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Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

OP posts:
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whatwouldrondo · 27/02/2017 09:23

Irene Clennell's case is also in the South China Morning Post app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/2074346/section/71

There is increasing awareness in Asia of how the UK is treating Asian spouses. As I posted before it was raised with me on several occasions whilst I was there recently. It isn't just that the Home Office are refusing Leave to remain, they are not even granting extended tourist visas so that families can meet / spend time together, not even to professionals with careers rooted in their home country. It is difficult to build bridges and relationships when you are a representative of a country that is putting up walls.....

EurusHolmesViolin · 27/02/2017 09:25

Knowing the constitiency well, 62% sounds about right for Gorton. So slightly higher even than the City of Manchester as a whole which of course was one of the most Remain cities in the country. Where are people getting the constituency data, though? The figure on wiki had no citation.

I wouldn't stand in Gorton if I were Paul Nuttall, tbh...

lalalonglegs · 27/02/2017 09:28

I don't think anyone seriously imagines Labour losing Gorton - it's a question of how much it hangs on by. I think swings to Greens/LDs (who had a terrible result there in 2015) are likely. It could be another Stoke in as much as Labour hold but are seen to be quite badly wounded. I hope this is the result as it would, again, undermine Corbyn's position as leader.

whatwouldrondo · 27/02/2017 09:30

Of course, many countries which were part of the Empire will probably be saying, "so what's new?"

What they are saying is that you have treated us this way since the 60s (prior to which Commonwealth citizens had a right of abode in the UK, something that is in the collective living memory) because the balance of power was with the British but now we are some of the fastest growing economies in the world the power has shifted.......

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 09:42

I don't think anyone seriously imagines Labour losing Gorton - it's a question of how much it hangs on by.

So of those 62% remainers, a sizeable proportion are going to vote for Brexit , because of the colour rosette the candidate wears ?

We get the government we deserve.

tiggytape · 27/02/2017 09:45

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Message withdrawn at poster's request.

EurusHolmesViolin · 27/02/2017 10:03

Thanks tiggytape, I had seen that but it's an analysis of the different referendum constituencies in the conurbation rather than parliamentary constituencies. It's also suffering from the north Greater Manchester poor south Greater Manchester rich fallacy, which is an oversimplification. The southernmost seat in both the City of Manchester and Greater Manchester is Wythenshawe and Sale East, which has some stunning levels of deprivation and I suspect is more likely to have recorded a Leave result than eg more well heeled areas of Bury. The most deprived wards in Greater Manchester are to be found in the City of Manchester and Salford, which were Remain and Leave respectively. Trafford is the most well heeled, containing Altrincham, Sale, Hale, Bowdon etc, but their Remain vote was lower than the City of Manchester which is primarily poor. Etc etc.

I don't think Labour will lose Gorton either, but if their majority were to be significantly reduced by eg a vocally pro-Remain LD candidate, clearly that would be significant.

woman12345 · 27/02/2017 10:04

Pleased to see Irene Clennell case whatwouldrondo reported in China.
But it's why I mentioned Anwar Ditta. In the 1980s, mistreatment of Commonwealth citizens at least met with moral outrage, I remember doing sponsored walks round Sheffield for this case.
China and Germany give me hope.
Vielen danken und shay shay! (can't do the script!)

EurusHolmesViolin · 27/02/2017 10:06

Actually on checking, I think Cheadle extends about half a mile further south than Wythenshawe. Point stands though.

RedAndYellowPeppers · 27/02/2017 10:47

The uk is one of the very few countries I know where spouses don't get to stay in their spouse's country.
And where they have happy to rip family apports (when there are also children in the mix).

So no, it doesn't look good at all.

I'm interested by the idea that TM has managed to get some discussions going with some eu countries re their citizens and their right to stay.... I'm not sure this will go down well with the EU either.

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 11:13

I'm interested by the idea that TM has managed to get some discussions going with some eu countries re their citizens and their right to stay.... I'm not sure this will go down well with the EU either.

So ?

All TM cares about is how it goes down with the Tory party. As Copeland has clearly shown, no one else matters.

Motheroffourdragons · 27/02/2017 11:22

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lalalonglegs · 27/02/2017 11:27

Eurus - Kaufman's majority was 24000 at the last election or 67% of the vote. It would be interesting to see what happens if Labour's share drops to significantly less than 50% - perfectly possible as the LDs were given a real kicking there (down to 4% from 32% in 2010 Shock) in the last election presumably because of their coalition antics. A good run for the LDs with a strong remain message would be death by 1000 cuts for Corbyn, surely?

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 11:37

I suppose though it might be prejudicial when she does go to the table to negotiate.

If the past 8 months have taught us anything, it's that she doesn't give two shits what happens in Brexit, as long as the Tory party survives.

With the current message that a stuffed pepper could beat any Labour candidate in most constituencies, there is absolutely no reason for her to do any hard work for Brexit at all.

I recently caught a great documentary about the French Revolution (on ). Some of the themes were depressingly familiar.

Growing up, it was a point of pride that Britain had never suffered a revolution. With hindsight, perhaps a few heads on spikes would have averted the mess we find ourselves in.

EurusHolmesViolin · 27/02/2017 11:37

While he wasn't to everyone's taste, I think Kaufman probably got a higher than average personal vote too. I would say this is ripe for the LDs to gain some ground if they choose wisely. Particularly if Labour don't.

RedAndYellowPeppers · 27/02/2017 11:43

LH im trying to imagine a revolution in the uk.... the french way .... at least that made me smile

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 11:45

the LDs were given a real kicking there (down to 4% from 32% in 2010 shock) in the last election presumably because of their coalition antics

I think with each passing day, it is becoming more clear how hard the LibDems must have been working behind the scenes to prevent the bonfire of compassion we are seeing now.

For example ... Disability benefits should go to "really disabled people" not those "taking pills at home, who suffer from anxiety", a key Theresa May aide says.
No 10 policy unit head George Freeman said personal independence payments (PIP) reforms were needed to roll back the "bizarre" decisions of tribunals." (contd)

The problem with the LibDems, is that they are grown-ups in a childs world of yar-boo politics.

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 11:52

LH im trying to imagine a revolution in the uk.... the french way

The UK appears to be developing it's own third estate Sad

Whilst it would be impossible to expect a winning side not to make hay while the sun shines (or indeed make hate while the May shines), the Tories need to beware of riding roughshod over so many people. When people feel they have nothing to lose, they can become very dangerous - which is the take home message of the Revolution: if you forget the "panem", no amount of "circii" will save you. It's spike time.

LurkingHusband · 27/02/2017 11:54

(or indeed make hate while the May shines)

#makehatewhiletheMayshines ?

lalalonglegs · 27/02/2017 12:00

LH - I just made that exact point to my husband whi just muttered that the LDs brought it on themselves and should have formed a coalition with Labour instead. ..

NotDavidTennant · 27/02/2017 12:02

The interesting contest in Manchester Gorton will be the Labour candidate selection rather than the by-election itself. Given how safe the seat is, both the Corbynites and the centrists will want to get one of their own selected.

SemiPermanent · 27/02/2017 12:13

Thought this was quite funny, so thought I'd share it here too (slowed down, Donald Trump is exactly like the token rambling drunk)...
Also, his hands look suspiciously more shrunken than ever 🤔

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl-RvU-ndjs

missmoon · 27/02/2017 12:14

"And it also looks like she want to restrict the movement of people NOW
EU citizens will instead be subject to new migration curbs that will be put in place. This could possibly include a new visa scheme and restricted access to benefits, the Telegraph reports."

I don't know who this policy message is aimed at, but it makes absolutely no sense to me! Surely (a) this would be illegal while we are still in the EU, (b), if triggering A50 means that all EU treaties cease to apply, then there would be chaos all round (and court cases), (c) presumably the infrastructure re. visa schemes is not yet in place, so again, chaos, (d) this sends a very aggressive message to the rest of the EU.

Motheroffourdragons · 27/02/2017 12:19

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Motheroffourdragons · 27/02/2017 12:21

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