Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/02/2017 16:17

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
11
Badders123 · 24/02/2017 14:43

Dh and I are planning private health cover in our budget after 2020
I hope we can afford it by then...we will be looking at £400 p/month at least and that's assuming my dhs and sons asthma will be covered

howabout · 24/02/2017 14:46

The issues in the NHS could be improved overnight by sorting out the care system and increasing funding so that spending per capita on healthcare is closer to that of other major european economies.

Absolutely agree with this Misti and would add train enough health service and care staff and give them secure supportive work environments so we retain them.

GloriaGaynor · 24/02/2017 14:51

I'm very sorry to hear that Ron, it's very sad to read of your friend's experience - I know what a difference it makes to have some independence and be able to get out of your house. It's so unjust.

I don't think many PIP/ESA assessors are doctors any more - they used to be. They now use paramedics - who do a great job on the ground but actually have limited training - occupational therapists, physiotherapists. Even so I don't think you need to be a medical professional to have heard of Thalidomide and its effects.

When the economy was in a comparatively good state I felt there was the potential to reform the system in the future - with a more enlightened government, sufficient public protest etc, but I can't see that happening now. The economic and political climate have changed completely.

GloriaGaynor · 24/02/2017 14:54

train enough health service and care staff and give them secure supportive work environments so we retain them

That costs money though - where's it going to come from? The reason we have so many European staff is because it's cheaper to hire in people who have been trained elsewhere.

Peregrina · 24/02/2017 15:01

Gloria - you ask where the money will come from? It's not necessarily about money, it's the will to pay for it. It could come from chasing large firms for the tax that they cheerfully avoid for example.

No doubt if the Americans wanted us to support them in a war, the money would be found just like that.

howabout · 24/02/2017 15:09

Having dealt with DLA application 15 years ago I can say that almost 100% of initial applications were turned down then and given on appeal - not that different from PIP and not good in either case.

There are acknowledged problems with the PIP definitions and not just the assessors. In consultation with disability groups definitions were changed to take account of technological developments in dealing with physical disabilities. This has generally disadvantaged those with physical disabilities. The quid pro quo was the expansion of the definitions for mental disabilities. A review is long overdue and I believe is planned.

This is another area where technology will continue to impact (eg if personal car ownership becomes a thing of the past due to driver less cars) but the benefit cuts to those with physical challenges are definitely running ahead of technological progress and all too often when technology is there, there is unwillingness to provide upfront funding for it.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 15:20

I've just run the maths on all the constituencies in Greater Manchester to see what might well happen at a GE, with UKIP and Labour both imploding like they did last night.

The results?

An utter blood bath for the Labour Party. Like the stuff of nightmares:

Bolton North East - CON GAIN from Lab
Bolton South East - CON GAIN from Lab (marginal victory)
Bolton West - CON HOLD
Bury South - CON GAIN from Lab
BURY North - CON HOLD
Manchester Central - Lab HOLD
Manchester Gorton - Lab HOLD
Manchester Withington - LD GAIN from Lab
Oldham East and Saddleworth - LAB HOLD (but very close)
Oldham West and Royton - Lab HOLD
Heywood and Middleton - UKIP GAIN from Lab (only possible if Cons don't split the vote too much. Even though UKIP vote declining I think this is still a potentially achievable seat for them)
Rochdale - LAB HOLD (by skin of teeth)
Salford and Eccles - LAB HOLD (but will be close)
Worsley and Eccles south - CON GAIN from Lab
Blackey and Broughton - LAB HOLD
Hazel Grove - LD GAIN from CON
Cheadle - LD GAIN from CON (just)
Stockport - CON GAIN from Lab (in close run thing)
Stalybidge - CON GAIN from Lab
Denton and Reddish - LAB HOLD
Ashton-Under-Lyne - LAB HOLD
Altrincham and Sale - CON HOLD
Stretford and Urmston - LAB HOLD
Wythenshawe and Sale East - LAB HOLD
Wigan - LAB HOLD (just)
Leigh - LAB HOLD (just - room for a good argument about what would happen in a by-election)
Makerfield - LAB HOLD

Note: I don't think turnout or whether a GE or By Election terribly relevant in most cases here. Lab might hold on to a few of the close ones, but for the most part its not going their way. Its about the issue of Labour apathy, Kippers being irrelevant, 2010 LDs going back to LDs from LAB over Brexit rather the CONs actually doing things the voters actually actively want. It is complete divide and conquer.

And I think it could get worse for the Labour before it gets better too. (If it does)

It makes a spectacular case for an early election for Mrs May.

Other seats in the NW are perhaps not as vulnerable as this - and the NE is and parts of Yorkshire are safer than people might think. My gut is the NW, is the most vulnerable looking area. But the Midlands are a mixed bag. I do think there will be quite a few seats in the South of England that are vulnerable for the CONs from the LDs but for the most part its a walk in the park, and they don't have to promise shit to get it. ESPECIALLY if boundary changes are approved.

Labour really need to have a very very serious talk amongst themselves and start being bloody honest with themselves never mind the electorate.

As for Corbyn? Fall on your sword mate. Seriously think about a female leader as women voters are particularly apathetic at the moment. And not someone who has served in Cabinet before.

OP posts:
Peregrina · 24/02/2017 15:33

It's hard to predict what might happen in three years Red, with the volatile situation at present.

I am just reading Frankopan's The Silk Roads (on recommendation from someone on MN). It may just be the way he's written the book, but one thing which strikes me is that one society can be jogging along nicely and something comes to disturb them when they aren't looking. Other societies seem to be in crisis, but somehow the storm is weathered.

I don't think UKIP is quite the challenge that people make out. As for leaders - it doesn't need to be the cleverest person - it needs to be someone who can get the party behind them. Labour could still be a force if they found someone like that.

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 15:34

Going back a bit, but a bit of insider knowledge RE use of unproven therapies in the NHS. We work with health economists and one of them gave a VERY illuminating talk on the use of research in the current NHS. Basically, before Andrew Lansleys utterly halfwitted reforms, many trusts had built up a good relationship with the relevant researchers so that they had a group of people who could review new therapies for them in a systematic manner. This is really necessary as your average NHS manager does not have the required knowledge to review scientific literature (which is not part of their job, after all).

Along comes Andrew Lansley and takes away commissioning from trusts and gives it to GPs. Who know the square root of bugger all when it comes to research. So that link is now broken and many commissioning groups are finding that they are completely out of their depth and unable to properly assess new treatments (not including drugs- those are reviewed by NICE, which I have A LOT of respect for).

If you couple this with the government randomly prioritising disease areas e.g. Obesity and then pressuring CCGs to do something NOW to continue access to funding, then you end up with a situation where CCGs will rush to commission unproven treatments just to show they're doing something. It's a ridiculous waste of money. We need a national framework for these "soft" therapies, regional review is not working.

Great example is exercise for depression. The studies often don't translate particularly well to patients in the NHS yet it's being increasingly pushed as a treatment because it's cheap in the first instance.

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 15:36

And just to restate- I have a lot of love for NICE Grin

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 15:38

I do not have a lot of love for Andrew Lansley Angry

prettybird · 24/02/2017 16:08

I agree with Howabout gosh, that's twice in a couple of days! Grin - NHS doctors are not overpaid relative to their training, alternative professions - and even alternatives within medicine to do private work.

There is potential to abuse that some doctors exploit, by doing private work alongside their NHS work. I think it's more prevalent in England (but don't have the stats to back that up). Where is the incentive to reduce waiting lists if that encourages the same patient to see you privately more quickly (as happened to me re getting my wisdom teeth taken out). There is also no private maternity provision in Scotland as far as I am aware (although there are private companies offering scans and testing).

My dad reduced his hours to 9/11 (it dropped 2 sessions) but that was the maximum he would drop before having to pay his own medical indemnity insurance don't know if that still applies as he's been retired a while now. He did it for work/life balance, not to do any private medicine as he doesn't agree with it.

He probably wouldn't disagree with RTB's comment about medics being paid too much. He often used to comment about the amount doctors were paid being kept artificially high through scarcity, by restricting the numbers into medical school. Leith Brexit, that one is coming back to bite us Sad

The other thing to consider in these years of austerity, is that it is not the top earners who have suffered but the bottom earners. The pay gap between the top and bottom has widened significantly - and continues to widen - over the last 20 years.

Unfortunately, I don't see Brexit stopping that. If anything it will exacerbate it Sad

prettybird · 24/02/2017 16:11

Should also remind people that when the "NHS" and "Lansley's reforms" are discussed: that is the NHS in England. Maybe that's why the NHS in Scotland is performing better although it is by no means perfect Wink

prettybird · 24/02/2017 16:14

(As an aside, I am of an age with the thalidomide generation and my mum was offered it but turned it down Shock)

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2017 16:23

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/02/bad-bootle-ukip-meff-why-does-liverpool-refuse-love-paul-nuttall
"Bad Bootle Ukip meff": Why does Liverpool refuse to love Paul Nuttall?

Wonderful article from a few days ago about Liverpool culture and Nuttall. Not dissimiliar to the class/religion/north-south cultural conversation we've just had.

OP posts:
whatwouldrondo · 24/02/2017 17:08

Pretty My mother too.....

Figmentofmyimagination · 24/02/2017 17:59

peregrina that was me I think. That's exactly what I felt about the Silk Roads.

I can't see any reason why brexit should not be one of those events that seriously knocks us off course - not just the uk however.

I posted earlier about reading jk galbraith's The Great Crash - similarly everyone in 1927-28 was chugging along quite nicely thank you, before being catapulted into 10 years of depression.

One of the most chilling things about the book is that jkg is writing up his account of the crash in the 1950s and he reflects in his concluding remarks that one reason why the world was stabler and much better protected from a repeat depression by the time he was writing was because the staggering levels of wealth inequality of the 1920s and 30s had been eliminated .........

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 18:40

HowAbout I consider the nationalist anger towards German success to be jealousy at the boring swot who keeps winning nearly everything.
German industry has been more productive than UK industry for about a century - even Bojo and Hammond agree on that.

Their football team has been miles better than England's since 1966 too Grin !

Bolshybookworm · 24/02/2017 19:16

Sorry pretty, I should have clarified Wink. I should know, I spend lots of time opening hospitals for clinical trials around the country and am always having to remember that the whole system is different in Scotland, Wales and NI. We get a lot of flack if we forget in our (tbf massive, round robin) emails Grin

howabout · 24/02/2017 19:26

Bigchoc as a proud Scot I have to inform you that if you are playing football at the international level with the aim of winning you are doing it all wrong. Who wants to watch a goalless draw decided on penalties when you can have an action packed 5 - 3 defeat Grin

Good job the London City is so good at providing all the wealth management to keep the German wheels of industry turning and that the UK consumer is so appreciative of their efforts - looks far too much like hard work for Boris and co.

howabout · 24/02/2017 19:38

Really interesting analysis on Manchester Red and in line with my line of thinking up thread. I don't think TM will or should call an early GE. Your analysis is plain to everyone and so will keep Labour on-side for A50 negotiations. If she called a GE and ended up with a 100+ majority then the awkward squad on the Tory backbenches could become much more problematic. The only gamble for her would be not getting a decent exit deal and then having to fight a GE on the back of it and having a GE early wouldn't buy her enough time to solve that.

SwedishEdith · 24/02/2017 19:58

The proposed boundary changes will have a big impact on some of those Manchester seats.

EurusHolmesViolin · 24/02/2017 20:03

Which?

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2017 21:08

Corbyn tweets:
"Theresa May is turning Britain into

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 24/02/2017 21:09

Into??