Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

Well I'm certainly drumming into my own dcs that they ar xtremely lucky to be able to go Europe and study there.
I am also careful about not scaring them about Brexit and what it can mean. They are still children. But they are also hearing us talking about possibly moving abroad and that it's possible I will not be allowed to stay in the uk.

I agree with BigChoc if I could I would be out somewhere now.

LH I know it's fake news but you know the bit about
“Rather than do the right thing, we’re just going to strip the young of their EU citizenship to prevent them escaping Brexit Britain in search of a better life in the European Union
Actually thatnwouod explain why TM never jumped at the opportunity of giving British citizens the European citizenship (thereby ensuring that Brits abroad would have no issue staying there) when this was suggested. The risk of a diaspora of young talent is too big.

It's stunning professional negligence that the govt has wasted all those months since 24 June on playing to the gallery and bugger all of practical use in preparing for Brexit.

What have they achieved ?

I hope Misti is correct that lack of provision for hard Brexit means there won't be one.

I fear instead that lack of provision means the 3 Dunces are still ignorant and deluded, all these months later.

If the penny ever drops, we may see a spate of byelections with resignations to "spend more time with my family" or just quietly getting a new job outside politics, while their name still means something.
Or fleeing before they are hung from lamp posts.

I hope Misti is correct that lack of provision for hard Brexit means there won't be one

I have so much respect for Misti, her posts very interesting. She and another poster informed me on the extent of port development, which is something I've been wondering about and couldn't find any info on.
The only hard info I've found was on the IT system.

But, even if we were going onto an EEA/EFTA deal, the recruiting and building should have started, and the same is true of just leaving the single market. So I have to agree that the lack of provision is a sign of fuckwittage rather than a cunning plan. They're not actually prepared for any eventuality.

LH The Brexit diaspora started 24 June for scientists & engineers and has been gathering pace, at least to Germany.
These are among the most mobile professionals, since there is always demand and many firms & institutes have sufficient foreigners for English to be a working language in these fields.

My division has scientists from France, Sweden, Greece, Poland, India, Korea, China, USA and probably others.
All speak fluent English and reports are usually in English.
Now the British are coming ! Well, in fact we have been for months.

Ah, in some ways I wish we could leave the country - I feel trapped, but I also feel trapped by school-age children and ageing parents. If it were just me, I'd be off to Germany like a shot, but DH and the boys don't speak German, and I don't like the school system. DH would be off to Canada like a shot, but it's scarily far away, close to Trumpland, I've never been there, our parents are getting older...

The goverment is in the grip of ideology

Agreed and I have been thinking the same. It's almost a religious fervour, pinning all hopes of salvation to this entirely made-up abstract concept: one which, by its very conception was imbued only with positive characteristics (conveniently variable as desired by the different tribes of adherents).

That's why there has been no preparation - because there can be no downsides to Brexit. Only Good can be acknowledged to come of this, if anything seemed Not Good emerges, by definition this must be caused by Something Else.

I have seen and heard the voices that say the young shouldn't be allowed to leave. They owe us for their education after all

I want to leave, DH is as always rather apathetic so I doubt we'll be going anyway. Well unless I'm forced to pick between my nationalities and may be forced to.

Part of me is terrified at the prospect of all the smart people going but then eventually I will be the smartest person around!!!! I won't do anything with it of course, I'm not that smart but hey

I'm just annoyed this didn't happen 10 years ago when I was a newly minted PhD with no dependents. I would have been out of here like a shot, probably to Canada (Germany doesn't sound much fun if you're veggie). Now I'm tied down and too long in the tooth to be desirable (such is the craziness of the academic system). Plus, I've just switched to a job that is heavily dependent on fluency in the language of the country you work in. DH is now working in a job where many countries have a surplus of employees, so not v transferable either. So we're stuck and I'm starting to panic tbh.

So we're stuck and I'm starting to panic tbh.

Let's hope we don't need to panic. Yet .

If our Brexiter friends are right, we have nothing but Sunlit Uplands and Money-Sprinkling Unicorns ahead (at least for the Chosen Ones) starting on Tuesday. If, OTOH, there was a ring of truth to Project Fear, it is unlikely we'll descend very rapidly into blackouts, looting and eating cockroaches .

So for now, perhaps a calm, several-year-long plan for an orderly departure would be suitable.

I hope Misti is correct that lack of provision for hard Brexit means there won't be one.

It doesn't mean there won't be one - just that it's not May's objective. I don't agree with the people who think that her plan is to sabotage negotiations deliberately and then blame Europe.

Doesn't mean there won't be an unplanned hard Brexit - still a significant risk of that if May can't get net migration down fast enough.

There is something I don't get with all this talk of a "meaningful vote" for parliament. Since under our representative democracy parliament is sovereign, the government are negotiating with the EU on parliament's behalf. Parliament can always decide to change course, or there can be a vote of no confidence in TM. What am I missing?

They don't dare
Too many MPs constituents voted leave - they want to keep their job sinecure more than they want to follow their own conscience!!

Despicable

Just found this in the FT

Allies of Philip Hammond say attacks on the chancellor are being orchestrated by “hardcore” Eurosceptic Conservatives who believe he is opposed to an abrupt “no deal” departure from the EU

Anna Soubry, a pro-Europe former minister, said on Sunday that Mr Hammond was “one of the few voices of reason” in the cabinet.

She added: “It is clear to me that some of the Brexit brigade are trying to pick off Mr Hammond over this issue [of NICs] because he has left no doubt he is opposed to walking away from the EU with no deal.”

Yup.

Too many MPs constituents voted leave - they want to keep their job sinecure more than they want to follow their own conscience!!

Plenty of those who voted Remain represent Remain constituencies. Namely, Nicola Blackwood, Ed Vaizey, old Deadwood Redwood and Theresa Mayhem herself. As far as the Tories go, keeping the party whip is of much greater importance than representing their constituents interests, or following their consciences.

Deadwood and Mayhem are sitting on what look like impregnable Tory majorities. I would like to kid myself that the local by election successes to LibDems in what were previously always true blue Tory seats are a sign of a change in the wind, but I think it is too soon to say that with confidence.

I suspect the FT article is very close to the truth and that there are many voices in the Cabinet baying for a hard Brexit.

Why would May have these people in her cabinet if she didn't share their aims?

I think TM is fully willing to fall off a cliff here.

(Bolshy, I have a cousin in Germany who is a very dedicated Buddhist and yoga practitioner, and 100% veggie..)

Alice couldn't help laughing, as she said, "I don't want you to hire me – and I don't care for jam."
"It's very good jam," said the Queen.
"Well, I don't want any to-day, at any rate."
"You couldn't have it if you did want it," the Queen said. "The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day."
"It must come sometimes to 'jam to-day'," Alice objected.
"No, it can't," said the Queen. "It's jam every other day: to-day isn't any other day, you know."
"I don't understand you," said Alice. "It's dreadfully confusing!"

Lewis Carroll - Through The Looking Glass and What Alice Found There (often misnamed Alice Through The Looking Glass

"Why would May have these people in her cabinet if she didn't share their aims?"

Oh, I don't think she couldn't have had these people after the result. She had to look like she was abiding by the "will of the people" regardless of her own views.

lurking That explains Corbyn

To be fair she could have had anyone. No-one expected Boris back - not even he, hat was entirely un-necesssary. If she'd chosen to frame the narrative that the vote was so close that Remainers' views have to be respected and a compromise found, she could have steered the country to soft Brexit.

Nothing about her course was inevitable.

Nothing about her course was inevitable.

No. I don't think she's clever enough to play games, so what exactly does she intend? Her right wing want Hard Brexit. But this doesn't square with her words about the 'Just Managing', not that she has actually done anything for them.

No, I don't think she could have anyone. Boris, yes, she could easily have sidelined but, she did need to show she was acknowledging a Leave win. There would have been an outcry if she hadn't shown a tilt towards that.

As to what she actually wants, what she stands for, I've no idea.

So....

What have I missed.

I've barely checked twitter for the last week. I feel like I've been on the moon. I fear I have LOTS to catch up tomorrow.

Hi Red!

Hey rtb
Hope you had a very good break

Red What have I missed

Not a lot. A few people preparing to party over their kids' economic graves and reduced rights, come the anticipated A50 trigger by President Snow TM on Tuesday, but that's about all