Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

Remember, the Tories own Brexit - and all the consequences.
Remember this in 2-3 years time

Scotland is so unclear - lots of interesting (and, noticeably, more articulate) views expressed on tv and radio today. So many permutations.

Anti-immigrant Scottish nationalists may be happy staying in a nationalist UK.
Some will be fully aware of effects of voting to teach someone a lesson. And dangers of voting blind.

I know the instinct might be to get as far away from the Westminster Tories as possible - completely understand - but it's still, atm, a case of not knowing what you'd be voting for. Leaving itself will be enough for some, like Brexit.

I'm not a nationalist so I'd not be looking forward to another referendum at all if I was living in Scotland.

Friend today spent the afternoon discussing with the Law Society how the UK can ensure it is classified as a safe and "adequate" jurisdiction for handling data post Brexit.

.....and if it isn't, then any data storage involving EU citizens will be in breach of EU law. There's an easy solution: you can just relocate your data centres from the UK to the EU. Simples.

Do they bigchoc?
I'd agree if it weren't for the fact that Labour seem pro leave too and have presented no opposition at all....

Torygraph: May must not fall into this carefully laid trap

"Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to start the formal process for holding a second Scottish independence referendum before Theresa May had even triggered Article 50 is a reminder of why she’s a top-class politician.

A call that might have been almost lost in the Brexit clamour, or dismissed as petulant, is ringing clearly today.
It is Mrs May, if anyone, who looks reactive as she struggles to find a formulation that resists, or at least delays, a second poll.

The prime minister knows that simply blocking it would do most to recruit nationalist opinion"

"The trouble ..... is that opinion polls are likely to shift in favour of holding a referendum in the coming months and it is not credible that voters won’t have a good idea of the sort of deal on offer by 2019, identified by Ms Sturgeon as her preferred date to hold the poll.

Unionists will need better arguments and a more nimble response if they are to avoid falling into Ms Sturgeon’s meticulously-laid trap."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/13/nicola-sturgeon-cannot-stop-brexit-can-make-life-difficult-theresa2/

Well, quite. And if she agrees to a 2nd referendum for Scotland, she's tacitly agreeing to another one on the EU.

A tweet from an EU national
In 27yrs I've given more to this country than many people born here. Not just financially. Now this country won't guarantee my freedom

This is why we are not the 48% - and we never were.

We need EU nationals to hold up our industries including the NHS.

EU nationals might not have a right to vote. They do have a right to take legal action. So what is going to happen now.

Dominic Grieve is trying to tell the rest of the government something

Legal floodgates are about to open...

Badders That's why Corbyn's Brexit strategy is so disastrous, it's lose-lose:

• The Tories won't allow Labour to share the credit if Brexit goes well

• After Corbyn imposing 3-line whips on his MPs to vote Brexit, Labour will share the blame if Brexit goes badly - as in the playground, the Tories will say "they did it too, miss"

It's why I said we must remember who are driving Brexit - Labour only got in the car with the druggy driver. Bad, but only a passenger.

I mean, we must remember in 2-3 years and try to disregard the hyoe and blame game

Unfortunately (for FUKD), in the absence of any vertebrate opposition , I don't think she has agreed tacitly or not to any such thing

The difference in Scotland is that there is a majority (both Greens and SNP) who are prepared to kick up a stink.

In England, everyone seems to be relying on Gina Miller

NS's move today was a masterstroke, and the first time I think TM has truly been on the defensive. Will be interesting to see if she now delays A50 to avoid it coming so soon after NS's speech.

Torygraph: Nicola Sturgeon can make life very difficult for Theresa May

"Nicola Sturgeon’s threat of a second independence referendum is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening for the simple reason that Theresa May will not allow her to hold one while negotiations with the EU are underway.

But a demand for another vote would make the Prime Minister’s already fiendishly complicated task even more difficult.

According to some MEPs from other member states with whom I’ve spoken,
the European Commission’s lead negotiators will use Ms Sturgeon’s demands as a stick with which to beat and undermine Mrs May.

When the talks get fraught, the MEPs said

Michel Barnier and his team would delight in pointing out that the Prime Minister’s negotiating stance is not even supported by governments in all parts of the United Kingdom."

"they said the Commission would also use this request, which is almost certainly going to be rejected by the Government, to irritate and undermine Mrs May."

"But the First Minister could still exert pressure on the Prime Minister by
running an independence campaign in parallel with the Brexit negotiations, providing a running critical commentary on how the UK Government was “betraying” Scotland."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/13/nicola-sturgeon-cannot-stop-brexit-can-make-life-difficult-theresa2/

Btw, I hope you all saw this wonderful thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/2872429-Mumsnet-exclusive-PM-announces-Budget-funding-for-domestic-violence-survivors-and-for-returnships?watched=1&msgid=67587940#67587940

The MN exclusive from No 10.

When May can sort out her own house when it comes to the sexist jerks in her own party who actively go out of their way to hinder debates on domestic violence, and doesn't go holding hands with other jerks who have a Cabinet full of jerks who have track records of proven domestic violence, I might not fall about laughing like a demented pig who just got throw a rotten apple.

I am also not terribly impressed with MN in sucking this up in this manner, and not taking a stronger line in saying "Yes and....? What about the rest of the stuff we need to tackle this issue. This is about as useful as trying to bail out a boat with a thimble".

Would I be right in thinking everyone here would support a 66.6% majority before Scotland is allowed to leave the United Kingdom?

No, what I want to see from Scotland is a 52:48 % vote for Independence, and then hear May and her pals telling us why this is not an 'overwhelming' mandate, and that 'the people have spoken' and that their will mustn't be thwarted.

So, really, England and Wales should hold a referendum to see if there is a majority will to leave the UK, in order to then leave the EU.

Scotland and NI, who wish to maintain the status quo (in their EU membership), would presumably not need to hold such a ref.

I am also worried that 15 year olds wont get a vote on this, they will be the most affected. WILL THEY GET A VOTE. and if not why not?

May 'disallowing' an Indyref during Brexit may play into Sturgeon's hands - the longer the delay, the more clear the economic effects, the more likely a vote to Leave. If we crash out with no deal - Scotland's gone.

If the ref goes ahead now I'm still sure the 2018/19 vote would be a no, however, I'm so delighted with the impact that it doesn't matter.

It took Ireland 40 years (well more like 500) to get free - Scotland's on its way now.

I used (during Indy #1) I thought that a ref on major change needed a substantial majority, say 60%
The Brexit ref has completely demolished that argument

Scotland Indy doesn't even need 52%
After Brexiters saying a narrow majority wins all, it would be difficult to resist even a 50.1% Indy vote

Yes: No is about 50:50 atm

I personally don't know who Tom Raynor is, but I find this open letter to Theresa May, very interesting. I don't suppose she will read it.

I especially like the comment As May said in her first speech as PM, she is leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. She’s already cost the Unionist parties in NI their lead, and the Union itself is next.
I don't know if that is strictly true, because my understanding the NI situation was about 'cash for ash', but either way, I see a United Ireland as becoming almost inevitable within 20 years.

One might take the view that England & Wales are leaving Scotland and NI

One might indeed take that view - if England & Wales were voting to become independent of the UK.
Which they're not.

Well, quite. And if she agrees to a 2nd referendum for Scotland, she's tacitly agreeing to another one on the EU.

If Scotland want to have an independence referendum, then that is entirely up to Scotland. I would expect TM to green light it - it is not tacit agreement of anything at all - rather it is respecting the right of Scotland to decide its own destiny.

Being part of the UK is not mandatory, it is a union, and can only remain a union if all countries consent to it being a union.

Don't forget NI:

As we said on the last thread, Irish Republicans learned by late 1990s that the Uk govt can shrug off thousands of ordinary civilian deaths & mutilations, but that a few bombs hitting London financial institution forced major concessions.

The govt will have trouble persuading financial institutions to stay in the UK after Brexit, if Irish Republicans are bombing the City again - damage to some of those huge buildings could mean a billion quid per bomb.

Hence May could choose to let NI stay in the EU, so that rUK can leave with its financial centre intact.