Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

What the Three Stooges are telling the media, according to the Beeb.

"[David Davis} also said the government was working on "a contingency plan" in case a deal could not be reached with the EU - after a report by the Foreign Affairs Committee said it had found no evidence of serious contingency planning by the government.

The Brexit Secretary told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show he believed it was "not remotely likely" that there would be a complete breakdown in negotiations.

He said: "The simple truth is, we have been planning for the contingency, all the various outcomes, all the possible outcomes. It's not just my team, it's the whole of Whitehall, it's every single department. But, understand, it's the contingency plan. The aim is to get a good outcome."

His Cabinet colleague, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, has told BBC Radio 5 live's Pienaar's Politics: "Certainly it wouldn't be the end of the world if we had no deal, but it would be preferential to have a deal".

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson told ITV's Peston on Sunday "it would be perfectly OK if we weren't able to get an agreement but I'm sure that we will" adding: "I don't think the consequences of 'no deal' are by any means as apocalyptic as some people like to pretend.""

But the loony right (rabid right?) wouldn't be able to vote down the final deal on their own as they'd be very unlikely to find allies among moderate Tories (who hopefully will have developed spines by that stage). I still believe it is about TM's belief in absolute control and her own delusions of canniness.

The 3 Dunces don't seem to understand:
"planning for the contingency" should be "planning for Brexit"

The limited Brexit options deemed acceptable all require building at least some new infrastructure, such as port capacity, but that is not even at the stage of tendering for plans or suppliers - they couldn't keep tendering a secret.

Just seen a comment on a facebook page - if they are only now, after nearly 9 months, getting round to making a contingency plan, how do they expect to have negotiated anything with the EU within two years?

There's no plan, there's never been one and there never will be one.

There's just nearly 3m hostages to be unheld to ransom. That's the only strategy. Always has been, always will be. Human shield.

People are disgusted and people want it to be repudiated, but it won't be. It's the only chip they have and they will play it as long and hard as they can.

I'm not advocating it as the strategy, it's just a description of what is happening.

I made this point on a similar thread not long after the referendum (under a different nickname) and was torn a new one for it. Told that Whitehall would never let it happen, that using EU nationals as a bargaining chip had already been explicitly repudiated as a way forward.

Well, stop being shocked and surprised that the bastards act like bastards.

^^ my thoughts exactly peregrina

I'm so angry that Leavers continue their flag waving, relishing the prospect of A50 being invoked on a Tuesday without seeing the completely obvious fact that we can't sort this out satisfactorily in 2 years particularly as sweet FA has been done in the last 9 months.

"Much of the select committee evidence collecting is, IMO, an act of political theatre aimed at informing the batshit leavers in parliament."

I don't know if you/they can. Not sure you can apply rationality to ideology.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/12/davis-mps-must-choose-between-mays-deal-and-crashing-out-of-eu

I don't know if you/they can. Not sure you can apply rationality to ideology.

Yeah - maybe not so much informing them as much as disarming them.

You're not wrong rose

I wish I could believe this, Misti - Much of the select committee evidence collecting is, IMO, an act of political theatre aimed at informing the batshit leavers in parliament. This whole grotesque political charade is not about brexit at all; it's about how to end up in an EEA/EFTA relationship with the EU without splitting the Tory party in two.

I just don't think there's that level of competence in government at the moment. My MP finally got back to me after months (and after repeated prodding on Twitter) with a load of platitudes about "making Brexit work for everyone", and has since failed to answer all follow-up questions about HOW that can be done, which leads me to assume that there is no plan and no clue.

Now, is this fake news, or the real thing ?

The young are to be forced to stay behind in Brexit Britain to do their patriotic duty for ‘Empire 2.0’, it has emerged.

A senior government source said: “Our plan is to turn the UK into a neoliberal hell-hole run exclusively for the wealthy, while the young are made to work ever harder for less money.”

“This is the patriotic will of the people as expressed in the legally binding referendum we had in June last year.”

“Unfortunately, a majority of young people do not feel the same patriotic fervour as their xenophobic elders, and as a result there is a chance that the young will shirk their patriotic duty”

“Indeed, the Prime Minister is extremely concerned about the prospect of large numbers of young people seeking out a better life elsewhere in the EU, where the young are not made to work as virtual slaves for a standard of living that is lower than the average retiree.”

“Rather than do the right thing, we’re just going to strip the young of their EU citizenship to prevent them escaping Brexit Britain in search of a better life in the European Union. The people have spoken and this is what 100 percent of them voted for.”

(contd) ...

OK, it is fake. But I have (over)heard a few comments that aren't too removed from the sentiments expressed ...

Kind of amazed at the tripe Farage gets away with on the Sunday Politics. He came on without an informed guest or presenter to contend with or expose him in any way. Anna Soubry was repeatedly interrupted by Neil. He did not do the same to Farage. He wasn't even asked to back up his assertion when he said that the UK would be better off with no deal than it is right now. That a bonfire of regulations would be a great thing. It would have been interesting how he got on if he ever had to explain the drivel that came out of his mouth to someone who has a grasp of the subject.

Also, he was asked about the Conservative party and inquiry into election fraud. Very very odd how he wasn't asked about the investigation into his own party in relation to their misuse of funding.

Also on the EU bill post brexit. Shouldn't Neil have asked him if he was going to collect any benefits, insurance or pension in relation to his European Parliament jobbie. Surely he would not have the UK billed for his benefit. Shouldn't he have the EU needn't claim anything on his behalf wrt future payments of any kind.

Had to laugh when he alluded to the word in the corridors wrt fishing rights. It would have to have been heard in a corridor as he doesn't attend many meeting on behalf of the UK.

Yes, and not one question about his trip to the Ecuadorian Embassy for a chinwag with Assange. Extraordinary.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/widow-bereavement-benefit-tory-conservative-cuts-a7625956.html

Whenever the next UK GE is, this is another worry:

GCHQ: Russian cyber‑threat to British elections

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/gchq-russian-cyber-threat-touk-elections-20wl9s5ld

"GCHQ traced the source of hacking attacks on 11 French TV stations to RussiaYEGOR ALEYEV

Spies at GCHQ have called an emergency summit with Britain’s political parties after warning them that they are at risk of Russian cyber-attacks disrupting the next general election.

Security sources say GCHQ now regards protecting the political system from foreign hackers as “priority work”.

They fear that Kremlin-backed hackers could steal and leak internal emails or publish private databases of voters’ political views in an attempt to damage the standing of political parties with the public."

Remember that German intelligence services found that it was Russia who hacked the German Parliament
French intelligence reports interference in their presidential election
The American intelligence services believe that members of Trump's administration have been compromised and that POTUS himself has been cleverly manipulated by Russia.

The intelligence services of the US, France, Germany and the UK, plus whispers from Scandinavian sources, have all warned of Russia hacking.

< I'll listen to the experts of the West's intelligence services, rather than to Putin's online fans denying the Russian hacking >

HSBC consumer survey - OK, it's just based on a sample.
www.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/12/britons-like-vodka-nike-airbnb-survey-uncertainty-costa

This is the bit I noticed.
"HSBC said it was most surprised by the fact that far fewer people are concerned by the impact of Brexit than they are by rising inflation. “We find this intriguing because the two are interlinked in our view, with rising living costs being at least partly a function of the Brexit vote,” said the bank’s analysts. They said the survey suggested that “households have not yet fully identified the link between the Brexit vote and rising living costs”."

I wonder what they'll think when the penny finally drops.

LH Well, someone has to foot the Brexit bill:

Can't be the super-rich or business. They are Tory donors and / or would take their money & business out of the UK

Can't be pensioners. Few would be able to find a job, or have the health for it. They mostly vote Tory, so must be protected anyway.

There are 40-50 years work that can be squeezed out of the young before they drop from exhaustion.
Beasts of burden for Brexit

I keep posting:
Anyone who can move abroad, GO

Will we see a Brexit Diaspora ?

"When the penny finally drops"

It will still be the EUs fault!

If I could convince dh I would be off like a shot! Ds1 is already planning to leave and he
is 13 :(

Much of the select committee evidence collecting is, IMO, an act of political theatre aimed at informing the batshit leavers in parliament. This whole grotesque political charade is not about brexit at all; it's about how to end up in an EEA/EFTA relationship with the EU without splitting the Tory party in two.

Sadly I disagree. The select committee evidence is a desperate attempt to save the country, but it will fail. The Brexit cabal have been told the same thing for the last 9 months, if they didn't listen then they won't listen now. I don't think it will have much impact. I don't think the soft Brexiteers have enough clout.

Nor do I think Hammond will last long - the Brexiteers + DM + the Telegraph have it in for him. They think isn't pro business/ pro rich enough & he's seen as a Remainer. So they are whipping up a frenzy, presumably at the behest of certain Brexiteers.

You're right that Hammond is intelligent and sensible, but in a way that's the problem. He's very much a lone voice in a cabinet of woefully mediocre minds.

It is very clear is that that the Leave population will take a last minute veer onto an EEA/EFTA deal (as opposed to an interim one) as a Tory plot to keep us in the EU. To betray the will of the people yadda yadda..

I don't know if you/they can. Not sure you can apply rationality to ideology

Yeah, I made a similar point a few days ago. We long ago left behind reason, intelligence, practicality, good sense, order, economics.

The goverment is in the grip of ideology which amounts to a kind of group psychosis.

I'm sure you're right, Badders, much of the media will make sure that's the way it's presented.

It won't change the reality of the situation, though, people will still be worse off, some of them very considerably so.

What is the UK going to do, even if a large proportion of the population is convinced it's all the EU's fault? We'll already have flounced off, we can't flounce off again.

Send a gunboat? Boycott EU products? (Mind you, that's supposing we can afford anything but home-grown turnips.)

Complain to one of those European courts?

^^goverNment

Ds1 is already planning to leave

There was a time when my kids might have thought about returning to the UK for university, but for DD (in equivalent Y12 and actively researching courses) it's no longer under consideration. Brexit has done a lot of damage to the image of the UK in the eyes of European teenagers.