Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

Drwitch I have lived in London for almost 40 years during which I have been in close proximity to two bombs (as in went past them or would have been there within half an hour of them going off) which felt like a close shave but then when you think how many thousands of people would have walked past those sites in that half hour the infinitesimal chances of it having been you that was killed and injured even in bombs that saw greater loss of life, is put in perspective. You are much more likely to suffer a fatal accident at home.

Incidentally none of those bombs was planted by Muslims but I do not recall anyone suggesting all Irish people or Catholics were in some way responsible or should have been / should be stopped from coming here / sent back to Ireland.

Just heard of a Christian choir in Indonesia refused visas to the US for an international choral competition. Amongst the reasons given were that some of the younger members had never travelled and that the Choir Master and his wife had a young child........

UK can't blame EU for problems that led to Brexit, says Juncker

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/24/uk-cant-blame-eu-for-problems-that-led-to-brexit-says-juncker

Semi - I know that you're suffering from "Leaver's Blindness", on occasions, but I suggest you have a closer look at the Brexiter's Arms threads...

Gwynedd voted to remain in the EU remember! So did Ceredigion.

In fact in North Wales, as a whole, around 198,900 votes for leave were cast in North Wales compared to 174,929 to remain - i.e. the margin was only around 20,000 people. Is there any reason to think that most Welsh farmers were among this group? Certainly my Welsh farming relatives were horrified at the outcome.

I understand that Gwynedd, with a large hospital, has a higher proportion of immigrants i.e. health care staff, that some of the other areas. This might account for its vote.

thanks what and lala wil do

I love Charlie Brooker's take on Boris and Gove at their victory conference on 24th June:
'Boris and Gove knew that lots of people hadn't voted Leave and
didn't want to appear too triumphalist so pulled sort of sick and haunted expressions instead. Which was thoughtful of them'.
I'd love to have been a fly on the wall when Bojo and Gove realised they'd actually won.

Semi - I know that you're suffering from "Leaver's Blindness", on occasions, but I suggest you have a closer look at the Brexiter's Arms threads...

I have.

However, I wanted you to elaborate on:

"Ah, Semi with his "alternative facts" again..."

I have never posted anything that I know not to be true.
I am interested as to why you felt the need to intimate that I am a serial liar.

Also, for info, I'm not male (although I suspect that was a deliberate attempt to insinuate that I am a man-troll).

www.independent.co.uk/voices/inside-westminster-brexit-article-50-theresa-may-house-of-lords-a7648436.html

Interesting article on what will happen once the Art50 is triggered (so the White Paper and how to deal with thenhuge amount of bills that need to be changed)
A few things stand out for me
A White Paper due to be published alongside the Article 50 letter will spell out how this complex task will be carried out. The Bill is expected to include a “Henry VIII clause” giving ministers sweeping powers to decide what to keep, without normal parliamentary scrutiny
So we are back to using the Henry VIII powers again

The devil will be in the detail. MPs and peers will fully debate up to 15 Bills stemming from Brexit, including on immigration, customs and trade, but thousands of pages of statutes will be dealt with by secondary legislation.
Followed by
Hopefully MPs will stand their ground this time. They were pretty spineless over the Bill allowing May to invoke Article 50 – understandably, to avoid accusations of overturning the referendum decision. But they could and should show some backbone over the way the EU legislative mountain is tackled.

So in effect, plenty of possibilities for the government to pass through changes they want wo any scrutiny simply because of the sheer number of statuses, laws etc.. that need to be changed.
We are, again, relying on the HoL to keep some sort of resemblance of a democracy.

I thought the idea of Brexit was to be in control of British laws. But MPs won't have any say on a lot of them?
How is that 'taking back control'??

Will the HoC grow a backbone this time? The Tory MPs won't because survival of the party is the be all and end all for the vast majority of them.
Labour? Who knows what they are up to?
SNP, LibDems, and HoL - yes will do what they can.

Roll on Scottish Independence and a United Ireland I say, and then we we see the last of Theresa Brexit means Brexit and I intend to make a success of it May. I look forward to her going down in history as the person along with Cameron who smashed the UK.

Re Gwynedd and Ceredigion voting Remain.

There is a statistical correlation between percentages of Welsh speakers and voting Remain.

Article here cyfriambyth.com/2016/07/04/brexit-ar-iaith-gymraeg/

As the article points out, hospitals and universities may not be so relevant - Wrexham and Swansea have both and voted Leave.

Fewer little Englanders, of course. And more people who don't think decisions made in Brussels are necessarily worse than those made in London.

To be fair on Semi - her contributions on the Westministenders threads - as are Howabout's - are usually amongst the more considered and thoughtful of the Leaver contributions .

I don't follow her around the other threads, so can only judge her on what has been said here.

Times: Brussels chiefs ready for nasty split
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brussels-chiefs-ready-for-a-nasty-divorce-hqqlpvpqq

"Brussels negotiators are ready for a combative Brexit and are braced for the divorce talks to go so badly that Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal.

Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner, said that she was prepared for the worst when Brexit talks begin next week"

"she said that the EU was ready to defend the “jewel” of the single market against unfair competition from Britain.
“We are prepared for a conflictual situation,” Mrs Vestager said. “It will not be easy.”

The European Commission, she revealed, has drawn up “very thorough” contingency plans if negotiations break down.
Mrs Vestager has the job of enforcing the EU’s state aid rules, ensuring that no company or country gets an unfair advantage in the single market.

Echoing concerns raised by other EU officials and diplomats, she said she feared that conflicts could flare up during negotiations over comparatively minor or unpredictable issues.

“I am not divorced but I have seen people divorcing,” she said.

“They find something they were given at the wedding 30 years ago.
They never displayed it.
Then all of a sudden it is the main centre of conflict.
They would rather crash it than let the other one have it.”

pretty I agree about Semi. She does actually answer questions and put forward some valid points about the Leave case rather than just saying 'It's all going to be great'. I notice the pub has got rather quiet.

patty very interesting that Welsh speaking areas were more likely to vote Remain. Is speaking Welsh correlated with income or education? I wonder what is driving it?

As a non-legal person I'm probably missing something important, but I had understood that legislation flowing from the EU had to be enacted by national governments so all the "EU law" is already British law. So what is being repealed by the Great Repeal Act?

miss if I were highly cynical I'd say maybe the DM et al have less effect on them assuming they cba to print a welsh version of their bile. I'm sure that's not true though and they probably do.

eeee in essence, nothing other than name. its more of a we commit to the enshrinement for now but reserves the right to change them once out of the EU. Its a Henry VIII clause that's the issue, it basically means people in back rooms with no scrutiny will decide the changes to laws.

Ministers say that the direction of government is being shaped by what happens on a private WhatsApp message group for 59 members of the European Research Group (ERG), a little-known organisation led by Steve Baker, the High Wycombe MP

From your Times link, BigChoc - this is the same MP whose election campaign was funded by Richard Cook of the so-called Constitutional Research Council, which was in turn the big donor to the DUP/Leave campaign in NI.

I would not be surprised to learn that the ERG is located in the same shady backroom that the CRC is. This is based on the similar names for both entities and the fact that the same MP seems to be embroiled in both.

Richard Cook has pledged to fund a remain vote in Scotland iirc.

He is coming across as a sinister figure.

SemiPermanent:
"Terrorists can be British born too.
They are not always 'other'."

'British born' is a way of othering. There is an implication of a difference from the British volk that is extremely dangerous.

Speaking Welsh may correspond to less enthusiasm for English nationalism.

- 'wales anthem arms parck cardiff 1968 hymne gallois' - French commentary speaks of nationalists.

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/25/pret-a-manger-looks-to-uks-teenagers-to-tackle-looming-staff-crisis

Sandwich chain to offer unpaid work experience to 500 young people to head off recruitment challenge posed by Brexit

I don't get it. Presumably foreign workers are subject to minimum wage legislation, so surely Pret can afford to pay UK people the same amount. Especially given how much they charge for one of their shitty sandwiches.

I suppose we can look forward to Brexit being used as an excuse to treat people badly.

(Mind you according to Private Eye the Graun isn't the most honourable employer either)

British born' is a way of othering. There is an implication of a difference from the British volk that is extremely dangerous.

It's such a stupid thing to say, quite apart from the "othering" aspect. What does it mean? Born in Britain? British by birth? Either or both?

My kids were born British, but not born in Britain. What does that make them?