Westministenders: Brexit Britain = Gridlock Britain ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

We keep getting told the Uk can get a deal like Canada, Turkey or other non-EU countries have, without FOM.
Those deals do not provide the same privileges as EU members:
They have quotas, restrictions and must obey EU regulations

e.g. After CETA, Ron Davidson, head of international trade for the Canadian Meat Council stated:
"We do not have what we would call commercially viable access to the European market".

The deal with Turkey abolished tariffs, but did not give free acess. This is what that means:

www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

"On a recent Saturday at the Kapikule border crossing, about 30 minutes drive from the Turkish city of Edirne, a line of trucks 4km long stretched along the highway, inching along glacially towards the Bulgarian checkpoints.
"Today is a good day", said Ibrahim Kurtukcu, a 42-year trucker who had been waiting 14 hours.
"Last week the line was 7km long".
The record is 17km. It can take up to 30 hours to get through to the other side."

Of course, UK ports (and French ports) do not have the capacity, facilities, storage space or trained staff to handle customs processing of the vast amount of British exports & imports.

Building this additional capacity - where ? - would take several years and there are no signs that even the planning stage has started.

mother ok, sorry Glasgow Uni! im not apologising for calling him twatface though

I am embarassed to say that almost 40 years ago my 21-yr-old self - a post-grad, supposed to be more mature - attended a debate with PIE (Paedophile Information Exchange) at the Student Union

There was the usual audience of several hundred for interesting debates
We nearly all thought freedom of speech meant we had to invite the bastard and applaud his points politely as we did the opposing speaker (mother of a child victim) < shudders >

We voted afterwards his organisation should have the right to publically express and propogate their views about "relationships" with children < vomits over stupid Young Choc >

We were naive, but thought we were so broadminded and sophisticated about sex.

We were all intelligent & educated - in those days only 6% got to uni - but we did not have the capability then to judge risk that a few years more maturity and life experience brought.

Wrt the Milo thing, I'd much rather that he got to stand rather than not, now that he's been nominated.

Removing him would be no different to the daft 'no-platforming' and banning that goes on these days (the recent Trevor Phillips documentary was an eye opener).

Here's Jonathan Pie pontificating on the general subject:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AOc7ezwcJjI

On reflection, I must say that student Uni debates and organisation then were totally dominated by men - students, staff & guest speakers.
They defined and controlled what was acceptable and cool.

The rise of modern feminism and the awareness that brings of the violence that women and girls suffer certainly changed how I balance the right to freedom of speech with the right not to feel in danger, or to be dominated by the physically stronger / more privileged in society

"PC" constraints arose from our awareness that total freedom for the strong to say what they wish can mean less freedom for the vulnerable.

I think the problem is holding to absolutes:
PIE, Milo and the fascist right are imo on the other wide of "shouting fire in a crowded cinema"

In real life there are shades of grey.
There are constraints on how far an individuals's personal freedom to do as they wish e.g. wrt driving, testing, smoking , playing loud music etc can go before it must be limited to stop infringing on the rights of other individuals or on society as a whole

testing" should be "texting" !

That troll film was good. Everything changes, including what's thought.

If Glaswegian students are as good as they used to be at debate, Milo, who appears to be on his professional uppers, will be in for an interesting time.

DT on May's 'honeymoon' 's sudden end:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/poll-analysisone-seven-conservative-voters-less-likely-vote/
"And nearly half of the British public – 46 per cent – now say they are “less likely” to vote Conservative at the next election – compared to only 27 per cent who are “more likely”. "

And the questionable majority due to electoral expenses scandal.

None of the above are enough to stop the vote on Tuesday, but her mandate is flimsy and getting flimsier.

There is no human right to be invited to speak at a uni
People who study or live and work somewhere have the rights to choose to some extent that goes on there

The rights of all the kids (led by their parents) who kept telling me at school to "go back home, wog" should have been curtailled to allow my rights to an education free from harassment and abuse.

If someone wishes to propogate viewss outside the bounds of civilised society

• e.g. the white supremacists talking about expelling "mud people" or the Holocaust-deniers defending Hitler
• then others have the right to protest against them.

In your own home there is almost total control over whom outside your nuclear family you invite
If someone is offensive, including hate speech, you can certainly ban them - no rights for randoms to be offensive there.

Milo would have the right to hire his own hall to speak, or indeed to stand on a soapbox and speak at Hyde Park corner.
Students are entitled to protest en masse if he speaks at their uni, or to protest against an invitation to him

The rights of all the kids (led by their parents) who kept telling me at school to "go back home, wog" should have been curtailled to allow my rights to an education free from harassment and abuse
Absolutely.

This looks like we have poll tax number 2:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-homeless-voters-obstruction-while-spending-millions-rich-ex-pats-a7623606.html

woman I don't think anyone particularly loved or even liked May.
It's just that 52% thought she was doing what they all voted for - which would be difficult as the wish for more help for those struggling would conflict with losing a significant % of GDP from a hard Brexit.

Also, the Official Opposition - particularly their dreadfully incompetent leader - have shamefully abandoned their duty as a check on govt power - to an extent unparalleled in modern British politics

So, there is no credible alternative govt for discontented voters to choose
They may protest at byelections, but they are likely to vote in the next GE as the polls suggest: i.e. a massive Tory victory

But what about her back benchers? David Gauke is potentially lined up to take the flack for the budget, mess. The tories topple themselves usually.

Depressing as always to read the ill-informed comments btl from those who seem to have no idea about the British constitution and think the Uk has the power to steamroller the EU into capitulation.

e.g. from one poster alone:

"Leave last year meant Leave,
no debate, no court cases
Leave one second after the result"

"all trade with the EU stopped, it would upset the German car companies, you know the ones who killl children with toxic diesel fumes"

The Tories are clever at changing PMs and pretending they are a new and clean choice again.

If the public get angry at effects of Brexit, then May can take the blame and would be replaced seemlessly in the absence of an effective Opposition

Wow, from Hashi's link , Tory GE Election expenses fraud !
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-party-election-expenses-scandal-battlebus2015-david-cameron-theresa-may-a7621731.html

"The Battlebus2015 tour saw Conservative activists transported to 29 marginal seats in the South West, the Midlands and the North of England in the days immediately before the election.

If the activists were supporting local candidates then this expense should have been declared when local parties registered their election expenses.
This did not happen."

Two activists who were on the bus told C4:

"We had leaflets with their name on and rosettes with their name on… [To claim this was a national campaign] is rubbish, absolute rubbish … We were definitely canvassing for the local candidate. will absolutely swear on anything.

“In each area you were speaking about the local candidate and what he wants to do for you, not the big government in London, but what this man who lives here, what he wants to do for you, what he wants to change.”

It's the fraud wot won it !

Hashi Thank you for link. Exciting!

I'll watch the troll link once WiFi is on.

BigChoc We laughed a respected elderly economist off stage at uni [cringes]. We were all raised monetarists and he had some interesting leftie ideas I am so sorry professor.

The Tories are clever at changing PMs and pretending they are a new and clean choice again.

Not always - they struggled after Major with Haig, Howard and IDS - I don't even remember the order. Eventually getting Cameron, who seemed to get on better with Clegg that his right wing Tories.

If the public get angry at effects of Brexit, then May can take the blame and would be replaced seemlessly in the absence of an effective Opposition

Maybe not. Major won a surprise election in 92, when Labour was in disarray. Two years later, Blair appears from nowhere, produces New Labour out of a hat, and maintains tight discipline to get them elected.
Strange things could happen again.

From the Telegraph article : But after the disastrous “omNICshambles” Budget, Mrs May’s extended eight-month honeymoon as Prime Minister is officially over.

Is it? We need to wait and see. It just goes to show how things seem to come along from nowhere almost and cause a derailment. I am quite sure that Hammond thought through his budget carefully, but with the Govt being so taken up by Brexit, they neglected to do a few more strategic leaks and information management to make the NIC change palatable.

That documentary about trolls was very educational. Thank you, Misti

peregrina Changing to a new leader only works if the Opposition is not a sensible alternative givt:

The Thatcher / Major swap worked - until Blair became an obvious PM-in-waiting
Once Blair was PM, he was so dominant that swapping leaders didn't work for the Tories - made worse because the hard right put in their dream leaders like IDS (everyone else's nightmare)

Cameron / May will work - until Labour choose a competent, more centrist leader to become a feasible alternative govt, possibly in alliance with other parties.
AND the public memory of this dreadfully incompetent Labour phase has faded

Looking back to the wilderness years of the Labour and then Tory parties, that process would normally take at least 10 years.
Hence, a Tory govt until 2030, if they exhibit their usual skill & fraud at staying in power

However, a disastrous Brexit AND a feasible alternative govt could shorten that and make a change of govt feasible in 2025 or earlier

Semi If you argue that that avowed misogynist twatface Milo should be allowed to speak would you also disagree with UCL and other universities not allowing Muslim and Christian groups funding and platforms on campus that seek separate male and female areas in their meetings and to not allow female speakers.

For me all cross the line to being offensive as indeed would the Paedophile Information exchange now.

And no surprise that twatface used that new alt reich Nazi rhetoric, "virtue signalling" to try and close down opposition. Nope just standing up for what is right, not far right.....

Tim Martin, the gift that keeps on giving.

"Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin should shut up and pay his taxes
The millionaire boss of the profitable pub chain wants 'tax equalisation' with supermarkets. But that would hurt the poorest in society"

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/wetherspoon-boss-tim-martin-should-shut-up-and-pay-his-taxes-a7622736.html

He wants those who buy food & drink to consume at home (who would include most on v low incomes) to subsidise his customers - and hence help his own profits

I can't imagine that a business serving his dreadful Weatherspoon food would survive on the continent - visualise reaction to a Paris Weatherspoon !
So, unlike many other businesses, he doesn't have the option of moving abroad if Brexit hits him hard.

So, unlike many other businesses, he doesn't have the option of moving abroad if Brexit hits him hard.

He was such a noisy supporter of Brexit - why isn't he embracing the opportunities it will bring?