Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

[RedToothBrush]

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

These detentions are giving me that absolute heeby jeebies. So many brown skinned women: teenagers and mums are being locked up. Taken away and locked up before deportation. Most having lived here for years. There have always been test cases, remember Anwar Ditta, any one? But this seems like conscious cruelty.

Thank you for the Urdu, woman These threads are educational

Marshall Aid
"We all know the easy British explanation for our cumulative export defeat in world markets from the 1950s onwards, especially at the hands of the Germans.

This story tells us that lucky West Germany had all her industries and infrastructure bombed flat or removed as reparations, and then was able to re-equip herself from scratch with Marshall Aid dollars.
Meanwhile, so this hard-luck story goes on, poor old Britain had to struggle on with worn-out and old-fashioned kit"

Britain recvd more Marshall Aid than any other European nation, $2.7 billion. W Germany recvd only $1.7 billion.

"The French and German tenders for Marshall Aid resemble today's four-year business plans, being detailed technocratic strategies which give clear priority to investment in reconstructing industry and infrastructure.
However, the British tender, originally drafted by a senior Treasury civil servant, resembled an Oxbridge economist's prolix prize-essay"

Additionally, the Uk govt cadged a loan of nearly $4 billion from the US

Wasted on ludicrous dreams of world power status
a lot of it on the military.

"the Labour Government had sacrificed the modernisation of Britain as an industrial country for the sake of using Marshall Aid to support a world power role "

www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml

How the Uk pissed away Marshall Aid always infuriates me as typical UK delusions of grandeur that wreck the future of ordinary people

Most people don't even know - they think somehow Germany & France robbed us of our rightful share.
No, the fucking idiots who rule us pissed it away

< rustles choc donut bag and breathes >

"But can it really be that there are significant numbers of people in this country who would find a regime like Putin's admirable? Who would be relaxed about the repeal of domestic violence laws for example, and the serial assassinations of dissidents?"

I suspect there are a number of people who don't believe statistics on things like this. "Women are asking for it" etc. I started to mention the Lily Allen crap on Twitter to someone (who's reasonable) and their first reaction was "What's she done now?" So, imagine what other people may think. And assassinating your opponents? "Well, all governments do that don't they? Why should we strive to be better than that when they're all at it?"

Remember how Australia would be gagging to trade with the UK?

www.newstalk.com/Australias-priority-is-to-trade-with-the-EU--Australian-Foreign-Minister-on-the-opportunities-and-impact-of-Brexit

"Australia’s priority is to trade with the EU" – Australian Foreign Minister on the opportunities and impact of Brexit"

"“Our priority is to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union”, Minister Julie Bishop told Newstalk.

“And we see Ireland as a great opportunity for us to work with countries of the EU, through Ireland.”

Much of the economic argument behind the push to leave the EU in Britain was the notion that the UK could be free to do its own bi-lateral trade deals, without Europe having a say over how trade is conducted.

The UK is not free to engage in any official trade negotiations until Brexit divorce negotiations are concluded, and it is no longer a member of the EU.

The Australian government had hoped for the UK to remain with the EU, and a trade working group has been sent to the UK after the vote, but the Foreign Minister said today that Brexit now gives Australia the “opportunity to reset the relationship [with the EU] and enhance our trade an investment ties.”

“We are committed to free trade that is in the interest of the Australian people. It grows our economy; it provides jobs, particularly for young people.”

She also said the current rising tide of protectionism and nationalism in parts of the US, UK and other countries is a “concern” for Australia.

We take very seriously this rising sentiment of protectionism and economic nationalism and intend to continue to pursue an economic agenda that involves free trade. We are pursuing free trade agreements – we’ve concluded a number including with the North Asian giants of China, Korea and Japan.

"We’ll continue with a free trade agreement, hopefully with the EU.”

She said she also sees Australia increasing trade with "countries like Ireland where we have so many similarities and complimentary economies."

Maybe pensioners will lose interest in supporting the Tories ?

voxpoliticalonline.com/2017/02/25/backdoor-bedroom-tax-is-first-volley-in-the-tories-new-attack-on-pensioners/

Currently, the pensioner/pensioner couple in social housing is exempt from the bedroom tax and thus has the full housing benefit paid if they live in a 3 bed property and thus the state pays for two spare bedrooms.

Yet the pensioner / pensioner couple living in the private rented sector has their housing benefit pegged to the 1 bed LHA rate and thus the state does NOT pay for spare bedrooms (unless the 1 bed LHA rate covers the 3 bed PRS rent level which it can in some areas).

Hence on the surface the pensioner living in the private rented sector is discriminated against as in all but a minority of cases and in a small minority of areas they are not allowed paid spare bedrooms which the pensioner in social housing is allowed.

Strangely, the Tories have never explained this anomaly and have only said the SRS pensioner should not be charged the bedroom tax. Yet that is about to change when the LHA Maxima policy comes in as the SRS pensioner will be limited to the LHA rate in general needs or mainstream housing.

Initially the LHA Maxima will only apply from 2019 and to new SRS pensioner tenants from 2016 yet once Universal Credit is fully rolled out it will apply to all SRS pensioner households.

I wonder if the Tory pensioner vote are mostly home owners ?
At any age, those who are reliant to a significant extent on state support are probably a lot less likely to vote Tory than those who are not.
Or be very unobservant.

medium.com/@mikehind/if-youre-asking-how-we-persuade-the-brexity-trumpkins-you-re-asking-the-wrong-question-16bef7837c3e#.q8d2aaocq

I think this is a fairly reasonable assessment. People rarely change their minds through persuasion. And the aftermath of Brexit/Trump has, possibly, led to further entrenchment. I remember IDS salivating on 24th June about "the council estates are out" - the very people he really cares about and his policies haven't harmed at all.

I would doubt many pensioner renters vote Tory, tbh.

www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.kvdmoOyVX0#.chApyQlb6w

Further development in the recent case of the Singaporean lady - not specifically Brexit-related, but this is the face we are showing the world now.

The One that Got Away

David Milliband says he has never known his party to be in such a desperate position.
“I don’t think this is just a repeat of the 1980s. We have to really understand the historic nature of the challenge that we have to face."

"I think that Article 50 needed to be triggered but my fear is that the terms under which it’s going to be triggered will be very damaging"

The One that Got In

"The defining characteristic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership is not his doctrinaire politics and unsavoury alliances with extremists and antisemites, but his remorseless incompetence.
His grasp of policy is minimal and his lack of articulacy is demonstrated repeatedly in parliamentary debate."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-s-plight-5tdl7fkx7

Elements - that's horrifying. What sort of country have we become? I'm truly shocked at what has happened to that poor woman, I hope to God she can appeal and get back. It's appalling. (As her children are adults, I wonder if one of them can "sponsor" her since her spouse no longer earns the minimum amount?)

howabout I am still waiting for my front page apology from The Guardian for the 2010 election.

Elements That poor women.
Deported to Singapore with just the clothes on her back, £12 in her pocket, not even a change of underwear, nowhere to stay.

This govt are such callous bloody bastards

This is May, showing how tough she is, bullying the defenceless
Be very afraid if you are poor or vulnerable, UK citizen or not

All that media crap claiming the UK can't even deport a convicted rapist because he has a cat
The govt just split a real family:
deported a middle-aged woman who has been resident for nearly 30 years, leaving her disabled British husband and her kids behind in the UK

They're still at it is the tragedy EG

There's a fundraiser for the poor woman deported to Singapore here:

www.gofundme.com/bringirenehome?rcid=fc874327a835436ab180b9d5b8ff4776

BigChoc This is where it all came to.

Although Corbyn is a problem for the Labour Party, I don't think he's the problem. I'm not sure what the problem is exactly, but maybe Scotland holds some clues.

The popular narrative is that Labour has been dominant in Scotland, particularly since the Poll Tax made the Tories unelectable there. Once finally in power, the government failed to reward this grassroots support, which then got restless and then moved elsewhere. There's possibly a grain of truth in this, although election results from the past few decades don't quite match this narrative.

This table shows the popular vote in Scotland for Westminster and (since '99) Holyrood elections. Others are not included, so not all totals sum to 100%, of which more anon. I've thrown in the leaders of the national Labour and Conservative parties, and a few key events for good measure.

Callaghan / Thatcher
1979 WM LAB 41.5% CON 31.4% SNP 17.3% LIB 9%
Foot / Thatcher
1982 Falklands war
1983 WM LAB 35.1% CON 28.4% SNP 11.8% LIB 24.5%
1984 Miners' strike
Kinnock / Thatcher
1987 WM LAB 42.4% CON 24.0% SNP 14.1% LIB 19.2%
1989 Poll tax
Kinnock / Major
1990 Gulf war
1992 WM LAB 39.0% CON 25.6% SNP 13.8% LIB 21.5%
1992 Black Wednesday
Blair / Major
1997 WM LAB 45.6% CON 17.5% SNP 22.1% LIB 13.0%
Blair / Hague
1999 HR LAB 33.6% CON 15.4% SNP 27.3% LIB 12.4%
2001 WM LAB 43.3% CON 15.6% SNP 20.1% LIB 16.3%
Blair / Duncan Smith
2003 Iraq war
2003 HR LAB 29.3% CON 15.5% SNP 20.9% LIB 11.7%
Blair / Howard
2005 WM LAB 39.5% CON 15.8% SNP 17.7% LIB 22.6%
Blair / Cameron
2007 HR LAB 29.1% CON 13.9% SNP 31.0% LIB 11.3%
2007 Global financial crisis
Brown / Cameron
2010 WM LAB 42.0% CON 16.7% SNP 19.9% LIB 18.9%
Milliband / Cameron
2011 HR LAB 26.3% CON 12.3% SNP 44.0% LIB 5.2%
2015 WM LAB 24.3% CON 14.9% SNP 50.0% LIB 7.5%
2016 HR LAB 21.1% CON 22.4% SNP 44.4% LIB 6.7%
Corbyn / Cameron
2016 Brexit
Corbyn / May

There are a few interesting points here. First, events seem on the whole to have relatively little impact (or if they do, somewhat delayed impact). Despite the massive unpopularity of the poll tax in '89, voters barely moved between the '87 and '92 elections. The much heralded gain in Tory support following the Falklands war was very limited in Scotland at least (less so elsewhere). Second, the liberals seem to benefit after a war (perhaps as the go-to party for a protest vote, until recently). The 2003 Holyrood election is an interesting case - the main parties collectively polled about 77% of the vote. This suggests the Iraq war as potentially a factor in the abandonment of mainstream parties. There are, however, other factors. Holyrood has a proportional system, so the inaugural election in '99 would likely have been anomalous as people would have been less certain about the impact of their vote, and the list vote makes it a lot easier for minor parties to attract voters. So while on the face of it, the Labour decline might have started back in '99, I would place it at around '03.

The really remarkable thing is the swing to the SNP in '07. This was pre-crash, and right back at the time when Brown was crowing about having broken the boom-bust cycle and having left us in a state of permanent boom. There had been 10 years of increased spending on health, education etc, but by this time Labour were clearly seen as out-of-touch or knackered or probably both. I'm not sure exactly where the various figures in Scotland lay along the Blarite-Brownite axes, but it's fair to say NuLab policies were alive and well in Scotland in this time (and continue to this day under the SNP).

All of which is a very longwinded way of saying that trust in the party seems to have absolutely fuck all to do with who's in charge or headline events. And this I think is the problem with the national party now. The process of decline looks to be spreading from Scotland to England, and I don't think there's an easy way to reverse it. Changing the leader will achieve nothing. Who will they replace Corbyn with? What policies can they put forward without being openly laughed at? No one trusts the party on the economy (even though the global financial crisis wasn't their fault, and Tories have presided over as many recessions as Labour) and no one trusts them on immigration (even though immigration, properly managed, needn't generate resentment). Brexit has forced them between a rock and a hard place - too pro-Brexit and they're not being an opposition; not pro-Brexit enough and they're ignoring the will of the people. Who could walk a tightrope like that? Starmer's given it a good stab, but even though he seems to have political skills that Corbyn lacks, he seems unable to nail any colours to the mast.

I'm really not sure where we go from here. Going back to Scotland, the electoral system at least provided a place for people to go. The 2003 result is really interesting there, making clear the dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, which in retrospect seems to be what the SNP have capitalised on. In England, since the majority of the population has a conservative outlook, why would you vote for anything other than a Conservative government? Only when the one you've got is clapped out, it would seem.

Hey Johnny Foreigner. See this here? This is Open Britain. Good huh? Now fuck off back to where you came from like a good chap.

Arseholes.

Just read all of the Carole Cadwalladr article on Robert Mercer and Cambridge Analytica that Swedish linked earlier. Fucking hell.

Just want to highlight these two horrors again, because I can't quite believe we are proceeding with Brexit on the basis of a referendum campaign conducted in this way:

one third of all traffic on Twitter before the EU referendum was automated “bots” – accounts that are programmed to look like people, to act like people, and to change the conversation, to make topics trend. And they were all for Leave.

And

They hadn’t “employed” Cambridge Analytica, he [Andy Wigmore] said. No money changed hands. “They were happy to help.”

Why?
“Because Nigel is a good friend of the Mercers. And Robert Mercer introduced them to us. He said, ‘Here’s this company we think may be useful to you.’ What they were trying to do in the US and what we were trying to do had massive parallels. We shared a lot of information. Why wouldn’t you?” Behind Trump’s campaign and Cambridge Analytica, he said, were “the same people. It’s the same family.”
There were already a lot of questions swirling around Cambridge Analytica, and Andy Wigmore has opened up a whole lot more. Such as: are you supposed to declare services-in-kind as some sort of donation? The Electoral Commission says yes, if it was more than £7,500. And was it declared? The Electoral Commission says no. Does that mean a foreign billionaire had possibly influenced the referendum without that influence being apparent? It’s certainly a question worth asking.

Hey Johnny Foreigner. See this here? This is Open Britain. Good huh? Now fuck off back to where you came from like a good chap.

Yet on another thread, foreigners who are feeling unwelcome and thinking of leaving are getting sneered at for their allegedly foolish and unjustified fears.

Here is the link again:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage

"The Council has expressed its disappointment that Cornwall is set to receive just £18 million in Growth Deal investment over the next three years, despite being one of the poorest parts of the UK.

...The funding settlement is significantly less than the previous Growth Deal allocation given to Cornwall and falls far short, says the Council, of the investment required if Government is going to ensure that Cornwall does not lose out when European funding ceases as a result of the UK leaving the EU. EU funding currently provides £60 million per year to develop vital local projects such as superfast broadband and business support."

www.businesscornwall.co.uk/news-by-industry/public-sector-news-categories/2017/02/council-shock-at-growth-deal-announcement/

To be honest, I was and am a bit ashamed when my grasp of one of the most beautiful languages in the world, in a country where brainy toddlers are bi lingual, is just counting to 5 and a vegetable, but thanks BCF!

Marshall Aid, a bit like all the lovely EU money which has poured into areas fucked over by the tories has been the only socialism we've seen for donkeys years, but there we are.
www.janes.com (is this company a big deal in Britain?)

Thanks for the links for Irene Clenwell, Misti I'll donate, knew she'd been detained after going to a routine meeting with immigration authorities,(the honest seem to lose out here) and she was caring for her sick husband(carers seem to be easy targets).

Mercer article is great. Fascinating stuff.

Yet on another thread, foreigners who are feeling unwelcome and thinking of leaving are getting sneered at for their allegedly foolish and unjustified fears.

Its easy to sneer when you're sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting lalalalalalalalalala I guess.