Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

Hopefully this will cheer you up badders mother and anyone/everyone else

The idea that we can have two years of secret negotiations is patently ludicrous.

Not really ... in fact, the Brexit deal is all finished. In total secrecy.

Well I haven't heard anything.

In other news, stewed tea on your lawn keeps elephants away. I can't remember last time I saw an elephant on my lawn, so it must work.

I totally agree with that Richard Dawkins article. The reality is that the pensioners who voted massively to leave are gradually going to die off whereas more and more young people, who voted massively to remain, are going to become of voting age. If you held the Referendum again in 4 or 5 years, you'd get a very different result. But it's young people who will bear the biggest burden of Brexit. I genuinely lie awake at night about how it will affect my children.

Welcome back, rtb

There's an argument to be made that only once A50 is triggered will real world considerations start to play a serious role in the debate.

Agree. Although every bit of me thinks Brexit is a mistake of humongous proportions, at this stage I would rather get on with A50 and the negotiations. I want to start dealing with reality and fact rather than the rhetoric and flag waving we have been subjected to since June.

Any thoughts on what Nicola Sturgeon is going to say?

Swedish's Frances Coppola link is an interesting view of EU workings:

www.coppolacomment.com/2017/03/game-theory-in-brexitland.html

"the easy way of defusing the "hostages" problem is for the EU to offer UK nationals right-to-remain unilaterally, and then dare the UK to deport EU nationals."
< yes ! The simplest, quickest and most humane option >

"There would also be WTO tariffs on trade with countries such as South Korea with which the EU has free trade agreements, since it is highly unlikely that these countries would allow grandfathering of EU free trade agreements.

"None of this is good news for the UK.
They are not great for the EU either, but EU countries could be forgiven for thinking that the loss of one country from the trading bloc would not make a great deal of difference - after all, there are still 27 of them and they can all trade freely with each other, as well as with the rest of the world under existing tariff arrangements.
The UK, however, would be facing new tariffs on at least 45% of its exports, and it also would be obliged to impose MFN tariffs on over 50% of its imports."
< we must keep repeating this until it sinks in >

"But the EU can walk away.
After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand.
And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government"

The Scarfe cartoon there is a good summary:

I think she is just going to re-state what she has said since 24 June: that Scotland needs to be considered in the triggering of A50. A shot across the bows if May does get her bill passed today and triggers tomorrow.

As Hacker said in one of the Yes, Ministers which appropriately was on last night, "If you're going to do this damn stupid thing, don't do it this damn stupid way"

Didn't expect her to come out as explicitly as this.

Any thoughts on how results in elections in the Netherlands (Wednesday !), France, Germany may affect the EU's negotiating strategy ?

If the far right is vanquished, would negotiators downgrade the importance of making the Uk an example pour encourager décourager les autres ?

imo, the concessions May would need for her to survive a deal are so major - abandonment of the 4 pillars - that the elections won't affect things.

I can't watch it- what is she saying?

I think she's going to put the cat amongst the pigeons

She's essentially saying that because of WM's intransigence and although she will continue to try to talk to then, she has a specific mandate to ask the Scottish people again - given the material change in circumstance - she will ask for the Section 30 legislation to be put in place and that another Indyref is likely between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.

Thanks pretty

Just adding to the chaos then- you can see her point though

As with the Titanic - another example of English hubris and ignoring all warnings - the rich and the mobile will escape on lifeboats while the plebs drown

She mentioned that WM has talked about special deals for Nissan the car industry and London the financial sector but there has been refusal to even consider a special deal for Scotland.

NS is trying to launch a lifeboat for Scotland

She has let the cat out hasn't she!

I wonder what that will do for TM A50 plans.

In convinced Scotland will vote out next time if it's a choice between that and hard Brexit- it's the ultimate rock and a hard place but at least they'd have control of their own fate.

Interesting to hear the thoughts of the few Leavers left round here as there is a very strong Scottish representation

I know that article I posted upthread was a spoof, but the more the rights of UK based EU nationals is wafted gently into the long grass, then the possibility that the UK could - out of Brexiteer spite - condemn future UK citizens to life in Gulag UK seems one outcome.

I was asked upthread how the UK might react to the current suggestion of an "EU citizenship" being available post-A50. One scenario is simply to refuse to recognise it. (The UK government and legal system are very good at "not recognising" things they don't like). And there are plenty of countries in the world where some citizenships are mutually exclusive.

(It's worth bearing in mind that it's only within living memory that is has become possible to give up British citizenship - at one point you were saddled with it from birth).

There are plenty of ways - some of them very nasty - in which the UK could make sure that UK citizens don't get any ideas about swanning of to the EU. And right now, there is absolutely nothing stopping them.

Just of the top of my head: get a job in Europe ? Kiss goodbye to your UK pension. Free treatment in the UK NHS. Access to any UK benefits when/if you return. State-provided education for your UK children ? Not for you.

Nice wee dig about WM/the Brexiteers claiming that it is going to have free trade with the whole world - with the exception of one country should the Indyref succeed - Scotland.

I really hope that NS is right this time and that she does win a referendum otherwise it will be very humiliating for her (and give carte blanche to WM to do what they like with Scotland, even more than they do now). How long until NI does the same?

I wonder what that will do for TM A50 plans.

In a way it might strengthen her stance. Once you cleave off that pesky remain majority Scotland, the Leave majority in England has proportionally just increased .

Would TM have the arrogance to refuse to allow Scotland a referendum? My understanding is that NS has to apply to WM to legislate for it (that's the main reason Catalonia hasn't seceded, for example: Madrid won't allow a legitimate vote on the matter). I can see not allowing a Scottish referendum playing quite well in the Tory heartlands which is the only thing May is worried about.

I think that's why she's not just doing it because she thinks she can win (which she says she does), but also because she thinks it is the right thing to do - to give the Scottish people the choice. Nice wee bit of wriggle room.

Personally, I think she has been forced by events to come back to the Scottish people before she would have wanted.

She said at her MSP adoption meeting (which was before the manifesto was written and before the EU vote was lost unexpectedly ) that ideally she'd wait until the polls were 60:40 in favour. They're not there yet - but there again, they're at 50:50 without campaigning even having started. Salmon started when the polls were something like 30% in favour and doubled that proportion.