Westministenders: Boris and The By-Elections

[RedToothBrush]

You lot post too fast!

A50 has made it out of the Commons without any amends. Its on its way to the Lords, but this week is half term, so in theory not much going on (in the UK at least). It hit the Lords on the 20th where it might not get such an easy ride. The Lords will not (and CAN NOT) stop brexit or frustrate it. But the numbers are in perhaps more favour of amendments if they choose to go that way, than the Commons. This would throw the bill back to the Commons. This is pretty reasonable.

In the meantime its 12 days to go until the Copeland and Stoke Central By-Elections.

Leave.Eu think UKIP have Stoke in the bag. They think there will be a 33% turnout. I think a turnout that high is the land of fantasy. Paul Nuttalls who was at Hillsborough is now a devout Stokie who has lived there all his life. Except of course he isn't.

Copeland looks like it will go Conservative. Its theirs to throw away. It would be the first victory for a sitting government in a by-election since 1983 if they make it. They intend to use a victory as another argument for a 'mandate'. But have they managed to drop a nuclear booboo?

One more Question. What are the chances of this thread making it to the 23rd?!

Forgive my ignorance, but could turkey join the EU as we it?
There's a mind fuck 🤔😳

leave it

Paul Nuttalls of the UKIPs again. More from that interview where he admits he didn't loose close personal friends at Hillsborough....

The article on his website had been removed.

The trouble is that what was on his website is apparently a direct quote from Nuttalls himself and the BBC also published and its still available in all its glory here:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-14562573
Hillsborough files: Cabinet office appeals against disclosure

What's more Nuttalls said in the interview today that he doesn't talk to The Sun as a result of Hillsborough.

The trouble is that Buzzfeed seem to think this is ALSO a lie:

www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-admits-he-didnt-lose-friends-at-hil?utm_term=.pudzXDbqp#.jsDRb8zln
UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall Admits He Didn’t Lose Friends At Hillsborough Despite PreviousClaims

“I don’t speak to The Sun, I don’t give interviews to The Sun. It is utterly appalling that this is being thrown at me now,” Nuttall told the radio station.

However, BuzzFeed News has now found multiple instances where The Sun has reported Nuttall as giving direct quotes to the newspaper, including as recently as December 2016 and January 2017.^

I wonder how this will go down in Liverpool. He might WANT to move to Stoke from Bootle at this rate.

Wrt the customs union, my later question was wrt being wholly a member of the customs union - which would preclude trade deals with other countries for all those goods which the customs union covers, but which wouldn't be needed if we were wholly a member.

Forgive my ignorance, but could turkey join the EU as we Leave it?

David Cameron, failed to make the point at the EU referendum but I will make it now.

France have it enshrined into law that Turkey can only join the EU if it is approved by a referendum. If the French public reject it, then its effectively vetos Turkey joining.

How do you think that would go?

France are not the only ones who have a veto on Turkey joining either.

Fuck you David Cameron.

I feel so sorry for the people of Stoke central - what appalling labour and ukip candidates. I'd like to think this will result in a thrilling victory for the lib dems but won't hold my breath.

Brexiteers are definitely cavaliers - wrong but wromantic according to 1066 and all that.

badders the likelihood of Turkey that quickly joining are minimal. They're said to be quite a way off. Unless the EU chose to fast track them, but France and Germany weren't keen on that before ironically Cameron was all for it

I don't even know what to say re Nutalls and Hillsborough. What is it with these far right types and their obsession with making up events or pretending to be at them?

To be honest, I can see the final outcome most likely being:

• Out of the EU as a full member
• out of the single market
• wholly a member of the customs union
• a spec deal re free movement of Irish/NI citizens only

This may not be the full Brexit that hard Leavers want, or the fullest possible union that hard Remainers want, but that's where the politicking comes in - the politicians will have to do their thing & 'sell' that to the country as a good outcome.

i.e.
Sell the non-EU membership, and non-single market membership to the 49%
& sell the customs union membership to the 52%.

It would be a solution that removes the need for long & convoluted trade deals, protects NI & Ireland as much as poss, whilst still addressing the FOM aspect.
Services such as finance etc would be a problem obvs, but as the EU does not have the capability and attraction that UK does as a financial hub it would make no sense for the EU to not come to some sort of spec deal wrt that.

re Nuttall and Hillsborough. Of all the things to misrepresent...

Agree red on living arrangements for the brightest and best.
Hashi they are moral and intellectual bankrupts, all of them.

What our women MPs are dealing with:

But suppose that someone had told me back then that 30 years on I would be receiving stuff like this: “Pathetic useless fat black piece of shit Abbott. Just a piece of pig shit pond slime who should be fucking hung (if they could find a tree big enough to take the fat bitch’s weight”). I think that even the young, fearless Diane Abbott might have paused for thought
.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/14/racism-misogyny-politics-online-abuse-minorities

How would that affect regulations, Semi?
It's a genuine question as I work in a heavily regulated industry (clinical trials). Currently we work to and are tied into European directives, regulations and bodies. Ditto many areas of Pharma and medical device manufacturing. If we left the single market but stayed in the customs union, would we be effectively removing ourselves from those regulatory bodies? Would we be able to establish a system where we automatically track and tie-in with EU regulation? I'm asking because I genuinely have no idea- we have been given very little in terms of what will happen to our industries as part of Brexit.

My major concern at the moment is that if we any way move away from current EU regulations, the bureaucracy needed will become so onerous that the uk will cease to be an attractive place to run trials or manufacture devices.

Honestly nothing surprises me re ukip anymore. I don't feel sorry for stoke. You get what you pay for.
Regarding semis points; so no one gets what they want and our global standing is tarnished irreparably?
Cosmic 😒

.....and don't get me started on spam face cameron!!

I don't know Bolshy.

I've no experience or knowledge of anything like that - I'm just making broad assumptions on what I've read & seen so far.

I genuinely can't see a full & hard Brexit though.

The UK has to be able to be able to go into negotiations with complete free reign though, which is why I believe it is right for the A50 bill to go through unchallenged (although debated, with all the valid points raised as they have been, and will be in the Lords).

I do believe that there will be big compromises on the full Brexit, as well as compromises on the harder Remain viewpoint - but that's where TM etc politicking will come into play - making the final outcome palatable to the broader middle ground.

Wrt movement of goods between NI/Ireland & also by extension of goods between the island of Ireland & the rest of UK, remaining wholly within the customs union would solve the border problem (ignoring movement of people)?

I think this is correct, but

• it wil require goodwill on the part of the EU - I don't think its something we can just choose to do, it would require ratification by the 27, who would probably demand a price.

• what happens to services?

• the UK remains subject to the ECJ; red line for brexiters?

• we would have to accept EU regulations on goods but with no influence over those rules. Inside the EU of course we help to make those regulations; in the EEA we would have some influence; in the CU we would be purely rule-takers. Again, potential red-line. We would have less sovereignty over trade inside the CU (but outside the EU) than we have now.

Not nit-picking here; it may be that remaining in the CU for at least a transitional period is the answer. But right now I think it would be very hard for the ideological brexiters to swallow.

Ladbrookes Politics is trolling Nuttalls.

And Farage is not a happy bunny.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-stoke-ukip-duffy_uk_58a34272e4b03df370daac5d?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004
Nigel Farage Refuses To Campaign Anymore For Paul Nuttall In Stoke Amid Splits At Top Of Ukip
The former Ukip leader is not happy with how the campaign is being run

Lisa Duffy – who unsuccessfully stood to be party leader last summer – was secretly recorded by her campaign manager making claims about Farage’s personal life, which became the basis of a controversial book about Ukip.

Farage is considering suing Duffy over her comments, and was appalled to see her at the Victoria Hall in Stoke on February 6 when he addressed hundreds of local residents.

A source close to the former Ukip leader says he holds Patrick O’Flynn – Nuttall’s closest advisor – responsible for Duffy’s involvement.

Ukip MEP O’Flynn employs Duffy and her husband Peter Reeve as assistants in the European Parliament.

The source said: “Nigel told Paul he needed to get professionals in his team running Stoke. This week he is in Strasbourg as he does not want to be around Lisa Duffy after the false allegations she made up.

I've seen several pictures of Lisa Duffy out campaigning in Stoke. She is quoted by the Sentinel as being Nuttall's campaign manager.

Its apparently Ok for Nuttall to make up lots of stuff and then delete it from his website (like the time he said he wanted to privatise the NHS too), its Ok for Trump to say god knows what just about everyone but when Lisa Duffy says something about Farage look at all the flying toys.

“The Labour candidate is so bad this election is Paul’s to lose, but he has been hijacked by people who do not have the skills they think they have.”

Ahhh and there you have it. UKIP are worried...

This week, the signs that UKIP might not do it are:

1. Campaigning at a Mosque then the immigration spokesman posting a racist tweet
2. The Leave.EU poll which said UKIP are leading (its a way to try and motivate people to vote. They over egged it and it might have the opposite effect).
3. The rumour of the postal ballot.
4. Hillsborough

I have seen ONE sign that he might have a chance. That's the number of bets placed on UKIP winning in Stoke. Which is not dissimilar to Brexit / Trump. If all those people who placed bets are in Stoke and decide its a way to try to get some money then yeah, there's a fair chance they might win.

Thing is, this looks more like UKIP preparing for a loss. The fall guys are being lined up for the firing squad. Perhaps that's the plan though. Lull people into a false sense of security.

Kevin Schofield ‏*@PolhomeEditor*

Labour pal said Stoke was "too close to call" this morning. That's surely changed after the Nuttall/Hillsborough stuff?

Not sure I agree with this...

The Nuttall stuff could end up like Trump. It could also mean that other voters breathe a sign of relief and think its all over for UKIP so don't vote afterall.

Plus, you'd be forgiven for thinking that only UKIP and Labour are standing candidates and are the only parties that have a chance of winning.

That's not what the numbers suggest. A win on a 33% turnout needs maybe 5000 - 6000 votes in a fairly close four way spilt. If the turnout is lower it really does become anyone's game.

Does anyone in stoke care about lies about Hillsborough?
If he was campaigning in Bootle he wouldn't garner a single vote....but stoke?
And as we have seen nationally and globally recently - despicable behaviour is no bar to high public office!!

It's a genuine question as I work in a heavily regulated industry (clinical trials). Currently we work to and are tied into European directives, regulations and bodies. Ditto many areas of Pharma and medical device manufacturing. If we left the single market but stayed in the customs union, would we be effectively removing ourselves from those regulatory bodies?

My OH works in the same area as you (he translates regulatory and medical documents). From what I understand, leaving the EU means relinquishing our position on regulatory bodies - for eg the EMA will relocate - regardless of CU membership (which is only about trade). If we want to trade freely with the EU we become rule takers not rule makers.

Not sure yet what will happen to DH's work, but a lot of what he does is for the US so hopefully there will still be a market for specialist translators...

I'd love an LD win in stoke...your info gives me hope, red!

Oh god. Banks is going after Hillsborough big time on twitter.

Brian Reade ‏***@BrianReade*
If Nuttall was at Hillsborough he clearly didn't learn its most powerful lesson: Every right-wing gobshite who lies about it gets found out

Arron Banks ‏******@Arron_banks
I'm sick to death of hearing about it. It was a disaster and that's it, not some sort of cultural happening

Brian Reade ‏***@BrianReade
@Arron*_banks sorry you're sick to death hearing about 96 deaths. And 'some sort of cultural happening' eh? There's UKIP in all its ugliness

The Affable Engineer @AffableEngineer
The political capital people have made from the Hillsborough disaster is disgusting @BrianReade @Arron_banks

Arron Banks ‏******@Arron_banks
Yep

Tim Montgomerie ن ‏**@montie**

"Let's attack those who suffered at Hillsborough rather than face up to our UKIP leader's false claims about Hillsborough"

There are a few things that spring to mind here.

Paul Nuttall was still a member of the Conservatives when they were trying to cover up Hillsborough in 2002. He didn't see a problem then. He tried to make it a political point in 2011 as a stick to beat the government with. He suddenly became anti-establishment.

Now it is anti-establishment to criticise the Hillsborough Campaign. Well that's seems to be Bank's approach to it, as he's 'sick of hearing about it'.

As I say, it could be a Trump type move. Be as offensive as possible. Vilify the justice group. Get publicity. Why do this?

Well apart from lulling people in to a false sense of security, so they don't see UKIP as a threat next week, I wonder if there is something else here.

Hillsborough only got justice because of the Human Rights Act. Its a really good argument to defend Human Rights against abuses of power by the State. If you start to undermine that, and label the Justice group in this way, does that undermine support for the group and in turn undermine the best argument for the Human Rights Act in a way that 'the masses' can easily understand and be sympathetic about.

I think its a case of Nuttalls getting badly caught out by his big gob so there is some damage limitation going on.

The way that Trump does this, is to lash out and attack the group that is the victim in the first place. Nuttall did it partly earlier when he said that his family were being victimised. Now Banks has piled on.

Trump made every seeming disaster, into an advantage in the same way.

Indeed Banks has carried on

Arron Banks @Arron_banks
if a policemen opens a gate trying to help and makes a bad decision it's an accident. As for a cover up it was the 80's.

Tim Montgomerie ‏**@montie**
@Arron_banks You really have no shame at all. Thoroughly Trumpified.

Incidentally, people are agreeing with Banks...

Just when you think politics here can't get worse, look at the USA take a deep breathe and remember, THATS how bad its going to get here.

And it will. Even this is not rock bottom. We have some way to go.

I do not believe the Brexit cabal have any intention of full membership of the CU.

May set out the CU objectives in her speech:

I know my emphasis on striking trade agreements with countries outside Europe has led to questions about whether Britain seeks to remain a member of the EU’s Customs Union. And it is true that full Customs Union membership prevents us from negotiating our own comprehensive trade deals.

Now, I want Britain to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements. But I also want tariff-free trade with Europe and cross-border trade there to be as frictionless as possible.

That means I do not want Britain to be part of the Common Commercial Policy and I do not want us to be bound by the Common External Tariff. These are the elements of the Customs Union that prevent us from striking our own comprehensive trade agreements with other countries. But I do want us to have a customs agreement with the EU.

Whether that means we must reach a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the Customs Union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it, I hold no preconceived position. I have an open mind on how we do it. It is not the means that matter, but the ends.

Ie - no to the common external tariff as I mentioned above, and no to anything that hampers international trade deals - which leaves very little

The last para is where we enter Unicornland where the UK retains some aspects of the CU that suit us and ditch all the bits we don't like. I think that will go the same way as the single market.

I cannot see the EU agreeing to this self-serving hotchpotch.

Badders, I think a LD win in Stoke is unlikely. It requires a 'perfect storm'. HOWEVER I do think UKIP's chances are generally over stated too.

I think the LDs could produce a result that surprises people though. I certainly don't rule out them coming second. I'm not sure who that would leave in third place though, if that were to happen.

I also don't think the Conservative vote should be totally discounted either. It has the potential to through another spanner in the works.

Its funny, UKIP are said to be worried about a win in Stoke too. They think it could be the straw to get rid of Corbyn, which would not be good for them.

Maybe that's the real reason Labour have stood a donkey and failed to check his twitter feed. To use him to get rid of Corbyn.

Yep 😞😞

If Banks isn't careful he'll go the same way as the Sun in Liverpool.