Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

Point still stands that it is an opportunity for whoever takes and it does matter in terms of tipping points. It also depends on where that ukip support came from originally. Is it ex labour mining types or from the Tory vote? Or the 'left behind'? If the Conservatives say brexit but what they do with the other hand is bad for those voters, it won't stick. Not in the long term.

Trump and Brexit are partially the result of ignoring mining communities. Again, Thatcher played a blinder there, knowing as she did how class and snobbery work in England.

I was in Lanarkshire, Wishaw, during the strike. Striking miners were amongst the most learned, stoic and politically informed group of workers I have ever met, and united in integrity. It would be a mistake to make political assumptions about this demographic, favouring any party.

capx.co/tony-blairs-denial-wont-change-the-referendum-result/

Much as I hope Thursday is some great turning point against hard Brexit, I believe the scenario I've outlined above is as likely as any scenario that leads to a build up in support for soft Brexit.

I think this is spot on.

The turing point against hard brexit, if it comes at all, will not be until the second half of next year. By this time, it's likely that net immigration will have fallen sharply, and it's also possible that we will be seeing some negative impacts as a result of loss of business confidence and sterling depreciation. Assuming that the French and German elections do not produce hard right shocks, and that negotiations with the EU turn out to be as complex and as difficult as most of us here expect, then we may see the government and its media friends slamming on the brakes to avoid going over the cliff.

This scenario is dependent on a lot of things, including what happens in the US (can the dollar remain this strong if the administration remains in chaos?), and how much momentum the economy has. Despite what Trump and others would have you believe, the US, UK and European economies are all doing quite well and an economy is a very large ship that doesn't usually turn quickly

That is how I see things playing out NotDavid. That is why I don't see any logic in pushing the Lib / Dem rerun the referendum position for Remain or TB and co. Much better to support what JC and co are trying to do and push for a brexit which looks as similar as possible to the Remain and Reform agenda. Also has the advantage of presenting a united front to the rEU, which is much more likely to achieve the desired position.

I haven't a clue who capx is or are.

However, it does say
It’s been 10 years since he was prime minister. Did James Callaghan give speeches in 1989? If there had been 24-hour news then, would we have expected a whole morning to be devoted to what he said?

The answer to that would have been No. So what made them give such coverage to Blair, and why did it get Johnson and IDS so rattled? It can't be the Iraq war because they were all in favour of that.

I don't think they are pushing for a rerun of the Referendum. I think they are trying to get a vote on whether no deal is better than a bad deal, and if so, have the option of calling it off.

peregrina Because msm controlled by the elites maybe?

Because msm controlled by the elites maybe?

Elites such as:

Mr R. Murdoch, supporter of brexit and Trump
Mr P. Dacre, supporter of brexit, famously hostile to high court judges
Mr R. Desmond, supporter of brexit and funder of UKIP

Do you really believe their published position tallies with their personally held position?

^Pro-EU politicians must show courage to oppose Brexit, says Mandelson
New Labour architect and peer says the government’s pursuit of leaving the bloc at any cost must be challenged
His comments come amid reports that up to six Labour peers are thinking of giving up the party whip in the Lords and may unofficially follow the Liberal Democrat whip because of the party’s support for Brexit.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/19/pro-eu-politicians-must-show-courage-to-oppose-brexit-says-mandelson

www.open-britain.co.uk

Open Britain's next campaign day:
March 11th day of action -
www.open-britain.co.uk/day_of_action pledge to volunteer now:
OUR NEXT NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION WILL BE ON SATURDAY 11TH MARCH. ARTICLE 50 WILL BE TRIGGERED IN MARCH SO LET’S MAKE OUR VOICES HEARD BY TAKING TO THE STREETS AND CAMPAIGNING AGAINST A HARD BREXIT.
PLEDGE TO CAMPAIGN BY SIGNING UP TODAY!
sorry about the caps, it's as it is in the promo stuff, at least it's not at end of March.

Oh dear, if we are reduced to depending on Corbyn for EEA / EFTs Brexit ..
He's a national joke !
Glad we've still got our sense of humour on this thread

One opportunity on Thursday is that if Labour lose, then Corbyn may step down as Labour leader.
Then someone competent at being Opposition Leader can take over and fight effectively for a Soft Brexit.

"Do you really believe their published position tallies with their personally held position?"

What does this mean? You think Murdoch et al privately support remain?

You remember what Murdoch said when asked why he was against the EU:

"When I go to Downing Street they do as I say. In Brussels they take no notice"

Looking forward to that sovereignty.

Do you really believe their published position tallies with their personally held position

Well the post referendum bombing of the pound was useful for some..

Sky will cost Rupert Murdoch $2.5bn less after Brexit vote

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/12/sky-rupert-murdoch-brexit-vote-21st-century-fox-eu-referendum

The reason why I think we are unlikely to see A50 revoked is that May & the 3 Dunces would have to realise that the Brexit deal / disorderly ezit will be a disaster
AND be prepared to publically state this.

Voters won't believe or accept such news from Remainers or the Labour Leader alone - even if drippy Corbyn has been replaced.

May would have to inform the new labour Leader and then they would agree jointly to revoke.
That would only happen if a MASSIVE economic disaster is imminent and I think Brexit will be bad, but not quite that dreadful.

And all this has to happen sufficiently early so the E27 can reach agreement to accept revocation.

Murdoch may back Brexit personally, but his newspapers were split - Sun was Leave, the Times and Sunday Times were Remain. Reader demographics were the most important factors in the newspapers' stances.

The Sun's circulation is far greater than the Times. Agree on demographics.

@michikokakutani
Hannah Arendt on totalitarianism, suppression of a free press,
& the danger of lies.
1978 interview via @nybooks (link: www.nybooks.com/articles/1978/10/26/hannah-arendt-from-an-interview/) nybooks.com/articles/1978/… …

May doesn't need to attack the press here because.................

Mass lobby for the 3 million tomorrow.
www.the3million.org.uk/masslobby

Trump Fake News ... again !

Remember KellyAnne Conways's recent invention of the US "Bowling Green Massacre" - which never happened - to blame Muslim refugees ?

In a speech to thousands of people, Trump cites a non-existent Muslim terror attack in Sweden, saying emotionally:

"Sweden, who would believe this?"

He may have been confused by a suicide bombimg on Friday that killed 85 .... in Pakistan !

Well, Sweden - Pakistan - similar countries really ?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/19/sweden-trump-cites-non-existent-terror-attack

What happens if he gets confused again and thinks China has launched nukes ?

I'm even being politically ecumenical here liberal democrats action:
www.libdems.org.uk/europe-day-of-action

BicChocFrenzy words fail me with El Presidente. What seemed like a good chance to get his family out of debt, seems to be turning into a bit of a pickle. Mattis must be praying for diplomatic patience from so many countries.

woman very interesting read

What makes it possible for a totalitarian or any other dictatorship to rule is that people are not informed
By for example, convincing everyone that news in newspaper are often false or unreliable (or experts cant be trusted)....