Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

I'm very interested to see the fallout of today's meeting of the government of 'dunno, haven't looked at it' and the administration of 'we looked at this shit over a year ago'.

Brexit negotiators ‘risk rushing into harmful deals’

From the professor training the UK's new negotiators:

Britain risks signing worthless politically motivated trade deals because ministers are failing to recognise the complexity of Brexit, the expert training Whitehall officials on negotiations has warned.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-negotiators-risk-rushing-into-harmful-trade-deals-cr7bqww8g

Steve Woolcock, of the London School of Economics, who is preparing civil servants from Liam Fox’s international trade department, told The Times that
a political wish to strike an EU deal within two years, followed by swift deals with other countries, is in danger of hurting British industry.

“The greatest danger in trade policy at the moment is that there’s a political imperative to conclude agreements with other countries to show that Brexit works,”

“These are unlikely to have many economic benefits or enable the UK to keep up with other preferential trade agreements.”

"For Britain to retain a level of access similar to that which it already has with the EU would require the most ambitious free trade agreement in history.
Professor Woolcock said, however, that common regulations and standards were likely to be a much tougher challenge than tariff levels."

The academic, who leads the LSE’s advanced trade negotiation course that more than 60 officials from Dr Fox’s department have completed, said
"At a political level there is still no recognition of the difficulties.”

He warned of a lack of attention to the more difficult problem of ensuring that businesses continue to meet EU regulations and can prove that they are meeting them once outside the single market. “All the debate was about tariffs. But tariffs are a minor aspect of doing business internationally today,” he said.

Typically, trade deals hinge less upon removing tariffs on imports and exports than reducing “non-tariff” barriers — including red tape — created by different rules and standards between countries.

The EU’s average external tariff on industrial imports, which British exporters would pay in the event of a hard Brexit with no access to the single market, is 2.3 per cent.
It is higher in industries such as carmaking.

Professor Woolcock said: “The problem is on regulatory issues. The UK has to negotiate some kind of arrangement that can help to continue to ensure that UK regulatory standards will still be seen as equivalent."

The Financial Times reported that
British officials are examining whether to keep the country under the remit of some EU rules after Brexit.

“We simply don’t have the expertise in some areas and wouldn’t have the time to start up agencies from scratch,” an official said.

< Go back into Euratom, PLEASE >

BigChoc No need to go back to Euratom. We could just strengthen our own artisan candle industry.

So Theresa has only just woken up to the fact that she risk smashing up the UK, has she? What has she been doing for nine months - apart from running off to meet Trump and Erdogan?

My impression wrt to Nicola Sturgeon is that her hand is relatively weak, but that she plays it more skilfully. Theresa May might have had a stronger hand, but her blunderbuss approach, although appeasing the right wing of her party, will do no favours in the long run.

Elena Red, white and blue candles obviously.....

To go back to Euratom would require submitting to the hated ECJ. A big no no for Theresa May. Even if we don't want to deal with the ECJ we will have other International Regulations to comply with. May and her loony right don't get it, do they? We are no longer a nation building up an Empire, and in a position to throw our weight about; we are a declining nation which started to lose its Empire 70 years ago but still hasn't worked that out.

I think the trip to Scotland is just PR, to show that she's tried to be inclusive. It must be aimed at her own party, surely no one else will buy it?

The negotiator training article is very interesting BigChoc. I'm sure the course is very good, but isn't this something you learn on the job? How could you possibly teach all the scenarios in a short course?

Perhaps so that she can pretend that she did consult the devolved Governments? I still think she would hate to be seen as the architect of the break up of the UK, which is a distinct possibility, more than being the one who makes a 'success' of Brexit. (No one knows what that would mean so we won't really know if it's been successful or not.)

"We simply don’t have the expertise in some areas"

Hopefully EU experts in these areas don't mind terribly moving over here to help fill the knowledge gaps. Seeing that the UK isn't welcoming of foreigners any longer, they may be more inclined to take their professional capital to more hospitable countries that aren't undergoing decades of restructuring, with all the political, social and economic uncertainties this brings.

I would have thought that highly educated international experts ensuring our country runs as should in the 21st century are not likely to put up with arrogant and xenophobic attitudes from native Brits regarding their foreignness.

After all their children will visit to school with local children whose parents might have voted for Brexit and who might be vehemently against immigration from European countries where people speak several languages but may not speak with regional British accents. These immigrants coming to the UK to boost the economy, house prices, ensure a smooth running of vital services and expecting their children to access education and healthcare that they contribute to, very often as high rate tax payers. I doubt that these families would put up with being marginalised and othered because they are not local or English enough. Why should they? They are not economic migrants and have a wide range of options available to them.

Therefore I am wondering what will happen to our country in the next 10-20 years. Isolated from the rest of Europe under a Tori government that is run by the gutter press and that nurses a bigoted Alt Right fraction in its bosom.

I can also see a United Ireland being a distinct possibility within the next 10 years. The Good Friday Agreement was working well enough, but that has now been cast into doubt, and at the same time, the Protestants in N Ireland are becoming a minority. So what wasn't really thought of 5 years ago is now becoming a possibility.

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorriesMP
To help keep our streets safe, we need to rise up against companies like #Apple and #Whattsapp who provide space and comfort to terrorists

She says on Terrorist Free Twitter.

I bet she's in the Brexit WhatsApp group too.

These are the people in charge of Brexit.

Those Henry VIII powers in The 'Great' Repeal Act are scary.

Brexit really is a luddite movement isn't it?

When is Dorries going to call for cars to be banned and action taken against the car hire firm? Extreme vetting for car drivers please.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/27/amber-rudd-call-backdoor-access-hazy-grasp-encryption?CMP=twt_gu
Rudd's call for backdoor access suggests hazy grasp of encryption

encryption is a binary. Either something is encrypted, and thus secure from everyone, or it’s not.

Handy article for Tory MPs about why they are using WhatsApp to discuss Brexit in the wake of phone hacking.

God they are fucking dim.

Re the Times article: just as Misti has been saying for months and months - the non-tariff barriers are the real issue.

Anyone would think that the Government had advisors that could have told them that! maybe they did and they fired them

On TM visiting NS - that's just grandstanding . Any meaningful consultation would have been done more than 2 days before A50 is to be served and definitely before announcing that we would be leaving the Single Market

@DerekBateman2: Same routine for decades...appease, promise, betray. They have the power so can play with us. Why would anyone trust them https://t.co/ZZb8wPHvYS


We tried to tell youu‏ @LabourOutOfScot*

HERE COMES THE 'JAM TOMORROW'

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2017/03/may-to-offer-holyrood-deal-to-defuse-indyref-call/

As one of the replies quips....."Innovative jam, remembers it's innovative jam"

Even if we don't want to deal with the ECJ we will have other International Regulations to comply with. May and her loony right don't get it, do they?

Which echoes my assertion that Brexiters believe internationally there is no such thing as society. They either don't get (or more likely don't want to get) that if you want to work with other countries you need to agree to submit at some level to power outside your own borders.

Handy article for Tory MPs about why they are using WhatsApp to discuss Brexit in the wake of phone hacking.

God they are fucking dim.

Not really. They are trying to create an environment in which "encryption = baddie". That way, they don't care if they can decrypt or not. They can just get juries to convict on the grounds of "nothing to fear, nothing to hide ....".

Now if everyone used encryption (or if everyone realised that you use encryption everytime you banked online) they'd lose that weapon to.

The general theme of Brexit, Trump and the past 50 years is the vast majority of people being tricked into giving the state the power it needs to control them. Starting with literally and physically disarming us, and moving onto our private thoughts. And if that last seems hyperbolic, then I suggest you encrypt your correspondence to your lawyer on your PC, and await the 2 year jail sentence for refusing to decrypt it.

You did know that RIPA trumps privileged communication didn't you ? Didn't you ? Thank Blair for that ....

Thank you for posting Blair's comments Cailleach.

It's depressing to see further confirmation of two key issues 1) that some areas that voted for Brexit will be the worst hit by it and 2) that the government lacks the competence to negotiate good deals - prioritising short term politics.

It's depressing to see further confirmation of two key issues 1) that some areas that voted for Brexit will be the worst hit by it and 2) that the government lacks the competence to negotiate good deals

If only someone had warned the nation before the vote.

Oh, they did.

Paul Nuttall's six tests of Brexit. You have to laugh our you would cry. People actually believe this is possible without throwing the UK into the economic equivalent of a nuclear winter? Is May really going to continue to appease the looney right by pandering to this sort of suicidal bilge?

Parliament must resume its supremacy of law-making with no impediments, qualifications or restrictions on its future actions agreed in any leaving deal.
Britain must resume full control of its immigration and asylum policies and border controls.
Leaving the EU must involve restoring to the UK full maritime sovereignty.
The UK must retake its seat on the World Trade Organisation and resume its sovereign right to sign trade agreements with other countries.
There must be no final settlement payment to the EU, and no ongoing payments to the EU budget after Brexit.
Brexit must be done and dusted before the end of 2019.

I expect we've only to look at Paul Nuttall's website to find out that he is a master negotiator who brokered the Good Friday Agreement, Dayton Accords and the Treaty of Versailles so I imagine that achieving UKIP's six aims for Brexit is a morning's work for him.