Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

BCF Fox, what a *, I remember that Atlantic Bridge article you posted a while back, explains the last 7 years' machinations, in tory/banks party.

Blimey, even The Spectator thinks Blair may be right on Brexit .

They're waking up to the reality of Trump. In a way, he's helping Remain's argument as no-one - no-one - sane would want to be basing their foreign or trade policy on anyone as dangerous and unpredictable as Trump.

Just having a look at the full report behind that BBC article

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0038038513481128

Its like a guide to Brexit.

There are maps of where each of the classes live.

Several of the charts are revealing too.

If you are a stat head or interested in the sociology of Brexit - its definitely worth having a good look at.

Blair. The Voice Of Sanity.

This is Brexit Britain.

Meanwhile at the UKIP Spring Conference.

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/02/ukip-campaigners-say-christians-are-committing-treason-against-god-if-they-dont-support-brexit/
UKIP campaigners say Christians are ‘committing treason against God’ if they don’t support Brexit

No its not as bad as you think its going to be. Its far far worse. The Tea Party of 'Christian Soldiers' has come to Bolton

Farage has also been saying that UKIP pretty much MUST win Stoke.

Paul Nuttall had a snowflake moment and cried over the Hillsborough stuff and and Farage said he'd tried to join Hillsborough campaigned but was not allowed to join for political reasons.

Then he nipped out the fire exit to avoid questions from the press.

(Guess what the reaction to this has been.... Hillsborough Groups are not happy bunnies)

Yes. I didn't like Blair in 97 (despite the cathartic toppling of the tories). I couldn't have detested him more in 2003. But he is indeed the voice of sanity now. Strange times.

That UKIP stuff is properly nightmarish.

If you are a stat head or interested in the sociology of Brexit interesting read, red skimmed it but certainly food for thought for party strategists. And, again, I know you disagree with Blair, which is fair enough, but he totally got the changing demographic he had to go after to win in 1997.
The cultural capital chart are quite funny really,with fish and chips at one end and classical music at the other( not mutually exclusive I would argue!). I think the precariat category could have covered way more jobs and incomes, and couldn't see any mention of zero hours contracts, and the gendered and racialised way those are doled out, or that jobs with decent conditions and holiday and sick pay often go to white men. I think class and income in UK is hugely defined by gender and melanin now.

Weeping nuttells, words fail me, in the olden days, he would have been given something to cry about.

Have you noticed the pro strike ad on mums net?
www.mumsnet.com/bloggers/blog-of-the-day
Times they are a changing.

Front Page of tomorrow's Times. Main headline: Housing Market Slump

Oh I don't deny that Tony Blair totally got how to win an election.

The trouble was that you can see turnouts in elections also peaked in 1997 in certain areas.

I'm blocked by Times paywall but got this too:
^Blair calls for cross‑party movement to stop Brexit
Tony Blair has called for a cross-party movement to fight Brexit admitting that the “debilitation of the Labour Party” he once led had become a “facilitator” of Britain’s departure from the European Union. In a keynote speech in the same London location where David Cameron announced his plan to hold an EU referendum^
So it appears to be a 'thing' now.
Prices going up, jobs going, racist attacks, MPs scared to vote, and house prices going down appear to be a 'thing' too.
And what Swedish said about that press conference yesterday.
Cultish behaviour from a demagogue addressing his own, doesn't bode tremendously well for long term trade deals.

"Tony Blair has called for a cross-party movement to fight Brexit "

Jo Maugham tweeted something this week about stuff going on behind the scenes about a new party emerging - early days, but stuff. There's a huge number of people who feel very disenfranchised and they're people who do go out and vote.

Friday night cartoon

Kaija: this is just daft/trump accordion thing:

Swedish I missed that. What did Maugham say?

There is a huge number of the electorate who currently feel homeless for whatever reason.

Red - just had a quick scroll through his replies but couldn't find the tweet. But, it was pretty much that.

It has long been rumoured that Blair closed down his businesses in order to fundraise for some sort of political movement. But so far only Richard Branson admitted to support him. My understanding was that he and Mandelson were not meant to be the face of their movement, but desperate times...

Just to start another bunfight I have a lot of time for Mandelson as well. The Real PM was one of my favourite political documentaries.

Swedish I missed that. What did Maugham say?

I believe that the is a huge percentage of the public who feel politically homeless right now.

I think UKIP are in serious danger of imploding in the next couple of months. A win in Stoke might not stop it either. I think they are going to have a big problem with the EU investigation. They already are being asked to pay back money. Long term what happens to how they finance themselves. It is looking a lot like they have abused the EU system to finance themselves.

Nuttall is not in Banks good books. Nor Farages. Carswell didn't show for spring conference. There is loads more infighting going on. At some point soon it will come to a head.

It will be like a phoenix company after bankruptcy but I'm not sure how it can make itself relevant still. Westminster / leave.eu have limited window of opportunity and being tarred with certain reputations is unlikely to help the break through they need.

This talk of a new centre party has been around for a while. Is labour prepared to split

It would not surprise me. Blair's intervention a week before the by-election is interesting timing. He is well aware of the public's attitude to him. Unlike others he's more aware that certain current political science. His toxicity could effect the result of the by-elections

Labour responses to Blair are interesting. They seem defensive and afraid of his intervention.

Ask yourself, what would suit Blair's agenda better - Labour holds or loses?

I'm still sure the LDs will do better than expected. In Copeland if voters perform to the script you would expect them to get between 7 and 10%. More than that would be a shock. It would not be just at expense of Con as well as Lab. Everyone is more interested in the Lab squeeze, but the con one shows up the swing centre. The Blair - Clegg - Cameron voter. They have proven power to change the political direction of country. Banks likes the tag cultural elite. Lanny, Clegg and Soubry are his swamp. Same arch of politics. That's why watching the LD performance is so interesting. I'm not sure they can pull it off in present form due to the coalition but it's not all played out yet.

Stoke is the more dramatic of the two but Copeland will show a lot.

There is going to be a storm on Friday. How is that storm brewing? Who is positioning where ahead of that? Blair speaking today was timed. Just as Farages poster stunt was the Thursday before the referendum.

Watch out for who blinks first this week and sets up fall guys and excuses ahead of the fact. Every party will have something of an idea of how well they feel it's going ahead of the vote. Who is smiling? Who isn't? Body language says a lot and feeds others responses...

www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-false-hillsborough-claim-on-paul-nuttalls-website-is-cos?utm_term=.mkgAYlA2n#.jilpvopAa

Btw para from above buzzfeed article

Dean Bible, walking through Bentilee's central shops, described himself as a die-hard UKIP supporter who had become more interested in politics over recent years and would vote for the party at any opportunity.

The problem was, he had no idea there was a by-election coming up until he was informed by BuzzFeed News and no one from the party had contacted him to canvass his vote.

Put into context with my comment about why I thought Banks was being as outrageous as possible about Hillsborough:

Trying to turn a negative into a positive by getting even more publicity about it.

People who are not as politically engaged are less likely to vote. Making hype, means they talk about the election and become engaged. UKIP are primarily trying to target people who just don't vote and are the less politically engaged. He might get a lot of those people outraged, but those people were not going to vote anyway, so he's not lost. He might get the odd hit where that person suddenly has an interest in the by-election they would otherwise not have.

Peter Daou @peterdaou

1. A thread on the danger of treating Americans as a monolith in the Trump era. They are not. Over-generalization dilutes opposition. (1/16)
2. Pundits, reporters and political observers talk about "the people" or "the public" or "Americans" reacting to Trump's wild provocations.
3. But it is essential to understand that various factions view Trump through distinct lenses. There are different American "realities."
4. Five major factions to consider: Trump supporters. Republican leaders. The anti-Hillary left. The news media. The Trump opposition.
5. Trump supporters run the gamut from fierce loyalty to tepid acceptance. They are "informed" by Fox/Hannity/Breitbart/Limbaugh/etc.
6. Loyal Trump supporters DO NOT SHARE THE SAME WORLDVIEW his opponents do. They are not alarmed by him. Rather, they are encouraged.
7. Tepid Trump supporters may waver, but they still perceive "libruls" or "libtards" as the enemy, not Russia. And they despise the media.
8. Republican leaders are another important faction. Most know what Trump is doing is NOT NORMAL and undermines our Constitution and values.
9. But GOP lawmakers think they can "contain" Trump to advance their rightwing agenda. It's a craven and dangerous game that they'll regret.

10. The anti-Hillary left is a small faction but a loud one. They helped elect Trump and are not seen as allies by marginalized communities. 11. The anti-Hillary left continues to be a destabilizing influence, driven mainly by unchanneled rage (and guilt) from the Dem primaries. 12. The news media occupy a unique space. Their horrendous Clinton coverage during the election gave us Trump. But now they check his power. 13. Absolving the national media for smearing Hillary is unnecessary. It is a burden they must carry as they defend themselves from Trump. 14. The biggest US faction is the Trump opposition, including activists who call themselves #TheResistance. Trump opponents are the MAJORITY 15. Trump hates being reminded of Hillary's popular vote margin because he knows MORE PEOPLE OPPOSE HIM THAN SUPPORT HIM. That's real news. 16. In conclusion, it is crucial to distinguish various factions when thinking about how to deal with Trump's threatening words and actions.

UK different. But not wholly dissimilar. Hard Brexit different to general leave support.

Up pops Blair.

Is Blair a stalking horse? If so who pops up behind?

Ah, the lefty meltdown. I love the smell of self righteousness in the swamp. You reap what you sow. And you sowed a whole tonne of pissed off, so much so that the pissed off don't give a shiny shit about the real cost of brexit, they just don't want to see your sad and sincere faces any more. Bliss.

hahaha, he is a pain in the ass but spot on. The bleeding heart liberals do fuck all but tweet about the concerns of the masses.

"2. The news media occupy a unique space. Their horrendous Clinton coverage during the election gave us Trump. But now they check his power." Eh?

Horrendous Clinton coverage? Are you actually serious? She stole from poor old Bernie and everyone loathed her but suddenly it's saint Hillary? There are more dead bodies in her political career than Putin. What exactaly is the line that you guys won't cross?