Westministenders: Danger of "accidental" Brexit (whoops !) ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

i.e. Brexit without a deal - NOT intentionally so - due to UK govt incompetence and mutual UK/EU misunderstandings

The govt is proceeding from abysmal ignorance on a Brexit journey which may blunder into disaster.

Prominent Leave campaigner Richard North:

"The UK Government's narrative seems to rest on the belief that the EU will cave in under pressure, and is thus giving every sign that it is prepared to push negotiations to the wire.

If, on the other hand, the EU are determined not to budge, especially as, with their own White Paper on "The Future of Europe" triggering internal discussions unrelated to Brexit, they are not necessarily fully focused on the "British problem".

As a result, we could end up with an "accidental Brexit",
where the UK negotiators overplay their hand, ending up in the UK leaving without an agreement, forcing it to rely on WTO rules.

Most likely, it will take very little to convince the EU that Mrs May is bluffing – as the effect of the WTO option is likely to be disastrous for the UK economy.

We could thus have each side misreading each other, making the accidental Brexit all the more likely."

www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86395

I thought TM was trying to make distasteful political hay out of her condolences - emphasising the multicultural, global aspect of London is pitching the UK as a place to do business with after Brexit.

That's par for the course for Theresa May, but people coming from elsewhere will want more than her fine words. They will want to feel welcome, and she has done nothing to encourage that.

Several accounts on twitter saying march still on and account has been hacked. I'm sure there will be something official made public soon enough

The Times: downbeat about Brexit chances

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/tory-hardliners-are-not-the-only-ones-against-a-free-trade-deal-with-europe-mt7qprz50

"senior EU politicians and officials have grown increasingly pessimistic since the start of the year that a deal can be reached.
One top official puts the chances of a successful outcome at less than 50 per cent"

"EU officials are downbeat because they doubt that Mrs May has enough political capital to make the compromises necessary to secure an ambitious trade deal.

They are aware that there are powerful voices in the Conservative party who don’t want the negotiations to succeed.

The prime minister’s decision to take the UK out of both the EU single market and the customs union means that the UK will be even further detached from the EU than Turkey."

""Long before the two sides start talking about trade, there is likely to be a fight over process.

The government, conscious of public opinion, wants a process in which it can declare some quick wins, with political leaders agreeing on the principles of a deal even if that means leaving technocrats to fill in the details.

But that is not how the EU, which has vast experience of negotiating complex international agreements, works.

It wants to stick to standard dealmaking practice in which negotiations proceed chapter by chapter, with officials doing the preparatory work and leaving the difficult decisions to politicians, starting with the tricky questions of money and citizens’ rights.

On the European Commission’s timetable, it could be early next year before the negotiations even start to discuss the future trade relationship.

That would require Mrs May to endure months of potentially difficult headlines before the UK glimpsed any upside.

Crucially, the EU’s scope for compromise is far more limited than is widely appreciated.

In this respect, the key institution is the European parliament, which the British government has virtually ignored so far but which must ratify any deal.

The parliament sees its role as defending the European perspective, independent of national interests.
Its priority will be to maintain the cohesion of the 27 remaining EU states, ensure a future level playing field and guard against any signs of “cherry-picking” by the UK."

Meanwhile at the Torygraph < sounds of unicorn poop plopping down >

Jean-Claude Juncker thinks he has Britain over a barrel. Au contraire, mon ami: we’ll be just fine without you

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/22/jean-claude-juncker-thinks-has-britain-barrel-au-contrairemon/

"It is disappointing Brussels starts our new relationship with incendiary demands for cash.
Agreeing to this payment, we’re told, is “a precondition” for any talks on Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU.

The UK should make no such concession – for three delusions reasons.

First, while we may indeed end up paying some “Brexit charge” – for EU pensions and other programmes we may want to stay part of – the actual amount is integral to what will clearly be a multifaceted negotiation.
Far from opening the talks, any monetary payment should be the final piece of the UK’s Article 50 jigsaw.

Second, whatever Juncker says, there are huge industrial interests across the EU desperate for a UK trade deal.

Germany’s all-powerful auto manufacturers know Britain is their largest market.

For French food-producers and Italian furniture-makers, UK access represents billions of euros of profits and countless local jobs.

As Juncker grandstands, commercial lobbies will be whispering to current and prospective political leaders for UK-EU trade barriers to be kept as low as possible.

The third reason to hold our nerve is that
the UK will be fine if no EU deal is struck during the two-year window and we instead use World Trade Organisation rules."
< sighs, shovels up unicorn poop for the roses >

The usual contradiction... we'll be fine without a deal, but we'll definitely get a deal because German carmakers :-/

DUNSTER AND TIMBERSCOMBE
(West Dorset)
Con
Con, green, lib dem and labour.
Last election was just con V green.
Con councillor resigned blaming government for cuts in letter.
God knows what's going to happen...

LEOMINSTER SOUTH
Herefordshire
Independent
Two independents, con and lib dem standing
Again clueless

HIGHER CROFT
Blackburn with Darwen
Labour
Con, lab and ukip
Should stay labour... Should... Not betting on it

No by elections next week...

www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/03/23/britons-used-to-keep-calm-and-carry-on-theresa-may-wants-us-to-be-scared -
piece by Ellie Mae O’Hagan in the Washington Post on May’s history of hostility to immigrants and human rights legislation; the rise of racism, the Daily Mail … “jingoistic, authoritarian and frankly hysterical”

Thanks for the link mrsquagmire, it paints an unpleasantly realistic picture of our nation today:

It is difficult to overstate just how rancid the British political ecosystem has gradually become; how divided the country seems, and how heavily the borders of discourse are policed to root out anyone who doesn’t conform to a certain brand of implicitly white, hyper-nostalgic, empire-worshipping patriotism.

Scathing paragraph from that link:

"It is difficult to overstate just how rancid the British political ecosystem has gradually become; how divided the country seems,
and how heavily the borders of discourse are policed to root out anyone who doesn’t conform to a certain brand of implicitly white, hyper-nostalgic, empire-worshipping patriotism.

< all the time the right are complaining that "political correctness" stops them speaking freely. On the KH thread, pp even claiming it stops the police from arresting Muslim terrorists >

It is this context into which we must anticipate the British political response to a terrorist attack. Those who are hoping Britain will conduct itself with trademark stoicism and enlightenment may find themselves confronted with a jingoistic, authoritarian and frankly hysterical nation instead."

LH Do you also notice a difference to the Troubles ?
A visceral nastiness from wide sections of the public now that I didn't see then.
There was considerable anti-Irish feeling & prejudice, but social niceties prevented this being expressed so openly.

Now, is seems there are no constraints on what hard right journalists can write and media can publish.
Sadiq Khan has picked on ever since his election, the crime of being elected while Muslim, but it looks like he'll be personally savaged for every terror attack.

The openly anti-Muslim posts on the KH thread and elsewhere on MN are vile, unashamed and widespread.
Pp openly wanting fascists like LePen to be elected, as our "saviours"

www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2017/mar/23/look-out-america-her-comes-katie-hopkins-london-loathing-hate-speech-westminster-attack

Yes Marina has it covered. KH is just a slightly younger splenetic version of disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.....

Wrt TM's nationality calling - it reminded me of Susie Blake' newsreader on Victoria Wood, who wound up a piece on a foreign disaster with:

'Nobody British was hurt'.

Former MP charged with electoral fraud. Although not related to Parliamentary results, and a UKIP defector, so it wouldn't seem to have implications for the Tories.

Dunster & Timberscombe (West Somerset) result:
LDEM: 49.7% (+49.7)
CON: 32.9% (-26.7)
GRN: 10.9% (-29.6)
LAB: 6.6% (+6.6)

I gather that turnout was poor, but that in itself tells you something.

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 50m50 minutes ago

Leominster South (Herefordshire) result:
GRN: 40.8% (+10.1)
IOC: 18.3% (+18.3)
CON: 17.8% (-8.7)
IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
LDEM: 8.2% (+8.2)

Green gain from Independent. My DD tells me that this sort of thing is not a surprise - it's become a bit of an area fashionable with hippies and the like.

Meanwhile
Higher Croft (Blackburn):
Election declared null and void. because the Labour candidate was ineligible to stand because of his employment status. Honestly, you think that someone would have checked beforehand.

Times: Brexit-backing MPs plot their attacks on WhatsApp

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-backing-mps-plot-their-attacks-on-whatsapp-sw5gp7680

"They are the most powerful opposition force in British politics"

"The most aggressive and successful political cadre in Britain today is run by a nucleus of Brexit-supporting Tory MPs from the traditional right who for more than a decade were derided by David Cameron."

"Ministers say that the direction of government is being shaped by what happens on a private WhatsApp message group for 59 members of the European Research Group (ERG), a little-known organisation led by Steve Baker, the High Wycombe MP"

"The backbench group consists of the highest profile Brexiteers from the referendum:
Dominic Raab, Iain Duncan Smith, Owen Paterson, Michael Gove, Bernard Jenkin and Theresa Villiers as well as Suella Fernandes and others. "

"It is all co-ordinated through a WhatsApp group with the unpromising title: “ERG DExEU/DIT Suppt Group” — revealing its intention to “support” the two Brexit ministries, the Department for Exiting the EU and the Department for International Trade.

It has one main aim: to ensure a hard, clean Brexit with minimal or no payments to the EU, minimal reliance on EU judgments and maximum flexibility to work with the rest of the world."

"Its best-known interventions have come when the group has attacked those seen to be standing in the way of a hard Brexit."

" In December ERG members took on Sir Ivan Rogers, Britain’s man in Brussels for talking down the country, with Mr Raab criticising “Sir Ivan’s gloomy pessimism” in the papers."

"Duncan Smith led criticism of the High Court judges for forcing Theresa May to introduce a bill to authorise the triggering of Article 50 in newspapers and broadcast media, calling it an “undemocratic verdict” and cowing MPs who might stand in the way of the bill.

"The group also piled pressure on Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, over his pessimistic forecasts, with Mr Baker challenging him in the Treasury select committee and on Twitter.

Soon afterwards, the governor said that he would return to Canada earlier than indicated."

"When The Times reported that Deloitte, the management consultant, was warning of Brexit chaos in Whitehall, ERG members attacked the firm and all those who reported what it said"

“Our real power is that, by using the WhatsApp group,
we can also ask everyone to shut up,”
said a key member of the group.

“If the request goes out, MPs of all levels of seniority stop giving interviews, quotes to newspapers or complaining.

Sometimes No 10 asks this — the fact we can deliver gives awesome leverage.”

"Although the ERG pressures government, ministers and whips feel compelled to work with it.
Members of the group were given special briefings before Mrs May’s Lancaster House speech, "

"The majority of the group picked Andrea Leadsom to be their leadership candidate against Mrs May,
but Mrs May has turned out to be everything that they could have hoped for as prime minister."

“We get everything we want,” said one leading figure.

Dominic Raab is an odious piece of scum, who is obviously very happy to ignore the fact that his constituency voted 60% remain.

And Elmbridge is a leafy bit of Surrey for any Svetlanas lurking around!

It has one main aim: to ensure a hard, clean Brexit with minimal or no payments to the EU, minimal reliance on EU judgments and maximum flexibility to work with the rest of the world."

Oh, I can see them delivering a 'hard' Brexit all right. It won't be clean, it will be as dirty as you get. I can't see any of them have a clue about the second part of the sentence - the maximum flexibility to work with the rest of the world. I don't see any of them being able to negotiate trade agreements, or agreements on services. Other countries will see a set of wreckers in a country which reneges on agreements. Just think of who they are - IDS - a notable failure when Tory party leader, Gove - a pretty dismal failure as Education Secretary, Teresa Villiers - I don't recall any achievements from her time in N Ireland, Raab - already mentioned as a piece of scum.

Adam Wagner @adamwager1
"Google" appears to have replaced "human rights" in Daily Mail blame lexicon

And there you have it. Trying to repeal the internet...

RE: Katie Hatkins. In the past Sinn Fein leaders were not given a platform. The reasoning behind this is because the point of terrorism is to give oxygen to causes. Radical Islam wants you to be racist as it's the way they recruit as the example of Adrian seems to suggest initially (terrorists don't sound so scary if they are named Adrian do they?)

Hence why the likes of the far right leader who ran to Westminster to get an interview, 52 year olds from Kent, millionaire Russian lovers and Hatkins who says we are all too scared to admit the 'truth' (and was too spineless to turn up at a recent court case) love terror attacks. Amazing isn't it.

And May normalises 'British born' over 'British' to suggest there is a difference. All part of the same thing.

Language matters. The way the media response matters.

The Mail going on about Google and how you can find how to build a bomb on Google is beyond bonkers. I'm not sure why they haven't gone all out and produced a supplement for today's issue called 'the mail's guide to be being a terrorist'. Let's all go and rush out to buy a copy today. Maybe that's the cunning plan. Any one with the wrong skin colour or a funny accent should be reported to the police immediately today if they purchase a copy. Why else would they buy one? It's just for the indigenous to feel like there is more terrorism.

Though i have to say if you have to Google a manual on how to commit a terrorist attack with a car then i wonder just how dumb you are. It kind of makes the gag of four lions which painted British terrorists clowns who were too stupid to kill anyone but themselves look pretty realistic. Obviously the mail think their readers are on this level though...

Oh and according to the mail, knives and cars come from the EU. Ban them.

WhatsApp? Isn't that the choice of extremists? When are the mail doing a story on that?

Adam Wagner @adamwager1
^Link between them: both attack Mail's business model
Google: dominated advertising
Human rights: right to privacy (can't pap as much)^

And Google just downgraded them on their search engine. This is a trade war...

More "trouble at 'tmill"' in Deadwood Redwood's patch of
Wokingham as another councillor quits to join the Lib Dems. For those who haven't got time to click on the link - a choice extract:

“There are many good Members in the Conservative Group, however, they are required to adhere to the wishes of a clique that promotes unnecessary politicisation, obsessive secrecy, playing at consultations, side-lining backbenchers, restricting the number of Council meetings, lack of financial transparency and accountability and over use of patronage provided by the allowance system to name some.”

He continued: “In addition, colleagues who know me well will tell you that I have had increasing difficulty with the EU Referendum and the fall-out from this. The restricted franchise, totally ignoring the 48%, placing everything in the hands of the far-right wing of the party, ignoring that this is about the 30 to 40 years future of the young, not the old; Teressa May would do well to listen to Sir John Major on this aspect.

Wokingham was a strong Remain area - Deadwood is one of the prime movers for a 'hard' Brexit.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/ukips-biggest-donor-david-camerons-former-strategist-plot-oust/
Ukip's biggest donor and David Cameron's former strategist in plot to oust 100 Remain MPs' - Chopper's Brexit Podcast Episode 4

Sigh.