Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

Isn't this what Banks and May want?

lalalonglegs, don't get carried away.

Stoke is not Liverpool. DH is of the opinion that lots of people in Stoke will be more of the Arron Banks mindset rather than the Echo one.

Also if you follow the logic of those who think there is no difference who they vote for, they will always be shafted, then the anarchy logic is still to vote for UKIP as it simply pisses off people who are not suffering off. Its a share in my misery type logic.

Then there are the out and out racists who won't be bothered because the racist ideology is more important.

I hope that Stoke proves itself to be better than that, and I think there are plenty in Stoke who are nothing like the stereotype who will want to prove that, but I don't count on it after everything that has gone on lately.

The elite don't build their own fucking furniture.
The term 'the elite' has been redefined, didn't you know? 'The elite' now makes up almost half the population of the UK. Well, 48% to be precise. Furthermore, 'the elite' is now, apparently, exclusively 'liberal'.
You couldn't make it up. Except they did.

As a working class girl brought up in poverty I do so LOVE being called one of the "elite" by privately educated oxbridge graduates
🤔🙄😡

I think a Tory win in Stoke is quite likely given the UKIP performance. Read an interesting piece by Prof Curtice on the Labour North Brexit problem. His assertion was that since even here Labour voters were majority Remain it would be possible for them to win with a Remain strategy. Stoke imo is a good example of why this is not the case. He is failing to take account of what happens if a sizeable percentage of the UKIP vote goes Conservative and the Labour vote splits between Lib / Dem, UKIP and even Conservative. In 70% Brexit Stoke a Remain strategy only gives 30% of voters to play for and at least 15% of them are already Lib/Dem or Conservative and unlikely to desert over Brexit.

ukandeu.ac.uk/is-labours-brexit-dilemma-being-misunderstood/?platform=hootsuite

I take your point, RTB, but the only article I read about it yesterday was the ST one in which Camilla Long was pretty convincing (and funny) about Ukip having lost. It's only a sketch but she seems to have struggled to have found a groundswell of support for him and she describes the multiple personae (tweeded country gent/academic/professional footballer) Nuttalls has rolled out recently before concluding:

As far as I can see, he has now simply resorted to copying Nigel Farage - vanishing, dissembling, avoiding the question and squeezing out fake tears for ratings. This assured performance will inevitably end in the ultimate act of Farage imitation, namely, losing an election.

There was an excerpt from an article someone posted a few days ago in which a self-proclaimed die-hard Kipper in Stoke claimed not to know that there was a by-election going on. It says quite a lot about the party's organisational abilities (and perhaps something about their voters...). I think Stoke is a lot better than the commentariat have been portraying it and I also believe Stoke voters are canny enough not to vote in a Kipper which would further blight their town's reputation.

"Stoke imo is a good example of why this is not the case."

I think Labour could win with a centrist soft-Brexit strategy. At the moment, they are losing voters from both sides of the debate.

I watched SS-GB. Over on tellyaddicts we are talking about how irritating the mumbling is and we have to put the sub-titles on. Once you could understand the dialogue, it was easier to follow.

I can't help thinking that if we had been occupied, we would have tried much more strongly to integrate, so that we couldn't go to war as easily.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/20/inner-brexit-circle-theresa-may-is-playing-it-close-amid-government-tension?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Inner Brexit circle: May is playing it close amid government tension
PM limits discussion of latest Brexit twists and turns to small group as some in cabinet try to pull her in opposing directions

Lets play a game of spot the unelected official

I agree missmoon but I think as a Brexiter my definition of soft Brexit and that of the average Remain supporter would be very different.

Red I think the complaint is more that there are fewer than usual unelected officials being consulted surely?

Nuttall is perfectly qualified to lead a party of xenophobes, racists, sexists, fraudsters, fantasists and - above all - authoritarians

Ideal authoritarian policies for UKIP supporters:

. He supports capital punishment - oops, miscarriage of justice, need to unhang someone, oh ...
. He supports torture & Trump' statements on this
. He has supported (still does, I bet) nhs privitisation - yes you did, no I didn't, well I did but ...
. He wants to cut abortion limit to 12 weeks - he belongs to SPUC
. He opposes LGBT-inclusive sex and relationship education in schools
. He demonises victims harmed by the state, when the police or armed forces act badly

Is all that shit really attractive to Stoke, or haven't they noticed what UKIP peddle ?

That plus the lack of involvement from elected ones howabout.

I can't help thinking that if we had been occupied, we would have tried much more strongly to integrate, so that we couldn't go to war as easily.

I suspect any Nazi occupation would have been a breathing space for the Reich to develop their A-bomb to keep the US in check. They had direct close access to the Eastern seaboard, and through Japan, indirect access to the Western coast. It would have been entirely possible to launch a rocket from a submarine to drop an A-bomb somewhere to make a point.

It's also worth noting that in the event of a UK occupation, there was a network of agents like the SOE. Who - and no one has ever contradicted this - given a list of UK nationals to assassinate. Starting with the person who recruited them.

"Time Team" uncovered one of their hidey-holes a while back.

I agree missmoon but I think as a Brexiter my definition of soft Brexit and that of the average Remain supporter would be very different.

How so?

As far as I can tell, there are really only broad 3 options that are achievable in the A50 timetable:

• remain in SM presumably as EEA member (flexcit/ soft brexit approach)
• remain in EU customs union - retains free trade in goods, but not services or FOM (somewhere in the middle; "flaccid brexit"? UK still subject to ECJ, can't negotiate own trade deals)
• hard brexit on WTO terms

If either of the first two is picked as a transitional state - and is agreed to by the EU27 - it could presumably eventually lead to a FTA which would fall somewhere between the second and third options - but that is likely to take 5-10 years to negotiate and implement.

Is all that shit really attractive to Stoke, or haven't they noticed what UKIP peddle ?

But how many people who vote Conservative/Labour know what they are voting for either ?

"I agree missmoon but I think as a Brexiter my definition of soft Brexit and that of the average Remain supporter would be very different."

The whole point is that a soft Brexit has to appeal to a large chunk of Remain supporters, so it would have to be something like the Flexcit approach.

I suspect any Nazi occupation would have been a breathing space for the Reich to develop their A-bomb to keep the US in check

At the time the book was set none of the US, Russia or Japan were in the war. So how likely would they have been to develop an atom bomb? I think Germany's main thrust, once it had subdued the UK would have been, as was the original plan, to move eastwards.

Anyway - it's fiction, in that case.

So how likely would they have been to develop an atom bomb?

Officially, we'll never know.

Unofficially, it's something the UK and US were very conscious of

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_heavy_water_sabotage

Fortunately for the Allies, the Nazi cult of personality (back to Trump) meant that Hitlers "feelings" took precedence over fact. This was certainly the case when Konrad Zuse beat the US and UK to developing a stored program computer. Hitlers insistence that the war would not last beyond 1943 meant longer term projects were sidelined. There's also the fact that an awful lot of the physics and maths needed for nuclear science was distinctly Semitic in origin. (I'm reminded of the scene in "Raiders of the Lost Ark" where the Nazi officer is "uncomfortable with this Jewish ritual" )

It may stick in the UKIP craw, but one view of post-Dunkirk UK WW2 military strategy was "hold on till the Yanks get here".

Theresa May is in Stoke.

Only one reason for this....

Cons down to 8/1.

In Stoke Central.
Yesterday they were 50/1 with some bookies.

There's also the fact that an awful lot of the physics and maths needed for nuclear science was distinctly Semitic in origin. (I'm reminded of the scene in "Raiders of the Lost Ark" where the Nazi officer is "uncomfortable with this Jewish ritual"

not quite sure what this means?

How so? Misti's options 1 and 2 don't amount to Brexit for me. My soft version would be outside single market and customs union but with preferential trade agreement with the EU thus allowing UK to negotiate trade arrangements with non-EU countries. End FoM but still have fairly lax rules on FoM for work and study.

Misti, running with your descriptors :

I would be happy to remain soft or flaccid as a transitional measure only - until a hard state can be achieved.

For me, the ref was the beginning of the process towards complete independence.
And, should the EU direction change significantly, that may mean that it is not so odious to maintain a flaccid state after all.
(But I honestly cannot see that it will, hence my vote to Leave).

Alternative theory to CONs potentially winning Stoke:

Matthew Woods ‏*@MatthewPWoods*
Theresa May is in Stoke because she wants to beat UKIP for second place with the dual benefit of neutralising them, and keeping Corbyn!