Westministenders: Boris and God Knows what next. (I'm all out of ideas!)

[RedToothBrush]

Still a week until Stoke and Copeland. (Labour Hold/Con Gain unless something strange happens) QT is from Stoke next week.

A50 hits the Lords next week. Melania is being lined up to do something for the women. (God help us all).

Will UKIP survive? Will Nuttall survive? Will Labour survive? Will Trump survive? Will CNN survive? Will the Lords survive? Will Theresa May survive a class room of children?

All these questions and more

The E27 will be able to orocess application from UK expats quite quickly.
In contrast, EU nationals living in the UK may face several years delay and stress

Don't disagree with the latter. But I think the former is wildly optimistic in the case of France and Spain. Although ILR and nationality procedures are decentralised in France, which gives more scope for a quick ramp up, the prefectures and courts which will consider these applications aren't, in most cases, staffed for this. When DS got his French citizenship at the end of last year, it was clear from his file number that the local department dealing with him had processed and finalised fewer than 30 cases last year.

Last time DH and I applied for a French resident's permit, in 1998, it took weeks to sort out and DH was initially turned down, only getting his card in 2000 after we married (we married specifically for this reason).

Trump's appropriation of 'the truth' and attacks on the 'dishonest media'.
Seems very similar to May's attack on 'the elite' and appropriation of 'the people's will'.
May doesn't need to attack the media, because there isn't one (present respected company excluded )
And that orchestra going, is beyond sad; cultural vandalism. That happened before too.

Looking forward to hearing from Blair and Branson this week.
Obama's site is thriving.
Something is in the air.

Outside the customs union every single instrument on that van would be subject to a carnet, ......... Currently, we do not know whether a single carnet might cover all EU countries in a tour or whether separate carnets would have to be prepared for each country.

You know what I could see happening here? Theresa May comes back to London in March 2019 gleefully telling us she has an agreement and we leave the EU on say 31st March 2020. Come the 10th April 2020 and an orchestra wants to travel, they ask do they need carnets? They are told, whoops, we don't know, no one discussed that. What happens? The tour is cancelled, and subsequent planned tours are also cancelled.

This adds nothing at all to the discussion, but I feel a bit close to despair with this. I'm not going to stop writing to MPs and reading, but I feel a bit crushed underneath everything.

I'm feeling the same at the moment. Very few people will have voted for leaving the EU in the way that Theresa May now plans to do.

Watch the 'despair'. Examine it and then act skilfully, as Yoda might have said! (or Buddha).
We all have it, but there are so many of us. The Trump thread is thriving with very similar observations. Trump is saying what May is getting trolls to do here.
Something is in the air for this week, and I am sure it includes the Liberal Democrats.

In environmental science there is a lot of discussion about 'tipping points' where something like a population of plants, or a weather system, suddenly tips over from one state of equilibrium to another.

I hope that we can soon see a tipping point in Brexit. This "Brexit at all costs" as Blair put it, is not what the majority want. I hope we tip into a consensus of something much more moderate, to a sensible timescale.

'Change Britain' another Freedom Association type Tea Party ( guess who is closely involved with it ) to attack peers questioning financial viability of brexit.

Expecting anti semitism, homophobia and anti Welsh racism this week:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/18/neil-kinnock-peter-mandelson-among-pro-eu-peers-looking-force/
Road to Brexit | Article 50 and the House of Lords
9 February
Peers table amendments to the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

20 and 21 February
Peers debate the bill during its second House of Lords reading, followed by a vote. Peers are expected to vote through legislation

27 February
Committee stage. First of two scheduled days where peers debate the Bill, proposing and voting on amendments

1 March
Second of two scheduled days where peers debate the Bill, proposing and voting on amendments

7 March
Report stage and third reading. If passed without amendment, the Bill can receive royal assent. If not, it is passed back to the Commons for MPs to agree the changes

9 and 10 March
Theresa May meets with EU leaders at the European Council in Brussels. At this stage she could formally notify them of Britain’s intention to trigger Article 50

13, 14, 15 March
Any amendments to the bill passed in the Lords are considered in the House of Commons, as the Government will try to overturn them

National-March-to-Parliament. Unite for Europe National march to Parliament March 25th 2017

The March is too late, I think, we should have done it before the Bill was in the Commons :(

Exactly what I just thought Cecile

I know, Cecile it is isn't it.

Wondering if Putin can finish off what opposition to Trump and brexit has started, and not in a good way. DT leading on plot to overthrow Montenegro's government by assassinating Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic last year, Putin has distanced himself from Trump already. When Europe and US reach critical melt down, he will be straight in.

When the March was planned, it was assumed that TM would delay for as long as she could but still meet her deadline. Now we now that she is rushing as fast as she can, and it's too late to change. It won't stop me marching.

The poll tax was already in place when the march took place, if anything, it galvanised opposition.
I'll be there.

Cecile I totally agree with that Andrew Rawnsley article, although it scares the life out of me. Democracy can't function without a credible opposition.

They want 'blood on the streets', alluded to in that article, that's why the peaceful Women's marches scared the bejesus out of them. Then they can have the sort of military law they imposed on NI 30 years ago.
Peaceful is frightening for them.

I'm firmly of the opinion that we should be campaigning hard for an EEA / EFTA Brexit, which would cause the least disruption, pain & cost.
To just disregard the referendum at this stage is impossible politically and diverts resources from the fight for a sane Brexit instead of the doctrinaire hard right version.

< ducks >

Public opinion won't swing significantly in the Remain direction before 2019 unless either a "disordered / WTO" Brexit becomes imminent and business deserts en masse before the cliff
OR May stands up and says she's tried to make Brexit work but it's impossible without great pain (this may be her supersecret emergency fallback plan)

Otherwise, Bregret, if any, would be from 2020 onwards, i.e. too late & suck it up, whether you voted for this shit or not.

I hope an opposition coalesces from somewhere, although I can't see it at the moment. In the end I hope that we see the extreme Tory right wingers as being the traitors to the country that I personally feel they are. That's Redwood, IDS, Johnson, Fox, Davis, Gove, Villiers. Redwood must have been narked the other night to have been pressed into going canvassing only for the Tory candidate to lose the seat.

(Feelings are OK, on which to make decisions, aren't they? We are now in the process of leaving the EU because we didn't feel sovereign.)

I can't see May standing up and saying she's tried to make Brexit work. I think once she has decided on a course of action, she stubbornly pursues it. So she's fallen in with what her extreme right wing want, and won't stop now. Only being removed from Office will stop her. This could happen - the Tories were quick to stab Thatcher in the back when it suited them. They enjoy a good bloodletting every now and again, so maybe one is overdue.

sane Brexit
But what about the people's vote for the mad one, BCF?
It was a vote for 'you know what', and it's difficult to talk about the 'you know what' without the 'you know who' getting a bit antsy.

It's like the Big enders' war against the 'Little enders' in Gulliver's travels. (international war over which end of a boiled egg to crack)
It's not really about eggs/EU.

It's like the Big enders' war against the 'Little enders' in Gulliver's travels. (international war over which end of a boiled egg to crack)
It's not really about eggs/EU

Yes I think this is about right.

woman Those marches against the poll tax were so vigorously supported because people were already suffering significant financial cost, not some disputed future cost.

However, this march would show that the 48% Remain haven't gone away and remain a force to be reckoned with in future byelections and the GE.

I just think that as well as showing Remain numbers & enthusiasm, efforts should be concentrated on campaigning for EEA / EFTA, which is a difficult but achievable political aim

Peregrina I may be naive, but I'm hoping that May decided to give Brexit her absolute best shot, BUT that if she sees no outcome but real disaster, won't drive the UK off a cliff.
Voters will accept pain, especially in the absence of an effective opposition, but noone voted to crash down a cliff.
So she might prefer political embarassment to avoid Tory wipeout for a generation.

So she might prefer political embarassment to avoid Tory wipeout for a generation.

I don't think she will personally, but I do think the 'men in suits' will come for her and tell her the game is up because Tory party success is more important than the leader. Cue another tearful departure from Downing Street.

EEA / EFTA, which is a difficult but achievable political aim
Absolutely agree, and the 3 million getting their human rights upheld.

Don't share your view of TM's political selflessness. But her limited world view may be her downfall.

However, this march would show that the 48% Remain haven't gone away and remain a force to be reckoned with in future byelections and the GE.

Some of this is being tapped into by the LibDems. The story about LibDem successes in Local Elections is not being told. So far it's 31 wins and 3 loses - one loss in Scotland under PR, and two the other night in England to a group protesting about housing. The worst losses have gone to the Tories, then UKIP. Labour has held up reasonably well. You wouldn't know any of this from what is being reported in the press, where it's all how badly Labour is doing, how wonderful the Tories and UKIP are.

I think you're right Peregrina on lib dems. Paddy Ashdown was eloquent and persuasive pre ref.

Big I'm not so optimistic. I think TM would have jonissue driving the UK to a cliff and let it fall all for retaining our right to control immigration (and to make the UK great again).

Our salvation will come from a better organised opposition (and yes TB is who he is but if it means some sort of opposition, it's better than nothing TBH) and from the inside of thé Tories who will not see with a very good eye all the seats in local elections going to the LD instead of them.

My fear though is that all that will happen AFTER we have left and the real struggle has started (before that, I'm not sure that people will really feel the pinch unless the pound is diving down again)

I absolutely agree with you, BigChoc.