Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

Scotland doesn't need a ground based military at all, obviously.

Naval would be desirable, but could be hire the RN presumably and the primary role of the RAF is Op Adana in Scotland (which is intercepting potentially hijacked aircraft) so Scotland could hire in the RAF for that.

But then that leaves the original point I made, which is that Moray's economy (and others) relies very very heavily on the military presence.

Wouldn't Scotland have an Air Force, army or navy?

How many countries would an independent Scotland be planning on bombing ?

Wouldn't Scotland have an Air Force, army or navy?

Also - and even more problematic for a Scotland-less UK than it would be for Scotland is the fact that in order to defend the UK, the UK needs to defend Scotland - regardless of whether it's part of the Union or not.

I referred to Ireland upthread ... ISTR there is some sort of acknowledgement from Ireland that the UK will defend it out of enlightened self-interest.

The UK would be forced to defend Scotland, even if Scotland chose not to pay us a penny for it.

Again anyone with a working knowledge of history would know that i the past, many invasions started with a country invading a neighbour to secure their borders Ukraine . Or Israel.

"Is it me or are the government starting to admit that The Cake Is A Lie? "

Not just you. The message that's creeping out stealthily but quite definitely now seems to be that the EU are not going to give us what we want so we will, most sadly, be better off crashing out, and it will be their fault not ours.

Obviously when remainers said the EU wouldn't be giving us everything we wanted in return for nothing at all that was just Project Fear (because German cars or prosecco or something), and the coming predicament is in no way related to any of those warnings.

I think you predicted this some time ago, didn't you?

The message that's creeping out stealthily but quite definitely now seems to be that the EU are not going to give us what we want so we will, most sadly, be better off crashing out, and it will be their fault not ours.

But this won't matter, because the rest of the World, or indeed the Solar System is going to rush to trade with us. OK in return for a few more visas for their citizens, (who might have black or brown faces, but it wasn't about immigration was it?)

The UK would be forced to defend Scotland, even if Scotland chose not to pay us a penny for it.

Again, spectacularly missing the point.

What of the areas throughout Scotland whose economies are utterly reliant on the military presence?

What of the areas throughout Scotland whose economies are utterly reliant on the military presence?

They could continue to have a military presence, just a Scottish one rather than a UK one.

Mother thanks for the Spain link

I've never believed the Spain thing - Catalonia and Basque are really not comparable to Scotland.

The UK would be forced to defend Scotland, even if Scotland chose not to pay us a penny for it

I got distracted ... I wanted to add that if an independent Scotland is unpalatable in any form to the Brexit camp, then the very real likelihood of an independent Scotland enjoying the defence capability of the UK for free is probably even worse. And just when you think that's bad enough, the Scots dislike of nuclear weapons might make any suggestion that Scotlands defence contribution to the UK should cover Trident might make it politically untenable for a future independent Scotland to pay the full defence tariff a UK might ask.

Which obviously ups the bill for Trident (which I never wanted anyway) even more for the rest of us. Making last week budget look like a giveaway, compared to what's coming.

What of the areas throughout Scotland whose economies are utterly reliant on the military presence?*

They could continue to have a military presence, just a Scottish one rather than a UK one.*

And how could Scotland afford to set up & run its own military?

The areas in Scotland that rely on a military presence will have to find something else.

In exactly the same way as those in Scotland and England and Wales where bases are already being closed, such as Prince William of Gloucester Barracks, near Grantham, and Imphal Barracks in York. Even part of Catterick is going to be closed - soz, Yorkshire. Brecon Baracks will be no more, after 220 years.

The old SAS place outside Hereford, BTW, is now a business park.

I got distracted ... I wanted to add that if an independent Scotland is unpalatable in any form to the Brexit camp, then the very real likelihood of an independent Scotland enjoying the defence capability of the UK for free is probably even worse

Scottish independence has cock all to do with 'the Brexit camp', or indeed 'the Remain camp' though - it is solely down to Scotland's citizens, and what they want.

The UK would be forced to defend Scotland, even if Scotland chose not to pay us a penny for it.

Again, spectacularly missing the point.

What of the areas throughout Scotland whose economies are utterly reliant on the military presence?

No, it's the point entirely. An independent Scotland - kindly defended by the UK paying for it - would not be spending a single penny on soldiers, armies, tanks, ships and nuclear weapons. All that saved money would easily cover those areas regeneration.

No matter how much your neighbour, in their 50 bed mansion might begrudge it, they would be mad not to fit your attached cowshed with a sprinkler system at their own cost.

I'm beginning to dislike Scotland now. You can manage binary referenda and be cool and have all the smart, canny, funny politicians.

please don't leave us, we actually need to borrow the decent politicians

Brexit: Article 50 will not be triggered this week, Downing Street revealed

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-article-50-wont-be-triggered-this-week-theresa-may-eu-referendum-latest-news-rome-treaty-a7627676.html

No, it's the point entirely. An independent Scotland - kindly defended by the UK paying for it - would not be spending a single penny on soldiers, armies, tanks, ships and nuclear weapons. All that saved money would easily cover those areas regeneration.

With what money?
The lost tax receipts from the tens of thousands employed by the bases in those areas (local civilians make up a large number of those employees).
The lost revenue of the wider local economy with none of those formerly employed spending their money, needing the school places etc.

However the nuclear base is at Faslane. The UK govt don't want these things anywhere else, so I am sure we could all come to some sort of amicable agreement.

Who says it's up to the UK ? You can bet your bottom dollar (literally) that the US will be the final arbiter of where those missiles get parked.

If the US doesn't like an independent Scotland having the missiles (bearing in mind Scotland doesn't want them) then the UK can whistle.

Yet another demonstration of UK "control".

And obviously they don't come fully formed - the personnel need to be trained up etc.

To train a basic level aircraft techie is a year - then all the trade training etc from there...
And trade experience etc too.

And the cost of the bases too, of course....

.... except that - Scotland already part "owns" (as an equal member of the Union ) those bases and has paid towards the training of those personnel - in the same way that we part own the deficit that has been built up to pay for all these wars, Trident etc. And surely rUK (or FUKD) wouldn't need as big an armed force afterwards, so that current military personnel could choose who they wanted to continue with (not sure what happened in India, NZ, Malta etc - must go an read up on it)

Unless of of course, you are also suggesting that Scotland walks away from its share of the deficit? now there's an idea

As long as Scotland commits to spending the required 2% of GDP on defence spending, then it should be able to to join NATO - iirc, that was in the SG's White Paper in the run up to the previous Indyref (unless FUKD really does want to bear the burden of defending the British Isles ) you know, a White Paper that is produced in advance of a referendum so that people know at least the approximate shape of what they are voting for and yes, so that it can be ripped to shreds

With what money?

(finds a fag packet)

Cost of Trident renewal £205 billion.

Per capita UK(2017) = 205,000,000,000/65,000,000 = £3,100

Population of Scotland = 5,300,000

Money not spent = c. £16,430,000,000 (5,300,000 x 3,100)

What could you do with £16 billion ?

What's stopping May from triggering Brexit until next week or the week after? Is she expecting some sort of fracas? Or does she just want to piss all over the Treaty of Rome's 60th anniversary to win her extra friends in the rEU?