as it was Canada."

The terrible, terrible EU. Having humane principles and sticking to them even at a potential economic cost.

We could have been part of this principled albeit not flawless organisation with its emphasis on human and employee rights and its concern for the environment. We could have been at the forefront of this and lead from within.

The more I find out, the more I despair about Brexit. How stupid and utterly tragic to have voted Leave. Just when technology is bringing the world closer together (digital technology, air travel, having to tackle global warming and deal with the effect of war across the globe and the refugee crisis, which we have contributed to) we have decided to leave our security network. D'oh! And why? Because of xenophobia, plain and simple. We couldn't bare people speaking Polish on the train and hughstreet and we thought we can benefit economically from EU migrants but got envious that they expected an education and health acre for their children. Mind boggling arrogance and stupidity.

Maybe they'll let us back in in 30 or 40 years if we ask ever so nicely.

Of course it's worth noting now (just in case some Tory numpty pretends it's some sort of revolutionary suggestion in future) that one thing trade deals can do, is enforce political values.

So quite aside from the commercial side of any deal being overseen by the ECJ (for example) the UK could (and probably will) find that any future trade agreements come with a load of inconvenient clauses requiring that any goods or services covered by the deal are produced in accordance with (for example) the ECHR. Which would kill any notion the UK might have of getting cheap tat from Chinese sweatshops and flogging them into Europe. Of course the UK could have a strop and refuse to sign or be bound by such clauses. And while it's doing it, we could probably have a long heart-to-heart with North Korea about how nobody understands us.

It all seems so clear now. Not sure whether to laugh at our own stupidity and pettiness.

And Cameron is just an utter dick for having authorised this ridiculous referendum. Somebody unthread said the UK is not used to multi lateral relations, we just want to be the master.

Maybe we will be lucky and the Polish will send us care parcels in the 2020s?

...or whether to cry

It seems some people in India are looking forward to more access to the EU once the UK is out of it ... anecdotal chatter (but I do have dealings with Indian IT companies).