Westministenders: Tell Boris it should be more Stokenders and Copenders

[RedToothBrush]

FINALLY this is the thread of the Copeland and Stoke By-Elections.
In the next few days we will be subjected to a whole pile of analysis from the media most of which will completely miss the point, and will waffle on about Brexit as if it’s the only issue ever and this is what matters to everyone.

Its bollocks.

This is the ‘Westminster Bubble’ that doesn’t report what is on the ground. It includes the media and the politicians who ran into town for the election, never to set foot there ever again. In one case pulling faces at the local children. In another desperately trying to prove how local he is.
Is it any wonder some think that all politicians are all the same?

You can learn far more about what really matters by reading the Stoke Sentinel and The Whitehaven News than reading The Sun or The Mail, those great champions of Leave. (Fancy that local papers being more relevant to a community than a national ones).

The by-election in Stoke has been a particular display of pond life style campaigning. We’ve had Hillsborough, ‘dodgy addresses’, arrest of a candidate, text messages saying you’ll go to hell for voting ‘wrong’, letters that say that MPs voted differently to the way they did, an activist being hunted by the police for trying to enter someone’s house and then pissing on her property, crying candidates, faked photos on twitter, dodgy sexist tweets from candidates dragged up, photographs with known far right activists, egg throwing and vandalism.

The word that keep coming out? Not ‘Brexit’. But ‘Change’.

What have the main parties in either election really added in terms of positive change?

Tomorrow’s weather will not help matters. The chances are that it will keep turnout down, making those postal votes more important. It will drive out the angry to vote whilst the apathetic and hopelessly disillusioned will stay home. The result will not be decided by the 60%+ of the electorate who voted to leave the EU. It will be decided by a fraction of that.

Someone has to lose. There will be political blood shed. Friday will see the political blame and finger pointing I doubt anyone will get it.
The real story is about how few people will vote and how few people think their vote counts for anything.

Immigrants and ‘benefit scroungers’ are not to blame for this. Nor is it even the ‘cultural elite’. Politicians have a duty to the whole country, to do the best for them all. Not to merely do the ‘will of the people’. Popularism does not help people. It merely starts a runaway train of the tyranny of the majority. You don’t give children sweets because they demand them. You educate children, and nurture them. If they are unaware of real issues, you make sure they learn and you explain why you are making unpopular decisions honestly, rather than feeding them a crock of shit. Because that’s your job as a PM, as MP, as a MEP, as an elected mayor, as a county councillor, as a borough councillor, as a parish councillor. To step up.

We need politicians with the back bone to do the right thing for all, rather than just worrying about their electoral strategy and how to con people to vote for you this time. We need politicians to actually take the responsibility of office rather than see it as a career opportunity.

The issues that matter most to people ultimately are not about the EU. They are not about immigration. It’s too easy to blame on immigration rather than tackle the infrastructure problems of the country and admit where you have gone wrong in the past. It’s easier to drive an hysterical fear of terrorism and cultural values being in danger from an enemy far away rather than look at who is really responsible.

If people don’t think that others are unaware of the problem, and don’t care about them and how they are being thrown under the bus, they are wrong. Plenty of people on both sides of the EU referendum debate get it.

Plenty on both sides don’t and are indulging the fantasy land excuses for domestic political failure.

The question is how do you get that message out, in a way that makes a difference and does change things? How do you break the stereotypes of the stupid and the patronising? How do you get people like the Nathan from Stoke to be heard and to believe in politics. Not believe in Brexit. Believe that politics can help them.

Are you going on £60,000 holidays which you complain about (and then go on three other luxury holidays abroad in addition to that)

No, definitely not like your in-laws, then! A 'push the boat out' holiday for us is one which costs c. £5000, to commemorate a special event, and we save up for.

Copying shamelessly from another website - for those who believe May's speeches about a country which works for everyone, have a look at her voting record and then decide.
www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10426/theresa_may/maidenhead/votes

Peregrina I suspect you are much more like my parents who are actually fairly grounded and don't live in total La la land completely divorced from reality. Though I suspect slightly better off by the sound of it.

I don't think in-laws are alone in this though and are representative of a certain section of the population. My grandmother is not unlike them. The grandmother who likes her own alt-facts.

They don't want to live in the real world. They are quite happy as long as they are ok in their little bubble.

As ever, Ian Dunt nails it:

But for all his personal failures, there was a bigger strategic one Nuttall had committed: he had believed the media narrative on Brexit. This narrative has been constructed almost entirely on the basis of Leave supporting MPs and newspapers. It is their echo chamber. It says that Brexit was a triumph of the left-behinds against the establishment. Like all really convincing lies, there is truth in it. Many voters were trying to give the establishment a kicking and many do feel left behind. Generally, the less well off and less well educated were more likely to vote Leave. And yes, nearly two-thirds of Labour seats - and four-fifths of their seats in the Midlands and the North - backed Leave.

But this account of the referendum is grossly simplified. It has become the only story in town for the simple reason that it flatters the Brexiters to pretend they are fighting some sort of crusade for the disadvantaged. Peel it back and you remember that nothing is quite as it seems. Across the country, nearly two thirds of Labour voters backed Remain. And yes, they did so in the Midlands and the North, not just in London and the major southern cities. Labour voters in the Midlands and the North rejected Brexit by 58%.

That left Nuttall trying to squeeze the Labour vote on Brexit when there really wasn't that much to be gained by doing so. Turns out it only gets you another couple of points. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, who only really started campaigning the other day, actually increased their share of the vote. And so did the Lib Dems, with their resolutely anti-Brexit platform, presumably at the expense of Labour, who despite their victory lost five points. In Copeland, which also held a by-election yesterday, Ukip lost nine points.

How do you squeeze a Tory vote when it has already moved to your position? You can't. There is simply nowhere for Ukip to go. Even Nigel Farage doesn't seem that interested. Most of his reactions to the prime minister's speeches merely involve him stating how happy he is with everything she's doing.

Mil is the type who moans about how many sheets of bog roll you use...

Why do you say its MC mothers exploiting WC, not MC parents. howabout? You seem to be letting the dads off the hook...

Peregrina I was going to comment back when Red made a comment about May's values but the thread moved on. I am the same generation as May too but I think there is a difference between being a Vicars daughter in the South and the parallel values you are taught in church in the North. I am not religious, there were periods in my life when I was but not any longer, but I still absorbed the value that you have to work hard to validate your existence, and that nobody is entitled to a position of privilege. (it's a pain really, with pleasure there is always the ruddy guilt that I am not doing something worthy). I am actually quite conflicted by the idea that my children are going to come into what could be a very large amount of money if we avoid the costs of care in later life (I have had Cancer twice, once with only a 60% chance of surviving and DH has had health problems too so we will be very lucky if we do end up as octogenarians in a care home). I do believe they need to make their own way in life but then saddled as they are with student debt and the fact that making their way is going to be a greater challenge than it was for DH and I, especially post Brexit, then I accept that we should help them. However I have absolutely no problem with that money going to help others or planning for the potential costs of our own care . In a fairer society I would not want them to have that privilege of inherited wealth.

I recall Red saying that May had that protestant ethic but I am not so sure that it is as strong in the South. From friends who are religious I sense that churchgoers in the South are more likely to embrace a sense of entitlement and this manifests itself in more narrow mindedness and intolerance of eg disability, sexuality etc. (Not that the northern church isn't full of bigots too but that is much more likely to arise from a puritanical streak). It is a mindset that is more likely to be Conservative, and comfortable with the direction in which she is taking the country.

Just thinking aloud really, would be glad of another perspective.

But for all his personal failures, there was a bigger strategic one Nuttall had committed: he had believed the media narrative on Brexit.

I have said before - in these threads - that UKIPs greatest triumph is also their Achilles heel: managing to engage the "never voted" contingent. Well, UKIP are starting to see why they were politically apathetic. They woke up; voted UKIP; and now want to go back to sleep. The irony is, if there was any brains at UKIP central, they should have twigged this a long time ago ...

I recall Red saying that May had that protestant ethic but I am not so sure that it is as strong in the South. From friends who are religious I sense that churchgoers in the South are more likely to embrace a sense of entitlement and this manifests itself in more narrow mindedness and intolerance of eg disability, sexuality etc. (Not that the northern church isn't full of bigots too but that is much more likely to arise from a puritanical streak). It is a mindset that is more likely to be Conservative, and comfortable with the direction in which she is taking the country.

The north as a whole is less tolerant of privilege. There is much more of an awareness of poverty - perhaps as a badge of pride rather than a source of shame. You don't say you are middle class in the north in the same way as you do in the south. Being middle class is a dirty word.

Its difficult to explain, but its definitely cultural.

The reason the north voted to leave, I'm sure are ultimately, subtly different to those who are in the south. Most likely on these lines of intolerance of privilege. Whereas Southern leavers are more likely to be actively embracing this privilege. Add a splash of racism, and that's Brexit.

The young MC are also less tolerant of privilege - probably as a result of them being much more likely to be relatively worse off than their parents.

I'm not sure its religious in nature, but more a reflection in historical distribution of class since the industrial revolution.

whatwould and everyone else Thank you for your answers on automation care homes.

We had such a good laugh when our vicar of proper Northern Labour values (miners' strike, etc) was posted in Thatcher's birthplace. I'd love to know how he gets on with his parishioners.

I recall Red saying that May had that protestant ethic but I am not so sure that it is as strong in the South.

She may have a Protestant work ethic but as a High Church Anglican, i.e. the Tory party at prayer, what she lacks IMO is the social conscience of Low church Anglicans, Methodists, Baptists and Quakers for just some others. ( Not that those churches don't have a few bigots - that's just human nature, I suppose.)

I live in Oxfordshire, and know the sort of villages she lived in. There is poverty in the villages, but it tends to be hidden, so I wonder to what extent she was aware of it? Certainly there aren't the large estates on the edge of nowhere with no infrastructure and no work nearby. In some ways, as the daughter of the Vicar, she would have been living in something of a goldfish bowl. In other ways, she would have had a rather sheltered existence, which I think shows.

Found you all!

Thanks Red.

High Church Anglican

When religion starts to bleed into politics, it can drag with it a terrible sense that the poor are poor because of some sort of moral deficiency. After all, they wouldn't be poor if they were righteous, would they ?

Yes, it's a circular argument. Yes it's also a load of bollocks (like all religion). But it is certainly at the core of what enough people believe (and more importantly vote ) to have a bearing on all society.

Eurus Why are Dads let off the hook? The actuality as opposed to the aspiration of our society is that the MC father is the one with the "proper" job and the mother is much more likely to be the one looking for a second career / hobby to balance with childcare. I am quoting from personal knowledge of my area - there may be an Amazonian reverse society elsewhere in the UK but I am not aware of it. There is also a smaller subset of semi-retired middle aged men in the care home sector, but not so much in childcare.

Re the NHS, what it needs isn't a good pay structure, investment and more money. (Appreciate I am going on rant there. This is a subject close to my heart)

What it needs is a compete change of attitude re health.

People have the same sense if entitlement re health that they have on a lot of other subjects (say pensions that we have been talking about).

There is no sense of responsibility. Illness is always seen as 'bad luck' rather than something you can do something about. You've had 5 very bad colds in the winter? That's bad luck/working with chidren or in contact with the public for you. No one will ever mention that actually it shows a slightly compromised immune system and that it can easily be boosted with the right diet and lifestyle. (NOte I appreciate that some illnesses ARE bad luck. But a lot of them, if not most and incl a lot of cancers, aren't).

Then There is this idea that you just need to go and see your doctor and a pill will sort it out. You have type 2 diabetes, lets have metformin but no talk about diet or the risk of having uncontrolled diabetes or the fact you won't know you are hyper on a regular basis. Again there is a total handover of responsibility form the patient to the 'doctors' .
This also includes the lack of real informed consent in the NHS. What you have is a doctor or consultant telling you what will happen to you. Not you could do x and y. The chances of you getting better with X is ... and with is y is ... The side effects of X are a.... and the ones of Y are ... which one would you like?
That sort of talk is supposed to be part of a comsultation but in reality is rarely happening because 'doctors knows best/its hospital procedure/cost issue'
An finally, according to the British Medical Journal, only about 20% of treatments on the NHS are proven to be efficient. About 40% are known tomwither have no effect at all or to maybe be have a positive effect. And that includes a lot of very heavy and expensive procedure down to some medications (such as some painkillers for back pain for example).
Why on earth are we paying for the 20ish% of treatmentbthat are known to be detrimental???

So yes if you want to make the best out of the NHS, then the best step forward isn't to look aft how people work there, the number of beds or whatever reason. This is a very short sighted approach again. You need a whole overall of the system which includes ensuring that people take responsibility for their health. Look at how Singapore is dealing with the issue for example for affordable excellent health care system rather than just banging on about how we just can't afford it and that it's all down to people 'abusing' the system

Excerpted from Stephen Bush mail out today:

Copeland
6.7% swing from Labour to Tory that would see the Conservatives pick up 52 seats from Labour if replicated across the country, a Conservative majority of 114.

Stoke
A two-point swing from Labour to both the Tories and Ukip, which if replicated would mean 15 Tory gains, a Conservative majority of 40.

What does it mean? Well, we'd expect the opposition to fall back from its midterm position at a general election, so it's sub-optimal, to put it mildly. That holds for Stoke as much as for Copeland.

It's worth noting, too, that whereas in the last parliament, Labour consistently underperformed its poll rating in local elections and by-elections, indicating that the polls were wrong, so far, the results have been in keeping with what the polls suggest. They are understating the Liberal Democrats a little, which is what you'd expect at this stage in the parliament. So anyone looking for comfort in the idea that the polls will be wrong again is going to look a long time.

Instead, every election and every poll - including the two council elections last night - point in the same direction: the Conservatives have fixed their Ukip problem but acquired a Liberal Democrat one. Labour haven't fixed their Ukip problem but they've acquired a Liberal Democrat one to match.

As I note in my column this week, the settled view of the bulk of Corbyn's internal critics is that they need to keep quiet and carry on, to let Corbyn fail on its his own terms. That Labour won Stoke but lost Copeland means that consensus is likely to hold.

The group to watch are Labour MPs in what you might call "the 5000 club" - that is, MPs with majorities around the 5000 mark. An outbreak of panic in that group would mean that we were once again on course for a possible leadership bid.

Or that we have no other choice than raising taxes which always send people into a spin.

So Mays voting record shows her consistently voting for policies that would make the life of the JAMs she tells us are her priority, MORE DIFFICULT. And voting against policies that would help them. Why is the opposition not publicly pulling her up on this?

Eleana I am talking about the sort of automation whatwouldron points to in her post about high end care. Taking the argument further if these sort of adaptations were more widely funded in the community then the ability of relatives to care for people in a domestic setting would be far greater.

I have far too much personal experience of this issue at the moment. Lifting and transfer and personal care with the right equipment can take 1 carer. With a lack of equipment it can take 3 strong good natured carers with unlimited time and patience, or far too often not happen at all.

Instead, every election and every poll - including the two council elections last night - point in the same direction: the Conservatives have fixed their Ukip problem but acquired a Liberal Democrat one.

I agree with this statement. They have fixed it by becoming BlueKIP.

Labour haven't fixed their Ukip problem but they've acquired a Liberal Democrat one to match.

I don't think it's as clear cut as you make out. On the whole, they seem to be holding off UKIP, and going back to December have only lost a couple of seats to the LibDems.

Red Peregrina The Northern village of about 3000 I grew up in during the sixties had four thriving churches, Anglican, Methodist, Baptist and Elim Pentecostal, with the Methodist church being the busiest, and as children we all attended one or more. All aspects of community life were tied up with them and they were as central to village life and culture as the estate, the mills and the quarry. I doubt they have that role now in the commuter suburb it has become and I am sure it came down through family as well but I don't think you should underestimate the power those churches had on forming the attitudes of the older generation. I totally agree that the resentment of southern, and specifically London, privilege was a very strong factor in the northern vote, in fact took on the same status of badge of honour as being proudly working class.

Completely agree re NHS and people taking responsibility for their own health