Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

Re Blair. I was eighteen when he won. I was over the moon. Delighted Portillo went. In hindsight what policies he followed in principle not bad. Implementation was problematic at times though with long term consequences. Iraq would have happened with Tory government. I'm angry about how public investment was paid for as it was short termination in vision without consideration of the long term problems. And targets a disaster though I think on paper makes sense and it's only after trying that you see the flaws and this is much more difficult to have predicted. The trouble is that lesson was not learned and has been copied in other areas of government by subsequent governments.

Something in the air and I'm sure it includes the Lib Dems.

Thursday is a big deal.

The Lib Dems are not unhappy about Stoke. DH knows quite a few people locally. Whisper he hears is LD think they can do a lot better than expected. Yes echo chamber and it depends on what other echo chambers do, but the LDs feeling positive in Stoke is not something you might expect. This is Stoke. It's hostile ground for the LDs on paper. Its not necessarily enough to win but could be enough to be a problem and cause an upset. I'm therefore not convinced that the order will be Lab/UKIP first and second with everyone else far behind and the LDs bringing up the rear of the big four.

Even if UKIP win, they then have to prove themselves before 2020. Nuttalls will have to get off his lazy arse and do some work. The only thing really pointing to a ukip win is the number of bets put on Ukip, but I think this reflects a few different things this time unlike brexit and trump votes. It wouldn't be a shock if UKIP win, people are scared of a ukip win. It will be getting bets from supporters as well as out of fear who don't support them. Different from before when for the most part only people who really thought it would happen were supporters. Ukip can only win if people turn out on the day to vote in large numbers. It's very possible but needs work. Ukip hype machine will no doubt be in overdrive this week.

Even if Labour win, the margin of victory matters, as does the order if who is behind them. Blair could be positioning him if Labour win as much as if they lose. UKIP getting cained would embolden opposition to Brexit. The Lord's have yet to pass a50 too.

The only result in Stoke that doesn't shake things up is Labour winning by a complete landslide, ukip second and then the LDs way down the field with very few votes.

The word being used on doorsteps is change so I can't see there not being a spanner in the works.

As for Copeland. A loss for Lab there isn't a shock. A Tory win will get their pr machine going and will affect people's perceptions. The LDs getting over 10% would be the real story and would put the wind up the Tories even if they try and make out it's Labour voters.

The Lib Dems have nothing to lose. They lost it all in 2015. That's now a strength. Especially since no one's reporting this.

I'm not worried about either result for that reason. A Labour slideslide with ukip second and LDS right down the field is the ONLY result that doesn't shake up the political landscape. Copeland acts as an amplifier rather than anything hugely significant on its own regardless of the result.

I don't want the Conservatives or ukip to win but it's not a disaster even if they do. Even Corbyn would struggle to survive.

If he did somehow, expect more by-elections and defections and the likeliness of that new party goes up

Few scenarios that can not be potentially turned into positives that come out of Thursday in the longer run if you are liberal leaver or remainer. Some are better than others though and some do offer chances for hard Brexiteers too.

It's one of the biggest days since brexit. Only Trump's win and high court ruling more important. It's more important than Richmond and parliament voting for a50.

It is a tipping point day. It could help or hinder everyone and it's what people do as a direct consequence of Thursday that really matters. Thursday changes the opportunities available though. Which is why it matters.

It's one of the biggest days since brexit. Only Trump's win and high court ruling more important. It's more important than Richmond and parliament voting for a50.

RTB I don't pretend to be as knowledgable as you but I truly don't understand why you think this is such a big deal.

The way I see it most MP's, regardless of policitcal persuasion, rolled over and voted for A50. What difference can a couple of by-elections make?

I put money on a ukip win in Stoke, red. I also put money on trump. It was inspired by a friend who put money on leave early because he was an ardent remainer - the £1000 win cushioned the blow a bit!

RTB if Parliament vote for A50, at least in legal terms, that is absolutely the third biggest thing (after ref vote and Trump) in my opinion

Lib dems winning by elections and county elections might be the only thing which stops the conservatives lurch to become bluekip.

As we saw in2015, many lib dem voters float, but float around the liberal side of the conservatives, and the centrist labour. There are a number of conservative seats which could be very vulnerable to a comparatively small lib dem resurgence (inc Liam fox).

It is also a pretty clear indicator of not happy with the Brexit approach.

Finally, it might just give labour the push they need to replace Corbyn and start the battle to become relevant now rather than after the next election.

I'm not sure that Stoke and Copeland are that big a deal (unless something really shocking happens, like Ukip taking Copeland, or the LDs taking both - neither of which is remotely probable). They don't strike me as constituencies that are particularly representative of the UK in any obvious way, and I know Stoke fairly well as my DH's family comes from there.

Stoke sets the course for UKIP. Plenty of its make or break over it coming from kippers (and kipper members). They have pulled in their people from across the country. They expected to do better in Sleaford and didn't. To put in football terms, they have spent a lot of money and now want to see results. They need a cup win. If they don't get it then the manager is under pressure. They have lots of 'glory Hunter' supporters who have jumped in the band wagon. The EU ref doesn't count. It was an England match. Club performance is more important to die hard club supporters. If they get the cup win, they then have to pull it off next season or the fans will still ditch the manager.

Many people are seeing the by-elections as something of a baramometer on just how toxic Corbyn is to Labour. It's like the football manager in the relegation zone and desperate for a win. Can he save his neck, bounce back and make it to next season? Or will he get the boot at the end of the season ready for fresh challenges for the club?

The LDs are the term used to mid table mediocrity. Fans get down and pissed off and attendance waxes and wanes. But for the most part the mentality there is one of carrying on through adversity and having an attitude of ok, never mind let's try this instead and celebrating the little victories where they happen. The club loyalty thing isn't the same for lib Dems as lib Dems don't have that but the mentality is one against against the tide and people don't necessarily expect the win. On a good cup run, they can produce upsets.

No politics are not the same as football but there are parallels in some of the psychology. After all how the British support anything is part of our national identity and social conscience. It's about expectations and the ability to deliver on those underlying expectations. This affects how many fans turn up at the stadium on a Saturday afternoon.

Still don't get it.

A50 will be triggered before the next GE so even if UKIP does well on Thursday they are limited in how much they can do before a GE.

We know they have support. A huge proportion of the 52% of Leave voters are aligned with UKIPs way of thinking.

Why is them potentially winning a by election such a big deal for Brexit?

Donald Trump appears to have fabricated a terror attack on Sweden.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-last-night-in-sweden-terror-attack-melbourne-florida-campaign-rally-a7588021.html?campaignid=A100&campaignn_type=Email

But actually it looks as though he misread/misheard - it was actually in Sehwan, Pakistan.

It's hard to know which is the worse explanation.

No politics are not the same as football but there are parallels in some of the psychology

And the fact that so many teams are owned by Russian oligarchs, and completely rely on migrant talent to survive (bit like May's britain )
Good analogy, red and very true in so far as labour/ ukip's relationships with politics.

In fact, when this is all over, it'd be great to study the parallels between the culture of certain sports and success of populism. In my life, I've seen football, which was a purely working class sport with the integrity and loyalty that goes with that, become appropriated by different classes and 'players'. A bit like how UKIP's manifesto reads like something that Tony Benn could have written. And Trump's promise of re opening the mines, would have made Kinnock proud, in 1985, if Labour had had the balls to stand with the miners.

Also did anyone notice how national sports reporting on the BBC changed tone in Britain particularly during the last Olympics?

Agree, Stoke will be interesting, and lib dems pragmatism is key right now, as is the pragmatism of the 48% if it's so small a percentage right now.

Because it undermines the narrative being told that there is over whelming support for Brexit and the public are on board. It undermines the idea that Brexit is the most important thing in the eyes of the wider electorate. It makes people question how committed to their vote on 23rd June people are in the long term. Are other things also important and do they need to be taken into account. It askes whether Ukip still have relevance. It puts a quantitative value on Corbyn's ability to deliver.

Tony Blair said this government was about Brexit at any cost. This is important in context of the by-elections. What happens on Thursday has the ability to back that up.

It changes the narrative.

So much about politics is about controlling and directing the narrative. Blair was always exceptional in this regard. It was his ultimate talent in politics. No one bettered him.

It's why his intervention is unsettling people. It's a battle over the narrative.

If people's expectations are not matched in how the story plays out, a problem develops for who has been controlling the narrative previously.

"We will win Stoke because of Brexit and the left behind" say UKIP. The expectation is there. The promise is there. The trust and optimism is there. The excitement is there. What if it doesn't happen? Someone must be to blame. The narrative is flawed. We need another explanation for what just happened.

Blair can spin a good story. This is also why he is seen by some on the remain side as toxic too. It's why he can't lead a charge in the long run. But he sure as hell can command the attention of the press and get people talking about things in a different way than has been going for months.

As I say, it provides an opportunity. It needs someone to pick up the ball and start running with it to work. Anyone who does not want hard Brexit needs to start making these opportunities matter and count.

It needs an event to happen to start such a change IMO. This might not be the best there's been in the scheme of things but there's other things going on as background to this one too. (Trump, Blair, possible other issues with Ukip, creeping worries about employment and creeping comments from people like Nissan).

The hard right can only drive hard Brexit if they keep the narrative. There have been the moments they haven't which forced No 10 back tracks. Which brought a government dodgy fudge, but they needed to make the fudge which was then accepted as the 'opposition' gave up the narrative back to the government again.

That pattern needs to stop. That's how changes in direction in politics happen.

Thursday might end up meaning nothing. It has real potential though. And with every passing one we lose another opportunity to shape Brexit.

As for Copeland. A loss for Lab there isn't a shock. A Tory win will get their pr machine going and will affect people's perceptions. The LDs getting over 10% would be the real story and would put the wind up the Tories even if they try and make out it's Labour voters.

I don't understand your reasoning here at all.

First of all, under any normal circumstances the party of government taking a by-election seat from the part of opposition would be a huge deal. It's only because Labour are so hopeless at the moment and a Conservative victory now seems so certain that it is not really being treated as a big shock.

Secondly, I can't see a bit of a climb in the Lib Dem vote will be that damaging to the Conservatives. Surely, they won't be bothered about ceding some votes to the Lib Dems if they are making equal or even bigger inroads into the Labour vote? Ultimately they can afford to lose a few seats to the Lib Dems if they are taking an even greater number from Labour.

Next Thursday could well be a turning point for the reasons already given. At worst, it will support the status quo, but there is very definitely the potential for the current Tory leadership and/or Corbyn to be unsettled. We have seen shifts toward Remain/LibDems in Remain areas (notably Richmond but also in by elections), but Stoke/Copeland will be the first proper test in a strong Leave constituency.

Bear behind, this has a long time to run. Article 50 is almost certainly revocable so we have another couple of years before anything becomes concrete. Also, even if we 'leave' the EU in a couple of years, it will be a big job to do so even on terms which effectively mirror our current arrangements. That will be both in terms of adoption of all EU legislation into English (and Scottish and Welsh etc) law, but also it is widely thought that we will need in the short term to replicate the current EU detailed trade arrangements we have with the rest of the world. With the political will on both side, it could be relatively straightforward (easier than continuing the path of leaving which would then require years of renegotiation of treaties to try to achieve anything different from what we have at the moment) to rejoin the EU after the next General Election. That is a good thing of course for our country, as it gives us a potential escape route if Leaving does prove to be economically disastrous. And to anticipate Leaver howls, it is also perfectly democratic as it would need to be supported by the people (who will then be more informed).

I don't recommend this course btw. It is risky as the EU could refuse to have us back. We also stand to lose jobs in the meantime and our leaders will not be able to focus properly on important domestic issues.

Stripey, when you say "Article 50 is almost certainly revocable" what do you mean?

Cecile - I believe that most respected legal commentators say it is revocable. I think we might see more of the arguments this week, as I understand that a legal report has been presented to the House of Lords opining that article 50 is revocable.

And, to clarify, that means revocable by the UK alone, with no agreement needed from the EU.

stripey who would want someone in their team that has declared so openly that the team is crap and destined to fail??

IF the eu was to keep the uk in and reverse the article 50, it would be at a high cost for the uk, incl no special arrangements or some arrangements that will ensure it can not hurt the eu anymore than it has already done.
Because atm, with the uk, it feels more like 'yu really don't need ennemies with friend slike this' type of situation.

Thanks for the explanation RTB but I can't help thinking you're overthinking it.

If UKIP win then the spin will be 'this is the will of the people'

If they lose the spin will be 'we already know the will of the people, this was only a by-election'

I wish I had your faith that we have opportunities to shape Brexit. I don't think we do anymore.

Until the consequences of Leaving start to affect people personally, no one on the Leave side is going to question the direction in which TM is taking us and by then it will be too late.

Xpost

What do you think would happen then?
Two years of fighting with the eu, telling everyone how crap they are, that they are there for the kill and to ensure that the uk will suffer A LOT from leaving etc..
And then .... oh btw, lets revoque the article 50 and go back to what we had before, with all the special advantages that the UK had because after all, it wasn't so bad (or because we've just realised that wo the eu, the situation will be much much worse)

I just can not see that happening.

Stripey If the Uk actually leaves, it is VERY unlikely the E27 would just agree it could return.
At least not within the next 30 years and not without full enthusiasm from the UK public.
Rejoining would demand unanimous consent, including from the EU Parliament (which is beyond pissed with UKIP MEP shenanigans & using EU money for it all)

The E27 don't want a reluctant UK that will keep demanding more optouts and then repeat this crisis a few years later.

The UK could rejoin EEA / EFTA if a WTO Brexit goes badly wrong - even that would take negotiations to deal with financial passporting etc and it would require accepting the standard terms, in particular FOM, to avoid years of delay.
Norway is worried the UK would be the belligerant big fish in the tiny EEA / EFTA pond, but they could be persuaded.

In the period between invoking A50 and actually leaving, it might be possible to revoke A50 if it is clear in advance that Brexit would be disastrous.
However, the E27 would have to agree and again, they would want to see that UK public opinion had swung strongly to Remain.

RedandYellowStripe and BigChoc - yes good points. Any new deal between the UK and EU might be worse for us if, as you say, all EU countries agree to it.

My point wasn't that all doors remain equally open forever, but rather that, if we do pursue Brexit, the pro-EU argument and the potential for closer ties with the EU will not go away!

A related point, that I didn't make explicitly above, is that if we do Leave both the EU and EEA, there will almost certainly be a cost for us both financially and in terms of jobs, but the detail of the deals we have with both the EU and the rest of the world are unlikely to change (without a lot of effort!). I suspect that most Leavers will not be busy holding the government to account to change anything so we might well end up paying a lot effectively to maintain the status quo. This is sort of the point made about about big end and small enders - we are kind of arguing over nothing.

Let me suggest an alternative scenario for Thursday:

Conservatives win in Copeland. First by-election win for the party of government in umpteen years. Conservatives in high heaven: clear vindication of Theresa May's leadership and Brexit stance.

UKIP fail miserably in their attempt to take Stoke and their ability to ever become a credible electoral force starts to be questioned. Over the following months the leadership descends into in-fighting and soft UKIPers start to desert the party and return to the Conservatives. This builds an even stronger constituency for hard Brexit within the Conservative party and stiffens Theresa May's resolve.

The loss of Copeland wounds Corbyn but the Stoke victory is enough to convince him to remain as leader. The Labour party limps on as hopeless and divided as ever.

The Lib Dems continue to argue the pro-Remain point of view, but despite a credible third place showing in both by-elections are still as stuck on the margins as ever.

Much as I hope Thursday is some great turning point against hard Brexit, I believe the scenario I've outlined above is as likely as any scenario that leads to a build up in support for soft Brexit.

Fair point indeed.

UKIP fail miserably in their attempt to take Stoke and their ability to ever become a credible electoral force starts to be questioned. Over the following months the leadership descends into in-fighting and soft UKIPers start to desert the party and return to the Conservatives. This builds an even stronger constituency for hard Brexit within the Conservative party and stiffens Theresa May's resolve.

UKIP in Stoke is relying on Labour voters turning - there is not much margin in the Tory vote. So if UKIP turn out to be broken, where do the Labour voters go?

Accepting the rest of what you say - then the Tories turn into a full blown BlueKIP, so what happens to the more moderate Tories? In the south and west they go over to the Lib Dems, where the Liberals were traditionally stronger. What about the north? Where do they go?